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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

Old 31st Jan 2019, 04:52
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by IBE8720 View Post
Myth. Longer term strategy to drive down terms and conditions.

The airlines need to get more pilots fighting for a job. And it is working, flying schools in Europe have solid bookings for ATPL courses. As supply goes up, conditions go down, fact of life hombre.

I have only ever read article’s from manufacturers and employers saying there is a shortage, NEVER A PILOT/JOBSEEKER.



In demographics is destiny.
The reason why four or five generations of pilots have not seen a shortage is because this one has not been experienced before.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/


"The ‘pilot shortage’ debate is an oversimplified way to brand the ‘coverup’ of many structural problems in the industry."
With staggering entry costs, a narrow skill band, restrictive state rules and limited employers, the employers had the upper hand with unlimited supply a cornerstone element of their model.
.Acceptance and rejection rates for new hires, and incumbent pilots was all factored on the ASSUMPTION that there existed sufficient additional supply.

Normally the business cycle sees the hiring patterns and processes re-supplied the entry level with fresh applicants. As the retirement rate continued rising, the industry model, mostly adversarial, was simply not equipped to recognise and ultimately address with changed input prices resulting from localised shortage: They continue to try to drive down terms and conditions, for that is what they always did.

Baby Boomer pilots who are the largest number — almost 50% of the pilots flying today — are about to retire. And over the next 20 years, [commercial] passengers are going to double.
From the Forbes article below, the problem the industry faces is that the recruitment, training and promotion paths, indeed the very infrastructure in which this upgrade throughput occurs cannot cope with such a roll-off of experience from the top of the experience pile. It has not been seen before, thus the industry is ill equipped to deal with it. Leaving aside the Boeing projection' of growth, which, after all is marketing, the retirement rate alone is staggering and a function of date of birth. That it represents 50% of all airline pilots in North America is making airlines notice!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisag.../#cf3aedc15492
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Old 31st Jan 2019, 11:32
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
SNIP

From the Forbes article below, the problem the industry faces is that the recruitment, training and promotion paths, indeed the very infrastructure in which this upgrade throughput occurs cannot cope with such a roll-off of experience from the top of the experience pile. It has not been seen before, thus the industry is ill equipped to deal with it. Leaving aside the Boeing projection' of growth, which, after all is marketing, the retirement rate alone is staggering and a function of date of birth. That it represents 50% of all airline pilots in North America is making airlines notice!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisag.../#cf3aedc15492
The looming demographic shortage purely due to the airlines allowing an age 'bulge' in their pilots, is one of the reasons for the pressure for reduced or remote pilots - with autonomous aircraft. There literally may be no other way of keeping some air carriers running.

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Old 31st Jan 2019, 20:17
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ian W View Post
The looming demographic shortage purely due to the airlines allowing an age 'bulge' in their pilots, is one of the reasons for the pressure for reduced or remote pilots - with autonomous aircraft. There literally may be no other way of keeping some air carriers running.
Automated aircraft?
With the pied piper at Tesla promising driverless cars, last year, this year and apparently us all living on Mars by 2020, one needs look a little beyond the marketing

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...-mountain-view

Perhaps before pilots scare themselves, the normal market clearing mechanism will likely become more obvious; improvements in terms and conditions will induce more supply.
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Old 1st Feb 2019, 23:14
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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There may be a shortage of (people willing to go 100k into debt for entry level jobs)
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Old 2nd Feb 2019, 02:07
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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If an experienced Airbus Captain/FO , wants to join , say Ryanair, they pay for the rating to work there.
If a similar experienced Boeing Captain/FO wants to join easyjet, they pay for their rating to work there.

If an experienced Airline Captain joins a legacy carrier, they start at the bottom.

Companies now want pilots ready trained, on a plate. So who's actually doing the training?
Ultimately, its the individuals themselves, at some point.

