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EASY_OUT

Old 24th Jun 2016, 17:33
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Aluminium S.

No, I'm not scaremongering. I've outline the challenges that the UK WILL experience as they move from a fully liberalised aviation market to a more traditional one - something Switzeland has with the EU.

If the UK does not wish to be in the free movement of people then, at best, they will get a liberalised, but not fully liberalised air service agreement with the EU. 1st to 5ths, at most. Switzerland, which has free movement, has just that. No 7ths, 8ths or 9ths. This means Easy and Ryanair are ****ed. They have few options, and even fewer if EU countries decide to play hardball.

Spain had already announced that Gibraltar is on the table. Elgin Marbles and Cypriot Soverign bases will soon join them.

But please, let's leave the politics to JB. It has happened and nothing is going to change that. It's time to face the consequences.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 20:05
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Trading conditions in the UK aviation market was already very tough and its been quite surprising that the airlines have been quite resilient to it and there hasn't been a major failure, albeit a couple of very near misses.

The threat from terrorism in Egypt and Turkey; two strong tourism destinations (the former an important winter destination for UK airlines) and the migrant crisis also affecting Greece is forcing UK tourists to the west of Europe. Airlines are moving their capacity, however there's only a finite amount these resorts can take and now there's a shortage of accommodation. As such its become a race to the bottom and massively important yields are diminished because there's now overcapacity. The summer season is what keeps many airlines afloat.

The UK government also float an uncompetitive APD, hidden as a 'green tax' which tries to suppress demand.

The industry needed this result like a hole in the head. Undoubtedly this will cost jobs and a further suppression of terms and conditions.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 21:22
  #43 (permalink)  

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From Flying Headbutt.
My God there really is some pedalled on this forum sometimes. Nobody knows what will happen but the dust will eventually settle and the sun will continue to rise in East.
Yes, and if my ageing memory is correct, airlines managed to fly from one country to another before the creation of the EU, and will probably continue to do so long after the EU has gone.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 21:47
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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I don't for a second pretend to understand this all, but FR will continue to be an EU airline so will keep the rights they have now except for internal UK services. (If Scotland leaves the Union that may change). These could be negotiated, otherwise FR would need to set up a UK subsidiary.

The UK & Ireland have a common travel area which was negotiated prior to the UK joining the EU and this includes the right to work in both countries. Presumably this won't change. However it MAY mean that UK pilots could only be based in Ireland. Or be based in DUB but spend many nights away at EU airports. Of course, if FR can sponsor pilots for Irish citizenship problem solved. How long must you be resident in NI to be eligible for Irish citizenship.

U2 would require a subsidiary in any EU country.

Now it gets complicated. If FR/U2 wish to operate a common fleet could they wet lease aircraft as an when required from the UK & EU? This may be for individual sectors so that a plane & crew flies EDI - LGW for U2(UK) then LGW - AMS for U2(EU). Both would presumably have rights for AMS - EDI.

As other posts have said the danger is if someone wants to make a political point. However the LoCos must have political clout and common sense may prevail.

Just my thoughts.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:09
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Herod.

Before the creation of the EU British and Irish airlines did not fly intra European routes or domestics in Europe such as Ryanair Stn Edi or easyjet Ory Nce. That is what we are banging on about.

Last edited by bar none; 24th Jun 2016 at 22:10. Reason: spelling
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:18
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Its almost as staggering as the result of this travesty of "democracy" to read people saying Ryanair is in the same basket as EJ. I know logic and rationale have been suspended for the week but...

Let me try to explain in Senior Officer's terms...

Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.

Easyjet, on the other hand, is NOT going to be in the EU. It will therefore NOT be able to fly the - what? I guess - 90% of its routes that are EU to EU. Now I know maths and logic are not at a premium after today's vote but rest assured that this means EJ are quite likely to lose 90% of their network. How do you suppose that might affect EJ's business compared to Ryanair's?

Easyjet is done for, tragically. Ryanair and the other EU junk carriers will expand to fill the space in the next couple of years. Common sense can clearly play no part whatsoever and as our poor, sad, dying country no longer has any political clout what on earth do you think a mere failing loco airline might do to change matters?

Well voted, Lemmings!
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:44
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Easyjet is done for, tragically. Ryanair and the other EU junk carriers will expand to fill the space in the next couple of years. Common sense can clearly play no part whatsoever and as our poor, sad, dying country no longer has any political clout what on earth do you think a mere failing loco airline might do to change matters?

