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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

Old 31st Mar 2019, 02:07
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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I was chief pilot of a small skydive operation for several years. It was surprisingly difficult to find suitable pilots. You know pilots who I felt comfortable enough that they were competent enough not to kill our customers.

The good ones were obvious and soon moved on to better things. Others not so much. One lad seemed to fit the bill but after quite a few hours sitting right seat with him I just couldn't let him solo. CPL he might have but no. Saw him lately still floating around.
Not everyone has what it takes. So yes plenty of pilots are out there but not everyone has what it takes.
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Old 1st Apr 2019, 02:34
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
Indeed I went from a Computer Science degree to a well paid IT Consultancy position, that funded a CPL/IR after resignation, then 737-300, and then back to IT/Government consultancy. I recall many Captains after I stated my previous pre-airline salary look at me as if I were crazy to give it up, and more than one told me I was foolish.

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.
Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.
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Old 1st Apr 2019, 02:40
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DeepUnderground View Post
There may be a shortage of (people willing to go 100k into debt for entry level jobs)
I hear this line all the time. But honestly, if you're spending $100,000 to get a CPL-ME-IA with 25 hours of twinky time, you're a moron.
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Old 1st Apr 2019, 07:03
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mryan75 View Post
I hear this line all the time. But honestly, if you're spending $100,000 to get a CPL-ME-IA with 25 hours of twinky time, you're a moron.
Maybe. However, with that experience the entry level jet is then an A320 or 737 and a command in five years. Of course one could get his CPL and a degree at something like Embry Riddle or UND (costs are similar) and then spend another 100k to get the required 1500 hours for his ATPL. Different systems and very different job markets.
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Old 1st Apr 2019, 22:00
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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I fly with BA, KLM, S7, Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Gulf, Saudi, Oman and more and have never been held up by any sort of announcement to the effect that I've been delayed due to staff shortages/ pilots. Trains in the UK, its a different story.
So from my POV, no shortage.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 09:39
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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Pilot shortage???
That is what Airbus and Boeing say.
Think about it? If you produce toy airplanes. And you like to sell them worldwide? You know in order to sell them you
have to keep the price down. So you want to make sure if your toy airplane needs batteries that the batteries are cheap.
otherwise you will not sell your toyplane.
So you create a world with to many pilots on the market. Cheap batteries. That works both for Boeing and Airbus plus it works for the airlines.
In the end it is the passengers paying for the Boeing or Airbus in their ticket price.. And they like it cheap.
A lot of flying is needed for business but a lot is also luxury article. Holidays, citytrips etc. So if people cannot or are not
willing to pay the ticket price which they don't have to. That is a big portion of the Airline passengers. They don't have to fly.
You have to attract them on board with cheap tickets. Means cheap labor.

As well getting more women in the flightdeck. They can pilot just as good as man. But is only 97% or so of pilot
community. The reason to use the media and recruit more women in the Flightdeck is the same. As above.
Ask and demand. The more pilots no matter what gender the lower/cheaper their wages. If you can attract even 3% more
female pilots you don't have to increase the wages.

Airbus started their flightschool recently. Boeing was behind MPL with their Alteon training company. All in order to sell their toys.
As long as pilots have to pay for their training, there is to many.
It should be funded by the healthy Airline.

Falck

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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 10:49
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Falck View Post
Pilot shortage???
That is what Airbus and Boeing say.
Think about it? If you produce toy airplanes. And you like to sell them worldwide? You know in order to sell them you
have to keep the price down. So you want to make sure if your toy airplane needs batteries that the batteries are cheap.
otherwise you will not sell your toyplane.
So you create a world with to many pilots on the market. Cheap batteries. That works both for Boeing and Airbus plus it works for the airlines.
In the end it is the passengers paying for the Boeing or Airbus in their ticket price.. And they like it cheap.
A lot of flying is needed for business but a lot is also luxury article. Holidays, citytrips etc. So if people cannot or are not
willing to pay the ticket price which they don't have to. That is a big portion of the Airline passengers. They don't have to fly.
You have to attract them on board with cheap tickets. Means cheap labor.

