Not hard to guess.

To those who already know what happened, it provides information about US surveillance capabilities in the area - release undesirable.

To the ordinary Russians, and to those elsewhere who do not believe the US, it will be US propaganda, fabricated, will not be believed - hence release is of no benefit.

To those in the west who believe US statements it will be redundant because Obama already gave the answers - hence release is of no benefit.

It's hard to comment on most of the speculation revolving around the parties involved/guilty as it is at the moment pure speculation. Until the facts are released to the public we are just stoking the fire.

There must be a reason as to why the US haven't released what they know via satellites and their sources. I think they will have the most complete picture currently.

The loss is still raw and people are understandably raw with anger and anguish.

There are so many aspects to this I forsee it will take quite some time to understand it fully.

Any element of truth in the rumours that Ukrainian ATC requested the a/c descend FL330 before it was allegedly hit by a SAM?

New York Times article indicates that the launcher was being operated without a link to a command vehicle, and thus had no way of identifying a target other than as a blip on the screen.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014...=pocket-region

Cb avoidance and Notam reading.
 

Having bumbled up and down over Croatia on many occasions in my last years in the seat 0A, I recall being sensitive to avoiding action which took me away from the weather, but would have put me in Kosovan airspace, so that option was never considered. The obvious question if weather deviation actually was a factor in the track of MH17 is, were the crew fully aware of the wasps nest currently lurking there? And if not, then why not?

ATC, some postings ago, you stated rather arrogantly, that if there was any notam, then the crew should have read and actioned it. May I remind you again of the limited time allowed for pre-flight briefing activities and the mass and mess of info presented in a variety of graphic designs which aid misinterpretation and increase the chances of missing the IMPORTANT bits?

I recall in the days of XL Airways, impounding the 87 sides of A4 printed bumph and attempting to get fleet management to reorganise it in a user friendly format. The filters were inadequate so I was skimming past the info regarding the lit mast 10 metres high, adjacent to the bulk fuelling compound at some GA/flying club airfield.

BAs notams at the end of the 90s were informing Classic transatlantic crews about minor airfields in Republic of Ireland.

Like a lot of aviation tragedies, the origins of many accidents lie within the walls of that airlines HQ, so don't try loading the dead MH17 crew with failure to appreciate what was going on 5 miles below, in a continent about which they may have known very little regarding current military conflicts.

- Any element of truth in the rumours that Ukrainian ATC
requested the a/c descend FL330 before it was allegedly hit
by a SAM?

MH17 was at FL 330 all the time over Ukrainian territory. Minutes before crash, controller proposed fl350 to mh17 due to another traffic, but crew said that were unable.
anyway...350 couldn't help, as "Buk" can hit target at alt. up to 25 km.

Hull Insurance
 

I'm wondering if there is an acts-of-war exclusion for such losses? But, of course, an armed conflict is not necessary a war, depending upon the policy definitions. But maybe the aircraft was leased by MH, and the lessor carried the insurance?


The answer might bear on the future solvency of MH.

Anyone with extensive knowledge on international aircraft law? Just wondering what the insurance implications for Malaysian are?

The flight was legal at the time the incident happened so would their insurance cover it or would these be classed as an act of war and therefore not be covered?

Just hope the airline can pull through the odds of this happening to Malaysian were unbelievable.

Sorry for all the questions just trying to get a better understanding of the legal aspects. Appreciate your patience.

It's doubtful as it was never above FL330, so I cannot see how it would have been asked to descend to FL330. ADS-B flight track log here:

http://i.imgur.com/tBs0Tny.jpg?1

What kind of people would do this ? and then block others from investigating the scene.

The reason the Dutch and Malaysians are so "mature" about their response is they know there's absolutely nothing the countries can do about it unless the where prepared to send troops in to secure the area.

Now we know thats not going to happen, so they may well just show some dignity and see what they can do.

The question is what level of investigation is needed in this instance, and hence what security? If a complete forensic examination to determin the cause is needed, then nothing short of a professional force be it local police (funny) military etc.

Now, if we know what bought it down, then really all that matters is recovering the body's. That could be a lot simpler. The problem here is determining all the various interests and hence the resistance to particular actions.

Depending on how and what bought it down, will determine the action of those who did it and the need of a cleaning operation before any of the "other side" get there.

So the real fact is it was probably just a :mad: up, and almost every one knows it. Hence some people are just accepting the fact, and others are using it. Another words the innocent are in the middle again, situation normal.

It seems our chances of receiving an unbiased report just diminished a little. Surely the airline industry in general should pressure for transparency here?



Ukraine's Security Service Has Confiscated Air Traffic Control Recordings With Malaysian Jet | Zero Hedge

there is plenty of evidence, maybe it is censored in Russia where you are, but you can see it everywhere else, INCLUDING here!.

