Sky high? you don't try to get insurance after the event has happened. Insurance for volcanic interruption would have been very cheap if it had been obtained at the beginning of the year.

Once again, this all makes little sense. Why are we closing airspace, yesterday there was no ash in Ireland. But PIREP of ash of Leicester ?

Something very strange is going on, Eurocontrol is stepping up the One European Skies timetable and using the AshcLoud as a lever.

The thing I don't understand is why the ash clousures aren't affected night operations? I have no problem during the day avoiding the stuff visually.

Latest from the Volcano, I wouldn't recommend getting downwind of this!

But over 1000kms South :ugh:

http://extras.vodafone.is/trailers/f...5/04/10/49.jpg

Meanwhile, some scum are trying to cash in with this scam..

BBC NEWS | UK | Wales | Ash compensation e-mail 'is fake'

From yesterday's coast guard flight : ash volumes increasing but heavier density than original activity.
Earthquake activity suggesting more to come.

http://www.vedur.is/media/jar/myndsa...12f4138fee.jpg

yup - that's what I said!!
...

BOAC

As long as it is medium or longterm damage and not "instant" damage that is of little concern to us other than through increased airfares to cover the extra maintenance and rectification work.

That problem becomes a business cost problem and not a safety issue.
What I would like to ask the sooth sayers here is what their solution is?

Barring a detailed research programme into the damage effects of low level ash which will still need field testing what are the alternatives?

Do you close down masses of airspace which may contain tiny amounts of ash until they are totally clear?

Or do you take a slightly less cautious approach?

We already identified that as yet NO aircraft has been downed with loss of life because of ash. That even includes heavy ash encounters.

That cannot be said of Bird strikes yet we accept those risks as we do other risks which do have a fatality record.

Let us just hope that in this latest eruption the ash is not directed and held over the UK for days like last time.

Pace

FAA Statement on Volcanic Ash. Before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics on Mitigating the Impact of Volcanic Ash Clouds on Aviation – What Do We Need To Know?

Testimony

usual american stuff but nothing about piston engines
 

Is there any evidence of non visible ash damaging piston engines?

Forget

This is the bit which becomes very vague

Pace

Greinar < Fróðleikur < Jarðhræringar < Veðurstofa Íslands

Cracking photos of what cracking off up there in Iceland, status reports indicate that activity is increasing compared with last week, need some low pressure to move the ash clouds.

And to the Air Lingus crew flying into Dublin this morning:
Please tell us all what ash smells like :confused: , since your radio transmissions reporting to all that you can smell ash while descending through 16000ft -perhaps your galley stoves are cooking overtime, or engines ... :ok:

Turbo twin just landed at Dundee 30 mins or so ago..

At this QTH (Wirral) at sea level it smelt faintly like a blast furnace or perhaps a foundry on the two due dates here.

Hard to articulate it any more clearly than that; it's distinctive and memorable and BBQ it ain't.

CW

Airforce1
 

Suggest you pay a visit to Yellowstone, particularly downwind of a paint pot (bubbling colored puddle of volcanic mud) and you'll know what it smells like.

Pace:

1. While the cost may be of little concern to you, I can assure you that a mistake on the part of the engine manufacturers, airframe builders, airlines, met office and regulators is likely to be extremely costly. It's not even about the cost of the components to be replaced, It's about the logistics of suddenly requiring the inspection, repair or replacement of perhaps hundreds of engines per day.

There are about 1000 transatlantic flights to and from Europe per day. Say 10% get a mouthful of ash. Guessing the mix of Two, and Four engine aircraft, lets say that we have 300+ affected engines. There is simply not enough labour, spare engines or spare parts, or component repair capacity to handle this workload - and this is only in one day!

2. The only "alternative" I'm aware of is not to fly the aircraft in Ash.


To put it another way, in terms you might understand better, let us say that by some ungodly mistake, extremely sharp nails were scattered over the length and breadth of British roads, such that one in Ten cars found themselves with a puncture each day.

The queues at garages on day one would be a mile long. By day Two all garages are out of new tyres and repair materials and their staff are exhausted. At the end of day Three, there is not a spare tyre or tube to be found in Britain and the motorways and roads are littered with disabled cars.

Do you get the picture now?

