@severe clear

newer variant can, it seems there was an update in 1984 which increased the ceiling for ~26K feet (from 46 to 72), I have read on a russian forum that the system they operated was "more than 30 years old" so I guess it was the older missile

Buk missile system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

not that wikipedia is the most reliable source but they should be right here


@Duralumin
"I'm surprised that no comparison is being made with the Vincennes shoot down of the Iran Air Airbus. The Vincennes captain had all the information including the transponder squawk yet he still shot."

that shows that highly trained professionals also make mistakes, however this is a bit different case as it involves more sides that could be labeled responsible, including those who improperly trained them and actually enabled them to use the weapon and those who had the info about the weapon and their trigger-happiness and still didn't close that airspace

@wasthatit
"Are the 'rebels' this incompetent?"

unfortunately they are...

@Xulu
"I'd like to see the UN move in to secure the area. Then if the rebels have a problem with that, we can destroy them - and if the Russians have a problem with that, then tough luck, they aren't going to declare war on the UN."

heh, there is a small problem..Russians can veto any UN decision

As a buyer of Aviation Hull & Liability insurance, Underwriters rarely if ever classify overflight as "War Zones"

The usual rules are if you're flying into a war zone (or what may be considered a former war zone), that is material and depending upon where it is there will be an additional charge. There's no additional charge or restriction to fly into Israel at the moment.

For overflight, so long as the commercial airlanes are open and in using them you're not in contravention of any EU or UN sanctions, there has historcially been no consideration by Underwriters. That may of course have changed as of last Thursday (but we have not been asked any questions about the routes our airlines operate)

Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226996517311

Well let me assure you it does not suit Australia. With 38 dead, and so far not respect shown, indeed indifference to the distressing scenes, this country is far from amused. The Ukraine has requested we send Crash Investigators, they are either innocent, or sure most of the parts needed to make a judgement are now on someone's mantel piece. We would like our dead back, and we would like the perpetrators brought to justice. And it is unlikely we will give up until we get both. We are a small country but a determined one. Putin is going to find us very irritating.

The first picture is a piece of fuselage crown skin between the cockpit and the first door. The others are not as easily identified.

@cwatters
Problem is, this cannot be confirmed at all from horse's mouth. See OSCE website:

Ukraine, a developing story | OSCE

I could have missed something, but it appears that members of Special Monitoring Mission for Ukraine (that was already there prior to the crash - so they are not crash investigators who know what they are doing or have any equipment) went to the scenes and initially were not allowed to walk around all of the debris field. Then the media, in their usual manner, "improved" upon the story, one copying from another and spicing it up to arrive all sorts of "outrageous" stories. What is your source for OSCE team of 80 people with transport? What was the transport?

OSCE latest news release on the subject is a call for, well "doing something":

Meanwhile, Putin in his speech calls for a real international investigative team on the site, not some unequipped half-assed observers. Again, it probably is also BS, but it is interesting to compare the BS from both sides.

You would think that internet would have prevented from playing the old propaganda spice-up news stories games.

Volume,
Surely they are all of the same part, but it has been turned over in each photograph.

I notice that in the media there's a constant reiteration of the fact that the use of the Buk missile system (about which I know nothing more than I read on a daily basis here and elsewhere) would require expert assistance from specialists in, or from, the Russian military. This is constantly quoted as undeniable evidence of direct Russian complicity in the act itself. Their ongoing supervision of the insurgency is a given whereas their direct participation is yet to be conclusively demonstrated.

As has been argued previously in this thread there are certain to be many people in Ukraine, especially the eastern Russian speaking region, who were or are current or former members of the Soviet, Russian or Ukrainian military. Amongst whom there are sure to be people trained in the use of this system.

Now I believe, as probably do the majority of spectators to this tragedy, that the evidence of culpability emerged very rapidly during the first few hours after the event, well before the various "interested parties" were able to start manipulating the news in order to serve their various agendas. So I find it very odd that all the politicos from the "victim" countries plus the USA keep insisting that the mere fact of the Buk system's use is de facto evidence of direct Russian participation in the missile's use. This is perfectly possible, quite obviously, but it seems to me to be very shaky as "evidence" and I'm puzzled as to why it's become so prominent.