Therefore, there's no shortage of experienced crew, simply its not appealing to now change employer with the constraints of the modern
day recruitment processes and associated financial terms placed on accepting employment.
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Old 1st Mar 2019, 15:26
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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To Ensure its Planes have Pilots, Airbus is opening its own flight academy.
Aircraft manufacturers have been sounding the alarm of an upcoming airline pilot shortage around the globe.
Boeing has predicted an “unprecedented” demand of 790,000 pilots for airlines worldwide during the next 20 years due to “record-high air travel demand and a tightening labor supply.” Airbus predicts that Europe alone will need 94,000 new pilots during the next 20 years. So to help solve the problem, it has decided to start its own pilot academy.

Airbus Flight Academy
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Old 1st Mar 2019, 15:47
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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This job has simply become not appealing. Who the fiuck wants to spend 90 hours a month in flying tube for half of the money that once was made spending on it half . The life style money career path , beside legacy carrier and not all of them,, just sucks.

Last edited by STEXUP; 1st Mar 2019 at 16:34.
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Old 1st Mar 2019, 16:30
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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In the decades after WWII, you got trained by the military and moved to the airlines when your time was up. As previously noted, the military has cut way back on flying and training pilots. Last Summer I bumped into a squadron full of C-17 pilots hiking Logan Pass - all in their 20s with about 200 hours. Bottom line the military can turn out highly capable complex jet pilots in under 200 hours.

Then there was the time when civilian flight training was affordable for the wages on offer to younger folk. Your first job would get you out of your parents' basement and pay for flying. You could then instruct until the next step on the ladder opened up. Much less of that now.

The shortage is of people ready and able to plunk down $100,000+ on a lottery ticket for a long internship in a crap job on starvation wages that may or may not lead to a half decent job.
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Old 1st Mar 2019, 16:56
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying View Post
In the decades after WWII, you got trained by the military and moved to the airlines when your time was up. As previously noted, the military has cut way back on flying and training pilots.
​​​​​
That was not universally the case. In Europe it was airlines training their cadets largely inhouse right from the street in abinitio programs. Which lead eventually to the Lufthansa-developed MPL program that has been ICAO adopted quite a few years ago. The military was at best an additional source, but not the main one. However, both, the airlines and the military used a similar initial selection and training style, assuring a certain quality of trainees. Those selections still exist, however, the cost of the training has now been transferred from the airlines to the applicants.
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 14:13
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Hi
I find the facts interesting , something that is hard to come by these days.
The FAA" Estimated Active Airmen Certificates Held" table is very good.
From what gather there was 270 000 ATP and Commercial pilots in 2009.
As low as 254 000 in 2016.
And 262 000 as of December 2018.
I am just using the Fixed wing ATP and Commercial column only.
I would imagine from this there less pilots available for more jobs!
Crisis , not yet.
What I would love to know is the age groups of those ATPs
Regards
Cpt B
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 14:29
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BluSdUp View Post
What I would love to know is the age groups of those ATPs
Table 13 from this link for each year ?

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 16:12
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ian W View Post
To Ensure its Planes have Pilots, Airbus is opening its own flight academy.
Aircraft manufacturers have been sounding the alarm of an upcoming airline pilot shortage around the globe.
Boeing has predicted an “unprecedented” demand of 790,000 pilots for airlines worldwide during the next 20 years due to “record-high air travel demand and a tightening labor supply.” Airbus predicts that Europe alone will need 94,000 new pilots during the next 20 years. So to help solve the problem, it has decided to start its own pilot academy.

Airbus Flight Academy
Interesting. Anyone have info on costs for the airbus program? Couldn't locate info on the site.
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 16:47
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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As someone with 30 + years working in commercial aviation I can safely say I have never seen so much movement and so many opportunities for low time new entrants. However IMO I have also never seen such low levels of skill in new hires flying serious iron. Historically new pilots either worked their way up through the GA or 3rd level commuter school of hard knocks or came out of a gold plated airline run cadet program with a high entry bar and a very high level of training quality ( essentially the model that allows the Military to safely and effectively put a 300 hr pilot in a fighter jet).

Now in Europe there is essentially no GA and everyone comes out of an airline puppy mill where ability to pay is the main entry bar.