Supposed to flying ex MAN - DUB - MCO tomorrow ....but
 

I need help ! Can I get this right in my head that where the VAC charts show red this is the DANGER area and a/c will not be flying there ??? So - looking like DUB is gonna be out for some time tomorrow .............. sort me out !!:rolleyes:

Katla itself just had a tremor, with 4 new ones at Eyjafjallajökull.

Am not a volcanoligist so have no clue if this has any meaning.

Edit: if Katla goes, at least we can spell and pronounce it the other one just sounds like egg falafel

so......can you ?
 

I need help ! Can I get this right in my head that where the VAC charts show red this is the DANGER area and a/c will not be flying there ??? So - looking like DUB is gonna be out for some time tomorrow .............. sort me out !!:rolleyes:

Sunfish

I noted all the aircraft being stripped caused by the last ash pollution after the authorities raised the acceptable ash levels.
It was amazing to watch all the engineers working around the clock to deal with a mass of parked up damaged aircraft.

Do I get the picture? :ugh:

Oh well whatever makes you happy ;)

Pace

Let me give you some experiences from the time of Mount St Helens in the USA, from those who were right alongside, and in comparison to which this Iceland volcano is a mere pimple in comparison.

Roads downwind were so extensively covered that they had to get snowploughs out; quite some damage was done by trees being overwhelmed by the weight of ash deposited o them, and they fell over.

Yet damage to reciprocating engines of various types was really non-existent. Railway locomotives on lines downwind were fine and carried on, provided they changed the air flters every day, cars were similar. I don't recall any increase in mechanical problems after the ash, although there was a lot of cleaning. Don't know about GA in the area but certainly airline service in the downwind area was little affected. And this was ash you could see.

Met Office Ash Concentration Charts
 

Richeterscale10

Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts

The Met Office charts that show the two levels of ash densities look promising for the UK/Ireland tomorrow. The solid black area is the "no-go" area of high ash conc. which the CAA also gives an additional 60nm buffer to ..

The solid red area is the lower level of ash density which the authorities says is ok to fly in now ....

It's the solid black area and the 60nm buffer that has caused problems today ..

The other original Met Office Ash charts show the general area of Ash down to a low level of particle concentration that take no account of the recently defined "ok to operate in low ash density areas" - and those have the red boardered areas.

hope that helps.

Dublin airport is expected to resume operations at 4AM tomorrow morning...

Ash concentrations should have sufficiently diminished at that time with Northeasterly winds kicking in allow a gradual resumption of operations, spreading from airports in the East to the West in Ireland during the day.

Just to clarify:

On the Met Office charts:
Red area= 2*10^2 mg/m^3 ash concentration

Black area= 2*10^3 mg/m^3 ash concentration. In other words, the concentration at the edges of the black contour is 10* that at the edges of the red area.

Around the black area is added a (non uniform) ~60nm buffer zone, to allow for shifts from one 'snapshot' to the next, six hours later. This is the 'no-fly' zone.

Update on Eyjafjalljokull
 

Magma intrusion - 05 May 2010 13:40

Since Monday 3 May, increased earthquake activity beneath Eyjafjallajökull has been recorded. Precise locations of the earthquakes show that their source is at first very deep, at about 23 km depth, but then migrates upwards. This strongly indicates that “new” magma is intruding into the magma conduit and pushing on the over-lying magma, causing a difference in pressure at the surface. It is therefore anticipated that the eruption will continue at full force in the next days.

Significant changes in horizontal movement at GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull have been observed in the last 48 hours. Renewed northward displacement is seen at stations BAS2 and STE2, located just north of the ice cap. To the south, westward movement is apparent at THEY (see figure below), while station FIM2 - located further east - shows eastward movement.

The distribution of earthquake activity in the magma conduit could also indicate the location of the magma chamber that has fuelled the eruption since 14 April. It is considered to be at a depth of approx. 3-5 kilometers, in an area where no earthquakes are detected.

The movement described in second paragraph does not bode well for this volcano (i.e. could signal another major eruption). Good news is that the same service reported (as of yesterday's report) that there are no geophysical changes within the Katla volcano. Let's hope for the best.

Lobo
Geologist at large

Guys - thanks !!
 

