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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

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Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

Old 23rd May 2019, 16:58
  #121 (permalink)  
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A very interesting article about redundant requirements for becoming a pilot with major US airlines, bafanguy! I do think that European airline industry also has some redundant requirements. I will give you an example. It used to be time, when nobody needed MCC training. But then somebody said that a pilot with MCC is a better pilot. How? Better engagement with the flight and cabin crew? Let it be - fair point. Now it is a default training that every cadet buys. Then somebody invented JOC training. What is the purpose of it? To understand that jet engines are powerful? Fine, if you are going to fly jets. But if you are going to fly dash q400 for 5-8 years, what is the purpose of asking for JOC training (example of Flybe reqruitment)? And now according to EASA and Ryanair, it turns out that MCC and JOC does not make you a better pilot. So... lets introduce some APS training. Another expensive money making machine, which should make you a better pilot. Will it? Probably not. It looks just a business case to take more money from cadets and/or save the pilots job market from newcomers. The same looks to be the case with US higher education requirements for pilots.
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Old 31st May 2019, 10:39
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mryan75 View Post

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.
not true, he actually quit BA to go fly in China. Guess he’s chasing the big bucks to fund his wish, which I believe was to code. Unfortunately it seems everyone wants to come up with the next must have app; and get rich quick.
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Old 1st Jun 2019, 09:07
  #123 (permalink)  

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Unless his videos have been completely fake, more likely he's chasing the time off to persue his non aviation, cash cow plan.
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 15:54
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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I don't see the logic. If the training is expensive that is one reason why so few pilots can afford it and is one of the prime reasons for the shortage, surely? If it was cheaper there would be more pilots available because more people would be able to afford it.
In the US there is also the requirement for a pilot wishing to fly for an airline to have an ATP with 1500 hours and a very expensive period of time in a major simulator, which all adds a lot to the cost. A youngster in school looks at this and most often decides the cost and time are way not worth it given that she will be nearly as old as Dad when she gets her first real job. Especially if she also wants a four year degree which alone will cost more than the pilot training.
In the good old days one could aspire to an airline job, at least in the Regionals, with around 800 hours which was doable; not much money waiting but there was enough to justify the cost of training. Not so any longer, even with the increase in pilot salaries it will be a long time before any new pilot will break even.
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 19:08
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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The more difficult it is for new entrants to come in the better it is for current pilots, basic supply and demand.

I ain't complaining ...
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Old 4th Jun 2019, 02:22
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A320LGW View Post
The more difficult it is for new entrants to come in the better it is for current pilots, basic supply and demand.

I ain't complaining ...
That is short sighted. If there are not enough pilots then companies will shrink or go out of business, leading to a job shortage which might leave YOU out to dry.
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Old 4th Jun 2019, 09:44
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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I guess we can all relax now and consider the pilot "shortage" solved. The government is on the case:

"The Air Force and the FAA have announced a collaborative effort to counter the national aircrew shortage, May 31."

FAA Announces Partnership With Air Force | Aero-News Network
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Old 4th Jun 2019, 12:26
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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There is no shortage of pilots. There is a shortage of airlines who wish to pay what a pilot is truly worth.
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Old 4th Jun 2019, 14:43
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by boofhead View Post
That is short sighted. If there are not enough pilots then companies will shrink or go out of business, leading to a job shortage which might leave YOU out to dry.
That won't happen, right before an airline calls it quits someone will come up with the crazy idea of actually training the pilots they need so bad to stay in business.

Airlines have had it too comfy cos fools like us paid for our training ... tables must turn.
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Old 4th Jun 2019, 22:03
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yoko1 View Post
There is no shortage of pilots. There is a shortage of airlines who wish to pay what a pilot is truly worth.
On a related note, here's another media example of pilot "shortage". I'd suggest this isn't a pilot shortage but a management shortage:

