BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Quite... draconian, in their use of the latest government powers.......
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...ld-quarantine/
Coronavirus Brighton: Nurses at Mill View Hospital held in quarantine
Nurses are being held in quarantine after treating a patient with a new suspected case of coronavirus, a source has told The Argus.
Two nurses treating a woman at The Haven in Mill View hospital, Hove, are being kept in a room next door to the patient, the source said. It is understood the patient had recently returned from Hong Kong.
The two nurses at the psychiatric hospital have been held there since 8.30pm yesterday evening, the Argus was told. They have not been allowed to leave, and one of the nurses is said to be pregnant.
It comes after five people were confirmed to have the virus in the city.........
Sussex Partnership NHS trust initially refused to comment. But just before 8pm, a spokesman for the trust said: "As is the case across the NHS, if we identify any individual displaying some of the symptoms consistent with coronavirus we will take proportionate, timely action in line with Public Health England guidance."......
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...ld-quarantine/
Coronavirus Brighton: Nurses at Mill View Hospital held in quarantine
Nurses are being held in quarantine after treating a patient with a new suspected case of coronavirus, a source has told The Argus.
Two nurses treating a woman at The Haven in Mill View hospital, Hove, are being kept in a room next door to the patient, the source said. It is understood the patient had recently returned from Hong Kong.
The two nurses at the psychiatric hospital have been held there since 8.30pm yesterday evening, the Argus was told. They have not been allowed to leave, and one of the nurses is said to be pregnant.
It comes after five people were confirmed to have the virus in the city.........
Sussex Partnership NHS trust initially refused to comment. But just before 8pm, a spokesman for the trust said: "As is the case across the NHS, if we identify any individual displaying some of the symptoms consistent with coronavirus we will take proportionate, timely action in line with Public Health England guidance."......
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It’s gone a bit quiet concerning the Diamond Princess at Yokohama.
Media are still publishing the figure of infected folk from 2 days back. (originally reported as 136 - now as 135 cases).
This could be good news. Let’s hope so.
Media are still publishing the figure of infected folk from 2 days back. (originally reported as 136 - now as 135 cases).
This could be good news. Let’s hope so.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
It’s gone a bit quiet concerning the Diamond Princess at Yokohama. Media are still publishing the figure of infected folk from 2 days back. (originally reported as 136 - now as 135 cases). This could be good news. Let’s hope so.
Japan confirms 40 new coronavirus cases linked to cruise ship quarantined off Yokohama
Thirty-nine more passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and one quarantine officer have tested positive for the new coronavirus, health minister Katsunobu Kato said Wednesday morning. The new cases bring the total linked to the ship to 175.
“Out of 53 new test results, 39 people were found positive,” he told reporters, referring to the figure for passengers. He added that: “At this point, we have confirmed that four people, among those who are hospitalized, are in a serious condition, either on a ventilator or in an intensive care unit.”.......
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
First case in London confirmed
The Guardian has confirmed that a coronavirus case has been diagnosed in London. The victim is understood to be a woman and is on her way to hospital, a source said.Referring to the diagnosis in London that emerged less than an hour ago, the chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, has said:
One further patient in England has tested positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total number of cases in the UK to nine. This virus was passed on in China and the patient has now been transferred to a specialist NHS centre at Guy’s and St Thomas’ in London.
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Quite... draconian, in their use of the latest government powers.......
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...ld-quarantine/
Coronavirus Brighton: Nurses at Mill View Hospital held in quarantine
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...ld-quarantine/
Coronavirus Brighton: Nurses at Mill View Hospital held in quarantine
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/healt...says-singapore
50 cases
8 critical – with no discernible pattern among these 8
Population told to prepare that some may not survive
Singapore is probably the place to watch now. They appear to be completely transparent re this.
Chinese data is complete rubbish. They are too many rumours they have been under-reporting, and they changed their definition of the disease just as their leader promised the cases would start to fall.
We have been here before with China and Coronavirus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe...atory_syndrome
China was the only country in the world with meaningful numbers (over 100 cases) to report mortality less than 10% - everyone else was 2-3 x higher.
Currently 99% of the global data is from China. I wouldn't make any predictions based on that.
50 cases
8 critical – with no discernible pattern among these 8
Population told to prepare that some may not survive
Singapore is probably the place to watch now. They appear to be completely transparent re this.
Chinese data is complete rubbish. They are too many rumours they have been under-reporting, and they changed their definition of the disease just as their leader promised the cases would start to fall.