As well getting more women in the flightdeck. They can pilot just as good as man. But is only 97% or so of pilot
community. The reason to use the media and recruit more women in the Flightdeck is the same. As above.
Ask and demand. The more pilots no matter what gender the lower/cheaper their wages. If you can attract even 3% more
female pilots you don't have to increase the wages.

Airbus started their flightschool recently. Boeing was behind MPL with their Alteon training company. All in order to sell their toys.
As long as pilots have to pay for their training, there is to many.
It should be funded by the healthy Airline.

Falck

Truer words were rarely spoken. Well done for explaining large scale advanced economic machinery in terms everyone can grasp.

Aviation in Lady Europa is about to change drastically in my view. DY is struggling, ezy has stopped DEC recruitment and looks on their careers site as if f/o recruitment is down quite a lot as well. Ryr will need pilots for some time yet, and I guess they shall get them as the only large operator recruiting for all positions. Flag carriers are taking pilots, but not enough to keep disturbing the job market. Wow/germania/monarch/air Berlin gone with Thomas Cook apparently being put in the shop window and alitalia flying way too close to the sun for way too long.

I say gone will be the days of cadet to captain to trainer in the span of 6-7 years, probably never to be seen again as aviation in the eurozone has matured (loco at full possible expansion, legacy adjusted to correct market size)

Get in to a stable operator in the seat you want to be NOW. A recession is on the horizon, things may well look very different on the other side of it.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 11:46
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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There is a lot of people saying ďoh Delta skippers get $400k/yrĒ etc. Youíve got to remember that aviation in the US is very much a climb the ladder game. A lot of these guys started out in their teens or early 20s flying bug smashers and earning peanuts. There is an American guy on YouTube with 40 years experience and still doesnít have enough seniority to fly LHS on the 777 at one of the majors. Itís the same in other parts of the world I.e. Aus/Nz.

In euroland itís not so seniority driven and you can progress relatively quickly, even if you are hindered by recession or redundancy. People join airlines in Europe in their 40s and can retire as wide body captains. In Europe you start on a reasonable salary and you progress relatively quickly to captain with a good salary. The spread of earnings in Europe are not the same as the rest of the world, you generally donít earn peanuts like a crop sprayer or the fortunes of a Dellta captain.

My my point is, if you were willing to sit down in front of excel and work out the career average salary of a US pilot versus a European pilot; youíd probably find they are very similar.

Anyway, if you are becoming a pilot for the money; you are crazy!
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 07:57
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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I fully agree that some sort of recession is looming on the horizon, and we will see a change in the pilot job market, with fewer opportunities. However, there is a big difference, when we compare the last two recessions with the current or looming recession. We have to remember that in 2001 most airlines were heavily over staffed and that most authorities changed their regulations to allow pilots to fly until their 65th birthday. This left the industry with a huge surplus of trained pilots, which was not depleted when the 2008 recession hit, one of the worst recession in newer history. This lead to decrease in terms and conditions. The surplus of pilots is now very low, and number of flight students are considerably lower compared to the late nineties and the terms and conditions are slowly changing to the better. For those reasons I predict that the coming/current recession will be short and that we will see even better terms and conditions on the other side of it.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 20:49
  #90 (permalink)  
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To add some perspective to the extent of the 2008 recession we were around and covering the entire period. Here's the 2008 stats for airlines going broke.

