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Red moon right now over London
If you are in London, look outside the window right now: the moon is red :eek:
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Originally Posted by Stoic
I think you will find that the ash clouds that have done the damage in the past to eg. BA009 and the NASA aeroplane were in visible ash cloud, not invisible ash cloud. Emperor and new clothes comes to mind.
Again, this was an encounter with an extremely thin concentration of ash for a very short period. Continued operation in these conditions would have probably resulted in more sever damage. (Source: NASA volcanic ash incident report) |
Originally Posted by LowFlier
For the same reason that a very light ZFW 738, ....skirting along the upwind edge of the promulgated cloud, avoiding going anywhere near the tall stuff.
Smoke and mirrors, without smoke or mirrors. Just showbiz. Made for the media. Made to mislead. Made to deceive. If this shall be accounted as some valid investigation of the risk, then the flight profile should have been defined by some of the met guys knowing the current distribution of the ash cloud as well as the critical locations...and not be defined by some cash flow driven mind set of an airline CEO. Regards, ihg P.S.: I couldnt find any alleged NASA 'investigator' statements denying any risk, that Mr. Hartman claimed would exist.....did anyone else? |
Red moon right now over London
Yes, but that post is 30mins prior to Moonset. 7.5 deg above horizon.
'Normal' pollution would make the Moon red at that altitude as you are looking NW across London and most of the UK pollution. The question still stands - does the lower level ash fall out after dark, allowing flying at night to a level below the 'ashbase'? |
Looked red to me at around 9pm. I'm in rural central england.
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Look at this! This Russian fleet is flying like nothing has happened. Do they have more info on concentration and the effects on a/c? Might check other sites, I bet they are operating as usually. Difference - they have military ATC, not civilians. They are knowingly and intentionally fly commercial aircrafts into dangerous regions. This is prohibited by every international aviation convention. AirChina has terminated it's flights from China to Moscow (it is unsafe around Moscow). Emirates and some other Asian airlines also terminated flights to Moscow. Yet Aeroflot (and other Russian carriers) flies these routes as if nothing had happened. This gives you an idea how reckless Russians are. No world-class airline puts it's passenger safety behind commercial interests. Russian airlines do that and noone seems to notice. |
Went outside this evening at at maybe 1915 and 2115 you could smell the ash at ground level.
Nice day for a BBQ today.......:} |
Someone asked about the impact of the ash cloud on medevacs from the Afghan theatre, which are apparently going direct to ADW. NY Times reports today:
"The shutdown has also affected American military operations. Military supplies for operations in Afghanistan have been disrupted, and a spokeswoman for the Pentagon said that all medical evacuation flights from Iraq and Afghanistan to Germany, where most injured soldiers are typically treated, were being diverted directly to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland." |
Niki Lauda: „Man könnte schon lange wieder fliegen“ - Fliegen - FOCUS Online
Niki Lauda says that it's all safe now, so I guess that wraps it up.... (article in German I am afraid, but the crux is that he has spoken to his engine manufacturer and everything is fine. If Austrocontrol don't let him start flying tomorrow he will sue them...) |
Ash and all
Am I he only one to think that we have become so risk averse that we run the risk of shutting down a perfectly viable industry.
When did we last sample the atmosphere before we launched a really hi tech Dornier 228 to sample the upper atmosphere? Have the legal team finally taken over the business? rgds Kally |
KLM Test Flight
Saturday KLM has got authorisation of the Inspectie voor Verkeer en Waterstaat to make a test flight in Dutch airspace. If the quality of the atmosphere is satisfactory to fly safe, KLM hopes to get passengers to their destination as soon as possible. This was announced this afternoon by president and CEO of KLM, Peter Hartman at a press conference. The test flight will be carried out at the beginning of the evening. Results are expected later in the evening. Peter Hartman will be on board as an observer. KLM test flight passes off without problem KLM Royal Dutch Airlines carried out a test flight this evening between about 19.45 and 21:00 hours CEST in Netherlands airspace using a Boeing 737-800. The flight was carried out to establish whether air quality in the atmosphere meets the requirements for safe flight. No problems were encountered during the flight. The aircraft was transferred to a hangar on landing where it underwent a thorough inspection. The results have been reported to the Transport and Water Management Inspectorate. The Inspectorate will take the decision on whether flight operations are possible. KLM President & CEO, Peter Hartman, said: "At first glance there is no reason to suspect that anything is amiss. We observed no irregularities either during the flight or during the initial inspection on the ground. If the results of the technical inspection confirm this impression, we are ready to start by returning seven of our aircraft to Amsterdam from Düsseldorf. We hope to receive permission as soon as possible after that to start up our operation and to transport our passengers to their destinations." KLM Executive Vice-President Operations, Ype de Haan, was also on board the flight with Peter Hartman as an observer. The aircraft flew to 41,000 feet (altitude of approximately 13 kilometres), which is the maximum altitude for this type of aircraft. KLM expects to receive the final results of the technical inspection tomorrow morning. |
...we have become so risk averse...Have the legal team finally taken over the business? I applaud KLM for doing test flights but do not wish for airspace to be re-opened based solely upon research done by companies who have a direct financial interest in flights being resumed. That said; who is most qualified to judge whether the airspace is navigable in relative safety? Can any members point to other agencies that are currently undertaking similar experiments? |
Some videos of the volcano erupting, taken a few days ago.