We have been here before with China and Coronavirus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe...atory_syndrome
China was the only country in the world with meaningful numbers (over 100 cases) to report mortality less than 10% - everyone else was 2-3 x higher.
Currently 99% of the global data is from China. I wouldn't make any predictions based on that.
Strange numbers from the Johns Hopkins site today, a huge jump of Chinese cases, from 44.7k yesterday to 59.6k today. Previous increases were in the 1k to 2k range.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Last edited by Winemaker; 13th Feb 2020 at 13:50.
Strange numbers from the John Hopkins site today, a huge jump of Chinese cases, from 44.7k yesterday to 59.6k today. Previous increases were in the 1k to 2k range.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
The nucleic acid test is in short supply and often gives false negatives early in the infection, as in the case of Dr Li Wenliang
Strange numbers from the John Hopkins site today, a huge jump of Chinese cases, from 44.7k yesterday to 59.6k today. Previous increases were in the 1k to 2k range.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
It may be:
- an improvement of the testing,
- a further outbreak such as from delayed symptoms
- a correction in underreporting of existing cases. That could be the result of the testing turnaround time, or the real figures being washed back into the data.
Not good news though for PRC at the very least. The rest of the world still lags in fatalities arising which may well indicate co factors exist.
The concern of the extended incubation period out to 24 days or so is a major complication on the face of it, however, that does not logically tie in with the general progression of illness from the virus. If the 24 days was the case from the get go, then the growth rate would have been explosive, at any level of infectiousness. The recent cases show multiple contacts occur resulting in spread, Each person appears to get about 3 others infected, per day (very roughly, it has been lower and higher). One person doing that for 24 days before any symptoms is going to give a major jump in numbers, even if they are not contagious for a couple of days, the breakout is very large.
Day 1: 1, Day 2: 1, Day 3: 4, Day 4:10, ... Day 24: 1,594,289
So assuming 24 days incubation prior to symptoms of any kind, and an initial period of 48 hours from contact to being infectious, then the progression would be 1.6M infections prior to first symptom appearing. Thereafter, the progression of symptoms would be around 59K (roughly todays number of cases) 18 days after first symptoms noted. The outbreak first symptoms were on or about 8th December. If the infection was 24 days prior, then the cases on 26 Dec would be around the 59K level, 30 days later, around 25 Jan 2020 we would have symptoms from 3.3 Billion people. That didn't happen, so there is a fair possibility that the 24 day incubation case is a shorter incubation from an unknown source. If indeed it was 24 days, then right now, we have all on this planet been infected... and essentially it is unfortunate to be immuno-compromised, and it'll sort itself out in the wash. That is merely based on 3 contacts per day per person, which is well below the level of contacts that the average adult has in any day. Each progression is unique but within a statistical spread, so that can be added to the equation as a Monte Carlo input.
It is possible to have a single delayed progression, all things are possible, but on average, the incubation period is going to be in the 4-12 day period, with the 24 day being an anomaly or a later contraction of the virus than presumed.
OTOH, if the great mass of the planet has already got the virus, then it has a lower adverse outcome than the seasonal flu does.
The recent increase in numbers should be considered in context, the Wuhan jump is in a region under major stress on resources, that affects accuracy and control and outcome mitigation efforts. Japan gets to add the cases of the cruise ships that are great concentrators of bugs on a good day. They also permit control of the development to an extent and provide isolation from the greater population.
The HAL cruise ship Westerdam is now allowed to dock in Cambodia (and disembark the pax)
BA canx's one of their 2 daily HKG's
The Cunard liner Queen Mary canx's all Far East port calls including Singapore, and she is now heading for Freemantle (Perth) on 18 Feb - 2 weeks at sea after she left Colombo!
Singapore is a worry - I really think the lid should now be closed...Latest travel advisory for all non-essential travel from more countries.
edit - Latest
BA 034 isolated on runway LHR 06.18 hours today
Currently sitting on BA 034, arrived one hour ago from KUL.
Passenger declared illness to crew.
Awaiting arrival of Port Authority Doctor.
LHR Fire Brigade in Hazmat gear outside the plane
BA canx's one of their 2 daily HKG's
The Cunard liner Queen Mary canx's all Far East port calls including Singapore, and she is now heading for Freemantle (Perth) on 18 Feb - 2 weeks at sea after she left Colombo!
