BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus
Current headline on SCMP, quoting Wuhan Central Hospital on their Weibo account:
"Coronavirus: Li Wenliang, doctor who alerted public to the outbreak, dies of the disease
Wuhan Central Hospital confirms Li’s death, as commenters on Chinese social media mourn his loss and express anger at his treatment
Li, 34, was one of eight doctors who tried to share information about the coronavirus only to be reprimanded by Wuhan police"
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...ities-outbreak
"Coronavirus: Li Wenliang, doctor who alerted public to the outbreak, dies of the disease
Wuhan Central Hospital confirms Li’s death, as commenters on Chinese social media mourn his loss and express anger at his treatment
Li, 34, was one of eight doctors who tried to share information about the coronavirus only to be reprimanded by Wuhan police"
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...ities-outbreak
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They may well do that, but I doubt it will because of moral backbone. The Chinese public is furious about the treatment by the authorities of the eight docs who tried to warn about the coronavirus and even state-sponsored media have been openly critical in the past few days. The Chinese government is authoritarian, but that doesn't mean it can ignore public opinion and it knows that perfectly well.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Must be pretty grim being kept on a ship with an epedemic around. For those of a statistical bent it might provide some hard data I suppose - 10 became 20 today...
Cruise Ship Virus Outbreak Is Biggest Outside China With 61 Sick
Japan confirmed 41 more cases of the new coronavirus aboard a quarantined cruise ship, and denied entry to another vessel as it sought to control the spread of the deadly infection, with thousands now stranded on stricken luxury liners.
The results bring to 61 the tally of infections among 273 passengers and crew so far tested aboard the Diamond Princess, which is being kept in isolation at the port of Yokohama and is the biggest center of infection of any place outside of China.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense said Thursday it would send Self-Defense Forces medical personnel to help out with treatment on the ship, and bring alongside a commercial passenger vessel to act as a temporary base. Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said he was considering testing other elderly and vulnerable people among the roughly 3,700 people aboard.
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said one of those infected on the ship was now confirmed to be in serious condition, while Twitter users who said they were aboard the vessel expressed increasing concern.......
Japan has banned a separate cruise ship -- the Westerdam -- from berthing at a port in the country, saying a person on the vessel was suspected to have contracted the virus.
Cruise operator Holland America, part of Carnival Corp., said earlier there were no known cases of the novel coronavirus aboard the Westerdam and the ship was not in quarantine. The vessel is currently off Ishigaki -- one of Japan’s most southerly islands -- and Holland America said it was trying to make alternative plans for its passengers.........
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1,2,4,10,20,61 was the progression
Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said he was considering testing other elderly and vulnerable people
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Who cares
Not WHO but who?
9 out of 10 folk questioned in Germany for instance are unconcerned. So were most people in the Far East when it broke out.
Then preparations don’t get made until it’s too late.
Should be possible to stay cool - but think.
9 out of 10 folk questioned in Germany for instance are unconcerned. So were most people in the Far East when it broke out.
Then preparations don’t get made until it’s too late.
Should be possible to stay cool - but think.
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Some news on today's evacuation flights.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/ameri...anada-symptoms
Published 1 hour ago
Last Update 6 mins ago
By Madeline Farber | Fox News
Two State Department-chartered flights carrying additional American evacuees from Wuhan, China -- the epicenter of the deadly coronavirus outbreak -- were held in Vancouver, Canada and Travis Air Force Base in California due to "two persons of interest," one on each plane. The passengers showed symptoms of coronavirus, which include fever, shortness of breath, and a cough, two U.S. officials close to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told Fox News.
Medical teams in Nebraska and Texas are prepared to receive the passengers, who were set to be held in quarantine for 14 days while they were monitored for possible symptoms.
The latest estimates suggested the plane held in Vancouver was expected to arrive at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, Calif., shortly before 12 p.m. ET, while the other plane was estimated to arrive at its first stop at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio around 1:30 p.m. ET. The plane would then leave Lackland for Nebraska to drop off the remaining passengers at Eppley Airfield in Omaha.
On Thursday, an official with the federal department told Fox News that the two flights were likely to be the last State Department-chartered flights out of the city.
“At this time, we do not anticipate staging additional flights beyond those planned to depart February 6,” the spokesperson said, adding any U.S. citizens still in China “should attempt to depart by commercial means.”
