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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:29
  #1241 (permalink)  
 
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According to China.org.cn, 19 families have signed a joint statement saying that their family members' cell phones connected, but the calls hung up. The relatives have asked Malaysia Airlines to reveal any information they might be hiding, seeking an explanation for the eerie phone connections. The relatives have complained that the Malaysina Airlines is not responding as actively as it should.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:30
  #1242 (permalink)  
 
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The possibility that the transponder was switched off deliberately has been raised. The only reason for doing this would be to conceal where the aircraft is going next.

Either the flight crew or others who overpowered them are the only two agents who could do this.

The commander of the flight has been widely reported to have a "flight simulator" at his home.

Might be interesting to see what scenarios he has been running recently...
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:36
  #1243 (permalink)  
 
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Anti Skid On, the page numbering slips a bit as posts are deleted.

To correct for the record,

Hamster3null wrote:
In case of AF447, even though the location of supposed incident was poorly known, pieces of wreckage were spotted from the air during the second day, before any ships even had a chance to get to the site, and first bodies were being pulled out of the ocean in 5 days.

In case of TWA 800, a large piece of the wing was found in the ocean the day after the incident.

Finding no trace of the aircraft at 60+ hours after it goes missing, in a densely populated region, is quite unusual and the media is justified in making it an issue.
No wreckage that proved to be from AF447 was found on the second day.

The center tank explosion on TW800 was witnessed by many.
Image below is a reconstruction of the sightlines of various witnesses. See image at:

http://twa800.com/images/witnesses-sightlines.jpg

SAR knew exactly where to look immediately.

Last edited by SaturnV; 10th Mar 2014 at 09:52.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:37
  #1244 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by amos2 View Post
So, let's apply Ochams razor... "the simplest theory is usually correct".
1. An inflight loss of control/structual failure.
2. A deliberate vertical descent into the ground/ocean.
1. But why were all of the electrical items 'off' at the same time? Radios, ACARS, SSR, ADS B squitter. I cannot believe that there is a single point of failure on the electrical system, nor that these devices don't have redundancy in the form of battery back up built in.
2. Why?

I would suggest a Pan Am 103 situation but the curious bit is lack of wreckage so far.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:42
  #1245 (permalink)  
 
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I presume standard ICAO SARPHASE procedures where followed?
Precisely. The uncertainty phase commenced soon after Subang was unable to make contact with the aircraft. After all communication attempts failed, the alert phase was issued at 2:40, pretty much an hour after the start of uncertainty phase, and I'm sure all relevant authorities started preparing for a SAR mission. Full scale distress phase was probably declared at/around ETA BJS.

The same timescales happened with AF447, SAR was only launched after the aircraft failed to make contact anywhere beyond its remaining endurance. An overwater SAR mission is a very costly exercise, and diverts scarce resources which potentially might be needed for another emergency. Such resources are not sent off on wild goose chases until at least the basic facts are gathered and analyzed.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:48
  #1246 (permalink)  
 
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Primary search radar

100 miles is low, in my experience going back to the 70's the detection range for our search radar was in excess of 200 miles. Of course modern civil radars are quite different and may not be designed to have a very long range capability.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:49
  #1247 (permalink)  
 
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For What Its Worth

In Taiwan, the head of national intelligence said a telephone call had been received on March 1 suggesting that an extremist Muslim group from China’s ethnic Uighur minority would mount a terrorist attack on Beijing International Airport – but added he did not believe the call was linked to the vanished airliner.

Police told local media the caller had rung from the southern Chinese city of Guangdong. He had spoken first in French, claiming to be an anti-terrorism official from that country, and then switched to the southern Chinese dialect of Cantonese. But Tsai De-sheng, the head of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, told state media he did not believe the warning was “highly correlated” with the vanished airliner.

Similarly, a Chinese Internet activist and journalist based in New York said he had received an email claiming the plane had been attacked in protests at Chinese “oppression and persecution” of its Uighur minority. The email, sent from an untraceable hushmail account, said the attack was also a personal act of revenge against the Malaysian government, which has “cruelly persecuted me before.”

Wen Yunchao said he had given the email to U.S. authorities, but had received an avalanche of attacks by email and Twitter for releasing it to the media.