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Does anybody know what specialised test equipment the KLM 737 was equipped with? I heard rumour that the specialised Dornier 228 that flew over the Eastern UK on Friday was denied permission to enter the Amsterdam FIR.
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Hi,
Does anybody know what specialised test equipment the KLM 737 was equipped with? The specialised test equipement was the two engines :) That's the best equipement for test if the engines will cope with ash ? environnement. I suppose the Pitot tubes and other standard measuring devices are also parts of the specialised equipment of this KLM boeing ....... |
So what are they going to do? See if engines didn't break and plane hasn't crashed - and based on that declare flying safe? Where is the logic? A single successful flight does not say absolutely anything about general safety of flying in these conditions.
World aviation agencies spend countless hours certifying aircraft for simpler and better understood conditions such as flying above water or in winter etc, and only then give a "go" based on significant test data when appropriate measures are worked out. And here they want to let planes fly into known hazard based on 1 hour of flight time without any additional specialized equipment, knowledge or testing? I know they want to make money - but surely a single all-engine flameout event would cause them more issues and will ground them for even longer. Very very shortsighted. |
Thinks... no thermals to keep it up, condensation of water due to much lower temperature = fallout. 1/3 air mass goes up in thermals when they're popping, the other 2/3 comes down half as fast as the 1/3 that goes up - roughly! If all the air went up in thermals, we'd die :) |
Hi,
World aviation agencies spend countless hours certifying aircraft for simpler and better understood conditions such as flying above water or in winter etc, and only then give a "go" based on significant test data when appropriate measures are worked out. Why world aviation agencies not spended hours for conduct tests in a volcanic ashes environement ? AFAIK it's a well know natural phenomena like ice or snow or rain or birds ... |
Measurements
Does anyone heard of measurements of the Volcanic cloud in terms of milligrams per cubic meter (Dispersed ash in air)?.
Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ? These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects. Regards, Peck |
Who says stunt?
As you can read in the post higher up on this page, KLM's test flight was conducted in cooperation with IVW, the Dutch CAA,
The flight is mentioned on the official web page of IVW as being conducted on request of the European Union. More test flights in other countries are to be conducted. As far as test equipment is concerned, of course no special equipment is added to the outside of the machine. How about borescoping the engines after the flight to look for the slightest traces of ash EFFECTS. You may have found the pictures of the Finnish Air Force F-18 engines earlier on in this forum. The civilian test flight are there to establish whether any signs of ash can be found after a flight in a thorough technical inspection, not just from the observations of mr. Hartman or mr. De Haan. The risk is not in this one short flight, but flights such as this one may indicate whether there will be any long term risk in starting up full scale operations. If you are concerned about money, even if both engines would now need a massive overhaul, that is money well spent to prove that losing 5 to 10 million per day per company by not-flying is justified. |
Health and Safety gone mad
I notice that one of the contaminated plumes has very nearly made a westward track towards Newfoundland, after passing over Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Southern England.
