KAG:
You fail to mention the fact that the majority of the certificates that are no longer active are Privates... Which makes sense since GA in the States peaked in the 70's and has been going downhill since then.
However, there's other numbers that you don't seem to account for.
Example: between 1999 and 2008 the number of active ATP certificates in the US rose by 9,196. What about that? I'm not making it up, it's all in the civil airmen stats section of the FAA website.
Look, I wouldn't recommend flight training to anyone either, but let's not hang ourselves just yet.