In February, Human Rights Watch criticized Malaysia for repatriating to China six Uighur refugees seeking asylum there, saying it had put the men’s lives in danger; Malaysia also sent back 11 Uighurs in 2011.

Earlier this month, knife-wielding assailants killed 29 people at a railway station in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming, in one of the worst terrorist attacks in the country’s history. The Chinese government said the perpetrators were separatist Uighurs from the western province of Xinjiang.

Nevertheless, to move from knife attacks to international terrorism and downing airliners would be a massive leap for Uighur extremists, who are not thought to have strong links to the global jihadist movement.
Debris may be from missing Malaysia Airlines flight - The Washington Post
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:50
  #1248 (permalink)  
 
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Starting to look this way. Could the Malay Govt be covering up the fact that they took this plane out, because it was a security threat (hijacked, full of fuel, heading for KL)??
You can almost rule this out for the following points:

1) Having an interdiction of this kind is a very messy event. There will be repeated comms challenges, fighters being scrambled, fighters challenging the flight crew (even if no reply), firing warning shots, and then finally shoot down.

2) All these will be done in air traffic radio frequencies and emerg freq such as 243mhz and 121.5. There will be a lot of aircraft that will hear these calls.

3) The determination of that it is a rogue aircraft, scramble aircraft for intercept, attempt to force down and finally shoot down will take a long track. It should also be very visible. Trust me, no one would want to shoot down a commercial airliner unless absolutely necessary and that would mean that it is reaching a no-penatration line.

4) Finally, a shoot down is really messy. And there is no silver bullet. Despite what you think about modern air to air missiles, they are not that fantastic. Where do you want the impact point, left or right engine, fuselage, etc. You are very limited in controlling that, unless you use guns.

I think I'd better stop with these details. I would like to kill speculations on this part because if this kind of scenario gets to the families, it'll just hurt them more.

PS: To add a point. If it is really this scenario, the govt would now be showcasing the reasons for the take down and not cover it up. Post 9/11 era, the logical explanation would be to minimise collateral damage on the ground, etc and painting themselves as possible victims whose hands were forced by the ones who commandeered the aircraft.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 09:52
  #1249 (permalink)  
 
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Vietnam airspace had just been upgraded to latest ADS-B ATC monitoring. Flight data is downlinked twice every second. Where is the data at time of disappearance?
If I recall correctly (back about 50 pages) the last data packet reported 0 speed and 0 altitude which were obviously impossible but there must be an explanation.

I suspect the ADS-B transmitter had enough time to send just one packet after the sensors for speed and altitude stopped sending data to the ADS-B box which tends to indicate the sensors did not fail from the exact same cause as the ADS-B box.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:05
  #1250 (permalink)  
 
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Big bits of wreckage sink and small bits of wreckage spread over large areas. There's nothing sinister in not finding any bits yet.

Look at AF447, it took two years, but the wreckage was eventually found and the events (if not an explanation for the causes) was found. The experience of searching for that will surely help here, and a good part of the South China Sea is relatively shallow.

The "door" seen floating in pictures yesterday looked nothing like a 777 door. It didn't have a slot "window", it had a square "window".
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:09
  #1251 (permalink)  
 
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Heck that's a strong possibility.

I wrote the South China Morning Post article.

Its seems from the eye witness report that the plane was heading back to K.L, and if that's the case they are looking in the wrong place for the wreckage.

Surely if the plane was shot down, by Vietnamese or the Malaysian's - both btw have trigger happy MIG fighter pilots, they would come clean.

If the plane was hijacked and they knew it - and was heading back to K.L. someone could have made the decision to shoot it down. It then would have been, a Malaysian Air Force decision backed by the government.

Surely though the government would not have made that decision without contacting a Chinese Premier (else it would be an international incident, and could spark war).

There are over 6000 news sources for the same information. No-one knows very much, but someone knows exactly what happened to this flight.

There is of course another possibility that I hinted at.

It is possible to get below ground radar, and turn off your transponder, and fly VFR. If that was the case the plane could be anywhere now, especially if this had been planned and refuelling stops have been made.

Already if this is Al-Qaeda its the most daring hijacking since 911 but not following the same pattern.