Well voted, Lemmings!

24th Jun 2016 22:09

Thought we said this sort of stuff belonged in JB.

As it happens, EZ is most likely to follow IAG's example and seek a place on the Zurich, Amsterdam or Frankfurt Stock Exchange instead of the London Stock Exchange.

As long as the company changes its statute to be legally incorporated, or create a new holding company for its intra-EU operations, in an EU country, it doesn't really matter where the myriad individual shareholders are domiciled.

As for MO'L's train set, of course he's pi88ed off - most of his growth the past 10 years or so and and a huge portion of his revenue comes from shifting the fruit pickers and warehouse staffers between the UK and Eastern European countries. Replacing this traffic will be far more difficult and problematic than EZ's transition to a Swiss, Dutch or German company.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:51
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.

Easyjet, on the other hand, is NOT going to be in the EU. It will therefore NOT be able to fly the - what? I guess - 90% of its routes that are EU to EU. Now I know maths and logic are not at a premium after today's vote but rest assured that this means EJ are quite likely to lose 90% of their network. How do you suppose that might affect EJ's business compared to Ryanair's?
How about Ryanair's UK-continental EU traffic, on 7th freedom rights? still allowed?
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 23:08
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Peter47
The UK & Ireland have a common travel area which was negotiated prior to the UK joining the EU and this includes the right to work in both countries. Presumably this won't change. However it MAY mean that UK pilots could only be based in Ireland. Or be based in DUB but spend many nights away at EU airports. Of course, if FR can sponsor pilots for Irish citizenship problem solved. How long must you be resident in NI to be eligible for Irish citizenship.
Irish citizenship requirements:
Who can become an Irish citizen?

It's a shame I don't meet any as I'd have snapped one up by now.

I have heard very little about the CTA in this whole big mess of a referendum. It's been around for a long time and I am not sure why all the talk about borders in NI are so loud. Seems like the DUP have just been waiting to build a wall of their own for ages and an excuse has finally come up.

The CTA could easily remain and GB/IE just continue as they do now, it makes no odds that one is in the EU or not, neither are in schengen and they could just introduce a shared visa system and shared monitoring of who comes in and when/where. Being islands there is only one of 2 countries someone is going to be able to move around before having to show a passport to get out of one of them. I don't see why there would be any need to end this agreement, just a slight enhancement on the external borders, based purely on convenience of the sheer numbers of people who cross between GB/IE every day, by land, sea and air it'd be pretty retrograde to impose major checks.

The current cross border set up of random checks on vehicles by land and sea and checking ID on flights should suffice. There would be barely any illegals coming in via Ireland anyway as they aren't in Schengen so anyone heading there needs a passport or visa anyway. The fact you can only get in by ship or plane from mainland Europe limits the numbers somewhat. In all probability the UK is, much to the annoyance of many a brexiteer, highly unlikely to impose anything other than slightly watered down free movement of people, again, purely for practical reasons. If the UK or EU wants to change that then both set to lose out, so it'd be pointless. The UK needs it's citizens to easily get access to Europe and in order to get that then we will have to accept the opposite.

Yes, there may be the odd work or residence permit to obtain for people working or settling after we actually leave, but that will probably just be there to know who came after the brexit date and therefore won't get access to free NHS or Benefits, for however long, for example. The talk of "controlling our borders" has many connotations and actually lowering the numbers physically coming may not be one of them as even the brexiteers know that'd be pretty self defeatist in a continent as closely linked as Europe. Restricting people once they are here is a different matter as by doing that they can indirectly lower the numbers by making it less attractive to come here. I hardly think we will become something like Belarus.

UK customs procedures will not likely change from what they are now, so there is no issue there as currently IE is the same as us anyway. Most countries, EU or not, follow pretty much the same customs rules anyway.

So basically all this vote may end up actually doing is taking the UK and Europe through years of market uncertainty and expensive, strung out ,late night talks in board rooms in Brussels all for nearly nothing. In the end we will more than likely end up in a situation not that different to what we have now, only millions of tiny trade deal details and other Pan European legislation will have been torn to shreds and then pretty much stuck back together again to refer to the UK as an external market. Benefits like EU roaming capping, various workers rights, the ability to truly freely work and live abroad, the safety of being able to use any EU embassy in the event of an emergency abroad or the ruling about not being able to charge men more than women on car insurance will vanish to our detriment. Doesn't make sense to me, but that's the way it's gone!

