Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[jugofpropwash]

So its likely that the various ATS providers had good position data - but entirely dependant on the aircrafts transponder/s. Without that no data at all. There could of course be military radars providing PSR coverage of this area - but that has not been disclosed as yet.

So, if the transponder was inop or disabled, then civilian radar would have been unable to track the aircraft? And we don't know if there was any military coverage?

I'm more and more convinced that they're looking in the wrong place.

[mm43]

They were quick to release the passenger list - where's the cargo manifest?

One Chinese national had their name redacted from the pax manifest. The cargo manifest is made up in "good faith" and therein lies a potential problem.

[ChicoG]

What's this businessman doing @ 1.45 in the morning?

Well, Red October, why not read the article and find out?

Alif said he was in the compound of his home when he saw the bright white light, which he described as similar to the ones used by airplanes during night flights.
"I was walking towards my back door when I caught a glimpse of the white light.

Never been up at 01:45 in the morning to get a drink or take a pee? What's the point of your question? You think he made it up?

[lateott]

The article linked on the previous page might suggest they are looking in the wrong place.

I have an annotated map of the search area but can't post the image, but if this was a true sighting they need to search right off the coast of Bachok, Malaysia (near Kota Baru). Though it is hard to believe the Malaysian search parties would close their eyes for the first 50 miles of feet wet on the way to search their designated area...

KELANTAN: A businessman in Ketereh claimed that he saw a bright white light, believed to be of an aircraft, descending at high speed towards the South China Sea about 1.45am on the day flight MH370 went missing.
Alif Fathi Abdul Hadi, 29, told the New Straits Times what he saw after lodging a report with the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) in Tok Bali earlier today.
Alif said he was in the compound of his home when he saw the bright white light, which he described as similar to the ones used by airplanes during night flights.
"I was walking towards my back door when I caught a glimpse of the white light.
"It was moving towards the sea, towards Bachok area, which was unusual.


From New Straits Times Latest - New Straits Times

[Clear_Prop]

I did initially promise myself I wasn't going to get involved in this discussion, but I must admit I too am becoming quite perplexed by the lack of any wreckage in the expected area. There was one small fact that I observed at the start and quickly disregarded as meaningless, but as this situation is dragging out, I am beginning to suspect it may be more of a clue.

It is to do with the Transponder, or more to the point what we know has been received from it by the FR24 data. Or more to the point what hasnt been received. The very last report in the FR24 data chain lacks any altitude data. For it to have been processed, a recognisable message must have been received by the servers, otherwise the message before would be the last data we would see. What strikes me as noteworthy about this is that the most obvious sequence of events I can think of where this data output would be recorded, would occur when the transponder was deliberately cycled from Mode C (S) through Mode A (no alt) on the way to STBY (Off).

I might go one step further and suggest I am struggling to imagine any other set of events where this pattern of signal output would be observed.

Your thoughts?

[Ida down]

A Question for Malaysian LAMES, or someone in the know. When did this aircraft last have a D or Phase Check?

[tartare]

Clear prop, if I have understood you correctly you are suggesting that the lack of data seems to indicate the transponder may have been deliberately switched off?

[hamster3null]

The very last report in the FR24 data chain lacks any altitude data. For it to have been processed, a recognisable message must have been received by the servers, otherwise the message before would be the last data we would see. What strikes me as noteworthy about this is that the most obvious sequence of events I can think of where this data output would be recorded, would occur when the transponder was deliberately cycled from Mode C (S) through Mode A (no alt) on the way to STBY (Off).

As I understand, FR24 saves one report per minute, even if reports come in more often than that.

Assuming that your premise is correct (this is the first time I hear about this), what are the odds that the last report saved by FR24 just happens to be the one when the transponder was passing through mode A?

[VH-Cheer Up]

One Chinese national had their name redacted from the pax manifest.

I noticed that. What's the reason? Who edited it? MAS? Or...

[dk88]

As I understand, FR24 saves one report per minute, even if reports come in more often than that.

Assuming that your premise is correct (this is the first time I hear about this), what are the odds that the last report saved by FR24 just happens to be the one when the transponder was passing through mode A?

How long does it take to switch from Mode C to Mode A and to STBY?

