Check out this link it updates by refresh the Volcano is 3 pictures down its pretty active now

Link: Mulakot - myndavelar

Lufthansa and Condor all repositioned flights from Munich to Frankfurt today...they all flew VFR and the majority at fl 125. The first was inspected by engineers at Frankfurt and given the all clear and the rest followed......

Insanity or not, throughout the history of aviation the only way to gather important safety data in many contexts has been through test flights. The only way to know what happens is to go up there. That's what test pilots and test aircraft are for. You use only volunteers.

The alternative is to continue in near total ignorance of the real effects of volcanic ash, and if you don't know the effects, the only true safe course of action it to keep everything grounded as long as there's any ash anywhere. That's not a practical route for the long term, should the eruptions continue for two years, as they have in the past.

It may well be that no amount of ash is acceptable, but the only way to know for sure is to go up and fly through it.

Right now, the actions being taken are actually far more dangerous. Allowing a few flights through areas that look like they might be safe is very risky. And I'm certain that the "inspections" being done to look for damage are incomplete. The only way to inspect for damage from volcanic ash is to inspect every part of the airplane into which ash can penetrate, which essentially means the entire airframe. Nobody has had time to do that so far, so it is certain that nobody has done it. At the very least, the engines need to be completely disassembled, not just glanced at or partially disassembled. And every other part of the airplane that ash may touch needs to be checked, too.

The fact that a flight arrives safely with no noticeable problems does NOT mean that the ash had no effect. It may have caused damage that won't be apparent until several flights later.

In short, instead of going up and doing extensive, deliberate, careful tests with willing volunteers, it looks like airlines and the authorities are going to roll the dice with flights that attempt to avoid the heaviest ash concentrations, and declare them safe if the airplanes don't fall out of the sky. As time passes, they'll take more and more risks, and perhaps do more and more damage that will bring aircraft down after the ash is gone. That is what I call insanity.

Volcanic Ash Build-up


http://www.skybrary.aero/images/Volc...h_Build-up.jpg

source: NASA/TM-2003-212030, Engine Damage to a NASA DC-8-72 Airplane From a High-Altitude Encounter With a Diffuse Volcanic Ash Cloud. Thomas J. Grindle, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California and Frank W. Burcham, Jr. Analytical Services and Materials, Inc. Edwards, California, August 2003.

Erosion due to Volcanic Ash
http://www.skybrary.aero/images/Eros...lcanic_Ash.jpg

source: NASA/TM-2003-212030, Engine Damage to a NASA DC-8-72 Airplane From a High-Altitude Encounter With a Diffuse Volcanic Ash Cloud. Thomas J. Grindle, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California and Frank W. Burcham, Jr. Analytical Services and Materials, Inc. Edwards, California, August 2003.

Both pictures are from SKYbrary - Volcanic Ash

Seems to be reason enough to not fly, or?

Apparently there is a strong link between the two volcanoes going back to the year 920. From what I read Katia normally goes off every 50-60 years. Last big one was in 1918 although there might have been a smaller on in 1955. So we're about due. It's also been rumbling since 1999.

Another big volcano in Iceland let go in 1783...

Laki - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

selected extracts..

It started 8th June 1783.

The summer of 1783 was the hottest on record and a rare high pressure zone over Iceland caused the winds to blow to the south-east. The poisonous cloud drifted to Bergen in Norway, then spread to Prague in the Province of Bohemia by 17 June, Berlin by 18 June, Paris by 20 June, Le Havre by 22 June, and to Great Britain by 23 June. The fog was so thick that boats stayed in port, unable to navigate, and the sun was described as "blood coloured".

In Great Britain, the records show that the additional deaths were outdoor workers, and perhaps 2-3 times above the normal rate in Bedfordshire, Lincolnshire and the east coast. It has been estimated that 23,000 British people died from the poisoning in August and September.

The haze also heated up, causing severe thunderstorms with hailstones that were reported to have killed cattle, until it dissipated in the autumn. This disruption then led to a most severe winter in 1784, in which Gilbert White at Selborne in Hampshire reported 28 days of continuous frost. The extreme winter is estimated to have caused 8,000 additional deaths in the UK. In the spring thaw, Germany and Central Europe then reported severe flood damage

Thanks guy...just wondering..because some operators were asking for a kind of derogation...to fly low for "transplant" mission..;and also regarding the french idea to fly military planes to enable french tourists to get home..
I was supposing they're flying in a different sky then we do !!!!:confused:

You beat me to the response.

Can you imagine the uproar on this forum in a years time if a plane comes down (god forbid) and the cause is due to damage sustained by flying through ash over the coming days. I can imagine it taking less than 10 posts for someone to blame the authorities for allowing planes to fly.