Oh, and Scotland might walk away from it all too!

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Old 24th Jun 2016, 23:23
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTEAs it happens, EZ is most likely to follow IAG's example and seek a place on the Zurich, Amsterdam or Frankfurt Stock Exchange instead of the London Stock Exchange.

As long as the company changes its statute to be legally incorporated, or create a new holding company for its intra-EU operations, in an EU country, it doesn't really matter where the myriad individual shareholders are domiciled.[/QUOTE]

If EZ does move to a country in the EU, what will happen to their crew (pilots and cabin crew). To work in the EU one must have the legal right to do so and by exiting the EU all the UK nationals loose that right.
Personally I doubt EU will hand out work permits to UK nationals just because they used to be part of it.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 00:12
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed....

I'm sure that there will be some Flight Crews who will be messed around.

Equally, there will be quite a few who will finally get the base the've been waiting for since forever - whether UK nationals currently stuck in the EU, or EU crews currently stuck in the UK - as crews are transferred around the network between the two operating units. It's amazing how Management can accomplish these transfers at times of crisis but can't do it at times of non-crisis.

The other option, of course, is for EZ service in the UK to be operated by ACMI arrangement with EZ aircraft from the EU based legal entity ( or the other way round, of course ) as schedules require. Absolutely certain that the UK would not object to this - the EU might need persuading.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 01:14
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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That corporate message from Carolyn McCall must rank as one of the most wishful thinking CEO statements ever issued. Appealing to governments who have nothing to gain and a lot to lose to expedite their request that Britain remains part Of the single EU aviation market. It simply is not going to happen.


It was made very clear today by European leaders that Britain will not be allowed to cherry pick EU benefits. Britain is out of the EU and that includes the single EU aviation market.

Last edited by polax52; 25th Jun 2016 at 01:32.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 01:21
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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To remain the right of EU-EU flights Easy Jet will have to get an AOC in the EU. ( Or use their Swiss AOC). EU Airline must not be owned and controlled by non-EU investores. The planes therefore will have to be registered in the respective EU-Country. To fly these planes by british nationals they must have the right to work and live in the EU. UK will be granted these rights only if they grant them to EU-Nationals as well. But this is one of, if not the crutial point, why the Brexeteers want to leave the EU. So if things really go bad, the big loosers will be the Easy Jet Crews with a british passport. Their planes will move, and they might not be allowed to follow them
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 08:49
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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totally correct................
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:27
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Europe must be very punitive otherwise the EU disintegrates into pre-WW2 factions.
The EU is well along the way to that already, without any help from the UK. What’s going to happen to Greece when the money runs out again? Spain with 24% unemployment (>50% for the young)? Italy which is split in two with deep structural problems, etc. Unless you’re Germany or France (which is displaying alarming symptoms of recent times) it must be quite worrying.

I didn’t vote to leave but I can understand the feelings of some of those that did. We see now the true colours of people like Juncker who are the unelected emperors of Europe. Things didn’t go exactly their way so they turn nasty (one suspects that they were like that all along when dealing with the upstart UK). Unlike the actual leaders of the individual EU countries, who are sad at the prospective loss and speak very diplomatically about it.

The EU started as the EEC, which was a collection of trade agreements and other things to facilitate this. I see an eventual return to this original state as, IMO, the economies, politics and aspirations of the remaining countries are just too disparate to remain glued together as a superstate in the long term.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:34
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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FullWings:

One of the most reasoned posts I have seen on this forum so far. Ultimately this will change the whole shape of Europe, whether the politicians like it or not.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:38
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Metro man
As 40% of European air traffic is to/from the UK it's too important a market to disregard and arrangements will need to be made.
Where did you get that figure from?
Source?
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 12:59
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.
And all routes between UK and EU countries other than Ireland. (7th freedom) Guessing more than 80% of their flights (??)
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 13:19
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....and those of us flying UK registered aircraft with an EU license and EU passport? Same thing potentially as for the British pilots in EU I guess? Might get a letter over next few years getting the boot as they will hire British nationals to replace us. This will be such a mess on so many levels...
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 13:30
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No way will that happen to you. Never. No chance.
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