Singapore is a worry - I really think the lid should now be closed...Latest travel advisory for all non-essential travel from more countries.
edit - Latest
BA 034 isolated on runway LHR 06.18 hours today
Currently sitting on BA 034, arrived one hour ago from KUL.
Passenger declared illness to crew.
Awaiting arrival of Port Authority Doctor.
LHR Fire Brigade in Hazmat gear outside the plane
Last edited by rog747; 13th Feb 2020 at 05:50.
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FDR, the incubation period is a probability distribution, with the bulk of patients in the earlier portion of the period, it seems the first seven days or so. 100% will be positive within the 24 day window. This is perhaps why there are super spreaders, infectious, but asymptomatic for close to the full 24 days, but they are rare.
There was a WHO presser about a week ago, and the rates stated were 82% mild, 15% severe, 3% critical. The death rate in severe/critical was about 20%. This accords reasonably with the Diamond Cruise ship figures, as well as Singapore who seem to have quite clean data. The Straits Times has been covering this well.
Link to the WHO presser, 7th Feb, the rates are discussed from 18:25
There was a WHO presser about a week ago, and the rates stated were 82% mild, 15% severe, 3% critical. The death rate in severe/critical was about 20%. This accords reasonably with the Diamond Cruise ship figures, as well as Singapore who seem to have quite clean data. The Straits Times has been covering this well.
Coronavirus: 3 new cases in Singapore - 2 from Grace Assembly of God church, 1 from DBS
SINGAPORE - There are three more confirmed cases of the coronavirus infection here, bringing the total number of those who have been infected to 50.
Two of the new cases announced on Wednesday (Feb 12) are Singaporeans with no travel history to China. Both went to Grace Assembly of God church's sites in Tanglin and Bukit Batok.
The third is a Singaporean, also with no recent travel history to China. He works for DBS Bank at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), which had earlier asked some of its staff to work from home.
So far, 15 patients have recovered, while 35 are still in hospital.
Eight are now in critical condition, said Health Minister Gan Kim Yong at a press conference on Wednesday.
Mr Gan, who co-chairs a multi-ministry task force, said: "While most infected patients will recover, some may become seriously ill and a small number may succumb to the infection ultimately. We have to be prepared for the worst."
Two of the new cases announced on Wednesday (Feb 12) are Singaporeans with no travel history to China. Both went to Grace Assembly of God church's sites in Tanglin and Bukit Batok.
The third is a Singaporean, also with no recent travel history to China. He works for DBS Bank at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), which had earlier asked some of its staff to work from home.
So far, 15 patients have recovered, while 35 are still in hospital.
Eight are now in critical condition, said Health Minister Gan Kim Yong at a press conference on Wednesday.
Mr Gan, who co-chairs a multi-ministry task force, said: "While most infected patients will recover, some may become seriously ill and a small number may succumb to the infection ultimately. We have to be prepared for the worst."
Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 13th Feb 2020 at 06:15.
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Diamond Princess - by NHK
Meantime on the ship, another 44 confirmed cases puts the total to 218.
The daily increase appears to have stabilised around 40 in a semi controlled environment (pax kept to rooms - crew not).
It should be noted, however that people who have been diagnosed are being removed from the vessel on a daily basis.
Latest news is that elderly people are to be evacuated - also those weakened by other illnesses.
Quarantine period scheduled to end next Wednesday - one week ahead.
The daily increase appears to have stabilised around 40 in a semi controlled environment (pax kept to rooms - crew not).
It should be noted, however that people who have been diagnosed are being removed from the vessel on a daily basis.
Latest news is that elderly people are to be evacuated - also those weakened by other illnesses.
Quarantine period scheduled to end next Wednesday - one week ahead.
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Essentially, there was a panic overreaction by the HK medical establishment that meant patients were given huge doses of steroids. The HK "experts" are, of course, not proud of this, so it doesn't get talked about now. But it did slip out at the time and was reported in the South China Morning Post on 9 May 2003.
Professor Yuen Kwok-Yung, one of HK's "experts", said that SARS wasn't generally what killed otherwise healthy people then - it was due to the large doses of steroids, thereby turning their immune system off and causing them to die from whichever bug next passed by and which their body no long had a defence against. Many more people survived this "treatment" but were maimed for life. The HK Government has spent several hundred million HK$ in compensation and ongoing support to those unfortunates.
Contemporaneous screenshot of the article on the SCMP's website here: https://ibb.co/LhFDCwW
Details of the HK Government cock-up compensation fund here: https://www.swd.gov.hk/en/index/site...ub_trustfundf/
Meantime on the ship, another 44 confirmed cases puts the total to 218.