This is REALLY, REALLY bad news. The broader context is that Ukrainian govermental forces seem to have started an offensive on Donetsk.

I guess from a military strategy standpoint in make perfect sense to use the window of confusion, but it would be really bad news for the investigation.

Anyone with a rough map of Donetsk vs the crash site?

Found it: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...mh17.html?_r=0

Read your link and then post.

Heavy gun fire at train station , yes, but in Donetsk, not where the bodies are...

Also fighting and shelling in Donetsk, not at the crash site.

This is an interesting article by David Cenciotti. He is a journalist with good knowledge on military aviation.

According to an authoritative source, two Su-27 Flankers escorted the Malaysian Boeing 777 minutes before it was hit by one or more missiles.
The Aviationist » ?All flights, including Malaysian B777, were being escorted by Ukrainian Su-27 Flanker jets over Eastern Ukraine?

A quote:
Anyone who flew in this area ever noticed being escorted?

Reading the Dodger-16 post above I can understand his reasoning but if we always stand back from world events and shrug our shoulders then we allow people to freely get away with unsocial activities.

Yes we should also question the death roll in the Middle East etc. but this is a forum of people with an interest in flying so it is obvious our chatter should be around flight related subjects.

There is one factor about flying incidents in the 'we could have been there' attitude which doesn't apply to disasters across the world happening to 'other people' - this might be a poor reflection on us but it is a fact.

What Did US Spy Satellites See in Ukraine?

the three links are certainly all the same part, but they are not the same as the main image.

For those interested, detailed description of BUK SAM Systems and the corresponding A-A missiles.
9K37/9K37M1/9K317 Buk M1/M2 / SA-11/17 Gadfly/Grizzly / C????????? ???????? ???????? ???????? 9?37/9?317 ??? ?/?1/?2

However, some discussions are misleading, assuming that a whole anti-aircraft complex has been involved in MH017 shot-down together with a complicated chain of command. In it's logic any single isolated unit (TELAR - launcher and radar) is capable of acquiring, targeting and engaging targets individually.
Individual units (erector/launcher) may be fitted with own radars, but IMO that's not mandatory for a successful launch against a big surface rectilinear-track and constant relatively low speed target. The missile carrier is equipped also with an IR seeker and an electro-optical sighting system by which means the crew may initiate a launch without radar aid - the so-called SACLOS logic (semi-automatic command to line-of-sight). By those optical means, as well, in case of radar jam the crew can track the target and up-link corrections to the missile through radio-command. On top, both SA 11/17 are equipped with onboard radars (monopulse semiactive or active - the newest type - radar homing seeker). It's not clear they are 'fire-and-forget' - capable missiles (like the ex-Soviet 'cousin' SA-19) but it's not unusual for such equipment once airborne to seek, lock-on and track a target on its own.
Adding that the shot-down occurred in daylight and good visibility is plausible that the launch was initiated in a rush, at sight, with no proper preparation and id.

A thing easy to have in hand (as they are in the ukrainian official hands) for the international investigators are the ATC records (conversations and radar records)
That's the first thing that investigators examine in a crash case ... long befrore examining the black boxes
What happend with this crash?
Not a word of those evidences !

They have been progressively taking back the region, bit by bit. That is why they were flying transports -- to supply their isolated pockets of regained territories. It was those transports which became separatist targets, and for which MH17 was mis-identified.

Russia cannot openly help the rebels at this point, so it may be all over fairly soon.

I say again, there are no Spanish ATCO working in Ukraine. and can't be at all. theory about escorting by fighters is also stupid. Radar and voice recordings from ATC won't help for investigation. MH17 disappeared from screen during frequency change to Rostov's sector. other traffic flying behind saw nothing (both TCAS and visually).

I think your error is to assume they were actually "targeting" anything. I'd suggest they were the same sort of untrained, undisciplined thugs who are to be seen spraying the countryside randomly with fire from their AK47s in "celebration" in third world conflicts everywhere.

New expensive toy supplied by Uncle Vlad. Minimal training, no discipline and no actual understanding of the world outside their immediate brain-washed surroundings. I doubt they were educated enough to realise that international flights take place over the little bit of disputed territory they call home. In their mind, they are fighting a "war" against a government that has aircraft. They don't have aircraft, therefore anything flying above them must be the enemy.