[snowfalcon2]

Update - Vietnam SAR

Very briefly:

- Square orange object, buoy suspected, spotted by DHC6 at 1020 local time (UTC+7 i.e. 0320Z), position N074730 E1025712. Investigating.

- The suspected "window liner" object spotted yesterday evening (widely reported as a suspected "door" in international media) has not been found again by 1130 local time.

- Search area possibly to be extended to South China Sea by afternoon.

Search continues, no confirmed debris so far.

source Dan Tri via Google Translate

[red_october]

I'm starting to agree with Clear Prop. Either it was deliberately switched off, or there was a serious electrical malfunction / fire in the business end.

[toffeez]

Seismic event

We are told that when SR111 hit the water "seismographic recorders in Halifax and in Moncton recorded a seismic event".

Does anyone have the expertise to confirm that, and to say whether the same could be expected of any large aircraft hitting the ocean (intact I presume)?

[Bobman84]

I'm starting to agree with Clear Prop. Either it was deliberately switched off, or there was a serious electrical malfunction / fire in the business end.

A fire in the cockpit (which cut communication) is not implausible and the second last hull-loss involved a cockpit fire of the 777 (albeit zero fatalities).

That might explain why it's difficult to find as well.

[Nikai]

Search for debris - delay makes sense

Sailing through the search region several years ago showed a lot of fishing activity, but in addition to this there was significant floating debris, floating islands of rubbish and discarded junk. Whilst it may seem strange to some that a definite debris field hasn't been found, in the context of the area, it makes sense that they are being careful to verify any possible sightings. Plus, bearing in mind that much of the fishing in the area is small operators, with varied nationalities, operating to their own rules (rather than large companies), it really could be some time before feedback comes from these sources. Hoping that further news comes soon for the loved ones of those on board.

[Passagiata]

We are told that when SR111 hit the water "seismographic recorders in Halifax and in Moncton recorded a seismic event".

Does anyone have the expertise to confirm that, and to say whether the same could be expected of any large aircraft hitting the ocean (intact I presume)?

Don't know the answer there, but I do know there have been many more tsunami warning seismographic recorders installed since the 2004 tsunami, all over the SE Asian region ...

[yssy.ymel]

@clearprop

Yes tartare, thats exactly what I am suggesting.

The more this goes on, my thinking about this incident is leaning much further towards this. I was only speaking with a colleague about this today - total silence from the incident aircraft with no obvious signs of debris with 40 odd aircraft searching and enough boats in the water to walk from West Malaysia to Vietnam is suspicious

Not to mention no radar being able to track it past the time the squawk was lost? Hmmm.. There is more to this than meets the eye I think.

Time will tell.

[thcrozier]

And to think I've been wasting my time here

That's Okay. A lot of us find it intellectually stimulating, even if we have learned nothing more than the topography of the seafloor and that seismic studies in the area use towed-array detectors 8,000 meters behind the boat...

[hamster3null]

So, with 50,000kg on board, you could fly for about 7 hours (and reserves) and go about 2000nm.

This mental exercise seems fairly pointless to me. If you want to hide from the radar, you only need to stay low when you're near ATCs. Presumptive hijackers could stay at 600' for 300nm and that would put them on the other side of Malay peninsula, at which point they could regain altitude and they'd have several million square miles of the Indian Ocean at their disposal. (But they probably wouldn't make it to any "really interesting" places like Afghanistan or Somalia, not without refueling.)

[hamster3null]

I appreciate there are fine differences in the scenarios of disappearance, but do the media seem to be making more of the issue of a/c or debris not yet being located yet than in previous similar incidents?

I'm pretty sure in time gone by there have been aircraft lost at sea that have taken a little while to find (it was about five days for AF447?); and it just strikes me that the mainstream news outlets are more than ever - even by their standards - making an issue that 2.5 days in there's still no sign; like it's completely unprecedented and totally incomprehensible.

Is it me, or maybe there's a Moore's Law of media flabbergast?

In case of AF447, even though the location of supposed incident was poorly known, pieces of wreckage were spotted from the air during the second day, before any ships even had a chance to get to the site, and first bodies were being pulled out of the ocean in 5 days.

In case of TWA 800, a large piece of the wing was found in the ocean the day after the incident.

Finding no trace of the aircraft at 60+ hours after it goes missing, in a densely populated region, is quite unusual and the media is justified in making it an issue.