Update for 14 Feb. Total number of cases:
"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from Johns Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.
The rate of increase each day:
"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from Johns Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.
What a difference a few days of bad data makes! Despite the increase in reported numbers, due to a change in diagnosis, the rate of increase is still tracking 12% per day since 2 Feb. I've said this in many previous posts:
"Overall the trend for mainland China matches the trend for the ROW pretty closely, with the total numbers in the ROW being about 1% of the mainland China numbers. If there is under reporting in either series it is either (1) too small to notice or (2) both series under-report by the same proportional amount". I also said this:
"We could be surprised by a new surge in numbers...". Well now we have had a significant change to reporting indicating that the Chinese data was under-reported. The Chinese data was levelling off but now it has continued its upward movement.