In the final analysis, the ultimate responsibility is with those that gave them these toys and encouraged them to use them. Unfortunately it is the way of the world that they are never held accountable.

Some of us used to call this doctrine "squawk or die" :eek: but the squawk in question was Mode IV.
I am sure most people can understand

1. Why civ airliners are not going to be equipped with Mode IV.
2. How an open IFF squawk can be spoofed.

This means that civ airliners flying near dangerous areas require procedural means of airspace management to avoid danger. The Malaysian flight, and the others who were flying through that airspace volume, assessed a low but not zero risk, I would guess. Well, the "not zero" risk paid off, as they say in Vegas. :{

Lord, please don't make me flash back to real world airspace volume management in real life ... some of my worst headaches came from that. :(

Lots of detailed photos of the debris:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...57645790319631

PVMW

The only problem with your Dads army theory is that it takes a lot of skill and training to operate these missiles so someone with those skills had to be assisting Captain Mannering?

That does not preclude a mistaken target or overexcitement fogging the proper identification of that target with tragic results and a political self goal with damage rectification which is what appears to be happening

pace

Not 2 SU-27's, but SU-25 according to Russians: Ukrainian Su-25 fighter detected in close approach to MH17 before crash - Russian military

Briefing of the Russian MoD 2-star general and a traffic control person:



They do not state anything for sure, but raise some questions on some strange things happened on that day/time.

1. The activity of Ukrainian radars (including those of air defense systems) dramatically increased on that day.
2. There was a military aircraft (supposedly Su-25) flying in a close vicinity (3-5 km) of MH-17 before and shortly after the Boeing was shot.
3. MH-17 deviated its course to the north getting out of the pre-defined corridor shortly before the trouble.
4. One of the Ukrainian BUK launch complexes that were relocated to the area a few days before the tragedy, was additionally moved to a new place, very close to the line between the army and the rebels. Immediately after the tragedy it was moved back.
Etc.

Anyway, there is an English translation, those interested may listen and watch.

From our data in the area this appears to be true. In the last couple of minutes of the flight MH17 seems to have changed heading by about 14 degrees. FR24 agrees but with a smaller HDG change.

Su-25?
 

A 0.82 Mmo Frogfoot with a service ceiling of 7 km was in "close approach" to a 777 at FL330?

Sukhoi Company (JSC) - Airplanes - Military Aircraft - Su-25Ê - Aircraft performance

Carlos
 

Here is Carlos back in May 2014. Perhaps someone can translate? Is he claiming to be an ATCO in the video?



He obviously has history with the state sponsored Russia Today so perhaps his social media was an easy target for the Russian Internet Troll Army?

The following is a google translation of the video description. Is Carlos playing them along as to his job description or is it a case of a misinterpretation?

What a tragedy this is.

The media are in such a frenzy to get the latest useless nugget of convenient information / disinformation out that suits their agenda (on both sides) that they seem to be missing much.

While I'm not saying it wasn't a missile, other than US satellite information is there anything to suggest it was a missile? Surely the launch of a missile of the type which was supposedly responsible would have been noticed by someone / something other than a US satellite?

What are the hard fact's about the fighter escort?

Those apparently responsible for the launch were drunk as the supposed launch site was littered with beer cans - can a satellite differentiate between a soft drink can, an aerosol can & a beer can? If it can, how does the presence of beer cans prove that those who launched the missile were drunk?

I suspect that the Western media may have overplayed the brutality & ignorance of the locals & rebels - the story at one point on Sunday was that they were running about pissed, letting rounds off & blocking / intimidating investigators. Yet at the same time there are images of rescue workers clearing the site of bodies & attempting to bring some order - the widely shown image of the rebel(?) soldier holding up a cuddy toy has been used out of context so many times it's just sickening.....

300 people have needlessly lost their lives & the media on all sides are turning it into something like an election run-up funfair, complete with spin doctors & B.S.

He doesn't say that at all, at least not in the link that you posted. He simply quotes his source as saying that if Su-27s were monitoring/shadowing the 777 as it flew over eastern Ukraine, the Buk operators may have mistaken it for a Ukrainian AF aircraft.

He (Cenciotti) also helpfully informs us that:

Really?

