FDR, the incubation period is a probability distribution, with the bulk of patients in the earlier portion of the period, it seems the first seven days or so. 100% will be positive within the 24 day window. This is perhaps why there are super spreaders, infectious, but asymptomatic for close to the full 24 days, but they are rare.
There was a WHO presser about a week ago, and the rates stated were 82% mild, 15% severe, 3% critical. The death rate in severe/critical was about 20%. This accords reasonably with the Diamond Cruise ship figures, as well as Singapore who seem to have quite clean data. The Straits Times has been covering this well.
SINGAPORE - There are three more confirmed cases of the coronavirus infection here, bringing the total number of those who have been infected to 50.
Two of the new cases announced on Wednesday (Feb 12) are Singaporeans with no travel history to China. Both went to Grace Assembly of God church's sites in Tanglin and Bukit Batok.
The third is a Singaporean, also with no recent travel history to China. He works for DBS Bank at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), which had earlier asked some of its staff to work from home.
So far, 15 patients have recovered, while 35 are still in hospital.
Eight are now in critical condition, said Health Minister Gan Kim Yong at a press conference on Wednesday.
Mr Gan, who co-chairs a multi-ministry task force, said: "While most infected patients will recover, some may become seriously ill and a small number may succumb to the infection ultimately. We have to be prepared for the worst."
Link to the WHO presser, 7th Feb, the rates are discussed from 18:25