We're talking about people lives here, and yes it's a great inconvenience to us all, however lets pause for a moment about the pain and loss that would be caused to people if the authorities/airlines got it wrong.

If you look across on the flyertalk forums, it generally full of very frustrated, yet understanding travellers. They'd rather be safe than sorry.

KLM705 - climbing over Amsterdam
 

Anybody know whats going on with flight labelled KLM705 took off B737 (PH-BGB) took off from Schipol 30 mins ago climbed to FL380 and currently circling over Amsterdam?

Why are aeroplanes flying where risk may be increased? Isn't this what weather balloons are supposed to do? Launch into the plume with remotely controlled height regulating equipment.

Flying boats, it's the only answer y'know.

KLM705
 

KLM705 is a 737-406 test flight sent up by KLM at the request of the EU.

Been sent up to test the effects of ash on parts of the aircraft.

You can follow it on ThatStupidPlace as AshAlerts

Tail number is PH-BDU

http://www.fotograafpeter.nl/data/al...l_ph-bdu-2.jpg

geography and geology
 

I've followed this thread with interest and some commenters have commented about other volcanic eruptions elsewhere in the world and their apparent lack of effect on air traffic. Their location is one factor; mostly around the pacific rim and many in the southern hemisphere; should one look at prevailing winds, concentration of landmasses, population density and airspace options in these areas one would notice there are far more options for avoidance as well as posing far less of a hazzard for airports (as there are very few in the middle of the pacific, large swathes of south America, northern Canada, etc.). Secondly, the volcano in question is under a glacier and, from what I can so far ascertain, it is this that is creating the levels of ash that are causing problems....molten rock meets water and....(I may be wrong but from what I have read this seems to be a factor).

All very frustrating but personally, would rather be safe than.....

And yes, hopefully this will provide an opportunity to research this further. It hasn't probably been investigated as thoroughly as it should perhaps because of aforementioned relative lack of occurrence in busy airspace.

Another project of "Jugend forscht" ?

Evidence
 

I washed the screen of my car this afternoon with plenty of water to get rid of a fair bit of 'dust' that's settled on it since yesterday.
In the two hours since then it has accumulated more - but this time some larger jagged pin-head size pieces.

I would post a picture, but the one I posted yesterday was deleted, I don't want to be accused of being a 'spotter' or a 'breathless enthusiast' (I am neither) as happened yesterday.

There is definately crap falling from the CAVOK sky in southern England, and it's doing it now.

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/5...00417at192.jpg

Making pretty circles in the sky.

Let us not also forget the effect this is having on many companies that make a living from the airports, truckers, cargo agents, etc. I have just returned from a shift at a mail hub and they are struggling, if this carries on it will effect many smaller companies first. Govenment would likely step in and save big airlines, but the smaller companies would collapse first.

I think KLM have done a CBA on this. They must be losing money at the rate of 2-3 CFM56's a day. So put a plane up and see what happens.
If it trashes the engines, so be it; now we know.
If it flames out, they're at FL380 and can do a power off landing anywhere within 150 NM. That might sound a bit challenging to those not used to that maneuver, but its actually not that tricky - if you've done it before. Any military pilot/UN/ICRC pilot is used to doing them in high threat areas. Mind you, I'm not conversant with what the B737 they've chosen for the job can do if it flames out on both and the APU chokes as well. Manual reversion? Keep the gear down as a precaution? Some fluffy driver jump in here.

There's a lack of hard data here and that void needs to be filled urgently. The Finnish F18's do not make it seem likely that it will be a positive outcome, but for the sake of the industry we have to know. And two engines is a cheap price to pay given the alternative. Desperate times mandate desperate measures. Kudos to KLM for leading the way.

I do not normally post on this forum as I'm not a pilot, but someone who had worked for RR Research and Development for some 20 years at their Parkside Works Coventry.
I Have always had the greatest respect for those who sit at the pointy end, but reading some of the postings on this thread leads me to believe that some are a little short of the full shilling, I have no problem with those who wish to committing suicide in fact I believe that is their human right, but I and other SLF have no wish to accompany them.
It has been stated more times than I care to think of, from both Engine Manufacturers and all of the other "Experts" that go to make your Shiny Alum Tube stay in the air. If even a small amount of volcanic ash is ingested into the engine it will melt in the combustion chamber and probably coat the combustion chamber cooling holes with glass, when that happens the flame just burns out the combustion chamber walls, so V hot gasses bypass the mouth of the chamber and turbine, creating havoc to say the least with the rest of the engine, that is without the problems of molten glass on the turbine blades and stator vanes. blocking the cooling holes on the leading and trailing edges of the vanes . As the combustion gasses temperatures are a lot high than the melting point of engines components not only will the turbine blades and vanes fail or start to melt, but also the compressor walls can be affected all of this leads to basically. No blades, no combustion chamber, no compressor walls, then your big alum tube becomes a very poor glider. Of course this doesn't include the abrasive effect on your big shiny tube and engines If this doesn't convince you doubters, I suggest you nip down to your local Garage or Engineering works and try standing in front of their bead or sand blasting equipment, when you have achieved that ,if there is any remains left of you,then come back here and tell everybody that this grounding is just over reaction, Me after reading some of your comments I have no intension of trusting my worthless life in your hands again, I'll stick to terra firma and I hope now that you experts in flying, will leave the experts in Engineering to advise on what is safest not only for the Aircraft and Engines but also possibly less in you opinion, us SLF
oldie

