Originally Posted by
Jonty
The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.
This is deceiving.
Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.