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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

Old 8th Apr 2019, 05:13
  #101 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
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Found this on linkedin

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world...0WgCL2oZQqooI1
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 10:02
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Impress to inflate View Post
Qantas...

All correct.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 22:28
  #103 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
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Originally Posted by cumulustratus View Post
​​​​​​

The market rate of a pilot shouldn't be dictated in a board room, but in the intra European pilot union conferences!
Surely the market rate of a pilot is decided in exactly the same way as everyone else - by supply and demand. If there are enough kids who dont think that loading themselves up with 50k of debt is a great idea then there will be a pilot shortage and T&C's will rise.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 04:39
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by boeingeng View Post
with 50k of debt
50k only? More like 300k, counting with the TR and line training. In PTF airlines there are 600 guys waiting in line with the cash ready. I don't see any shortage here.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 04:53
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by boeingeng View Post
Surely the market rate of a pilot is decided in exactly the same way as everyone else - by supply and demand. If there are enough kids who dont think that loading themselves up with 50k of debt is a great idea then there will be a pilot shortage and T&C's will rise.
I knew someone would bite and write that. This is such a common thing to hear, especially in our community. But this is false, because it would mean that you see yourself as nothing more than a easily attainable commodity - but it isn't that simple. If the price of oil starts going down, does opec keep producing the same amount of barrels or do they adjust their output? You know the answer, and it's because they have the power to affect the market price by adjusting supply.

Its also false, because we cannot be replaced by average Joe on the street. So if the workforce in an airline disagree with T&C's, they can retract their labour, which also stops the training of their replacements (which by the way is a very slow process due to the nature of our business)

This is a process that was established in the beginning of the previous century, and there are usually very strong laws around Europe to protect the workers in that regard. It's the foundation of a healthy power balance between the provider and customer of the labour.

Personally I find that people from the UK in particular are very reluctant to accept this principle. It seems to be some odd remnant of the Thatcher era, where people seem to think that the profit of the company is the sole concern for all employees.

We're no different from people working in a mine or on a production line in a factory. We can all be replaced with cheaper versions of ourselves, it's up to us to stick together and make sure that costs more (for example by refusing to train our replacements or completely withdrawing our labour if management even try to replace us) than increasing our T&C's to a healthy level which reflects our responsibility and productivity.

Why is a medium size jet captain paid nearly twice as much ( gross, currency equivalent) in the US compared to comparable airlines in Europe? It sure isn't because the US guys fly twice as much.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 11:53
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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50k only? More like 300k, counting with the TR and line training.]
Why would a PTF pilot pay for line training on revenue flights?

ANY decent career will require a period of study, university is not free and never was, someone always paid. In Australia now you pay later once earning over about $40k a year.

I will take my job as a pilot over a desk job any day.

I think you are overstating the cost of obtaining a licence and MECIR.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 00:09
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Icarus,

While 300k might be a bit of an overstatement, 50k is also a massive understatement. I would love to know where I could log 200 hours, obtaining a CPL & MEIR in Australia for fifty grand.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 03:54
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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From those 300k, around 180 are for the line training itself, not counting NOT having a salary. If there was any shortage pilots wouldn't be doing this.

I take that a CPL IR in USA must be around 100k plus lodge for a year.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 11:11
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Where do you take these numbers? EASA fATPL in the Czech Republic from 0 to 200 cost me 33k euro in 2013. Now it's a little bit more expensive, but few grands more.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 17:24
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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From the guys on the right seat I fly with. I swear one of them even sold his granny's house.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 18:04
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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It cost me 26k eur (family loan) spread over a year and a half through various clubs and schools back in 2004-05. Did some part time jobs during, like working in a bar, gardening, flt.ops for a charter company, etc. Got a job flying in the bush down in Africa pretty much straight after qualifying, then worked my way up left and right seats of pistons, turboprops before making it to the left seat of a medium jet couple of years ago. Should work the same these days as well if one is happy to put their shiny jet syndrome apart for a short while, just my 2 cents. No offence intended.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 18:19
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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I recently applied for a job with an air taxi op near Boston flying cessna twins .I had read a story about them having to cancel flights due to a shortage of pilots . Having an Faa Cpl/Ir with some biz jet time, I sent them off my cv with the hope of coming to their rescue and landing myself a handy little number flying back and forward to marthas vineyard only to be told they werent taking on any foreign pilots, period. Ok i dont have a green card and I am a european citizen but surely if the're trying to fill a void in the market and they are "desperate" for crews they will somehow arrange sponsorship/ workpermit for the right guys. Problem solved