When it reaches the State of Maine or Nova Scotia, is anybody going to believe that no one can fly because of Volcanic Ash. Get real, the Moody 747 flew through the erupting plume of the erupting volcano. The ppm density was at its highest and most destructive. By the time it's dissipated and the ppm is very low, what is the problem. Maybe its the Lawyers and engine manufacturers covering themselves. For years now aircraft have been landing in desert regions with low RVR's caused by sand not moisture. Aircraft also have in the past suffered no problems with the likes of Mt St Helens, Pinatubo, the Alaskan Peninsular and the many Volcanos in the Sea of Japan. Start looking at what ppm density starts to cause the problems and do it fast. It's no good sending up a Dornier, it has to be carried out on an Engine test rig by the manufacturers. The sooner the better please, so that I can get off the ground and back home with my wife and dogs. Jetfresh |
Hi,
Engines certification: http://www.easa.europa.eu/ws_prod/g/...ndment%202.pdf Seem's they forget the volcanic ashes :) |
You don't fly into this ash no matter what.
Yes its costing millions per day, so what. When they say its safe to fly we take to the skies again. But we don't unless they say its safe and no risk at all. Airline management and loss revenues don't have any say so in this problem. Not marketing selling tooth brushes or airline seats anymore. Common sense applies here. Sorry the marketing ones may lose some bonus here for loss of revenue. Hope they finally figure out that safety is more important than there wallet. |
Here is a interesting link to earthquake activity leading up to the eruption. Sorry if it has been posted before
DataMarket | Jarðskjálftar og eldgos í Eyjafjallajökli 2010 |
Restrictions now continuing until 19:00 Sunday according to BBC / CNN.
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Hi,
The airline has paralysis in much of Europe is not just commercial flights. De nombreuses personnalités ont également dû modifier leurs projets. Many celebrities have also had to change their plans. Ainsi, plusieurs chefs d'Etats ne pourront sans doute pas assister aux obsèques du président polonais Lech Kaczynski , dimanche 18 avril à Cracovie, l'espace aérien du pays étant fermé. Thus, several heads of states could probably not attend the funeral of Polish President Lech Kaczynski , Sunday, April 18 in Krakow, the country's airspace is closed. Samedi matin, l'Elysée annonçait cependant le maintien du déplacement de Nicolas Sarkozy . Saturday morning, the Elysee Palace announced yet maintaining the displacement of Nicolas Sarkozy . Le premier ministre estonien, Andrus Ansip , le président du Parlement européen, Jerzy Buzek , ou le président slovaque, Ivan Gasparovic , devaient gagner la cité historique en automobile, alors que le président tchèque, Vaclav Klaus , comptait s'y rendre en train. The Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip , President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek , or the Slovak President, Ivan Gasparovic , had to win this historic city by car, while the Czech president, Vaclav Klaus , had to reach by train. Google Traduire From the french Govt: Google Bericht So the french president must be on the road .. at this hour .. but it's no news of a departure by road or train from France of Sarkozy If he go by plane ........ what we can conclude ? :) |
"Roy
Poland is curently in the process of burying 96 people that has been flown by the pilot who has not shown signs of 'cowardice' and landed where/when it has been deemed unsafe (unsuitable wx)." Well, I wouldn't really call it "landed"... |
peck:
Does anyone heard of measurements of the Volcanic cloud in terms of milligrams per cubic meter (Dispersed ash in air)?. Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ? These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects. After all, bird ingestion tests are well defined (numbers and size) for engine certification, as are water ingestion etc. tests. But we have empirical evidence that engines are no match for a couple of Canadian geese. Give us some numbers for a design standard, and someone will certify an ash-proof engine. |
This volcano last erupted in 1821 and it spewed ash for TWO years. So if you are stuck somewhere and waiting expectantly for a resumption of flights in the not too distant future, think again. If the ash density is such that it is unsafe to fly today, it can only become less safe as the ash density continues to build as more and more debris is thrown into the skies over Europe and beyond.
Happy landings and stay safe. |
Again safety is put after revenue!!!
I thought safety was the number one priority for all airlines? I am mistaken - they show their true colours and we are resorting to making money. Do you want to repeat Speedbird 9 from a few years ago then go right ahead. I and my crew will not be accepting any flight through Volcanic Ash!!! |
Flying through the ash
These test flies are just the beginning of the things that may be necessary to do. Even when they establish certain threshold of ash concentration, below which it is "not dangerous" to fly, that is not enough, nor does it mean very much. Below critical ash density can also cause damage over time. Two most important parameters are probably accumulation of the dust inside engines and other critical surfaces, and accumulation of the microscopic dust damage - and not simply local dust density. And to be able to predict them in advance, during the trajectory planning stage, it will be necessary to have some very sophisticated monitoring system. If this does not stop very soon, dust concentrations will become almost unpredictable, possibly abruptly changing depending on the place, time, altitude, moisture, history of the winds at various levels and so on. Detailed remote measurement and on board sensors may be the only way. I am not sure if remote monitoring system with necessary high resolution for measuring local densities at various levels even exists now. And even if it does, it will be cat and mouse game. Finding the current route with the smallest ratio of accumulated dust / cost of the trajectory. And constantly hoping that accumulated damage to the system has not become greater then its ability to withstand some unexpected stress that may be required. It's not going to be easy. And it is certainly going to be more expensive. So lets hope that it will stop very soon.