01/01/2008 Alpi Eagles

06/01/2008 Aero Airlines

08/01/2008 BRTJ BritishJet.com

23/01/2008 CST Coast Air

14/01/2008 FFP Prima Charter

30/01/2008 City Star Airlines

11/02/2008 VID Aviaprad Airlines

29/02/2008 Boston-Maine Airways

08/03/2008 BigSky

13/03/2008 GirJet

18/03/2008 DHI Adam Air

25/03/2008 QSC African Safari Airways

30/03/2008 Freedom Air

30/03/2008 Airclass Airways

31/03/2008 JAA Japan Asia Airways

29/04/2008 NTW Nationwide Airlines

28/04/2008 AAH Aloha Airlines

02/04/2008 AMT ATA Airlines

09/04/2008 OHK Oasis Hong Kong Airlines

27/04/2008 ESS Eos Airlines

20/04/2008 VCX Ocean Airlines

07/04/2008 SKB Skybus Airlines

05/04/2008 SYW Skyway Airlines

11/04/2008 SWX Swazi Express Airways

03/05/2008 Mihin Lanka

13/05/2008 AOL Angkor Airways

09/05/2008 EMX Euromanx

13/05/2008 FEA Far Eastern Air Transport

23/05/2008 Club Air

30/05/2008 SLR Silverjet

31/05/2008 CCP Champion Air

10/06/2008 Magnicharters

11/06/2008 Aerocondor

16/07/2008 Yeti Airlines

21/07/2008 Ankair

21/07/2008 One-Two-Go

29/07/2008 Riau Airlines

13/08/2008 GCO Gemini Air Cargo

04/08/2008 SER Aerocalifornia

05/08/2008 Avolar

05/08/2008 Nova Air

28/08/2008 OOM Zoom Airlines

28/08/2008 UKZ Zoom Airlines (UK)

09/09/2008 FUA Futura International Airways

09/09/2008 FGL Futura Gael

11/09/2008 Air Bee

12/09/2008 XLA XL Airways UK

15/09/2008 APKX Air Pack Express

15/09/2008 AeBal

17/09/2008 Dalavia Russia

06/10/2008 Galaxy Airlines (Japan)

09/10/2008 Lagunair Spain

16/10/2008 Flysur Spain

17/10/2008 LTE Spain

17/10/2008 Omskavia

17/10/2008 Interavia

17/10/2008 Tesis

17/10/2008 Vyborg Airlines

18/10/2008 Hansung Airlines

20/10/2008 Flysur

21/10/2008 Aladia (Mexico)

29/10/2008 Sterling AirwaysAirlines

31/10/2008 Air Comet (Chile)

31/10/2008 Kras Air

01/11/2008 Domodedovo Airlines

08/11/2008 Alma (Mexico)

11/11/2008 Inter Airlines (Turkey)

01/12/2008 European Aviation Aircharter

01/12/2008 Primaris Airlines

01/12/2008 Siem Reap Airways International

03/12/2008 Flightline

06/12/2008 OK Air

Rob
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 05:49
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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Quote -Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.

That would be me. Widebody Twin Captain, mid-thirties. Resigned over a decade ago to be own boss. No regrets

Last edited by WannabeBus; 5th Apr 2019 at 02:11.
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 07:37
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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If we donít have a substantial financial correction in the next 12-24 months, one thatís massively changing the landscape, I think recruitment will continue as air travel is set to increase substantially over coming 10-15 years.

The fact that easyJet (as it was mentioned) is showing signs of not recruiting much at the moment means nothing. For most companies recruitment is semi-seasonal and come August / September theyíll start calling people in for interviews and OCCs as training ramps up again in preparation for 2020. This pattern is true for most airlines in Europe and itís nothing new.

Will there be more companies going under? Most certainly, but the number of commercial aircraft and passengers travelling will continue to rise.

Donít forget that even at a moderate fleet increase of say 4-5 % per annum companies like easyJet and Ryanair are adding 15-20 aircraft. Then there are all the smaller t-p operators, regionals, bizjet and cargo operators, legacy airlines etc etc. Add retirements and people who decide to leave the business altogether and itís pretty clear that there will be plenty of recruitment going on also in the coming years. Just my two cents.

(Added)
.....but a real pilot shortage? Not a chance Iím afraid.