Or is it? Even when the first plane hit the WTC the only reason we knew it was a hijacking was:
1/ we saw it
2/ people made mobile phone calls from the plane

In this case they would have been out of mobile coverage, no one would have been awake, it was dark, so no-one could see what was happening.

It made no sense to ditch the plane. It did/does make sense to fly the plane to an undisclosed location, and make an announcement to the world, release x,y,z or pay us x billion for the plane and the passengers.

As every day goes on with no concrete evidence that a plane ditched, there is a stronger possibility that it didn't ditch, or there is a conspiracy i.e. someone is not telling us the truth.

There are in this region earthquake a network of thousands of monitors under the sea catching the slightest movement. I wonder if anyone has checked that data.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:11
  #1252 (permalink)  
 
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awblain Sorry but that is wrong. It didn't take 2 years to find the wreckage - bits were found within a few days ( including 50 bodies). What you meant to say that the data recorders took 2 years to be found - a very different thing.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:12
  #1253 (permalink)  
 
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From the current BBC story:

Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.
Maybe that's why no-one's found anything?
Cmdr Marks has been inadequately briefed.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:14
  #1254 (permalink)  
 
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As each day goes on it becomes more bizarre, where the hell is it? It is not a Cessna for God sake, and on Australian TV tonight we had the head of the American Aviation Accident Bureau, saying it was either a stall, or a bomb. Stall? What a high speed stall, surely this aircraft is not capable of a high speed stall? Is this aircraft capable of getting into coffin corner?
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:15
  #1255 (permalink)  
 
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So we have the following factors:

1) Transponder ceased working.
2) Aircraft turned.
3) Garbled radio message with another aircraft.
4) Possible fisherman sighting flying low.
5) Possible businessman sighting flying low.
6) USA P3 Orions searching Malacca Straight.

So something very traumatic was happening in the cockpit, but not enough to stop the plane flying at that time. Obviously at some stage it did stop but the potential search area is immense.

The traumatic cockpit even could be:
1) Cockpit fire or other major mechanical/electronic event.
2) Terrorism.
3) Crew suicide attempt.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:19
  #1256 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Unixman View Post
awblain Sorry but that is wrong. It didn't take 2 years to find the wreckage - bits were found within a few days ( including 50 bodies). What you meant to say that the data recorders took 2 years to be found - a very different thing.
awblain is quite correct.

Some bodies and some floating debris were recovered about 5 days after AF447 went down.

The wreckage (i.e. the fuselage on the sea bed) wasn't located until almost two years after the event.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:20
  #1257 (permalink)  
 
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Someone mentioned in an earlier post that maybe it came down on land, in Malaysia. There are mountainous (2000m) and heavily forested areas running north to south right across the peninsula, these areas are sparsely populated in the north near Kota Baru. If it came down somewhere there it will take some finding.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:30
  #1258 (permalink)  
 
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SAR

Two items of interest, as local sunset approaches in approx 45 minutes:

- HQ Search and Rescue Aviation Administration reports Hong Kong authorities have notified a "large area of debris" reported by an HK aircraft at approx 60km SE of Vung Tao, some 500 km away from IGARI i.e. the last known position of MH370.

[This is a new area but lies fairly close to planned route of MH370. I looked briefly at the area and it seems there is a stretch of fairly rural coast east of the big Vung Tao city. This may explain why no reports until now, though the report also says there are many fishing boats in the area].

Local authorities have been summoned to take a look.

- Vietnam has moved two modern CASA 212 maritime search aircraft , 8981 and 8982, from the Hai Phong area to the Tan Son Nhat airport of Ho Chi Minh City. These aircraft should have better search capabilities than the AN-26 aircraft used so far for large area searching.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:31
  #1259 (permalink)  
 
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1) Transponder ceased working.
2) Aircraft turned.

6) USA P3 Orions searching Malacca Straight.
Makes you wonder if the public are being kept out of the loop.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 10:34
  #1260 (permalink)  
 
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This a/c has 'lost contact', but what exactly was its last contact?


Was it just a radio call, position report or something similar, or was it actually being seen on radar, and then seen to no longer be on radar?


If the latter, and still not found, things are indeed unusual.


If the former, it may have flown for many miles, thus searchers looking in the wrong place- may not even be in the sea.
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