https://japantoday.com/category/busi...pilot-shortage
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Old 4th Jun 2019, 22:17
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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Pilot shortage ? Hal9000 will take care ...
“ Airbus Accelerates AI Ahead Of Looming Pilot Shortage
Guy Norris
As the civil aerospace industry looks increasingly to artificial intelligence (AI) to help improve safety standards, and amid the looming potential for a global pilot shortage, Airbus is stepping up research into autonomous systems and the potential for single-pilot operations.
As part of these efforts, the manufacturer has created Airbus AIGym, a platform that is being used to evaluate the use of AI and machine learning to tackle real issues across the enterprise—including autonomous systems for the flight deck. Through the initiative, Airbus is encouraging research in specific areas such as speech recognition by issuing a series of challenges that are open to companies, research laboratories, academia and individuals.
The air traffic control (ATC) speech-recognition challenge, which closed late in 2018, will be followed shortly by another aimed at devising AI systems capable of identifying and recognizing taxiway signs. The work supports the development of autonomous taxiing capability and is designed to feed into the company’s Automated Takeoff and Landing (ATTOL) demonstration program, which is planned for flight tests in the mid-2020s. The project is intended to leverage computer vision technologies and techniques to enable an aircraft to navigate and detect obstacles during taxi, takeoff, approach and landing.
“How do we reduce the workload on pilots as airspace becomes more congested? How do we continuously improve safety and cope with the envisioned shortage of pilots?” asks Airbus Chief Technology Officer Grazia Vittadini. “Today we have 200,000 type-rated commercial pilots. If we apply market projections, we will have around 50,000 aircraft in service after 2037. That means we will need 600,000 pilots over the next 20 years.”
The threat of an industry-wide pilot shortage is “pushing us toward automated systems with the alternate ambition to go for autonomy powered by artificial intelligence,” says Vittadini. “That’s a challenge not to be underestimated, especially for certification. The certification of systems based on nondeterministic inputs is not trivial. It is a page of aviation we have not yet written, but we are starting to write it now with partners and regulators,” she explains.
Airbus believes areas such as communications and navigation represent early potential opportunities for AI to support or supplement current cockpit tasks. The recently concluded contest to develop ATC speech recognition, for example, focused on areas such as standard audio transcription and call-sign extraction and produced “tangible results” from 25 finalists, says Vittadini. “But it is just the beginning, and we are about to launch another challenge along those lines to identify and recognize taxiway signs,” she notes.
In a related area, Airbus Defense and Space already is working with mobility provider ZF Friedrichshafen to enhance an autonomous system for self-driving cars and self-positioning vehicles using ground-control points calculated using Airbus-derived satellite data. For the work in Germany, the positioning information is being combined with lidar and radar data provided by ZF sensors.
Autonomous sense-and-avoid system technology for ATTOL is being developed by Wayfinder, a project spun out of the Silicon Valley-based Airbus A3 team working on the Vahana electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing demonstrator. “Wayfinder is developing machine learning and one of the bricks of the more automated and autonomous systems work for ATTOL,” says Vittadini.
“We plan to solve the most challenging problems in developing scalable, certifiable autonomy systems to power self-piloted aircraft applications throughout Airbus, from small urban air taxis like Vahana to large commercial airplanes,” Wayfinder's director of engineering, Alex Naiman, says in a recent blog post.
Describing the individual challenge areas as technology “bricks” that will provide the foundation for future demonstrations and development, Vittadini says that beyond the ATTOL program lies the company’s longer-term ambition to create a reduced-crew aircraft and, ultimately, a fully autonomous aircraft. But she cautions that it will take a long time to reach these targets.
“Let’s not forget it took us 60 years to go from four-crew cockpits to two-crew, so we won’t get there anytime soon,” Vittadini notes. “But yes, it is an ambition and we have planned the steps. So we will go from ATTOL to reduced-crew operations in which we can have single-pilot operations in certain phases of flight such as during cruise.”
The initiative is supported by work on a “Disruptive Cockpit” simulator at the company’s Toulouse headquarters. Developed as part of Europe’s Clean Sky 2 research program, the project is focused on demonstrating new functions, computing resources and communications. These include cockpit procedure automation, pilot-monitoring systems such as eye-tracking, head-worn displays, ground collision avoidance, new navigation sensors, voice-recognition systems for communications with ATC and airline operations, multimodal integration for flight crew interfaces, tactile head-mounted instruments and image-based landing systems.
“The flight deck is accessible; we are testing it with our own test pilots and customers. It’s a journey and a long journey, but safety is first, and we will take it step by step,” Vittadini adds. “We are already testing different bricks of a possible single-pilot operation in our enhanced multicrew cockpit where we study what it would mean in cruise to have the copilot resting in his or her seat and an active captain in the left seat. So we are studying several potential combinations of solutions “

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Old 4th Jun 2019, 23:13
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by boofhead View Post
That is short sighted. If there are not enough pilots then companies will shrink or go out of business, leading to a job shortage which might leave YOU out to dry.
So in your scenario:

Airline Middle Manager: "Big Boss CEO, we are in trouble! We have a fleet of 200 aircraft, but only pilots to cover 150 of them!"

