Originally Posted by
Winemaker
It may be:
- an improvement of the testing,
- a further outbreak such as from delayed symptoms
- a correction in underreporting of existing cases. That could be the result of the testing turnaround time, or the real figures being washed back into the data.
The death rate spike is of concern, and may be from re-categorisation of COD.
Not good news though for PRC at the very least. The rest of the world still lags in fatalities arising which may well indicate co factors exist.
The concern of the extended incubation period out to 24 days or so is a major complication on the face of it, however, that does not logically tie in with the general progression of illness from the virus. If the 24 days was the case from the get go, then the growth rate would have been explosive, at any level of infectiousness. The recent cases show multiple contacts occur resulting in spread, Each person appears to get about 3 others infected, per day (very roughly, it has been lower and higher). One person doing that for 24 days before any symptoms is going to give a major jump in numbers, even if they are not contagious for a couple of days, the breakout is very large.
Day 1: 1, Day 2: 1, Day 3: 4, Day 4:10, ... Day 24: 1,594,289
So assuming 24 days incubation prior to symptoms of any kind, and an initial period of 48 hours from contact to being infectious, then the progression would be 1.6M infections prior to first symptom appearing. Thereafter, the progression of symptoms would be around 59K (roughly todays number of cases) 18 days after first symptoms noted. The outbreak first symptoms were on or about 8th December. If the infection was 24 days prior, then the cases on 26 Dec would be around the 59K level, 30 days later, around 25 Jan 2020 we would have symptoms from 3.3 Billion people. That didn't happen, so there is a fair possibility that the 24 day incubation case is a shorter incubation from an unknown source. If indeed it was 24 days, then right now, we have all on this planet been infected... and essentially it is unfortunate to be immuno-compromised, and it'll sort itself out in the wash. That is merely based on 3 contacts per day per person, which is well below the level of contacts that the average adult has in any day. Each progression is unique but within a statistical spread, so that can be added to the equation as a Monte Carlo input.
It is possible to have a single delayed progression, all things are possible, but on average, the incubation period is going to be in the 4-12 day period, with the 24 day being an anomaly or a later contraction of the virus than presumed.
OTOH, if the great mass of the planet has already got the virus, then it has a lower adverse outcome than the seasonal flu does.
The recent increase in numbers should be considered in context, the Wuhan jump is in a region under major stress on resources, that affects accuracy and control and outcome mitigation efforts. Japan gets to add the cases of the cruise ships that are great concentrators of bugs on a good day. They also permit control of the development to an extent and provide isolation from the greater population.