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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 17th Mar 2014, 08:55
  #4981 (permalink)  
 
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I think aircrafts like the 777 get more than only 45-60 mins reserve fuel for a 6 hour flight.. Logically they would obtain at least haft the trip back if not the whole trip back as reserve (thus 3hrs fuel reserve if not more).
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 08:55
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I would like to make a valid point and I would appreciate all those who believe whole heartedly and without any doubt the pings are the be all and end all to this search that they not hyperventilate.

Its interesting to me that the arc from the satellite has been deleted in the area where the aircraft lost contact. I have gathered the reason for this is two fold:

1. Theaircraft was detected on primary radar in that region
2. The next satellite over did not receive a ping so the assumption is made that the aircraft could not have been in range of that satellite.

The point I would like to make and not withstanding the ping id message because it is my belief nobody has seen an example of that message to see what information is contained within a typical ping message. Inmarsat have said that there is no message other than a handshake although their equipment measures the time it took for the ping to be returned to determine the approx distance from the transmitter give or take 300 to 500 miles.

Now take a deep breath D.S, If.... The unit sending that ping message was on the ground in Kuala Lumpur it is then conceivable that :

1. The second satellite would most probably be on the horizon since it was apparently at the edge of its range in that area and at sea level may not have line of sight with the unit sending the ping.

2. It was my understanding that civvie radar had not tracked the target primary paint over the malay peninsula. I understand military radar had but there was a collective agreement that it was most probably mh370. What does that mean? Because they couldnt explain what the paint was then they have used confirmation bias and decided it must be mh370? So if the aircraft returning that ping was on the ground there would not be a primary paint.

3. Should that arc have been removed?

The point I'm making is it is entirely possible that this ping is from other Malaysian airlines aircraft at Kuala Lumpur where the arc from the satellite cuts through nearby?

What I would like to know is what exactly was in the ping handshake from both the initiating transmitter (inmarset) and mh370's supposed handshake response.

Before you all fall about with apoplexy or ignore this post all together.
Lets look at the statement from the Malaysian PM, only a few hours before the statement, the lead investigator and the minister of transport denied the satellite ping info as being relevant and just one of many leads. If they were in posession of irrefutable evidence which nobody here has seen and still has not seen then they would have undoubtedly have supported it 100%. Instead we have the PM front up who mentions the FAA, ATSB, AAIB and the deputy minister of transport, why? To put those agencies on the hook if the satellite info is wrong and to take pressure off Malaysia and it worked an absolute treat. The lead investigator and the minister were not mentioned during the statement. Why? Because they obviously had differing views but the PM has rendered this investigation completely political by stepping in.

There is a lot more to this and I am very uncomfortable being told what to think by the uninformed media.

Now, nobody has seen these messages or pings, nobody except those involved in the investigation, is it possible these pings may well be from elsewhere. Until the handshake format in its entirety is made public then my theory cannot be discounted.

For the record I believe this aircraft will be found near its last confirmed position as I stated thousands of posts ago and stopping the search in the South China Sea is a mistake.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 08:56
  #4983 (permalink)  
 
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@robdean - Good post. Thanks for the additional professional insight. I have personally known several people who suicided, and in every case they exhibited regular bouts of depression and discussed how they "felt like ending it all" on numerous occasions to friends or associates.
It's true, there's the occasional personality who is totally secretive and doesn't divulge anything and suicides with no warning - but in the overwhelming majority of suicides, the warnings are there.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 08:59
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Originally Posted by YYZjim
Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
lots of unanswered questions.

Who's going to pay for the monitoring, and storage (and retrieval) of all this data, and who's going to monitor it in case 1 aircraft stops transmitting (for whatever reason), and even if they did detect an anomoly, who are they going to notify?

Even if they had access to 24*7 military numbers for every country, would they scramble jets on the say so of a civilian company who says one of the aircraft it monitors didn't "check in" ?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:00
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I think, with all due respect, Speedbird 33, that you should be over your problems by now!
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:02
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Just maybe the cloak of secrecy is a hint that authorities are still negotiating with hijackers .
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:03
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Hijack of PPRuNe - Confirmed

Exoixx and others. The only thing that's definitely been hijacked is this forum - PPRuNe. The clue's in the title - Professional Pilots Rumour Network - and no longer safe from the keyboard warriors, know-nothings, weirdos and others reiterating what's already been said or with nothing better to do. Shame.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:09
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Flight Path or Last Location Locus?

...explains how investigators figured out the possible flight paths of the missing aircraft.
The 40degree arcs are greatly misunderstood, much of the press seem to think the plane was flying ALONG one of these arcs. As I understand it, these arcs show all the possible positions of the last contact, NOT the route.

Having said that, if you have all the previous transmissions (pings), and the last radar position, then assuming[Big IF] a constant speed and direction, you could come down to a choice of two actual routes AND two choices for the last actual position.

Anyone got the full list timestamps and latitude?

(All providing of course they are not constantly 40degrees, in which case, it is flying round the arc, and we have no final fix)
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:11
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Engineer Pilot..I fly the 777 and I can assure you that we do not carry 3 hours reserve under any normal operations. 45 to 60 minutes reserve, as reported, sounds about reasonable to me.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:13
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@xgjunkie
"The point I'm making is it is entirely possible that this ping is from other Malaysian airlines aircraft at Kuala Lumpur where the arc from the satellite cuts through nearby?"