Guys - thanks for all your help - looks like we're off !!:ok:

As one who, many years ago, made the transition from Geology to ATC, this is all fascinating stuff.
Safe flying, as always.
ZOOKS.

First signs of seismic activity on the "slopes" of Katla. Looks like it's little brother has awoken it's giant neighbour.

Earthquakes - Mýrdalsjökull

Katla is the larger mound in the Myrdalsjokull area

Katla is, (allegedly), like Halley's Comet. - A 'once in a lifetime' experience.
Enjoy. :ok:

What ever so slightly worries me is the lack of awareness exhibited by line crew of the required enhanced procedures - whatever they may be for each individual type - or knowledge of the results of the risk assessment required by FODCOM 12/2010 (at least as concerns UK operators) or ability to interpret the (for want of a better description) "charts" and the implications of ops in the red zone ... you mean you've had no NOTAC, no policy document, no communication at all? Jeez. Good to see the safety culture is alive and well. :ugh:

Been cloudy as hell around the volcano today. Very small "weather windows" when viewing the webcams, but when the cloud does clear briefly, it shows this HUGE plume. :ouch:

http://i904.photobucket.com/albums/a...2009/blast.jpg

Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli

Assessment - 05 May 2010 20:50

Increased seismicity suggests that new material is intruding from deep below Eyjafjallajökull and latest GPS-observations suggest inflation. So far, GPS-signals are not large.

Plume at 5.5-6.5 km height (a.s.l.) according to IMO's weather radar.

Due to mild weather and snowmelt, increase in discharge was noticed in Markarfljót peaking at midnight. Discharge from Gígjökull seems to be decreasing and oscillations in water temperature at the old Markarfljóts bridge relate to air temperature. Pulses of meltwater from Gígjökull are unnoticeable.

Lava flows to the north and spreads at 500 m a.s.l. The lava tongue is about 200 m wide and lava channels that join at the tongue are about 30-60 m wide. The lava channels gets wider every day.

There are no signs that the eruption is about to end.

Actually there was another earthquake on Katla a few days ago.

WHBM
Let me give you some experiences from the time of Mount St Helens in the USA, from those who were right alongside, and in comparison to which this Iceland volcano is a mere pimple in comparison.

Roads downwind were so extensively covered that they had to get snowploughs out; quite some damage was done by trees being overwhelmed by the weight of ash deposited o them, and they fell over.

Yet damage to reciprocating engines of various types was really non-existent. Railway locomotives on lines downwind were fine and carried on, provided they changed the air flters every day, cars were similar. I don't recall any increase in mechanical problems after the ash, although there was a lot of cleaning. Don't know about GA in the area but certainly airline service in the downwind area was little affected. And this was ash you could see.

This may be so for land-based vehicles but as far as I know, an aircraft does not have a designated air filter similar to a land-based machine.


Mike

With all the talk of man made global warming, the planned job creation and tax revenue from carbon taxes does anyone know how much these volcanos contribute to Global warming, how much carbon and pollutants they throw into the atmosphere compared to man made pollution?

It is strange how we name Volcanos and almost refer to them with affection and admiration but little seems to be discussed on their contribution to the warming up of the planet.

Does anyone have any figures or info?

Pace

SO2 can produce substantial cooling.
The above link shows the increase in SO2 production today compared to previous (selectable on right)

It seems absolutely extraordinary to me that 'the industry' (mainly the airlines themselves and aircraft leasing companies) seem to have tucked their heads back under their duvets and tried to carry on as usual despite now flying through at least SOME ash.

As Sunfish points out, the worst-case scenario is a catastrophic increase in engine maintenance, far beyond the capacity of engineering and parts-supply. Well before that point is reached, there are unpleasant operating cost implications for any operator covering routes anywhere in N Europe.

It would be nice to think that company managements are already fully-engaged with this and are collecting detailed data (from whatever sources) about what quantities of ash their aircraft are being exposed to, on individual flights and cumulatively. However, I've seen or heard nothing to suggest that much is being done.......

mmciau
 

Quote: This may be so for land-based vehicles but as far as I know, an aircraft does not have a designated air filter similar to a land-based machine

Most light aircraft air fliters are of "auotmotive" type, the after market Challenger fliters are automotive filters made by the well known K & N company. Challenger just got the STC to fit them to aircraft.