BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus

[FlareArmed2]

Update for 8 Feb. Total number of cases:


"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.

The rate of increase each day:


"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.

The rate of increase each day is trending downwards which is good. Overall the trend for mainland China matches the trend for the ROW pretty closely, with the total numbers in the ROW being about 1% of the mainland China numbers. If there is under reporting in either series it is either (1) too small to notice or (2) both series under-report by the same proportional amount.

The reduction in daily increase is significant. For example, had the initial trend of 50% per day increase continued to today, there would be about 485,000 cases in China and about 4,800 cases in the ROW, whereas the actual numbers today are about a tenth of that. So major strides have been made to contain the spread of nCoV so far.

Will we get to zero growth on or about 12 Feb? I've been doing these graphs for a while now and the extrapolation on the daily change graph has consistently crossed the zero line on 12 Feb (graph on 7 Feb, 6 Feb, 3 Feb). Today I read this article which says in part:

Trends in reported cases in Wuhan so far broadly support the mathematical modeling the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is using to predict the epidemic’s transmission dynamics.“Assuming current trends continue, we’re still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak” in Wuhan, said Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology, in an email Sunday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty, so I’m cautious about picking out a single value for the peak, but it’s possible based on current data we might see a peak prevalence over 5%.”

...based their modeling on a range of assumptions about the 2019-nCoV virus. These include an incubation of 5.2 days, a delay from the onset of symptoms to confirmation of infection of 6.1 days, and the risk of infection among the 10 million people who have been identified as more vulnerable in Wuhan.

Based on that, a prevalence of 5% equates to about 500,000 cumulative infections.

When they mention 5% prevalence they are talking about all those infected, not just those that are so sick they report to hospital and get tested (which is what the John Hopkins data uses). What is interesting is that their modelling also shows a "mid to late-Feb peak" which means my guesswork of 12 Feb is at least ballpark. They would know much better than me, of course, so I make no claims that I am more right; quite the opposite, extrapolation is speculative, I say that in the footnotes below the graph.

So for the sake of all our aviation careers, perhaps the "end of the beginning" is in sight...

[ORAC]

How accurate are those figures being reported from Wuhan?

Twitter

[ORAC]

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ld-grandfather

3 new coronavirus cases in Singapore

SINGAPORE - A 71-year-old grandfather and a Bangladeshi worker are among three new coronavirus cases confirmed here on Sunday (Feb 9), said the Ministry of Health (MOH). The third case is a 54-year-old Singaporean man who works at Resorts World Sentosa.

All three have no currently known links to previous cases or recent travel history to China.

The total number of people infected here has grown to 43. Six are now in critical condition and in the intensive care unit, up from four previously, said MOH in its latest update......

[ORAC]

Regardless, total ban on all Chinese passengers remains in force.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/four-pas...j-coronavirus/

Four passengers on Royal Caribbean cruise ship in NJ cleared of coronavirus

Four Royal Caribbean passengers who were hospitalized and tested for coronavirus have been cleared of the illness after results came back negative, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement on Saturday. "After the evaluation at the hospital, the Center for Disease Control permitted the four individuals who arrived Friday via a cruise ship to be discharged," Murphy said.......

Royal Caribbean announced on Saturday evening that the Anthem of the Seas cruise ship, which is still docked in Bayonne, will now set sail on Monday for its next cruise and return to New Jersey next Saturday.......

[ORAC]

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/61...an-cruise-ship

Six new coronavirus cases found on Japan cruise ship

TOKYO:: Six more people on a cruise ship off Japan are found to have the new coronavirus, the government said on Sunday, bringing the number who have tested positive on board to 70.

Test results are still coming in as passengers on the Diamond Princess face a two-week quarantine against the virus, which has killed hundreds of people, most of them in China. Japanese authorities had earlier tested 279 people on board the cruise ship, finding 64 of them were infected with the coronavirus.

The Diamond Princess was quarantined after a former passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong last month was diagnosed with the virus.

There were more than 3,700 passengers and crew on the ship when it arrived off Japan's coast last week. Dozens have been taken to hospital and around 3,600 people, many of them elderly, were still on board on Sunday. It was not clear whether Japanese authorities would conduct tests on all of them.