Last Update 6 mins ago
2 planes carrying American coronavirus evacuees held in California, Canada over ‘persons of interest’: sources
By Madeline Farber | Fox News
Two State Department-chartered flights carrying additional American evacuees from Wuhan, China -- the epicenter of the deadly coronavirus outbreak -- were held in Vancouver, Canada and Travis Air Force Base in California due to "two persons of interest," one on each plane. The passengers showed symptoms of coronavirus, which include fever, shortness of breath, and a cough, two U.S. officials close to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told Fox News.
Medical teams in Nebraska and Texas are prepared to receive the passengers, who were set to be held in quarantine for 14 days while they were monitored for possible symptoms.
The latest estimates suggested the plane held in Vancouver was expected to arrive at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, Calif., shortly before 12 p.m. ET, while the other plane was estimated to arrive at its first stop at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio around 1:30 p.m. ET. The plane would then leave Lackland for Nebraska to drop off the remaining passengers at Eppley Airfield in Omaha.
On Thursday, an official with the federal department told Fox News that the two flights were likely to be the last State Department-chartered flights out of the city.
“At this time, we do not anticipate staging additional flights beyond those planned to depart February 6,” the spokesperson said, adding any U.S. citizens still in China “should attempt to depart by commercial means.”
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Sky News reporting last British evacuee flight from Wuhan will be arriving in UK on Sunday and evacuees will be accommodated in isolation in Milton Keynes.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nese-nationals
Royal Caribbean bans all Chinese nationals from its cruise ships
The US cruise ship company Royal Caribbean has announced that would-be passengers and crew with Chinese passports will be banned from all of its cruise ships – regardless of when they were last in the country at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak.
The measure – which also covers people with Hong Kong and Macau passports – comes amid growing concerns over the fast-spreading virus, which has killed more than 600 people and affected individuals in at least 25 countries. But it was likely to face criticism from Beijing, which has bridled at sweeping travel bans on its citizens, and from human rights activists who have denounced such restrictions as discriminatory........
Royal Caribbean bans all Chinese nationals from its cruise ships
The US cruise ship company Royal Caribbean has announced that would-be passengers and crew with Chinese passports will be banned from all of its cruise ships – regardless of when they were last in the country at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak.
The measure – which also covers people with Hong Kong and Macau passports – comes amid growing concerns over the fast-spreading virus, which has killed more than 600 people and affected individuals in at least 25 countries. But it was likely to face criticism from Beijing, which has bridled at sweeping travel bans on its citizens, and from human rights activists who have denounced such restrictions as discriminatory........
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nese-nationals
Royal Caribbean bans all Chinese nationals from its cruise ships
The US cruise ship company Royal Caribbean has announced that would-be passengers and crew with Chinese passports will be banned from all of its cruise ships – regardless of when they were last in the country at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak.
The measure – which also covers people with Hong Kong and Macau passports – comes amid growing concerns over the fast-spreading virus, which has killed more than 600 people and affected individuals in at least 25 countries. But it was likely to face criticism from Beijing, which has bridled at sweeping travel bans on its citizens, and from human rights activists who have denounced such restrictions as discriminatory........
Royal Caribbean bans all Chinese nationals from its cruise ships
The US cruise ship company Royal Caribbean has announced that would-be passengers and crew with Chinese passports will be banned from all of its cruise ships – regardless of when they were last in the country at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak.
The measure – which also covers people with Hong Kong and Macau passports – comes amid growing concerns over the fast-spreading virus, which has killed more than 600 people and affected individuals in at least 25 countries. But it was likely to face criticism from Beijing, which has bridled at sweeping travel bans on its citizens, and from human rights activists who have denounced such restrictions as discriminatory........
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Update for 7 Feb. Total number of cases:
"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.
The rate of increase each day:
"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.
The rate of increase each day is trending downwards which is good. In the last few days the rest of the world (ROW) trend has gone upwards due to newly discovered cases eg on cruise ships. As the ROW has much lower overall numbers the data for ROW tends to bounce around a bit, so this might be factor rather than any long-term change. The linear trend is still strongly downwards.
Overall the trend for mainland China matches the trend for the ROW pretty closely, with the total numbers in the ROW being about 1% of the mainland China numbers. If there is under reporting in either series it is either (1) too small to notice or (2) both series under-report by the same proportional amount.
The reduction in daily increase is significant. For example, had the initial trend of 50% per day increase continued to today, there would be about 320,000 cases in China and about 3,200 cases in the ROW, whereas the actual numbers today are about a tenth of that. So major strides have been made to contain the spread of nCoV so far.