Anyone from engineering care to jump in and say how certain they are of being able to detect latent damage to the engines from the test flight (or any other)?

No smell of sulphur in the cabin, only a slight stink of bull!!!!:
http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c1...lessCruise.jpg

FL410 over the upwind edge of a cloud which has a promulgated top of less than FL200 and which has always been declared not to exist above FL350.

Who is bull!!!!ting whom with this absurd cruise?

Very Dutch.

hello,

i'm new to this forum (as you can see) although I have been reading it quite often.

I'm no pilot, no engineer, no meteorologist, no expert. I like planes, I try to understand as much as I can about them, so forgive me if what i'm just about to say is complete nonsense.

This volcano erupted. The ash cloud is moving and incidentally is covering Europe.
My first question is: is it possible that the same concentration of ash found in the sky around the volcano is the same one found near, i don't know, Heathrow airport for example? if yes, does that mean that when someone blows the smoke of a cigarette away, this very smoke has the same concentration always and will never disperse? I apologise in advance if this sounds mad to you, my physics studies stopped quite early.

Second question: I live in the north of Italy and the ban has been applied to our airspace as well. It's been raining for the past two days and here and there i've read that if the wind changes and along comes the rain, everything will be cleared away and no more ash. So, if that's true, why is it that no planes are allowed here? (i live near BGY). Shouldn't the rain have cleared away the ashes? But of course if it's the same concentration found near the volcano, then it makes sense.

And also, if it's true that the ash could spread all over the hemisphere, what's going to happen? haven't other volcanoes erupted in the past years and spread their ash all around? were there other accidents involving planes flying in ash clouds? was the BA the only plane ever to fly through it?

Last question: weather forecast says that there are not going to be any noticeable changes in the wind/pressure meaning that the ash could hover around for days. Isn't it weird that Europe is always subjected to a very tempremental weather and now out of the blue no wind, no rain, no low pressure?

I'm sorry for asking so many questions, but I can't seem to find a satisfying answer anywhere. Thank you.

shirayuki

KLM pilots reported "operation normal" to Maastricht UAC shortly after reaching FL410. Now let's wait for the results....

shirayuki,
Clouds as large as this one disperse and diffuse very slowly; especially in quiet weather. I would not be surprised if peak concentrations above the UK were 80% or so of when the cloud left the Icelandic coast.

That's true for the lower atmosphere; however a large part of the ash is above the rain clouds.

MathFox

thank you for the clear answer.

Would UAV be any good to check the "intensity " of the cloud or the consequences?

Is ash worse than Harmattan?
 

I have flown in Nigeria for many years, and for 6 months of the year, up to about FL100 there is constant Harmattan dust in the air. Sometimes so thick that the visibility can be reduced to 400 M. Yet everyone keeps flying in this dust/sand from the Sahara. Yes, over time it erodes the turbine blades and things, but engines do not stop.

I understand that the BA Aircraft that had all engines stop flew through the thick plume created by the volcano near Indonesia.

So why is invisible ash deemed to be so dangerous?

new enhanced satellite photo
 

Looks like ash concentration over the continent is pretty minimal?

http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/Sit...rty=poster.png

Rispud :ugh:, because it erodes engines, windscreens, leading edges.
I'm glad there's nothing good on telly, this is so entertaining.

Flight status display

Look at this! This Russian fleet is flying like nothing has happened. Do they have more info on concentration and the effects on a/c?
Might check other sites, I bet they are operating as usually. Difference - they have military ATC, not civilians.

Tim
 

I think you will find that the ash clouds that have done the damage in the past to eg. BA009 and the NASA aeroplane were in visible ash cloud, not invisible ash cloud. Emperor and new clothes comes to mind.:)

Regards

Well....this applies even more to people resting in their arm chairs uttering something like "What the hell...only hysterical overreacting cowards everywhere....let them fly, and if some drop out of the sky, who cares"....

