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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 10th Mar 2014, 13:51
  #1341 (permalink)  
 
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"Not so, I believe. I believe they were checked in but it wasn't confirmed the bags were loaded. They could have been connecting passengers from another flight booked through and boarding passes issued, but they never made it to the gate. Various possibilities, including late arrival of their inbound connecting flight, would preclude them from boarding and also preclude their bags from being loaded. "


According to The Minister AND the MH Official at an earlier Press Conference, the bags from the missing passengers were on board but were located and offloaded before departure. I'm not suggesting that this is necessarily significant, just another item to check, especially if the passengers never claimed their checked bags after departure. We don't know.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:02
  #1342 (permalink)  
 
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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Now SKY news are shocking at the best of times but Capt J Alexandra your five mins of fame was a joke!! I am the flight safety officer for a big airline here in SEA and we are helping MAS in any way we can everything you said made you look stupid!!
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:03
  #1343 (permalink)  
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It easy, I assure you. You can remove no shows and depart on time. We do it all the time. I don't think there is any conspiracy there.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:04
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Path assumption

Assuming cruising at 488 kts, and the first part of the flight path being DCT PIBOS R208 IKUKO M076F290 R208 IGARI M765 BITOD, it's possible to string together the following:

Leaves KL, makes it to IGARI, makes the turn from R208 onto M765. That would be consistent with the bearing of 26 degrees seen on Flightaware (Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware) to IKUKO, a slight left to 17 degrees then a right turn *of* 40 degrees to 59 degrees when moving from R208 onto M765. Assume an 'event' happens at this point, the a/c is at FL350. Looking at previous threads on this forum, 100nm seems feasible for a 777 to glide (http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/10205...-can-done.html). BITOD to VCS is 173.5nm, and the debris is past that by probably 80+ miles, so what could happen?

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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:05
  #1345 (permalink)  
 
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Searching the Strait of Malacca

Disappointing that no journalist at the latest news conference probed for an answer as to why they were searching a huge chunk of the Strait of Malacca west of Malaysia unless they had pretty firm evidence (military primary radar ?) to suggest the 777's turn-back had continued (without any other trace) for 300+ miles from the last known position en route ?

If everyone is publicly saying it disappeared at or near the IGARI waypoint they'd need a very strong suspicion or other evidence to divert the SAR effort so far away surely ?

[ Xeque I see you posted the same query while I was typing :-) ]

Last edited by Golf-Mike-Mike; 10th Mar 2014 at 14:08. Reason: update
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:10
  #1346 (permalink)  
 
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As a long time lurker i hope it is not too ghoulish to make my first post concerning what appears to be an awful tragedy.

However, having just watched the latest news conference I am mystified as to why they seem to have so many search areas in the Malacca Straits. It would seem more logical to extend the current search areas to the west and east of the bottom of Vietnam.

Is it normal practice to cover all bases or does this suggest they know something they have not announced ?

For tbe aircraft to have got to the Straits it would have to have flown over land - surely it would have been picked up on radar ? If it had turned around would it have not flown back on a reciprocal course as the pilot woukd figure there would be more chance of being found ?
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:12
  #1347 (permalink)  
 
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No they cannot have been Africans, not the Italian one anyway, as he is white skinned and Malaysian airlines said the passengers who boarded checked out for the photos. May not have been a good match but likely to spot an African travelling on a Caucasian passport....
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:13
  #1348 (permalink)  
 
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"If everyone is publicly saying it disappeared at or near the IGARI waypoint they'd need a very strong suspicion or other evidence to divert the SAR effort so far away surely?"

Agreed, I posted the same thing earlier. Also, if the aircraft was back on a Westerly track, why are they not searching the dry land on Peninsular Malaysia (I don't think the aircraft would have detoured round Singapore?!!). There is a strong suggestion here that they have a lot more information than that being announced. Which would be normal.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:21
  #1349 (permalink)  
 
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There is a lack of clarity on the type of surveillance data on which the last observations were made.

At the limits of coverage range, typical monopulse radar returns will continue to give good range information but with increasing bearing uncertainty. This can lead to false indication of a turn manoeuvre. ADS-B on the other hand may give increasingly intermittent coverage as the limits of the receiver range are reached, but all data decoded will be good. Error correction ensures a very low probability of path-loss data corruption.

