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@AreOut
they were (and still are) flying to Dnepropetrovsk that is some 50 miles from a warzone which is a bit crazy because they are now practically at war What if one of the aeroflot planes crashed for whatever reason. Of course the issue would become instantly political and could be used as an excuse for Russia to "bring order" to Kiev. Some crazy people now think NATO can be brought in to fight Russia - which is either very unrealistic or very crazy. |
The Mayalsians, if they have any sense, will ask for blackbox help from Australia, who they already have arrangements with because of MH370, and not let the US get their hands on them either. British air accident investigators will retrieve data from the black boxes of crashed flight MH17, UK Prime Minister David Cameron has said. This follows a request by authorities in the Netherlands, where the Malaysia Airlines plane flew from before crashing in Ukraine. The experts, based at Farnborough, will download data from the flight recorders for "international analysis". |
How long does this sort of analysis of the flight voice and data recorders take?
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Been reading more about the sa-11 operating in standalone mode. According to multiple web sites (such as Engagement and Fire Control Radars (S-Band, X-band) ) the 9S35 Fire Dome radar mounted to the Telar in the Buk M1 system DOES have standalone IFF capabilities. Anyone have any first hand knowledge about how the standalone IFF works ?
. The 9S35 Fire Dome provides a limited search and acquisition capability, a tracking capability and CW illumination for terminal guidance of the semi-active homing SAM seekers. It incorporates an IFF interrogator, optical tracker, datalink, and is powered by the TELAR's gas turbine generator. A shared antenna is employed for two X-band transmit/receive channels. These respectively provide a pulsed mode for search and track functions, with linear chirp for compression, and a CW mode for illumination. Monopulse angle tracking is employed for jam resistance. For target tracking the antenna and feed system provide a mainlobe with 2.5° width in azimuth and 1.3° in elevation. For CW illumination the antenna and feed system provide a mainlobe with 1.4° width in azimuth and 2.65° in elevation. Operating autonomously, the 9S35 will take 4 seconds to sweep a 120° sector, with an elevation of 6° to 7°. When cued to acquire and track, with will take 2 seconds to sweep a 10° x 7° az/elev solid angle. Average power output in pulsed tracking modes varies between 0.5 and 1 kiloWatt, with CW illumination at 2 kiloWatts. The search and monopulse angle tracking receivers are both rated at a Noise Figure of NF=10 dB. The range error is cited at 175 metres, the angular error at less than 1°. The radar can switch from standby mode to combat operation in twenty seconds. |
Originally Posted by tippy
(Post 8574948)
How long does this sort of analysis of the flight voice and data recorders take?
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"According to multiple web sites (such as Engagement and Fire Control Radars (S-Band, X-band) ) the 9S35 Fire Dome radar mounted to the Telar in the Buk M1 system DOES have standalone IFF capabilities."
it does but its usage requires properly trained squad, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if rebels only knew how to acquire target and shoot and used their "spies" some hundreds miles to the west to alarm them about incoming military aircraft |
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I suspect the DFDR/CVR data is digitally signed making falsification (likely) impossible, and probably engineered that way for many reasons.
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"Buk M1 system DOES have standalone IFF capabilities."
and what chance is there for a (basically) Soviet-spec IFF to identify a 777 as a 'friend'? (remember - in military, 'no marker' - NEVER a friend) |
SKYNEWS
The USA state dept is about to announce having looked at all their evidence they believe the missile was launched from a rebel controlled area |
TEEEJ
nice explanatory image, doesn't look as if the pilot would have known a thing, if the angle of entry was slightly front to rear co might have had chance to say say a brief something . Hope they have that piece secure, any idea how far from the main crash site it is. |
Oldoberon,
No problem. I found it on another forum. See following for where it was recovered from. The wreckage was recovered by the people of Petropavlovka from a villager’s back yard last Thursday and moved to the roadside because it was believed to be important. |
The various recovered panels can be used to work out shrapnel density and vector at each panel location.