I or J band chaff is only 1 to 1.5 cm. Russian CW chaff was better than western chaff.

If dispensed at altitude you would be lucky to find one piece especially as fighters don't carry much.

blinkers much?

MH17: Grieving Dutch relatives angry at reports of looting at crash scene | News.com.au

"MH17 climbed from FL310 to FL330 as it entered Ukraine from Poland and SQ351 was at FL330 when it entered Ukraine from Belarus. SQ351 later climbed to FL350 as the two planes converged while MH17 stayed at FL330. ATC's discretion to maintain separation? The 2 planes were quite close (~25-30km) to each other when MH was downed.

...approx positions from flightradar24.com at 1320UTC for both SQ351 and MH17, SQ351 is at FL350 and MH17 at FL330.

The area both planes were in were off-limits from FL260 to FL320 according to UKDV NOTAM A1492/14."

Quote from here.

As this is not an accident, but a deliberate shoot down of a civil airliner, if this had happened in the US, the FBI would have done the same.

This was not an accident, it was murder and the crash site is a crime scene, by the Ukrainian rebels looting and removing parts of the aircraft, one can only conclude a cover up.

Once again, as a NTSB trained aircraft accident investigator I am appalled by the treatment of this crash site.

To my untrained eye the explosion was from behind the A/C if those pictures showing shrapnel hit were indeed shrapnel. I really don't know how that could be useful information though, just to many variables.

A spy satellite will know exactly where the missile was launched from and its trajectory, they use heat signature from the rocket plume. Not likely the general public will ever see that info though.

I'm not much interested in the political sided comments in this thread.

The first things of interest are the examination of the wreckage by skilled investigators and parallel assessment of ATC tracks and any possible missile tracks.

From my view there is little the untrained rebels can do to destroy all the evidence either by intent or accident. The issue now is the ability to put trained investigators on-site and for the soldiers to keep their distance and prevent looting by others..

Meanwhile the first level mitigation is to avoid war zones where missiles of this capability may be operating.

After the confirmation from on-site the political aspects can be explored in some other forum.

Has anybody heard what the makeup of an investigating team will be and when they will arrive?

I would hope that the russians will be involved as well on this team.

right now we need facts not suspicions of motives and recriminatons

As point of interest, and I'm implying this is the reason for this. What is the position of The Russian troops just across the border that was reported to be built up just before this happened?

Another words in relation to the accident scene, it could be a good excuse to go in and secure the area, another words responding to global outrage.

As I said before, I am not implying that is why this happened.

May be this smoking gun points to Ukrainian government ?
 

There are counter claims that the alleged video was shoot in Krasnoarmeysk which is controlled by Ukrainian government since May.

Transport of BUK System to Russia filmed – really?

After some geolocation work I tend to believe this version of the story, although reluctantly since I know both parties are engeaged in a dirty Pr war.

Any way I do not base conclutions on videos & pictures posted here and there without verification

I'm not sure of the makeup, however, they are on scene and are being blocked from gaining access to the crash site by the Ukrainian rebels.

We have sent at least one NTSB investigator and I'm sure that there are one or two from Boeing.

But if they will be granted access to the crash site by the Ukrainian rebels is anyone's guess.

guilt
 

After following these very sad events in the BBC news and watching the thugs at the site i can only conclude that the guilt for this event is firmly at the door of these guys. Had they been transparent and open from the outset to open the door to an investigation then i might have taken a differing stance.

As it is now my personal veiw is that this bunch killed the entire pax and crew list not to mention the health of an airline. The ramifications of which will affect thousands of lives.

So the competing theories of the crime seem to be down to:

1) A bunch of mouth-breathing irregulars who've been lighting off anything they can get their hands on at anything moving did it

2) In a carefully orchestrated plot, the Ukranian Government shot down an aircraft which was deviating and had no reason to be where it was with the intention of blaming the whole thing on poor innocent Vlad and his uh Freedom Fighters. (* Woops, almost forgot, then somehow got an SA-11 launcher on a flatbed headed towards Russia in the early hours of the morning the next day to take pictures of for uh "plausible deniability")

Yeah, I dunno, hard to tell. Wheels within wheels!

I expect as usual more intelligence exists, such as the specifics of the shootdown. There's some reticence to come out and say who it was in plain language.

As to how the airframe broke up, I suspect that was inevitable once a large explosion compromised the integrity of the fuselage; a 70lb warhead is so big and a non-evading frontal-quarter 777 such a textbook target that it would have been almost test conditions.

It looks like the wingbox and remnants of the wing and centre fuselage fell in one piece with the engines (unusually for a break-up) attached, where the big fire is in all the photos.

I hope the CVR and DFDR haven't been irreparably damaged by fire as it looked like they didn't have much to control the fire with. Not that they will be that useful.

