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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:26
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Ok so the story appears to be the "rebels" used a captured Ukrainian military, Russian made, BUK missile launcher and shot the aircraft down.

They question I have to any military people out there is how hard would it be to use said launcher. Could they have just read the manual so to speak or would formal training be required and who would have trained them?
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:33
  #182 (permalink)  
 
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The Ukranian rebels could have had a complete launch crew as defectors. However, see my post on the previous page, the rebels have denied having such a crew.
Chances of a random group of rebels reading the manual and operating it without Russian help? Zero.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:40
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mud Skipper
Ok so the story appears to be the "rebels" used a captured Ukrainian military, Russian made, BUK missile launcher and shot the aircraft down.

They question I have to any military people out there is how hard would it be to use said launcher. Could they have just read the manual so to speak or would formal training be required and who would have trained them?
No chance.

Those SAM systems, especially the older ones (the Buk before the modernization program), are extremely difficult to operate. You need a full team of trained personnel to operate and maintain them, plus supply, command and control, radar etc...

It's not a point and shoot portable SAM like a Stinger or Strela, and even those require a fair amount of training.

Regards.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:43
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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@ Mud Skipper

10 people with solid military training are needed to operate this kind of missile, according to an "undisclosed military expert working for Airbus Group" in this article (fr)

Le crash du Boeing de la Malaysia est «*un acte forcément volontaire »
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:44
  #185 (permalink)  
 
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BUK is an old system which is relatively easy to operate for someone who had operated similar system AND is provided instructions by someone else, rebels probably have such people and maybe even defectors from ukrainian army who operated BUK before

however identification of targets is something which requires experience and I'm not at all surprised with this seeing ukrainian authorities letting civilian aircrafts almost cross paths with military ones...it was bound to happen and they are first responsible for this, they certainly knew prorussians had BUK system(the whole Internet knew actually), drunk russian rebels just fired rocket on what they thought was a military aircraft
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:47
  #186 (permalink)  
 
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@ SLFplatine (post # 186)

The version of that transcript I've seen posted contained several additional lines at the end:


“Greek”: Are there documents?

“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.

Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.

They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?

[Cossack commander] Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on.

SBU intercepts phone conversations of separatists admitting downing a civilian plane (FULL TRANSCRIPT; VIDEO)


[Though in hindsight I question if they could have seen enough of the plane intact to know that it was "written Malaysia Airlines on the plane".

The reference to "They say on TV it's an AN-26 transport plane" also seems a bit suspicious. And would Russian separatists have referred to the location as "Ukraine's territory?" Perhaps that is why it was not included in the transcript version posted by SLFplatine.]

Last edited by Passenger 389; 17th Jul 2014 at 23:09. Reason: added URL and caveat
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:49
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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It is premature to conclude that this plane was hit by a missle.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:49
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US NOTAM prohibit since April 2014

Here is the link for the US FAA prohibiting flights into Ukraine FIR since April 23rd 2014.

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ifim/us_restrictions/media/2014_0214_04-29_FINAL_FDC_NOTAM4-7667_UKRAINE_SFAR.pdf
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:51
  #189 (permalink)  
 
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System Usage

A missile system of this type would require training. Fairly extensive training, more than reading a manual. The Crew of the aircraft would not have a clue so the recorders will be useless. Only the actual wreckage will provide any information. This is from my personal experience with missile systems.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:53
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So is it possible to just use the SA-11 TELAR or do they also possess the Snow Drift search radar which is an entirely separate vehicle?

Is it possible to just point the launchers Fire Dome radar at a contrail and launch a missile?
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:53
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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slide photos

Malaysia plane crash in Ukraine | Reuters.com

Note slide # 13 and interesting hole . . .
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:55
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No. You need to have a valid track on the target then get a lock. The missile does the rest.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 22:59
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It is premature to conclude that this plane was hit by a missle.
New York Times reporting that missile was detected by military satellite: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/wo...=top-news&_r=0

A Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 with 295 people aboard was shot down on Thursday by a surface-to-air missile, American officials have confirmed. The plane was traveling at about 30,000 feet, according to tracking information from a military spy satellite. The satellite was unable to detect where exactly the missile was fired.

Military and intelligence analysts are using mathematical formulas, high-speed computers and other sensors to try to pin down the missile’s point of origin. Other analysts will work with the Ukrainian authorities to recover and analyze pieces of the missile and the aircraft to help determine what kind of missile was fired, the officials said.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:01
  #194 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ifim/us_restrictions/media/2014_0214_04-

Not sure about this restriction in respect to geography - this means, that all US airlines were not allowed to fly over the area also above FL260 while all other airlines were only restricted below FL260 but ok higher up until today?
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:02
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Flight plan details MAS17/17JUL

MAS 17 flight plan details:
Take-off 1031 EET 680 minutes ETA 2151
SUVOX 1047 FL253 , MOBSA 1053 FL310 , POVEL 1104 SUI 1120 BAREP 1125 KELOD 1126 OBOLA 1128 CZE 1130 BADUP 1134 MASIV 1136 INDIG 1136 UTOLU 1141 SUBAX FL325 1142 DERAM FL330 1142 LDZ 1144 SOMOX 1158 TOLPA 1203 OKROT 1221 CH 1228 SLV 1233 BEMBI 1235 EDIMI 1244 PEKIT 1254 TAGAN 1308 GANRA 1312 TAMAK 1324...
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:08
  #196 (permalink)  

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The infrared satellite data that showed the missile launch and the explosion that caused the 777 to crash, will also be able to pinpoint the actual launch site.

Why that data is not being released is anyone's guess, but I guess President Obama has his reasons.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:11
  #197 (permalink)  
 
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Missiles of this type have what is called (at least by the US) a continuous rod warhead. This type of warhead is basically several layers of hardened steel rods wrapped in a special configuration. When the explosive charge goes off just imagine a giant buzz saw blade (multiples) flying through the air in close proximity to the target. When the rods expand to maximum diamater they break apart and turn into individual buzz saws. End result the target is shredded.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:18
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Originally Posted by NG1:8567589
If black boxes are handed over to the Russians in theory (!!!) they should send them to Kiev, as the crash site is clearly within Ukrainian boundaries. In a (most possibly) political case like this I guess a close cooperation of Russian and Ukrainian officials would result in the most trustworthy report, but I'm afraid that's (very) naive thinking...
The only common-sense recipient of the FDR and CVR should, in this instance, be Boeing, the manufacturer.
After the debacle of the Malaysian loss earlier this year MH themselves cannot be trusted to disseminate the truth.
The Russians and Ukrainians (both sides) have axes to grind.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:20
  #199 (permalink)  
 
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'The aircraft was deliberately brought down' likely true - that's how Semi Active Radar SAMs work. I strongly suspect that the SAM operators thought it was a Ukranian military aircraft however. So the sentence 'The Malaysian airliner was deliberately brought down' is likely untrue.
As you suggest Capetonian, I expect there was very little reasoning done here. Shoot first, ask questions later.There are likely to be a lot more questions than they would have wished for this time however, and the SAM operators won't be the ones asking them.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 23:25
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Is it lacking in common sense for commercial flights to venture into a hot war zone with active SAMs, recent taking downs. One can only imagine what announcement the captain/airline prepared for passengers if they observe an Antonov being taken down on the port side? Surely planning this contingency would ring some alarm bells. Loss of pressurization at FL330 -> descend into war zone.
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