Any structure with both entrance and exit holes will yield a shrapnel particle path. Integration of the paths will produce the position of detonation relative to the T7. It takes more work to determine the missile vector. It will be somewhat like working out which way a shotgun was pointed from the shot pattern on an oblique target. |
About Robert Parry's article:
What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms. The source said CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said. That criticism considered, I don't disagree with his indictment of the press corps (of which he is a member) in general. |
We could perhaps find a certain degree of reconciliation in this awful tragedy, if it was accidental, in the sense that a civilian transport was not the intended target. But what if it was not and the aircraft was deliberately targeted in an attempt to further isolate the Ukraine from the West. Then it can only be described as barbaric, the very worse of war crimes, acts which ocurred during the Balkan Wars. Violations of every rule in the book about how to conduct warfare. It had happened before and was happing again, somewhere else. In the West, the fact that the so called unrest in Eastern Ukraine had escalated to a major internal conflict,conducted not in strict observance of the Queensberry Rules must have been known and if not, should have been known to those who were tasked with the burden of responsibility for the safe conduct of passangers in all designated airspace. We are of course only too well acquainted with the precept that all air accidents involve a causal chain of factors, which when combined result in disaster. In this instance the major factor in this chain is the failure of proper and timely action to ban all civilian overflights in the region. Earlier in this thread someone had said it was the penny pinching bean counters to blame. I don`t think so. I would be inclined to question the faceless armies of bureaucrats, their painfully slow digestion and their highly developed skills of passing the buck.
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Papapapahotel - truck carrying sam vehicle is same in pictures 6 and 8,
Yes the Buk on the trailer picture is confirmed as being taken in Torez. See following link for large image. https://www.metabunk.org/data/MetaMi...7d36994c08.jpg From (Note video in following post for confirmation of location in Torez) https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-3#post-117428 https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-ukraine.3977/ As you can see that truck/trailer has history. Truck cab has what appears to be same stripe/decal. http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h2...O/buk/7003.jpg http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h2...2_10-18-20.jpg http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h2...7001MH1712.jpg The video of the truck/trailer with Buk on was highlighted in the Russian military brief on MH17. It appears that the Russian military have done no work on this other than repeat what was on social media and claiming it to be in Krasnoarmeysk which is in Ukrainian Government hands. |
We could perhaps find a certain degree of reconciliation in this awful tragedy, if it was accidental, in the sense that a civilian transport was not the intended target. But what if it was not and the aircraft was deliberately targeted in an attempt to further isolate the Ukraine from the West. Then it can only be described as barbaric, the very worse of war crimes, acts which ocurred during the Balkan Wars. Violations of every rule in the book about how to conduct warfare. It had happened before and was happing again, somewhere else. In the West, the fact that the so called unrest in Eastern Ukraine had escalated to a major internal conflict,conducted not in strict observance of the Queensberry Rules must have been known and if not, should have been known to those who were tasked with the burden of responsibility for the safe conduct of passangers in all designated airspace. We are of course only too well acquainted with the precept that all air accidents involve a causal chain of factors, which when combined result in disaster. In this instance the major factor in this chain is the failure of proper and timely action to ban all civilian overflights in the region. Earlier in this thread someone had said it was the penny pinching bean counters to blame. I don`t think so. I would be inclined to question the faceless armies of bureaucrats, their painfully slow digestion and their highly developed skills of passing the buck. I would have thought the beneficiaries of such an act would actually be the Ukranians, especially as they have been losing in the East. Nevertheless, I believe it was an accident. |
The missile truck
Teej posting images of the SAM being moved
claiming it to be in Krasnoarmeysk which is in Ukrainian Government hands. BTW it is useful to read the "other side" websites too. And believe none of them. |
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"But what if it was not and the aircraft was deliberately targeted in an attempt to further isolate the Ukraine from the West."
That doesn't make sense, actually it has pushed Ukraine closer to the West than it has ever been. Also it provided "breathing room" for ukrainian aircraft and they are now pounding rebel cities fiercely without fear from their SAMs (as rebels can't risk anymore with SAMs) and without any care for civilian casualties as media is now interested solely in MH17(we can also add Gaza to that). |
That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed). An IFF system maybe fitted to the SA-11, but without the codebook for the returns from aircraft, a totally pointless system as far as the rebels go, plus the IFF system fitted to Soviet systems was not compatible with western IFF/SSR systems which may be the case with this system (The IFF systems on earlier Soviet SAMs definitely weren't). They may had had the camera system on the missile launcher, but if its cloudy that isn't much use for identifying the target either. |
BUK in Torez
Torez BUK analysis has gone pretty viral and seems to be quite reliable in its mature form, like this one: о сомнительном буке замолвите слово. It's in Russian, but the key items are photos, videos and links to Yandex maps.