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Rubik, you have hit the nail on the head.
My reference: Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres The latest bullitin from the Volcanic Ask Advisory Centre in London shows the observed cloud from Surface to FL200 to stretch from the eastern Atlantic to the Urals and from the tip of Scandanavia to the south of central Europe. If Civil aviation is not to stay grounded for the years that this volcano may continue to spew out its ash and particles, a "Command Judgement" will have to be made soon to get airborne again. The best estimate of the plume height is FL280. Clearly the plume and its hazards must be avoided. However, the density of the ash now spread over such a vast area is diminishing all the time. Moreover, there is now plenty of evidence that the ash is reaching the surface. However, the remarks section of the warning states: "ASH CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN INDICATED AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. NO SIGNIFICANT RISK ABOVE FL350". We cannot stay grounded forever while ash is airborne. We need a much better risk analysis tool and than simply an ash cloud diagram containing a million square mile area which has to be avoided by all aircraft. |
This autocratic shutting down of all airspace is way too much big brother, all started by MR Brown. It should be up to the operator, and ultimately the passenger to decide if the risks are worth taking. All dramatic references to a BA flight, or other unfortunate earlier flights which flew straight into the centre of an unchartered dense volcanic plume, do not apply today, We are all well aware of the risk of doing that, which is why we have extra vigilance on volcanic activity. But over the whole of Europe what is the particle density, its mostly parts per billion. The more spread out it gets the thinner it becomes, therefore less risk is reasonable to surmise. Are the Asians going to be shutting down their airspace when this blows far enough east? Over time this may cause damage and maintenance issues, so just reduce the TBO,- if you see a sign on Blackpool beach saying caution polluted waters, it doesn’t stop you from swimming if you want to- the risk is yours, if you prefer not to then don’t, hundreds of thousands of passengers are stranded around the globe what would they say-This eruption could last weeks, months, even years- how long will airspace be shutdown, with thousands of people sleeping rough at airports, how long before we start seeing flight crew layoffs, so airlines can reduce costs, something will have to give somewhere.
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As a result of aviation stoppage I am no longer a paid worker. However I wont fall victim to fear and greed by trying to justify my plane into the air until proper investigative work has been done given the experience of the likes of the Finnish air force and unknown long/ medium term effects. Theoretically there is so much that can go wrong its not funny and certainly not worth letting the health of the industry dictate , thats akin to saying its too expensive to replace asbestos in terms of human health. KLMs few orbits at altitude prove nothing since they are unable to verify if they are flying through anything dangerous and besides what is the difference between 30 minutes of exposure and 4 hours? The notion that in Ireland and the UK the density in PPM is decreasing would only be true if the volcano had stopped spewing ash into the atmosphere which it has not. As for Brown being responsible , get a grip the first closure was not in the UK.
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They are flying till the first accident. Russians always learn on their own mistakes. E.g., here is a couple of excerpts from the latest Kamchatka advisory: KLYUCHEVSKOY VOLCANO; 56° 03'N, 160° 39'E; Elevation 4,750 m AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE Explosive-effusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 7.0 km (>23,000 ft)ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft. SHEVELUCH VOLCANO: 56°38'N, 161°19'E; Elevation 3,283 m, the dome elevation ~2,500 m AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE Explosive-extrusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft. |
Are those active right now ?
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Yes, they are:
Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity KVERT INFORMATION RELEASE 17-10 Thursday, April 15, 2010, 22:45 UTC (Friday, April 16, 10:45 KDT) |
Cheers, looks a different kettle of fish though in terms of output ? Your reports above suggest that more serious erruptions "might" occur but have not as of yet.
Activity at Shiveluch Volcano : Natural Hazards |
It looks flights will be partly restrated by Monday afternoon.
Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected. |
Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected. |
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