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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:34
  #2261 (permalink)  
 
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QUESTION:
If I understand the timeline, the plane's last comm was leaving one freq for another. Given my experience with IFR flying, if I wanted to disappear with max time until someone noticed, that is when I would do it. Given the odds of random plane malfunctions right at that second, this seems to argue very strongly for human intervention by someone familiar with flying.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:45
  #2262 (permalink)  
 
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You are mistaken, Martin. The CO of that DDG is the local anti air warfare commander. He's got the better Aegis system than we had on our cruiser (20+ years ago) but the role is the same. When you are the local Air Defense commander, every single air contact is tracked and of interest until you are certain that it is on a opening course and speed relative to the battle group you are protecting. IF this contact was being tracked (not sure if the ship was in a position to do so the evening it went missing) then its track would have been identified and tracked by the guys on the scopes in Tracker Alley in Combat Information Center. I've stood enough watches in CIC in an AAW command ship to know how this works. (Yes, it's been a few years!)
Thanks for the clarification. Always welcome to get a better understanding. :-)
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:45
  #2263 (permalink)  
 
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Ok, I'll jump in.. I don't normally speculate (I'm a heavy Captain for a US airline with a lot of overwater experience in an ac like the 777), but I will add this, with CPDLC, HF, VHF, ACARS and SATCOM, I'll find some way to get a message out under duress.. especially CPDLC, for it's a couple of key strokes.. would take me.. 5 seconds, tops.

- Chances of complete loss of comm on the 777, very, very slim...

- Bomb explosion we would have found the pieces long ago...

- I don't like structural failure theory cause it would have led to disintegration of airplane and then aircraft pieces would have already been found...

my theories fall into these two areas:

1. Hi-jack (terrorism from outside or crew)
2. Hypoxia event leading to incapacitation of all life on board.. (has happened in the past)
I can see why you are arguing against either a complete systems failure or a bomb. I realise no-one has the answers, least of all me, I just have more questions. However...

If 1. Hi-jack is correct then why no distress communication from the pilot or indeed anyone at all on board during the take-over phase of the hi-jacking? If it was a hi-jack we have to believe it was sudden, total and prevented all communications capabilities of all passengers and crew. Even if part of the crew were responsible, would not the remainder of the crew or passengers have become aware at some stage that something was amiss and had time to send out a distress call of some kind before they could be stopped?

If 2. Hypoxia is correct then why did all means of communication manual or automated cease so abruptly? That seems to indicate either deliberate intervention by an experienced crew member or an immediate catastrophic event causing all comms on the aircraft to fail simultaneously at the last known point of communication. But then how come it either continued to fly, or else just as in your bomb scenario, why has no wreckage been found by 5 days of SAR?

It seems to me that we are left with one indicator of a catastrophic event at the last known civilian reference point (sudden cessation of all communication) but other indicators of continued flight (military primary radar possibly tracking to west, no explosion "flash" picked up on military satellites (as I understand it) and lack of debris in area that has been searched for 5 days now).
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:46
  #2264 (permalink)  
 
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Is there any oversight to assure that such investigations are carried out in compliance with ICAO Annex 13 standards?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:50
  #2265 (permalink)  
 
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Here is a link to a Youtube clip of the Malaysian Military Commander discussing the returns received from Military Radar filmed at the latest press conference






I get the feeling that the aircraft was not actually viewed via primary radar turning back near IGARI, but unknown returns found when reviewing radar data at a later date suggested that the plane had turned back.

He also mentions that they only have intermittent radar returns at present, hopefully the FAA and NTSB can shed some light on the data, it was stated that radar data would be released if either the NTSB or FAA could confirm that the contacts were MH370.

Last apparent position was 200nm NW of Butterworth FL295

Last edited by rachcollins; 12th Mar 2014 at 15:37.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:51
  #2266 (permalink)  
 
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Re Helios 522, this aircraft

- kept climbing despite the cabin pressure warning going off, and there was radio communication to the effect that not all was well > no communication of this sort here, apparently

- was intercepted when contact couldn't be established > didn't happen here (and I'm still asking myself why)

- had a history of pressurisation problems > doesn't seem to be the case here.

I think this comparison can be laid to bed.