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That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed). It is quite possible that the missile did intercept the aircraft from above. |
I think that the intercepted call is genuine which would mean that missile is fired and the plane went down, so do the math what would be the probability that it missed the plane and at the very same moment a planted bomb was activated...
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If that's true and the missile originated on the ground somewhere ahead of MH17, it's possible that the flight crew may have seen the missile (and it's smokey trail) rising and maneuvering ahead of them??? If so, the CVR becomes of increased interest. Really doubt, the pilots were looking down, nor would see something coming straight at them. |
@ZeBedie Quote: Is there any chance that a Ukrainian military transport would be heading East into Russia, as MH17 was? Is the Ukrainian government on good enough terms with Moscow for that to be possible? The strategy of Kiev gov was to surround the rebel cities and cut them of from supposed logistical support from Russia. The only way they could supply their troops was by air. See map: blue and yellow (flag of Ukraine) is the area controlled by Kiev gov. Clearly they were fighting the situtation where their yellow area of advancement on the Russian border was facing the danger of being surrounded. Similarly, the Kiev troops had a reason to activate their SAMs because they made a claim that it is Russian jets that are shooting down their transports, and not rebel SAMs. Russian jets shoot down Ukrainian warplane over Ukraine: Kiev military Clearly, both sides had reasons to use SAMs in that mess. Visually, it looked civilian, on radar, too high to land in Ukraine and ground speed double that of the An22 they thought they'd hit? |
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Doesn't this point to an unskilled (Pro Russia separatist) operator, rather than a Russian specialist detached to the separatists? |
Us: No link to russian gov't in plane downing
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KatSLF,
The following link is my post on Metabunk. The Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs claims that the video was taken in Lugansk. If it was taken in Krasnoarmeysk then it should be relatively easy for journalists, etc to find the exact place of filming. https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-3#post-117549 The claim of Krasnoarmeysk comes from the following on social media. See link for copy of the social media post. Google translation In the Ukrainian public servers distributed video where militias allegedly trafficked to the side Russian gunman Beech. But the video Krasnoarmiysk city, visible billboard advertising dealership to Dnipropetrovsk, 34. May 11, and is still under the control of the city junta troops conducting ATO! On Boquete lacks one rocket. Pictures and videos of the towing vehicle (the same) has a shop STROYDOM. Address: Krasnoarmiysk, Gorky 49. Beech That is the shooter was on the territory controlled by the junta and still there. What issues? All clear as day - Boeing Ukrainian military shot down here it's the most Buck, and now to the network leaked video was not compromising just stupid they are cutting all the blame on others, such as this "militia driven". Remain true to their nature brehlivoy (Odessites themselves burned themselves luganchane blew air conditioning, DNR shoots itself on cities and so on) |
@TEEEJ
Graphics at links you showed identify the place where BUK with missing missile is moving through as Luhansk. Google maps links to the exact place and all. Problem is - this was where heavy fighting was going on for several days and per official news releases all of Luhansk was "liberated" around the time when the missile launcher was supposedly being moved without any escort though there. Luhansk Offensive Liberation: Anti-terrorist Forces Took Control of the South-Eastern Part of Luhansk ? Defense Ministry - Presidential Administration, Alpha, fighter, Lugansk, min defense, Security Service of Ukraine, separatism, terrorism, Ukraine, So, the rebels fired the missile and were moving it toward and through heavy concentration of Ukrainian troops and not away from it? This is completely bonkers. Obviously the photo is old, doctored, or it is Ukrainian troops moving the missile launcher. All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US. |
There's a fair chance MH370 was taken by a rebel and MH17 was downed by rebels, the first action deliberate, demonstrating great competence; the second by accident, showing none.