Big Boss CEO: "That's unfortunate! Let's fire 33% of the workforce and get rid of 100 aircraft. Solved!" *mike drop gesture*

Airline Middle Manager: *teary eyed slow clap*

Anyone else see the flaw in this reasoning?
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Old 5th Jun 2019, 07:41
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A320LGW View Post
That won't happen, right before an airline calls it quits someone will come up with the crazy idea of actually training the pilots they need so bad to stay in business.

Airlines have had it too comfy cos fools like us paid for our training ... tables must turn.
I doubt it. Right before the airline calls quits it will be way too late to start a pilot training program.
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Old 5th Jun 2019, 12:32
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Luckily Icelandair are releasing a bunch of guys, something to do with grounded 737s.
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Old 6th Jun 2019, 01:33
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nick 1 View Post
Pilot shortage ? Hal9000 will take care ...
, Vittadini says that beyond the ATTOL program lies the company’s longer-term ambition to create a reduced-crew aircraft and, ultimately, a fully autonomous aircraft. But she cautions that it will take a long time to reach these targets.
“Let’s not forget it took us 60 years to go from four-crew cockpits to two-crew, so we won’t get there anytime soon,” Vittadini notes. “But yes, it is an ambition and we have planned the steps. So we will go from ATTOL to reduced-crew operations in which we can have single-pilot operations in certain phases of flight such as during cruise.”
The initiative is supported by work on a “Disruptive Cockpit” simulator at the company’s Toulouse headquarters. Developed as part of Europe’s Clean Sky 2 research program, the project is focused on demonstrating new functions, computing resources and communications. These include cockpit procedure automation, pilot-monitoring systems such as eye-tracking, head-worn displays, ground collision avoidance, new navigation sensors, voice-recognition systems for communications with ATC and airline operations, multimodal integration for flight crew interfaces, tactile head-mounted instruments and image-based landing systems.
“The flight deck is accessible; we are testing it with our own test pilots and customers. It’s a journey and a long journey, but safety is first, and we will take it step by step,” Vittadini adds. “We are already testing different bricks of a possible single-pilot operation in our enhanced multicrew cockpit where we study what it would mean in cruise to have the copilot resting in his or her seat and an active captain in the left seat. So we are studying several potential combinations of solutions “

The interesting question is that as this thinking becomes more widely diffused and talked about across the industry, will it influence the decision to take the high degree of financial risk to undertake training with the fear that HAL will be coming to take your future job or your pay?

The industry is put in a bind by this type of research, it may actually exacerbate the problem by generating a self fulfilling prophecy. It's not hard to find examples where technology has had a significant determent to employment and renumeration (Uber and Lyft has decimating the global Taxi industry). As software moves up the "human stack" and eats it, humans may choose not to play.
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Old 6th Jun 2019, 18:08
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nick 1
where we study what it would mean in cruise to have the copilot resting in his or her seat and an active captain in the left seat. So we are studying several potential combinations of solutions “
Well, B*gger Me. We do that already! It’s called ‘controlled rest’🙄🙄

Amazingly sometimes the Captain rests in his or her seat and there is an active FO or Captain in the right seat!!!!!!!!
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Old 11th Jun 2019, 12:56
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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Most all of the articles about the impending shortage just restate the same info. Here's the latest example:

https://aviationvoice.com/pilot-hung...-201906101447/
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Old 12th Jun 2019, 04:15
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Yet very few articles cover the financial and human costs to being a pilot 42k yr for a 1st yr mainline. Piffle, i am in corporate now and loving it. Last year i was away probably 100 days and making the same as a 10 yr regional captain.
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Old 13th Jun 2019, 00:10
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by bafanguy View Post
Most all of the articles about the impending shortage just restate the same info. Here's the latest example:

https://aviationvoice.com/pilot-hung...-201906101447/
The aviation voice is owned by the aviasolutions group. The aviasolutions group also own BAA flight academy. See where this is going?

The same "publication" (put in quotation marks because it is a charade masquerading as a professional magazine) also ranked BAA as the 3rd best and largest school in Europe and subsequently the world ... how surprising.
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Old 13th Jun 2019, 00:18
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Originally Posted by A320LGW View Post
The aviation voice is owned by the aviasolutions group. The aviasolutions group also own BAA flight academy. See where this is going?

The same "publication" (put in quotation marks because it is a charade masquerading as a professional magazine) also ranked BAA as the 3rd best and largest school in Europe and subsequently the world ... how surprising.
Well done.

Nothing more important than checking source and motivation.
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