The ship docked in Yokohama on Sunday to resupply for a quarantine that could last until February 19. Local reports said Japan's health authorities brought urgently needed drugs and other medical supplies to some 500 people. About 100 said they had a fever or felt unwell, according to the reports......

Television footage has shown a Japanese flag hung on a balcony with the message: "Drug shortage is serious."

[davidjohnson6]

Has there been any effect on sales of air tickets in the last week for itineraries which do not involve mainland China / Hong Kong or pax connecting to these destinationd ? If demand has been affected, is it just Japan, Singapore and Thailand or has demand been affected more widely ?

[apaletta]

Originally Posted by jafar

Sounds reasonable. Just wondering when/if others wilk follow? Gulf carriers? US carriers?

I believe Delta and AA have.

[JanetFlight]

Pardon me the sligthly OffTopic (this is a very recent study published by recognized and credited medical Journal JAMA) says that maybe according new studies and experiences, there is a great probability that almost / a great percentage of Wuhan cases were infected at the hospital and not at the common city places...very interesting read.
Some says could be a ton of cases where a lot of people were only normal flu, but with the "Hysteria/Fear - pardon me the expression" went to the hospital with a normal flu thinking they had the Corona (but not), and really got it after arriving there...if this is true could start to make things flow in another way of thinking....weird but indeed very plausible.


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/08/h...den/index.html

[CurtainTwitcher]

Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU

An important article from the Straight Times interviewing Dr Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital. Note, the clinical criteria for diagnosis was very restrictive until the 18th of January (requirement for a positive test) before being relaxed, this will have a significant bearing on the data on confirmed cases.

The number of patients in the interview also matches the JAMA publication Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China which appeared recently.

[ORAC]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/w...rus-china.html

Coronavirus cases on a cruise ship in Japan nearly double, surpassing 130.

An additional 66 cases of the new coronavirus have been confirmed on a cruise ship quarantined in Yokohama, Japan, raising the total number to 136, the ship’s captain told passengers on Monday.......

Passengers have grown increasingly fearful that the quarantine is putting them in jeopardy. The Japanese authorities have tested a few hundred people for the coronavirus who were believed to be at particular risk, but as the number of cases has risen, some passengers have pressed for everyone on board to be screened. For days, Japanese officials have said they do not have the capacity to test all 3,700 people on board. But on Sunday, the health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said his ministry needed to consider whether it could do so, while noting the challenges of carrying out such a large screening.

China records most deaths from the virus in a single day.

Ninety-seven people died from the coronavirus on Sunday, a new daily record since the new coronavirus was first detected in December, as the death toll rose to 908, China’s National Health Commission said on Monday.......

[Twitter]

Yokohama Cruise Ship Trend

On the Diamond Princess, the previous daily trend:
1,2,4,10,20,41,61 - yesterday 70, today 136.

Good luck to all there.

[ORAC]

Reportedly in Brighton, whether the people previously self-isolating or others is not clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51442314

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...ses-confirmed/

Coronavirus: Four more people diagnosed in UK

The number of people infected by the coronavirus in the UK has doubled to eight - after four more patients in England tested positive for the virus.....

Confirming the four new cases on Monday, chief medical officer for England Prof Chris Whitty said they were all "known contacts of a previously confirmed UK case, and the virus was passed on in France". He added that they have been transferred to specialist NHS centres at Guy's and St Thomas' and the Royal Free hospitals in London..........

It comes as the government announced new powers to keep people in quarantine to stop the spread of the virus. In order to do this the Department of Health has described the coronavirus as a "serious and imminent threat" to public health"......

The BBC's political correspondent Iain Watson said the new measures were announced because a passenger on the first UK flight from Wuhan, who is currently being held in quarantine on the Wirral, "is threatening to abscond". "Currently the regulations are not strong enough to stop him leaving before the 14-day period is up so they brought in these new regulations to try and compel him to stay put," he said.

[Twitter]

European Flight

Reports now, that a pax from GVA to LGW on EZS 8481 28.Jan has since proved positive for the disease.
Company contacting all pax seated in his area. Not quite sure how that works with Easy seating arrangements. Perhaps they will contact all of them.
And as a few days have passed, more folk will have been in contact with pax - and crew.
Problem in Europe is that we are operating with no precautions - until something happens.