CP

Last edited by CaptainProp; 4th Apr 2019 at 07:49.
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 12:21
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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Shortage delayed!

CptProp
Right You are.
No real Pilot shortage!
Just shortage of Real Pilots!
Trust me, there are!
Regards
Cpt B
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Old 5th Apr 2019, 02:01
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mryan75 View Post

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.
To those of us who have done the hard yards over many years mryan, your statement makes perfect sense. I know it does to me.

The above case, although extreme IMHO, probably highlights the overarching reason for the problem. A loss of wonder, fascination​​​​​, love whatever, in the profession by a much greater percentage of the population. Especially over the last 20 years.

Realistically thereís probably not much we will be able to do about that. So if it all comes down to money, there is only one viable long term solution.

Of course that would require a paradigm shift in the value placed on those who sit up the front.
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Old 5th Apr 2019, 15:22
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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Myth.

Anybody with reasonable T&C's grounding flights due to insufficient flight deck crew? Nope....

A few entirely self-inflicted shortages don't make the case for actual shortages. We're not even at the stage of first world countries fully opening up their job market to foreigners, which would definitely happen if there was a real shortage.

Edit to add: That previously linked article is a decently thought out piece of work, making some good points. I don't recommend this career to young people nowdays since it's frankly quite horrible for family life. The idea that one partner must stay home and run the household while the pilot works at all sorts of random hours and spends half the time away from home doesn't really appeal to anybody with a brain nowdays.

Last edited by Shrike200; 5th Apr 2019 at 15:36.
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Old 5th Apr 2019, 17:06
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mryan75 View Post

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.
anyone who gives up a well paying (higher paying) job in his 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at an LCD/MCDU screen counting down the miles to go ought to have HIS head examined.

To answer the original question, if I look at my T&Cs, itís definitely a myth.
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Old 6th Apr 2019, 11:11
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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I absolutely agree with shrike and compass. Hated flying low cost 800 hrs/year, with poor t&cs. Never again. 500 hrs/year is max now. My nightmare would be if any of my kids (soon teens) told me that they have decided to become pilots. What a no brainer decision.

Last edited by Easyheat; 6th Apr 2019 at 15:38.
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Old 6th Apr 2019, 17:57
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Rather let them spend a few years hacking around the game reserves, great life for a young single CPL with plenty of variety. Flying jets up and down the same route is boring.
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Old 7th Apr 2019, 10:26
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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Snoop Myth

There are plenty of pilots right out of school and in GA. Back in the day all you needed was CPL 200 Hours and you would be snatched up and trained for ME/IR + type rating.
Now you need CPL/ATPL 1500 plus hours, a type rating, time on type, a university degree, pay to fly, pass psychometric etc etc the list goes on!!!!

The shortage is created by flight schools and airlines to keep up business and pay low (insurance companies too).
Laws of demand and supply: If pilot supply increases and demand remains unchanged, then it leads to lower pay.

Some of us have been struggling to survive as pilots. We made a high investment on our training with low/nil returns! While your accountant friend made a low investment and is enjoying high returns.

There is no shortage!






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Old 7th Apr 2019, 11:13
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by physicx View Post
The shortage is created by flight schools and airlines to keep up business and pay low (insurance companies too).
Laws of demand and supply: If pilot supply increases and demand remains unchanged, then it leads to lower pay
​​​​​​IF(!) the pilots allow the pay to go down!

Sticking together, across airlines and across countries, refusing to allow bad times in the business affect our T&Cs, is possible.

Do airlines pay less for the fuel because times are bad? Do they pay less for the aircraft? For the catering? For capex? NO! They pay the market rate!

The market rate of a pilot shouldn't be dictated in a board room, but in the intra European pilot union conferences! If the pilots bodies stick together, they dictate the market rate of their labour. Management will always attempt divide and conquer in order to drive down conditions, and way too many professional (!) pilots are far too eager to help them out. And then they b*tch and moan.
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