"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.
The rate of increase each day:
"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.
The rate of increase each day is trending downwards which is good. In the last few days the rest of the world (ROW) trend has gone upwards due to newly discovered cases eg on cruise ships. As the ROW has much lower overall numbers the data for ROW tends to bounce around a bit, so this might be factor rather than any long-term change. The linear trend is still strongly downwards.
Overall the trend for mainland China matches the trend for the ROW pretty closely, with the total numbers in the ROW being about 1% of the mainland China numbers. If there is under reporting in either series it is either (1) too small to notice or (2) both series under-report by the same proportional amount.
The reduction in daily increase is significant. For example, had the initial trend of 50% per day increase continued to today, there would be about 320,000 cases in China and about 3,200 cases in the ROW, whereas the actual numbers today are about a tenth of that. So major strides have been made to contain the spread of nCoV so far.
data
So far, the provided data doesn't fit an exponential growth, and that is curious. Either there are constraints to the growth that do a remarkable job of matching a quadratic or cubic function, (at least over part of the growth in numbers) or the data ain't the full monty. Being of generous mind, I choose to assume that there are other constraints involved, such as interventions etc, that are altering the course of the cases. That isn't necessarily being naiive, there is a fair chance that the breakout from Hubei gave anomalous growth rates in cases, and intervention by various countries to control the spread. If the numbers have however been back driven, then that will become identifiable in due course assuming that the data of the rest of the world can maintain integrity.
Fatalities in this outbreak have taken some time to occur, actually much longer than was assumed first up. WHO/CDC are not reporting that time at present, but the cases that have been looked at show a progression that takes between 7 days and 14 days from contagion to death. That increases the mis-match in the CFR methodology, however, the reported fatalities are not following a consistent progression compared to reported cases for the early to mid January data (slip fatalities at the end of January forward by 10 days, and they are almost equivalent to the number of cases reported at the earlier time, when the fatal cases were exposed to the virus, yet 10 days later in the data, this is not the case).
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Deadliest day for coronavirus as mainland China records 86 fatalities
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...-hospital.html
New coronavirus infected 40 staff in single Wuhan hospital: study
Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.
One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.
Seventeen patients who were hospitalized for other reasons also became infected by the coronavirus. A total of 138 patients got the virus in a period spanning January 1 to January 28, with hospital-associated transmission accounting for 41 percent of all cases.........
Of the 40 infected health care workers in the JAMA study, 31 worked on general wards, seven in the emergency department, and two in the ICU.
The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.
"If true, then this confirms that some patients are likely to be far more infectious than others, and this poses further difficulties in managing their cases," said Michael Head, a global health expert at the University of Southampton said in a comment to the UK's Science Media Centre.......
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...-hospital.html
New coronavirus infected 40 staff in single Wuhan hospital: study
Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.
One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.
Seventeen patients who were hospitalized for other reasons also became infected by the coronavirus. A total of 138 patients got the virus in a period spanning January 1 to January 28, with hospital-associated transmission accounting for 41 percent of all cases.........
Of the 40 infected health care workers in the JAMA study, 31 worked on general wards, seven in the emergency department, and two in the ICU.
The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.
"If true, then this confirms that some patients are likely to be far more infectious than others, and this poses further difficulties in managing their cases," said Michael Head, a global health expert at the University of Southampton said in a comment to the UK's Science Media Centre.......
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[. . .]
Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.
One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.
Seventeen patients who were hospitalized for other reasons also became infected by the coronavirus. A total of 138 patients got the virus in a period spanning January 1 to January 28, with hospital-associated transmission accounting for 41 percent of all cases.........
[. . .]
The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.
Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.
One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.
Seventeen patients who were hospitalized for other reasons also became infected by the coronavirus. A total of 138 patients got the virus in a period spanning January 1 to January 28, with hospital-associated transmission accounting for 41 percent of all cases.........
[. . .]
The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.
It would be more surprising if there had not been a burst of hospital-acquired cases.
"If true, then this confirms that some patients are likely to be far more infectious than others, and this poses further difficulties in managing their cases," said Michael Head, a global health expert at the University of Southampton said in a comment to the UK's Science Media Centre.......