What did the Thais see on their (military) radar? If it took up a western course after initial contact was lost it would have at least skirted their border with Malaysia or even entered Thai airspace. And the "200 NM NW of Penang" seems very close to Phuket in Thailand.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:56
  #2267 (permalink)  
 
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If I understand the timeline, the plane's last comm was leaving one freq for another. Given my experience with IFR flying, if I wanted to disappear with max time until someone noticed, that is when I would do it. Given the odds of random plane malfunctions right at that second, this seems to argue very strongly for human intervention by someone familiar with flying.
I'm not sure they were simply leaving one frequency for another - I thought they were going out of range of the Malaysian ATC and would not be in range of Vietnamese ATC for some time.

Granted that makes it an even better window for any bad guys, but that possibility is not set against the unlikelihood of a "random malfunction [...] right at that second". There's a longer window for problems to arise.

(But I freely admit to having rather lost track of what are the established "facts" in the timeline, between the various versions and corrections in official announcements, confusion over time zones, and the amount of recycling of rumour and supposition as fact that has been going on here from time to time... )
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 14:58
  #2268 (permalink)  
 
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Why no transmission from 200+ mobile phones?
Making a cell phone call in a jet flying over 8000 ft is virtually impossible.

1) Doppler induced loss-of-service (no bars) occurs at relative speeds (aircraft to cell tower) of 150 kts (nautical miles per hour) and greater.

2) Cell antenna radiation pattern makes voice call almost impossible above 2000 ft and data exchange impossible above 8000 ft.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:01
  #2269 (permalink)  

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@repariit
Is there any oversight to assure that such investigations are carried out in compliance with ICAO Annex 13 standards?
What investigation? Apparently under Malaysian law, there is no official accident investigation, since there is no evidence that the aircraft has crashed on Malaysian territory / territorial waters. Hence no lead agency. Hence no powers to obtain information.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:02
  #2270 (permalink)  
 
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https://translate.google.de/translat...t.html&act=url
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:04
  #2271 (permalink)  
 
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Heavy Captain

spmd11:

I don't normally speculate (I'm a heavy Captain for a US airline with a lot of overwater experience in an ac like the 777), but I will add this, with CPDLC, HF, VHF, ACARS and SATCOM, I'll find some way to get a message out under duress.. especially CPDLC, for it's a couple of key strokes.. would take me.. 5 seconds, tops
my theories fall into these two areas:
1. Hi-jack (terrorism from outside or crew)
2. Hypoxia event leading to incapacitation of all life on board.. (has happened in the past)



Could you please elaborate on Hypoxia (or for that matter aircraft air supply suddenly contaminated with some kind of life ending substance). I believe this is the only angle that has not been debated to death on this forum.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:19
  #2272 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Razoray View Post
ok, so the question is, are the m#pp&Ts covering something up, or just covering their own ass?
Perhaps they are in over their heads, in terms of the amount of experience they have in handling such an event. I find the vitriol directed at the folks dealing with public information release to be misdirected.

They are confronting a novel situation with the Information Age Jackals hounding them at every step. I think those gents are learning "on the job" what it takes to handle public information releases. The number of ways one can screw that up is legion! (Plenty of American politicians fall into that trap, "You're doing a helluva job, Brownie!" coming to mind in re Katrina).

If you look back a few dozen pages, a trained American PR official from US Seventh Fleet spouted a load of tripe about floating DFDRs and CVRs. It's not just that the Commander ought to know better. FFS, he's from an "open society" and was formally trained in how to do this ... and he still stuck his size nine and a half dress white shoe into his own mouth.

The gents from Malaysia are from a different culture, and IMO are doing the best that they can. It doesn't help that the amount of info they have isn't:

(a) helping the SAR effort produce a result
(b) making the Information Age Jackals happy

I sincerely believe that they want to find that airplane so badly that they can taste it. These guys are human beings, imperfect like all of us, with hearts.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:21
  #2273 (permalink)  
 
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@ EdmundSpencer
Not sure quite what route the MH was flying but, usually, after departing KIA you are handed over to Singapore before being handed over to Saigon. If you are not CPDLC contact there is a requirement to make contact with Singapore radio on VHF followed by HF 8942. You then make contact with Saigon as directed.
Thank you - that is most illuminating!

