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EASY_OUT

Old 24th Jun 2016, 08:40
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EASY_OUT

It's too early to say but, I have already been approached this morning from interested parties to start thinking about the new realities of EU-UK in the aviation market:

1-an old airline is ready to demand EASY out of their country and EU market.
2-some aviation investors, want to start ASAP with a new LLC.
3-1 big ATO already thinking about the consequences for their UK clients...

Just saying...

Interesting times ahead. Unfortunately the Rome treaty is basically the armageddon for BREXIT...and people are starting to think about using it!

Poor good old Britain.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 09:15
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Even with a local AOC and shareholding group?
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 09:33
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Do you believe that the Germans had not thought about that? DLH has a major problem: they need Eurowings to be successful and they will play all the political power in their sleeves in order to have that.

Negotiations will be long and could turn any direction but, remember that EU is mostly run by Germans...
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 09:46
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New AOC. Job done. What's the problem?
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 09:56
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Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:00
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As the current way to set up an airline seems to involve contract crews on IOM registered, Bahamian-leased aircraft paid through a subsidiary in Lichtenstein, the whole thing is so obfuscated that no-one really knows who owns and runs what. Add in all the complicated agreements and conventions between nations and blocs and I don’t see much changing, really.

IAG, for one, seem to have seen this coming (or are fortuitous) as they are both in and out of the EU simultaneously...
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:17
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I think it is not about the EEA, but the the ECAA (European Common Aviation Area).

Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....
Norway is part of the ECAA - the UK would need to negotiate a membership with the EU. And I see little incentive to let the UK in as European airlines have more to loose than to win from that. Norway is mainly in because otherwise SAS could not have been accommodated and nobody thought of Norwegian back then. All other ECAA members are really minor players and were let in because they pose no threat. Switzerland as a non-ECAA member has a bilateral with the EU, but this linked to other bilaterals that entail some of the very rights that led the Brits to brexit.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:18
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Fullwings IOM aircraft cannot be used for anything other than general aviation indeed if you know of any A/C with an 'M' registration being used commercially I would urge to bring that to the authorities.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:47
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Originally Posted by Plastic787
New AOC. Job done. What's the problem?
new AOC. Job done. What's the problem?
I do not believe is going to be that easy...

I am sure they will make provisions against those kind of solutions. There are lots of players that will gain from restricting UK companies...
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:49
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Fullwings IOM aircraft cannot be used for anything other than general aviation indeed if you know of any A/C with an 'M' registration being used commercially I would urge to bring that to the authorities.
It was more of an invented example using as many tax havens and dodgy jurisdictions as I could think of rather than absolute reality. Although that comes close, sometimes...
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:53
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There are lots of players that will gain from restricting UK companies...
Too right, but if our negotiators are any good such restrictions will work both ways. If you want open skies then so do we.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 10:55
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Originally Posted by REMAX11
Do you believe that the Germans had not thought about that? DLH has a major problem: they need Eurowings to be successful and they will play all the political power in their sleeves in order to have that.

Negotiations will be long and could turn any direction but, remember that EU is mostly run by Germans...
Where is the problem? You can't enjoy the benefits of a club and in the same time give back the membership and bad-mouth about the club. Yes they have to negotiate, and yes the negotiations will be tough because there is no future discount for the U.K. The voters decided, now they have to deal with it. **** happens....
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:01
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Originally Posted by Piltdown Man
Too right, but if our negotiators are any good such restrictions will work both ways. If you want open skies then so do we.
The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same. Also, the EU is likely to take a tough stance on the UK "pour encourager les autres": there are separationists in other countries, albeit not on such a large scale as in the UK.

The decision has been made yesterday and as good democrats the Europeans have to accept it. Whatever may happen, I wish the UK all the best and, yes, good luck as well on their new solitary way.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:05
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As 40% of European air traffic is to/from the UK it's too important a market to disregard and arrangements will need to be made. How about pilot's licenses ? Back to the old British Licence perhaps ?

What about pilots working for Ryanair in EU bases with a British passport, will they need to apply for work permits ? An Irish passport is now much more valuable than a British one as the Irish have always had the right to live and work in the UK and can also do the same in any EU country.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:10
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Metro Man, is that O/D traffic or is it transfer?

In the first case, this number is not unlikely to shrink with less EU citizens taking up residency in the UK and travelling between their original country and their new home.

In the second case, this is likely to shrink as well as long as there is no open skies agreement. This will benefit the continental European airlines not insignificantly, so expect pressure from those on the EU to mind their position when negotiating the impending divorce.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:12
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How about pilot's licenses ? Back to the old British Licence perhaps ?
Licenses are EASA based. EASA in NOT the EU.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:20
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Originally Posted by Tu.114
The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same. Also, the EU is likely to take a tough stance on the UK "pour encourager les autres": there are separationists in other countries, albeit not on such a large scale as in the UK.

The decision has been made yesterday and as good democrats the Europeans have to accept it. Whatever may happen, I wish the UK all the best and, yes, good luck as well on their new solitary way.
The future negotiations are also a signal for other countries and their possible vote. I don't expect any discount for the UK. Tough negotiations ahead....
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:31
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No need to worry to much
easyJet eyes new European operation if Britain flies solo
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 11:38
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EASA is an agency of the European Union and may be unwilling to issue licences on the strength of a non member country's aviation authority. Perhaps the old CAA Licence will be reintroduced and pilots wanting an EASA Licence will need to do the tests in Europe.

Employing UK nationals would be less attractive for low costs with multiple bases across Europe as work permits would be needed. Any British based low cost operating intra European flights needs to start thinking about its future base of operations.

Britain has always had a trading relationship with the rest of Europe, it will be interesting to see what form the new one will take. Malaysia kicked Singapore out in 1965, on its own Singapore has done far better over the last 50 years.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 12:13
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The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same.
Hmm. If it came to playing hardball, the UK could withdraw from the International Air Services Transit Agreement, as Canada did in 1988, and negotiate individual transit agreements with other countries. How inconvenient would it be for EU airlines to be denied overflight of UK airspace on the way to North America?

Anyway, no need to get over-excited - it's only the day after the vote! At least two years to go before actual exit! Lots of time for common sense to prevail. If common sense doesn't prevail - well, we'll know who our friends really are, and who our enemies are.

Last edited by OldLurker; 24th Jun 2016 at 12:14. Reason: Clarify
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