The daily increase appears to have stabilised around 40 in a semi controlled environment (pax kept to rooms - crew not).
It should be noted, however that people who have been diagnosed are being removed from the vessel on a daily basis.
Latest news is that elderly people are to be evacuated - also those weakened by other illnesses.
Quarantine period scheduled to end next Wednesday - one week ahead.
The daily increase appears to have stabilised around 40 in a semi controlled environment (pax kept to rooms - crew not).
It should be noted, however that people who have been diagnosed are being removed from the vessel on a daily basis.
Latest news is that elderly people are to be evacuated - also those weakened by other illnesses.
Quarantine period scheduled to end next Wednesday - one week ahead.
Interesting...Airlines more exposed to Corona.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...peYZE8zC7k6CUU
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...peYZE8zC7k6CUU
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Also, crew members should only have contact amongst their own team.
In this way each new case would not affect the quarantine timing of the whole contingent and tracking is simplified. This might well be the way the service is being organised already but probably not the way the crew messing is organised.
The elderly pax to be evacuated are defined as being over 80 by the way.
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Update for 14 Feb. Total number of cases:
"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from Johns Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.
The rate of increase each day:
"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from Johns Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.
What a difference a few days of bad data makes! Despite the increase in reported numbers, due to a change in diagnosis, the rate of increase is still tracking 12% per day since 2 Feb. I've said this in many previous posts: "Overall the trend for mainland China matches the trend for the ROW pretty closely, with the total numbers in the ROW being about 1% of the mainland China numbers. If there is under reporting in either series it is either (1) too small to notice or (2) both series under-report by the same proportional amount". I also said this: "We could be surprised by a new surge in numbers...". Well now we have had a significant change to reporting indicating that the Chinese data was under-reported. The Chinese data was levelling off but now it has continued its upward movement.
"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from Johns Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.
The rate of increase each day:
"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from Johns Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.
What a difference a few days of bad data makes! Despite the increase in reported numbers, due to a change in diagnosis, the rate of increase is still tracking 12% per day since 2 Feb. I've said this in many previous posts: "Overall the trend for mainland China matches the trend for the ROW pretty closely, with the total numbers in the ROW being about 1% of the mainland China numbers. If there is under reporting in either series it is either (1) too small to notice or (2) both series under-report by the same proportional amount". I also said this: "We could be surprised by a new surge in numbers...". Well now we have had a significant change to reporting indicating that the Chinese data was under-reported. The Chinese data was levelling off but now it has continued its upward movement.
Last edited by FlareArmed2; 14th Feb 2020 at 04:20. Reason: Johns Hopkins, not John Hopkins.
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This article sums up the new numbers and their effect on data analysis pretty well:
Just about everyone who's been following China's official coronavirus numbers has been able to see that they have been incomplete. Government officials know this too. There's no way they've accounted for everybody infected. How could they?
But at least we had what appeared to be a trend. We could observe the pattern to try and estimate the trajectory of outbreak. Now that's gone too.
You can understand why it has been decided that people who have virus symptoms, plus a CT scan showing chest infection, are now being counted in the "definitely infected" column. However, this has thrown the trend mapping into chaos.
Over the past 24 hours in Hubei alone, nearly 15,000 people were moved into the infected column. This would have sent shockwaves around the world, but actually, if you consider Wednesday's cases by the old definition, the rate could well mean another day of decline: a completely different picture.
So now, we're scratching our heads: do we start looking at the pattern all over again from Thursday onwards? This has also left many wondering what the real death rate must have been over recent weeks and the extent to which we should be treating the overall figures seriously anyway...
But at least we had what appeared to be a trend. We could observe the pattern to try and estimate the trajectory of outbreak. Now that's gone too.
You can understand why it has been decided that people who have virus symptoms, plus a CT scan showing chest infection, are now being counted in the "definitely infected" column. However, this has thrown the trend mapping into chaos.
Over the past 24 hours in Hubei alone, nearly 15,000 people were moved into the infected column. This would have sent shockwaves around the world, but actually, if you consider Wednesday's cases by the old definition, the rate could well mean another day of decline: a completely different picture.
So now, we're scratching our heads: do we start looking at the pattern all over again from Thursday onwards? This has also left many wondering what the real death rate must have been over recent weeks and the extent to which we should be treating the overall figures seriously anyway...