Surely any pings detected from other a/c would have been followed by handshake and data exchange? So can be eliminated as being from MH370?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:16
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For those who do not believe the ping accuracy or the accurate interpretation of the pings - the new evidence from investigators that the B777 flew as low as 5000' in a radar-avoiding move, is now verified by the eyewitness evidence of the 4 men in Kelantan - who all gave solemn evidence that they sighted "a large aircraft flying low", early on the morning of the 8th March.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:18
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Seat 32FSurely any pings detected from other a/c would have been followed by handshake and data exchange? So can be eliminated as being from MH370?.
My understanding is that if engine parameters dont change then no data other than a handshake occurs. That handshake essentially has no data.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:18
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Well put together onetrack, there are a few things starting to come together.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:21
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Thanks Ana. Even I can understand your clear illustrations and follow your clear explanation. You remind me of someone from AF447 days - she had similar expertise and we all benefitted from her insights.

How "narrow" would these lines of arc be? I understand could be very narrow as for GPS. But would communication satellites have that degree of accuracy with respect to timing?

If latest reports of low level flight are true, I guess this shortens the length if arcs somewhat. Has these been verified, or just rumor?


This was not an impulsive decision. Someone knew a lot about flying a T7, but a whole lot more as well. No way this was the response of someone who had a bad day.

If very low level flight is true, this further suggests pax out of equation by then. Anyone here think he/she wouldn't call when crossing land at low level?


Depressurisation and hypoxia still likely method. Eliminating all interference was crucial. How else could this be done. People don't come back after a sufficient period of hypoxia - anaesthetic data is clear on this point. Not at FL400 or close to. These people were not acclimatised like Everest climbers - even they wouldn't survive 40,000 (and plenty of them don't survive 30,000). 1 pilot on the deck have more oxygen than anyone else.

Few other questions
1. Engineer. Do we know if on duty or off duty? Could he have selected flight as pax, or was he assigned on duty.
2. Chinese satellite photos still puzzle me. Very embarrassing for them. They have the resources for higher res photos. Seems strange they did not given the delay of several days. Very strange they got caught out like that.

Last edited by slats11; 17th Mar 2014 at 09:40. Reason: Typo
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:21
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@xgjunkie: as I understand it, MH370 signal was just ping, not ping/handshake

Last edited by Seat 32F; 17th Mar 2014 at 09:23. Reason: typo
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:23
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OnetrackFor those who do not believe the ping accuracy or the accurate interpretation of the pings - the new evidence from investigators that the B777 flew as low as 5000' in a radar-avoiding move, is now verified by the eyewitness evidence of the 4 men in Kelantan - who all gave solemn evidence that they sighted "a large aircraft flying low", early on the morning of the 8th March.
Well the kiwi on the oil rig made a statement too about a fireball.

But Sultan Ismail Petra airport is in Kelantin, any chance of a passenger jet on approach?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:31
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why would the United States intelligence community (whoever that may be in this matter) make a point of calling up CNN and informing them all of a sudden that they were focusing on the flight crew?




why would they want CNN to tell the world that?


maybe because its true, but, since when is mass communication of whats going on the concern of the intelligence community?


I don't get it.


were they prodding the Malaysians? maybe, maybe not. but I really doubt they did it to tell us what they are thinking. since when does an intelligence agency want the world to know what its thinking?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:34
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Here are two of the eyewitness reports of the low-flying aircraft, as I understand -

A fisherman Azid Ibrahim who was in his boat at sea, says that at about 1.30am he saw the lights of a low-flying aircraft in the area of (Jalan) Kuala Besar.
He told The Star newspaper in Malaysia that the plane was flying so low, that the lights were “as big as coconuts”.

Another man, is reported to have seen “bright white lights” from his home about 30km south of Kota Bharu, describing what he thought was a fast-descending aircraft, at about 1.45am on Saturday morning.
But Sultan Ismail Petra airport is in Kelantin, any chance of a passenger jet on approach?
@xgjunkie - Yes, it's extremely likely, seeing as they appear to be reporting an aircraft with landing lights on.
However, I'm sure some quick checking on actual aircraft movements into SIP very early on the 8th would soon eliminate any doubts, or confirm what they saw.

I'm fully of the opinion now, that the fireball sighted by the oil rig worker, and the "extremely loud noise" heard by the 8 men near Marang beach, was by pure coincidence, a meteorite explosion.
I have never actually heard a meteorite explode, but it's certainly not a rare event.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:39
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@p.j.m.

Who's going to pay for the monitoring, and storage (and retrieval) of all this data, and who's going to monitor it in case 1 aircraft stops transmitting (for whatever reason), and even if they did detect an anomoly, who are they going to notify?
The Spidertracks product linked above looks like it costs $1000 - $2000 per aircraft for hardware. And appx $1.60 per hour operating cost. It is a small standalone product that would provide a tamper proof method of continuous flight tracking.

Seems like a smart and minimal cost idea - especially now that we know you can apparently easily disappear a 777 ...

I suspect something similar will be required on all commercial aircraft in a very short time - even if as a backup system.

Smart airlines should be stepping all over each other to see who can announce and install these quickest - as a safety and PAX security tool.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 09:41
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xgjunkie
"The point I'm making is it is entirely possible that this ping is from other Malaysian airlines aircraft at Kuala Lumpur where the arc from the satellite cuts through nearby?"
While I lack specific knowledge of the system in question it is very likely that the system functions in a similar way as any modern network.

For example devices that are hooked up to the internet have a unique number assigned to them called a "MAC address". No other device on the entire network has the same address. This way information can be routed though the network to an individual end user. IP addresses are similar except they function at a different OSI layer.

Same goes for 11 digit postal codes for your street address (USA). No one else has the same address in the entire country.

I'm almost certain that the plane would have a unique identifying code of some kind.

OSI model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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