It is important to know which type of surveillance source gave indication of a turn in those final returns.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:23
  #1350 (permalink)  
 
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"No they cannot have been Africans, not the Italian one anyway, as he is white skinned and Malaysian airlines said the passengers who boarded checked out for the photos. May not have been a good match but likely to spot an African travelling on a Caucasian passport.... "


There are Africans with Italian Passports and older non-Biometric Passports can be doctored, including a change of photograph. And in fairness KUL is quite good at this stuff. My wife and I recently transited KUL connecting to an MH A380 flight to LHR. We both have British Passports and, whilst I am obviously Caucasian, my wife is of Asian descent. Despite the fact we were travelling together in First Class, my wife was stopped at security for about 10 minutes because, although her face matched her picture in the Passport, she did not "Look British" (Whatever that means these days). I did pose that question but always go along with all security procedures without complaint. I thought that was very impressive security
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:29
  #1351 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by philipat
"How could they have located and removed the luggage from five no-shows already in the hold, and still leave within six minutes of scheduled departure time? "


Especially on the late flights, they are typically closing the doors 10-15 minutes ahead of scheduled departure. Either they find and offload the bags OR the passengers turn up. Whichever comes first generally. And after the longhaul heavy traffic is already gone, taxi time is very short, so its entirely possible

But five is a large number and, whilst there may be nothing at all to it, is does warrant examination. And I'm sure they have done so. Just not given out any information.
They were probably transit pax. If they didn't make the flight it's unlikely that the bags made it to the aircraft. If the bags did make it to the aircraft they would have been last on and likely loose in the bulk rather than in a can, very easy to locate.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:32
  #1352 (permalink)  
 
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" ACARS is not mandatory equipment. Aircraft can dispatch under the MEL with inop ACARS."

Do many carriers despatch with u/s ACARS ? Especially from hub? Mh said nothing about u/s ACARS so unless no problem alerts got lost in translation to no reports due to u/s ACARS.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:34
  #1353 (permalink)  
 
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"They were probably transit pax. If they didn't make the flight it's unlikely that the bags made it to the aircraft. If the bags did make it to the aircraft they would have been last on and likely loose in the bulk rather than in a can, very easy to locate"

How many times?? It was CONFIRMED BY THE MINISTER AND AN MH OFFICIAL that the bags were already loaded but were located and offloaded before the aircraft departed. Connex times at KUL, as at SIN, are very short. I have had 25 minute connections from Bali to London and had to get on the train out to the Satellite and Both I my bags made the connection.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:44
  #1354 (permalink)  
 
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Apart from being up-current as others have noted, the latest reported debris location (SE of Saigon) would be well within the range of the primary radar at Tan Son Nhat and more importantly, it is very close to the largest complex of offshore oil and gas platforms in Vietnam. Lots of people and lots of work boat activity.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:45
  #1355 (permalink)  
 
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A stall does not imply a breakup.
AF447 was in a stall and dropped at 10000fpm in a nose high attitude.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:50
  #1356 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xeque
I just watched the KL news conference.
What I cannot understand is why they are concentrating all their search resources on the Malacca Strait?
How did we get from "P-3s searcing in the straits of Malacca" to "concentrating all their search efforts on the Malacca Strait" ?

I haven't seen the news conference you mention, but every recent article I've read says the search (in addition to being widend in the straits of Malacca) has also been extended further into the South China Sea than before. WHich makes sens when you don't find what you're looking for where you think it's most likely, you move the search into a wider area.

That's not the same as "concentrating all their search efforts on the Malacca Strait". Not even close.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 14:51
  #1357 (permalink)  
 
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Search area screen grab

Here's a screen grab of the search area from the media conference for those who missed it:

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Old 10th Mar 2014, 15:02
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Ocean currents in area

I post 1361 proves credible then sea currents need to be taken into account, considering this report is 3 days after disappearance - earth :: an animated map of global wind and weather
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 15:03
  #1359 (permalink)  
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Promised I wouldn't get involved in speculating - and hopefully this doesn't count.

Regarding the pilot contacting MH370.

Why would Vietnam ATC request relay contact of an aircraft on Emergency frequency asking 'if they had transferred into Vietnamese airspace'? Unless of perhaps the A/C was overdue at that time. In which case I cant imagine it was MH370 responding.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 15:12
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has the possibility of a drone hitting the aircraft been explored? That may explain the exuburance of so many international navies being involved

As the passport angle is being investigating more, it should also be noted that many countries in SE Asia still don't have the new style passports with embedded chip. It's realitively easy for people to get passports in this neck of the woods, as I have seen from various "helpers" leaving one country to go home and then coming back under a new passport with different name and birth dates..
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