The risks of flying through volcanic ash clouds is well documented by various incidents. Its a KNOWN RISK.
The risk level in dependence on the particle concentration, composition of the ash cloud, etc might be not fully understand, but 'real life experiments' with thousends of passengers to assess this risk 'in more detail' are definitely not the way to go.

So the 'better safe than sorry' logic of the desicion makers is the only right option in my eyes. And in contrast to the 'arm chair dare devils', those guys might actually feel responsible for aviation safety and also have a fair chance of being sued if anything happens.

As already suggested above, real test flights are the only option to assess the risk more precisely. Now is the perfect time to do this. This KLM flight is the right step forward.

Regards, ihg

test flights made in France and Belgium as well?
 

Reuters is quoting Dutch officials as saying there were also test flights made today in France and Belgium at the request of the EU? Does anyone have any info on these?

Why would anyone have a UAV already kitted out with the necessary instrumentation?

(You could gaffer-tape a sticky lampshade to the fuselage, examine it on landing and say "yep, there's sharp glass bits somewhere up there". But designing and building instruments that can tell you anything quantitative is going to take, er, a few days.)

It's your turn to look up the turbine blade temperatures on a range of jet-propelled UAVs and compare them with those for a range of commercial aviation donks...

Too much doom and gloom on here today when we should be concentrating on overcoming the worst of the situation.

At least there are some test flights in the air flown by people who know what where and how to conduct test flights.

Not all ash is disasterous and without the sampling one can not tell what altitudes are the most risky vs operating temperature of the engines. remember we have operated for 50 years with volcanos. A little bit of science and risk management goes a long way to live in this world.

Let the scientific knowledge and risk management do what's needed. That's the way aviation has always worked.

Volcanic ash is very different from sand:

- Sand usually has a much higher melt point (1300C and up) than volcanic ash (600C). This means that sand goes through a turbine with abrasive effects only, volcanis ash melt and adheres, causing other issues.

- Sand is usually far more "rounded" and worn down grains of material than volcanic ash, which is usually very sharp shards of a glass like substance. Inhaling this can quickly cause respiratory issues.

-A

KLM explanation
 

KLM presedent Hartman explaned:
Its been enough he said: this morning there where test flights in germany.
There was no problem at all !
Also investigators from NASA explaned that the concentration dust is low and no danger for airplanes.

But Its impossible to talk with eurocontrol in brussels he begged to fly again.
Untill now no permission and eurocontrol is not prepared to talk. and Hartman is frustated about this.

The flight kl 705 will be inspected directly after landing.
(tonight he will come with results)
When nothing is wrong than flights can leave from far destinations on there journey to europe allready.

he said that when this happens other airliners will start fly destination Schiphol tomorrow.

Seems that Hartman indeed has hot feet and is going for war........


(Dutch text)
,,Het is genoeg geweest. Het heeft nu lang genoeg geduurd, we willen vliegen”, aldus KLM-topman Hartman. ,,Vanmorgen zijn in Duitsland enkele proefvluchten uitgevoerd tussen Munchen en Frankfurt. Er blijkt niets aan de hand”, aldus de KLM-baas.
Volgens Hartman zeggen ook onderzoekers van NASA dat de concentratie stofdeeltjes meevalt en waarschijnlijk geen gevaar oplevert voor de luchtvaart.
,,Tot onze ergernis viel er niet over te praten. We smeken daarom nu bij Eurocontrol in Brussel om weer te mogen vliegen, maar tot dusver krijgen we geen toestemming”, aldus een gefrustreerde Hartman.
Volgens de KLM-baas zal het toest direct na aankomst uitgebreid geïnspecteerd worden. ,,Wanneer er niets aan de hand is kunnen kort daarna vanuit verre bestemmingen ook toestellen met passagiers aan de reis naar Europa gaan beginnen.”
Indien dat het geval is zullen waarschijnlijk morgen ook andere maatschappijen hun dienstregeling van en naar Schiphol weer willen opstarten.

PIK - Ark Royal disembarking 8 Harriers in 4 pairs....
BA were planning to send the B747 & B777 that landed from the USA this morning back there this evening, but seems not to be happening.

worth having a look at the volcano itself webcams at the moment - looks like its just had a very powerful explosion indeed

now 1300 tomorrow

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Saturday April 17, 2037

The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland is moving around and changing shape. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 1300 (UK time) tomorrow, Sunday 18 April.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 0300 (UK time), Sunday 18 April.

ihg you're right to criticise the rash tone of earlier posts; but "better safe than sorry" doesn't cut it unless there's also an explanation of why this eruption is so much more dangerous than scores of others we've seen around the world. In every other case the risk -as with all the other risks we face daily -has been monitored and managed. Not met with a massive indefinite airspace closure!