Last edited by OldnGrounded; 9th Feb 2020 at 03:04. Reason: Typos noticed when wearing the right eyeglasses. ;^(
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Fatalities in this outbreak have taken some time to occur, actually much longer than was assumed first up. WHO/CDC are not reporting that time at present, but the cases that have been looked at show a progression that takes between 7 days and 14 days from contagion to death. That increases the mis-match in the CFR methodology, however, the reported fatalities are not following a consistent progression compared to reported cases for the early to mid January data (slip fatalities at the end of January forward by 10 days, and they are almost equivalent to the number of cases reported at the earlier time, when the fatal cases were exposed to the virus, yet 10 days later in the data, this is not the case).
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've also read some reports that most victims are male - I wonder if that relates to the smoking rates in China? (I've seen various numbers, but apparently somewhere around 50 percent of the men but few women smoke.) Areas of China also have a lot of pollution - if the virus affects the lungs, then surely pollution and smoking aren't going to help.
The Worldometers site -- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ -- is doing a good job of keeping a summary of reliable information from the various authorities around the world up to date and easily accessible.
Your information on rates of cigarette smoking and China appears to be accurate: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6546632/
Last edited by OldnGrounded; 9th Feb 2020 at 03:05. Reason: Typos noticed when wearing the right eyeglasses. ;^(
Fatalities
On Saturday the first fatalities of foreigners were reported, one a US citizen, and the other Japanese. Both fatalities occurred in China.
It is not clear in the data which set of cases these occurred from, but presumably they were from the Chinese data set. These fatalities were 60 Y/O and mid 60's. The Japanese citizen was admitted into hospital in Wuhan around 16 January with suspected viral pneumonia.
The time from contact to fatality is quite long in a number of cases, considering the Japanese national and Dr Li, total time is anywhere between 40 days to 23 days with a lot of variability. The first fatalities that were attributed to NCoV were also around 40 days after the first assumed contagion in the wet market. If that is correct, then the foreign fatalities, offshore of PRC will take further time to occur, and these first two foreign national fatalities are part of the Chinese morbidity cohort, and do not indicate as yet a commencement of fatalities resulting from the spread of the virus external to China. The external fatalities may commence at a later date, anywhere from another 10 days or more from now showing a similar development to Chinese events. That is the long end of the timeline, there is more likelihood that the spread external to Chia occurred earlier than currently reported, through the many asymptomatic travellers who then were embedded in day to day activity without awareness of their status. Medical resources in China are under stress treating their caseload, and that could well impact adversely the outcome within the Chinese medical system. If the spread is minimised externally, that stress may be avoided globally. 2020 is off to a lousy start.
However... since the beginning of Feb, total cases are showing a much lower rate of growth, currently running nearly a constant increase per day, which indicates that some controls are effective, or reporting is incorrect. fatalities are still trending up in rate but as stated previously, there is a lag in the fatalities and unless medical intervention becomes more effective, short term increase in rate of fatalities per day would continue until reaching the lag time for the current rate of case reporting.
It is not clear in the data which set of cases these occurred from, but presumably they were from the Chinese data set. These fatalities were 60 Y/O and mid 60's. The Japanese citizen was admitted into hospital in Wuhan around 16 January with suspected viral pneumonia.
The time from contact to fatality is quite long in a number of cases, considering the Japanese national and Dr Li, total time is anywhere between 40 days to 23 days with a lot of variability. The first fatalities that were attributed to NCoV were also around 40 days after the first assumed contagion in the wet market. If that is correct, then the foreign fatalities, offshore of PRC will take further time to occur, and these first two foreign national fatalities are part of the Chinese morbidity cohort, and do not indicate as yet a commencement of fatalities resulting from the spread of the virus external to China. The external fatalities may commence at a later date, anywhere from another 10 days or more from now showing a similar development to Chinese events. That is the long end of the timeline, there is more likelihood that the spread external to Chia occurred earlier than currently reported, through the many asymptomatic travellers who then were embedded in day to day activity without awareness of their status. Medical resources in China are under stress treating their caseload, and that could well impact adversely the outcome within the Chinese medical system. If the spread is minimised externally, that stress may be avoided globally. 2020 is off to a lousy start.
However... since the beginning of Feb, total cases are showing a much lower rate of growth, currently running nearly a constant increase per day, which indicates that some controls are effective, or reporting is incorrect. fatalities are still trending up in rate but as stated previously, there is a lag in the fatalities and unless medical intervention becomes more effective, short term increase in rate of fatalities per day would continue until reaching the lag time for the current rate of case reporting.