In Canada there is a real GA sector but there is such a demand that a MEIFR CPL, a pulse, and 500 hrs will force you to choose among multiple employment offers on Q400's and Regional jets.

It is only in the US that the ATPL requirements for virtually all airline jobs forces new pilots to make their bones in the real world before they get on with an airline. I think this process serves to weed out most of the unmotivated and the poseurs with the ones left being the the guys and gals who truly have the flying bug. I don't think it is coincidence that the US continues to leads the world in flight safety incident/accident metrics.
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 18:32
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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BafanGuy

Thanks
So , In 2002 CPL was average age 45,5 and ATPs 46,6 years.
In 2018 per 31 December FAA CPL active pilots was 46,3 so stable.
The ATPs on the other hand is average 51 years old, ie a massive retirement in progress!!!
Keep in mind that in 2009 there was 125 619 CPL and 144 600 ATP total 270 219 Fixed Wing pilots.
In 2018 there was only 262 015 total BUT 162 145 ATP and only 99 880 CPL, ergo the picture is worse then I suspected.

Need to digest this and would love to have the same in Europe.
( PS You can subtract a 54 year old ATP holder from that list, Yours truly.)
Just out of curiosity ,what is the contracted retirement age in the Majors and the Commuters, anyone?
Again BG : Thanks. The facts are out there, indeed!
Regards
Cpt B
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 18:53
  #35 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever View Post
I don't think it is coincidence that the US continues to leads the world in flight safety incident/accident metrics.
While I agree in general with your thoughts, and could not put most of it better even if I tried, one thing came to mind:

If easyJet in EU could be the overseas equivalent of Southwest: best paying LoCo and the most thoughtful of working conditions (okay okay, one eyed leading...)
- why the staggering difference in landing incidents?

Especially as what you write is really true and the most expensive jet-direct programme rooted from an EZY TRE back in the days.

Last edited by FlightDetent; 3rd Mar 2019 at 19:21.
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 19:15
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Average new hire at Southwest has over 3000 hrs, average new hire at Easyjet has 250......
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 19:20
  #37 (permalink)  

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Exactly my point.
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 20:03
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BluSdUp View Post
Just out of curiosity ,what is the contracted retirement age in the Majors and the Commuters, anyone?
As far as I know, it's the regulatory max age at FAR Part 121 operations. Some carriers will have a provision for early retirement with the details varying I'd imagine.

When I retired under a defined-benefit plan with a monthly annuity payout, the penalty was 3% per year early. I left 4 years ahead of the regulatory max age and lost 12% of what the full payout would've been. Then they terminated the pension plan and it all became moot.

I have no idea what airlines are doing today with a defined-contribution retirement plan.

In either case, retirement is based on regulatory max age.
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Old 3rd Mar 2019, 21:07
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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BG
Indeed, and in 2009 Congress decided 60 was to young and 65 was the magic number in FAA Land.
The reason I am asking is that it changed a bit earlier in Europe and KLM for example had 57 as the Contracted retirement age.
But as You say it is all in changing nowadays so my hobby statistics are , shall we say a bit up in the air!
But to conclude for today from what I can see from the FAA stats I can only conclude this.
1 January 2019 there is 162 145 ATPs . Most are Commanders with an average age of 51.
1 January 2019 there is 99 880 CPLs No Commanders with an average age of 46,6.
A grand total of 262 015 airline pilots.
Assuming quite a number of the FOs in the Majors and the Commuters are holding an ATP that means that the average Cpt is well over 51!

Indeed Boeing stated in 2016 that in 2026, 42% of ALL pilots flying for the Majors would have to retire for the 65 year limit.
A pilot crisis, potentially, ABSOLUTELY. Its in the numbers. Simple!
How to avoid?
Crank up the numbers!
On the Pay Check!
Simple!

Happy Days
Cpt B

Last edited by BluSdUp; 3rd Mar 2019 at 21:09. Reason: Dyslexia
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Old 4th Mar 2019, 10:12
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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I've read the Boeing and Airbus public stats that Asia will need some obscene number of pilots over the coming years.

I'm pretty sure Boeing and Airbus just pull those numbers out their ass.


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