2 ULMFlyer

Regarding Su-25:
1. 7000 m is a "static ceiling", "dynamic ceiling" is much higher, at least 10 km is quite reachable.
2. To release an air-to-air P-60 missile there is no need to equalize the altitude with the target aircraft.

However, it looks quite unlikely that 777 could be completely destroyed by such a small missile as P-60. Unless it exploded directly in front of the cockpit making the crew inoperable instantly plus resulting in massive cabin depressurization....

The picture shows SIA351, not MAS17 in close proximity to another target.
Also a flight squawking 3416 at FL400 on opposite path.
it seems the Russians are trying to argue that Ukraine fighters have hidden behind the civil airplanes.

Russian Press Conference on the story
 

So far, it has only been played around EE, and not the West.

Russia says they have evidence that Ukraine did it and so does the US since US surveillance satellite was passing over Ukraine at that very time.

SU-25 service ceiling
 

It's already said, but I put some emphasis on this:

"Service ceiling (without external ordnance and stores), km 7"

(Sukhoi's official website Sukhoi Company (JSC) - Airplanes - Military Aircraft - Su-25Ê - Aircraft performance)

With ordnance this ac is simply unable to climb further. I agree, (perhaps) it doesn't need to climb to 330 to fire a missile at a 330 target (I don't know the radar angle capabilities, but keeping in mind it's primary role is ground attack I really doubt it's able to track targets at a high angle), but for what reason the Ukrainians would have used a SU-25 for such dreadful mission and not a SU-27, a SU-24 or a MIG-29 instead?!

That's rich, considering who posted it, and the user name. ;) How soon we forget. England was a signatory to the guarantee of Ukraine's sovereignty when USSR/CIS broke up, remember? :}

The points you made on energy strategy and political moves in that realm are well put, and valid even today. One of the sound bytes on this side of the pond that got a lot of play was "drill baby drill" with an eye to greater reliance on domestic sources rather than foreigners ... and of course our domestic oil lobby having an eye on jobs and balance sheets. :ok: Follow the money.

How does that tie into this shoot down? I find it hard to believe that Vlad and his crew are directly involved in this event, as he doesn't need any more bad press than he already has. The narrative being suggested, that the more pro-Russian faction in Ukraine needed to establish that it owns the air volume over the territory it holds dear (SAM's are a fine air denial means) makes much more sense on a lot of levels. That faction isn't in a position to give a crap about large muscle movement energy policy, what they want is to be in a political sphere more to their liking ... which looks a bit more toward Moscow than Kiev. That's the whole point of their uprising: they don't like what's going on at the highest levels of government in Ukraine.

Lon More: Yep, nothing subtle about that move.

sadPole, thank you for the post with the KLM tracks etc. Sometimes, a picture paints a thousand words.

Who's fooling who?
 

Nothing really makes sense to me here unless it was intentional or a false flag operation. If it was the rebels by mistake it will eventually come out, if it was the Ukrainian military by mistake it will probably also come out, and if it was the Russians shooting over the border it will certainly come out. I mean if it was an accident - whoever to blame - the only rational thing would be to come straight and apology! It has happen before and unfortunately it can happen again.

I don’t get it :rolleyes: Just hope a proper investigation can get started.

It seems that no-one fired at MH17 - not the Kiev government, nor the pro-Russia rebels, nor Russia itself. It would therefore be in the interests of all three parties to start examining the wreckage for evidence of mechanical failure, bomb, etc. (After all, hasn't the world been on high alert recently for warnings about a plane being targeted?)

The fact that all three aren't co-operating to get investigators to the site as quickly as possible suggests to me that not one of them think it was mechanical failure or a bomb. Why are they all so sure?

http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images...11q9o4/big.jpg

from
Financial Times: The MH17 debris left untouched and ignored

Black boxes to be handed over to Malaysians, according to BBC newsflash.

Edited: rt.com says:

US surveillance data
 

In view of the fact that Obama has already stated that the USA has data showing the use of a SA missile to bring this aircraft down it seems perverse in the extreme not to make some of the raw data available right away, even if in limited resolution. Not doing so just helps accelerate the storm of disinformation.

In the case of a "normal" accident investigation you could say that holding back would be prudent however given the likelihood that other evidence is already compromised revealing some of the data might at least shut down some of the disinformation.