Out of curiosity - why VHF with Singapore initially? Naively, I would have expected you to be out of VHF range with Singapore as it's further south than KL and you're heading north-east.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:32
  #2274 (permalink)  
DWS
 
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RE SPORKY AND OTHERS ( # 2206)

...Watching the news conference, it is blatantly clear the Malaysians are in disarray ...


AS I recall many years ago someone said "
Its almost impossible to resolve the difference between incompetence and mendacity in a news conference absent other clues "
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:35
  #2275 (permalink)  
 
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survival scenario

If we assume a hijacking and further assume those hijackers are not suicidal - perhaps having a mercenary rather than a political motive - where and how could they get the plane down in a deserted spot at which they could retain control over the situation: making a safe landing without a runway, albeit with with the aircraft a write-off? Shallows off some deserted island where a 'recovery' team is waiting? Or are there natural hard surfaces within that considerable range (similar to salt-flats) where such a landing could be made in relative safety?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:38
  #2276 (permalink)  
 
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Will it ever be found ?

Given that no evidence has been found in the search areas we should consider the possibilities. Given that we have no real idea where the aircraft is, the potential location is limited only by available fuel and thus covers millions of square miles and we are looking for a very tiny needle in a very big haystack.

1) A crash into the ocean. The amount and nature of any surface debris will depend largly on the speed and angle of entry. Any floating debris will probably be small inconspicuous items such as seat cushions. These could easily have been missed by the existing search. If the crash was outside of the search area and on a busy shipping lane something may be spotted within weeks or months, away from shipping lanes something may wash up on shore eventually due to currents but may well be disregarded as junk. The seas are littered with flotsam and garbage so one bit of junk looks much like another.

2) A crash onto land. Any crash onto a reasonably populated area would have been reported by now but much of Southest Asia consists of forest and jungle. Any debris would be concealed by tree cover. Populations are mainly local tribes with little of no communications with the outside world.
Reports of a crash may filter out eventually but by then much of the evidence will have been recycled as free building material. Our best hope might be a painstaking examination of hi-res satellite images for evidence of recent fires.

From this we can conclude that without better evidence it is unlikely that the aircraft will be found soon. Eventually a fishermans nets may be fouled or someone may clear the right bit of forest but that could take many years.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:53
  #2277 (permalink)  
 
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FWIW I tend to agree with the unofficial consensus that has arisen after five days of consideration by some very experienced contributors. In terms only of "likelihood" (meaning the actual scenario could indeed turn out to be something generally considered to be very unlikely) I suggest the following:
  • Interference (of which a "device" of some sort being onboard is more likely than physical interference, though it could be either).
  • Upset (originating from one of several scenarios, including severe turbulence for example) and unsuccessful recovery.
  • Intentional action of (one of) the flight crew
It is far less likely (for example), but not out of the realm of possibility, that a technical issue lead to a catastrophic failure and loss of the aircraft. Personally, I don't think so.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:53
  #2278 (permalink)  
 
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Populations are mainly local tribes with little of no communications with the outside world.
I've traveled by motorbike all over Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, and this characterization simply doesn't hold true.

Even in the smallest villages, there is electrification of one kind or another, and someone always has a dish and a TV, often communally shared. While Laos and Cambodia are probably the least connected, I stayed at only one or two villages, high in the mountains that didn't have communications of some sort.

True, there is plenty of open space and rain forest. But, there are also many. many tiny villages interspersed throughout the rain forest such that it is difficult to imagine that an aircraft crashing at night would not have been seen by someone.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:54
  #2279 (permalink)  
 
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INTEL101,


DrudgeReport yesterday had posted the same federal register rulemaking notice that you did. It pertains to changes going into effect in 2014 and beyond, and would not have affected the MH370 airplane. It is worthy of a discussion, although separate from the MH 370 incident.

Last edited by Feathered; 13th Mar 2014 at 21:43.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 15:57
  #2280 (permalink)  
 
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WSSS FIR

Because WSSS FIR is right between WMKK & VVTS?

SWLD - Shortwave Listeners Delight - Civil Aviation HF Flightwatch Frequencies Asia_
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