WWW and 170to5 - are you all seriously suggesting that the economy is screwed and the long term outlook for the aviation industry is decline???
Where are you guys getting this from??? It is crackers.
Clearly none of you are economists. How many major countries' or regions' economies contracted last year? one (Spain). The IMF forecast none will contract this year - with global net growth of 4.2%.
Equity analysts, plane manufactorers and ICAO predit somewhere between 4-6% annual growth in the airline industry over the next 20 years. Even if not much growth comes from developed markets do you guys not see what is happening in Emerging markets?
OK, you don't have to believe the forecasts, but what about the airline industry historically? Passenger numbers have doubled every 15 years since 1970. Even in the last decade RPK (revenue passenger Kms) is up c15%.
Yes, oil prices are (one of the few) dark clouds on the horizon but consumers are getting used to inflationary pressures and besides, on average, fuel makes up 30% of an airlines cost. It's not exactly armageddon.
I just don't get where all this bearish mentaility from the forum comes from??? Aviation, like many other industries is cyclical - bad times follow good, good follows bad.
However Long term is good - please, chin up and be more positive!