I seriously question the ability of the authorities to predict or prevent these rare and random occurrences, or mitigate the risk at reasonable cost. It all stems from governments. The Malaysian rulers antagonised opponents, jailing one for "sodomy". Some Ukrainians ousted their democratically elected government, possibly with help from the CIA, and a civil war ensued. The loss of life in illegal or unnecessary wars waged by Baby Bush and Big Blair, was "democratic". This is "evil" and "criminal". Simple but no help. |
http://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/ima...flightpath.jpg
U. S. intelligence graphic of missile trajectory, as published in Washington Post. Perhaps the same image in a larger format will appear soon. |
All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US. But there is one with a missile missing. How many others have they been using, lately? that we know of? did someone casually video one with a missing missile weeks ago, then post it a day after the plane went down? was Luhansk bristling with Government troops by then? or just been recaptured and left alone? would anyone non-military go up and challenge a passing missile launcher as to who's driving it ? especially if they're in uniform? or even anyone military if not at a checkpoint? OKAY let's say it was an official one, not a separatist one. How does that change the big picture? * the pressure is off Russia * the pressure is on Kiev big time * very red faces for USA * lot less excuse for official troops to make this mistake, as assumedly they'd have more command and control in place to identify it correctly I absolutely can't see it being deliberate, ie a shot at a known civilian craft. |
What could be learnt from the CVR/DFR ?
Some picts of debris (some being reinforced structural elements) peppered with a high density of small holes tell already so much...
Could the recorders collect data between the moment when the plane was riddled by high speed incandescent metal projectiles (detonation of the fragmentation warhead) and when the aircell integrity was compromised (the A/C dislocated) ? What could be the usefull data then ? the many subsequent failures, sudden inertial perturbations,...? Could the inertial data & modelling give an idea about the terminal trajectory of the missile ? |
@KatSLF
All I am saying this whole thing with the BUK launcher on a truck is a red herring, designed to get everyone excited. Either I am completely dense or these guys who fired BUK are. See what I mean. Suppose that US is right that the missile was fired from around Snizhne. This is a good location for it from the rebels perspective. The biggest thing they have to worry about is successful resupply of gov troops (ammo, equipment or paratroopers) advancing near Sverdlovsk. Suppose you are a rebel, you know you screwed up and you want to cover up. - Why not dump the whole thing into a river or a lake, or blow it up and dump it? The damn thing is a tracked vehicle so all you have to worry about is not leaving a complete trail if you don't want it found. - If you really feel you need to take it back (south) to Russia, then Snizne is only some 20 km from the border with Russia. No good road connects advanced gov positions along Russian border near Anvorosiivka, Sverdlovsk and the boonies you need to cross to get to Russia. - You have a tracked vehicle, you don't even need a road. 20 minutes and you are in Russia. - If gov troops are on the road you can drive through fields, its night, small chances they will be ready with anti-armor weapons to chase after you through the fields. - But no - you decide to load the damn thing on a truck, thus depriving it of combat value and combat maneuverability - and without any escort drive it more than 100 km north to Luhansk - and place of very heavy concentration of gov troops. Why? Conclusion. It is all BS. Some kid saw BUK being moved around and decided he figured it out. Perhaps someone purposely moved them around to add confusion and even maybe ditched one of the missiles to get onlookers (and sat surveillance analyzers) excited. Then you "get caught" and produce the truck and the launcher that was on it and show it to be some old stripped down junk incapable of getting off the truck and firing. You were just trying to prevent those other bad guys from having it for missiles, and other spare parts, blah, blah. Falsely accused, blah blah. Meanwhile, the real thing went the other way. Critical at this point where was the damn thing really fired from? If I were on the ground I would drive around looking for fresh armored vehicle tracks. Now - I am not saying these idiots were all that smart. I am saying - don't expect them to be completely stupid. https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Snizh...,+Ukraine&z=11 |
Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's director of informational security was on CNN saying they taped a conversation between Moscow and an officer minutes before the launch reporting that a plane was coming.
"We taped conversations" between a Russian officer and his office in Moscow, Nayda said. "We know for sure that several minutes before the missile was launched, there was a report" to a Russian officer that the plane was coming, he said. |
Some pics from the cockpit area on this twitter feed.
http://t.co/mQ9eViLNei pic.twitter.com/wft8yJRcxL |
RH cockpit window frame
This image shows cockpit seat rails and rear centre consul. Note at bottom what appears to be RH / first officers windscreen frame with shrapnel egress.
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...ream/lightbox/ same windscreen from different angle amongst plant. *note what appears to be shrapnel damage to pilots seat back just below top inertia reel. https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/ |
Cockpit photos
YEP there's going to be something on the CVR for sure.:sad:
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