Pilot shortage or not, I rest my case.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 18:39
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Deec,
Do you have any idea how the USA immigration/work visa system operates?
To sponsor you for a Green Card would cost $15-25k and it isnt quick.

Do you even have an FAA license?
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 21:30
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Yes Faa qualified. Surely its easy to organise a work permit which gives you the right to live and work never mind a green card. A lot more companies need to provide sponsorship to pilots if there is a huge shortage in the US. Correct me if Im wrong but does a employer have to advertise a job in another country if it cant get the requirements in their own as long as the candidate is equally qualified and skilled. There was a big push years ago for truck drivers to come and work in the US, work permits and residency assured... Whats the difference ?Why cant they do the same for pilots ? Problem solved
Rest my case !
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Old 11th Apr 2019, 02:58
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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There is only really the E 3 visa for Australian residents. Not sure if it’s days are numbered
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Old 11th Apr 2019, 05:09
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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50k only? More like 300k, counting with the TR and line training.
While 300k might be a bit of an overstatement, 50k is also a massive understatement.
Okay so here are some Australian figures, so Australian dollars.

Commercial Pilot Licence - Melbourne Flight Training

PPL ~ $15,000 CPL ~ $ 33,000 Multi IFR ~ $26,000 TOTAL $74,000. Which is around USD$53,000

Add 10% for variables... Around A$80,000 or USD$ 58,000 to end up with a CPL and Multi engine instrument rating.

Now tell me, what is the cost of an arts or accounting degree at university?

https://student.unsw.edu.au/fees-stu...ribution-rates

Between A$7000 and A$11,000 pa depending on the subject studied. So a three year degree is between A$21,000 and A$33,000 and a four year degree is between A$28,000 and A$44,000

One third to half the cost of pilot training. Who can train more quickly and start earning? Measured against first year salary.

I don't think it is doom and gloom at all for someone looking to become a pilot in 2019.
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Old 11th Apr 2019, 23:59
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Icarus, Interesting that your sums suggest a combined 3yr degree and CPL MEIR add up to $107,000(AUD) (assuming your worst case estimate for course fees) - yet the universities in Australia are charging their students close to 150k for aviation degrees.
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Old 12th Apr 2019, 03:26
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Are they really? Do you have a link or can you suggest a university that advertises this?
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Old 12th Apr 2019, 03:53
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Sure can.

UniSA require that you complete a bachelor of aviation. This is a three year course at a 'Band 2' rate of $9,359 per year. Total cost is $28,077. In addition to the Bachelor degree, the practical flying component is complete through concurrent enrolment in a Graduate Diploma in Aviation. UniSA's website states that the total cost for this component is $104,500. All up, the total cost is $132,577.

For UNSW, their aviation program states that the practical flying fees are $130,000 and that this is "in addition to the academic course fees for the Bachelor of Aviation". The academic fees are the same as UniSA (i.e. Band 2, $9,359p.a.). Therefore, the UNSW program total cost is $158,077. Admittedly, the UNSW program includes ATPL theory and exams in addition to CPL & MEIR.
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Old 18th Apr 2019, 23:31
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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While this seems to be more of a US issue, it gets kicked around enough that I'll post this article. It's the first time I've seen the media address the subject of the college degree requirement of some US legacy airlines. They don't cover this from the airline management side to get what they're thinking about it:

https://psmag.com/education/what-an-...gher-education
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