I still wonder what the hell the shooter was thinking, and it's extremely fortunate they didn't knock down the SQ flight, too, seeing as it must have appeared as a similar return within a couple of minutes of MH17.

Multiple reports indicate that it was known several days prior that the undisciplined irregular separatist/rebel army had acquired control of a SAM system capable of bringing down large aircraft at altitude. Now, if so, and if Kiev was aware (and there are multiple reports indicating they were) why they did not immediately close the airspace over the area within which said undisciplined irregular armed units were operating is a question they need to answer.:ugh:

video
 

One quick comment about that video that supposedly shows the BUK missile launcher on a truck being returned to Russia. Several of the captions for repeats of this video state that "two missiles are missing" and then speculate that this means two were fired at MH17. Two warheads on the remaining missiles are very evident and if you look closely, you can see the top of the missile body and the stabilization fin on the third missile, farthest from the camera. There definitely is only ONE missile missing on that unit.

Just wondering ... how would the politics of this mess be playing out if this had been a Lufthansa plane that had been randomly downed instead of a Malaysian plane full of Dutch citizens ...?

Chaff Hoax
 

The video referenced by the various social media is the second better resolution crash video. It shows long streamer like objects falling into the wreck site. By my estimate they are of the order of hundreds of metres long and to be visible at all at that range metres wide.

Here is a typical expose https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUltrf8n_vA

It's complete rubbish of course but is still getting a lot of people exercised.

There is logistical impossibility of fitting a dispenser on a fighter aircraft capable of even dispensing those objects. That plus that size/type of chaff has never been seen before, and there is no known chaff dispenser in the Ukraine/Russian arsenal that could possibly deploy them.

The nearest I can find is a US dispenser that takes a reel of chaff material and cuts it to size in flight to match whatever radar frequency is being jammed. The reel is perhaps 4 inches wide.

rh200 -Not going to happen; inviting outside forces to secure the area would bring 40,000 Russian troops to the Ukraine border very quickly, Ukraine knows this -and so does everybody else.

lomapaseo -not going to happen anytime soon. A.) it is a war zone and B.) inasmuch as those in control of the zone are not being cooperative here it is very likely that such an investigation is not in their best interest.

Gary Powers:
 

"Gary Powers: U2 SpyPlane Incident 1960" Shot down over Russia at FL650

A lesson from the history books re missiles:

I quote: " The incident showed that even high altitude aircraft were vulnerable to missiles."

Who decided that above FL320 was safe? Were the experts from the military consulted?

Agree with post #481...This will be long forgotten by the time Russia enjoys hosting the next World Cup including many national teams whose citizens are now lying in a dark farm field as we speak...Not one country left with a moral compass...U.N. typically useless.

All he has to do is announce that if the separatists will not do as he requests, they will never be welcomed in Russia & the area they are claiming will never be considered part of Russia. Then he will get their attention!

Over at the airliners.... post 51 in part 3 MH17 crashes in Ukraine has an unauthenticated TV screen shoot of the remains of the SAM.

Apologies if this has been posted before.

@SLFplatine said:


One possible answer (according to the Wall Street Journal):

U.S. Points to Russian Missile Connection in Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash - WSJ


Translation - inertia, perhaps busy with other matters, coupled with absence of imagination, no sense of urgency, and neither contemplating nor understanding how a Buk-M1 system potentially might be used by "undisciplined irregular armed units" (as opposed to how the system was designed to be used by a well trained, disciplined team.) Maybe some compartmentalization of information as well.

We are talking about government work, after all.

Russia radar must be monitoring that area closely at the time the plane was down.

So Russia would have evidence if it was NOT shot down by pro Russia folks.

Now Russia said nothing about the radar records.

They must have known who shot the plane down.

Isn't there any chance that ATC Radar will have captured the missile's path from launch to impact with its target. Of course as the Ukrainians have not so far come up with anything then perhaps not. No doubt ATC monitoring facilities in that region are still primitive in the extreme.

However this is unlikely to be tried in any court of law for a long time but the unofficial trial of the rebel separatists will come in terms of the sanctions and other pressure imposed on Russia by the West. Since the separatists and the Russians (who quite unbelievably gave them these weapons without providing the supervisory personnel to ensure that a mistake like this dd not take place) are blatantly guilty unless they can prove otherwise the same rules of evidence as a court needs to send someone to prison are not going to be required to impose sanctions on Russia or cancel the 2018 World Cup in order to punish Putin personally.

If you view the full-size image, it's obviously a photoshop job.

The base picture is a photo of a CNN screen, with heavy edits:

1 The perspective of the screen and the top
"bug" vary greatly - "sneider" panel vs. bottom graphics.

2 Is there really an anti-aircraft missile out there that has exposed bolts in the slipstream? Looks more like a buoy.

3 The shadow from the fin does not match any other shadow angle in the rest of the image.

(view full at http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large)