[ORAC]

Then again, he didn’t have any symptoms when he infected the others in the ski chalet before flying home to the UK either.......

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...ppeal-17720950

Easyjet warns passengers after coronavirus 'super spreader' flies to UK

Budget airliner EasyJet is urging passengers who travelled on a flight from Geneva to London Gatwick to speak to health officials - after a fellow passenger was later found to have coronavirus. The British man, who became infected at a work conference in Singapore appears, to be linked to 11 other confirmed cases in England and Europe, prompting fears he is a 'super spreader' of the potentially deadly virus.

An easyJet spokeswoman said: "EasyJet has been notified by the public health authority that a customer who had recently travelled on one of its flights has since been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Public Health England is contacting all passengers who were seated in the vicinity of the customer on flight EZS8481 from Geneva to London Gatwick on 28 January to provide guidance in line with procedures. As the customer was not experiencing any symptoms, the risk to others on board the flight is very low.

"We remain in contact with the public health authorities and are following their guidance. The health and well-being of our passengers and crew is the airline's highest priority.”.....

[JanetFlight]

Originally Posted by Twitter

Reports now, that a pax from GVA to LGW on EZS 8481 28.Jan has since proved positive for the disease.
Company contacting all pax seated in his area. Not quite sure how that works with Easy seating arrangements. Perhaps they will contact all of them.
And as a few days have passed, more folk will have been in contact with pax - and crew.
Problem in Europe is that we are operating with no precautions - until something happens.

And now what are we going to do... To ban and forbidding all easyJet flts into our airports as we did with some Chinese airlines, to not allow incoming flts from Geneva or even Gatwick...!?
Perhaps we shall close entire Europe too...

[ORAC]

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...our-new-cases/

Patients of a Brighton GP who tested positive for coronavirus are being urgently traced. Her surgery was closed this morning, almost two weeks after she returned from skiing holiday with the man at the centre of the Brighton cases.

A deep clean is currently taking place at County Oak Medical Centre after it was confirmed a member of staff has coronavirus..........

[ORAC]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...n-coronavirus/

Imperial College London - Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)

Summary Report 4

We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections.

For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%).

For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values.

Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%).

It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases.

All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.

[ORAC]

So much for the quarantine.......

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9326591.html

Coronavirus could have incubation period of 24 days — 10 days longer than previously thought

Medical researchers in China have found the incubation period for coronavirus ranges up to 24 days — 10 days longer than experts previously thought. The research was co-authored by Dr Zhong Nanshan, who discovered the SARS coronavirus in 2003 and has been appointed as a leading advisor in managing the current coronavirus crisis.

Current advice from health organisations and ministries say the virus’ incubation period is as long as 14 days, based on the incubation period of previous MERS viruses. Public Health England and the Department of Health and Social Care has urged anyone travelling from specific countries, including China, to quarantine themselves at home for 14 days.

The findings, which have not yet been peer reviewed, were published on Sunday and titled ‘Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China’.

Researchers extracted data from 1,099 coronavirus patients from 522 hospitals in 31 provinces in China. They found only 1.18 per cent of patients “had a direct contact with wildlife”. The majority of the patients had contracted the virus from being in contact with people from Wuhan, where the centre of the outbreak is.

More than 80 percent of patients developed lymphopenia, which is a state where a specific white blood cell that is part of the body’s first-line defence against diseases is reduced. Lymphopenia is commonly caused by infections and the flu, and usually recovers on its own after the patient recovers.

The 55 patients observed in the study were admitted into the intensive care unit, some with severe pneumonia as a result of the virus. Of those patients, 15 died.

The research concluded that the virus “spreads rapidly by human-to-human transmission” and its severity “predict poor clinical outcomes”.........

Twitter

[Rood]

Would be interesting if anyone has access to historical flight data to know what the tailcode for that Easyjet flight was and see where else that aircraft flew in the past two weeks.

Also nobody has mentioned how he got to Geneva. Am guessing an Emirates flight via Dubai but are those crew and passengers being contacted?

[Twitter]

Originally Posted by Rood

Also nobody has mentioned how he got to Geneva. Am guessing an Emirates flight via Dubai but are those crew and passengers being contacted?

Was connected with the French skiing chalet case. Incubation period is leading to lag in recognition and lag in taking precautions, as well as difficulty in follow up. It’s a bugger.