Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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JugglingSpence - good luck with your pursuit.
I started a couple of months ago (and need eye surgery before I can go too far) but I share your outlook for the future. If everything goes to plan it will take me 3/4 years too at which there might be more jobs!
I started a couple of months ago (and need eye surgery before I can go too far) but I share your outlook for the future. If everything goes to plan it will take me 3/4 years too at which there might be more jobs!
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I think you'll find that it was the government who held down the interest rates and kept the rules slack on the lending rules that fueled the house price bubble.
Why?
The feelgood factor delivered 3 consecutive Labour election victories.
Do you REALLY think politicians get into politics in order to help people and deliver the country to prosperity?
There is a global business cycle and all politicians know this. There are two strategies. In the first you reign in public finances during the expansionary phase so that you are in good shape for the deflationary phase (now) and can increase public spending on infrastructure to help support the economy.
In the second you let public finances rip during the expansionary phase so that the economy enjoys amazingly strong growth but accept that when tax receipts fall in a deflationary phase (now) you will have to cut public spending which further weakens the struggling economy.
Can you see which strategy Mr James Gordon Brown chose?
Do you think that was wise?
Prepare to pay the price for 3 socialist governments; winter of discontent and a depression.
Why?
The feelgood factor delivered 3 consecutive Labour election victories.
Do you REALLY think politicians get into politics in order to help people and deliver the country to prosperity?
There is a global business cycle and all politicians know this. There are two strategies. In the first you reign in public finances during the expansionary phase so that you are in good shape for the deflationary phase (now) and can increase public spending on infrastructure to help support the economy.
In the second you let public finances rip during the expansionary phase so that the economy enjoys amazingly strong growth but accept that when tax receipts fall in a deflationary phase (now) you will have to cut public spending which further weakens the struggling economy.
Can you see which strategy Mr James Gordon Brown chose?
Do you think that was wise?
Prepare to pay the price for 3 socialist governments; winter of discontent and a depression.
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Lurker, are you not old enough to remember Mrs Thatcher and her governing of the boom and bust of the late eighties and early nineties, i would suggest to you that governments of all colours seem inept when things go bad.
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Yeah I remember that. You might have thought that the Labour party, having made much criticism at the time, might have learned the lessons for when it was their turn, no?
Plus the 1989 recession and White Wednesday (ERM fallout) set the scene for a glorious economic recovery for a country transformed from the strike ridden mess it was in the 1980's. I can forgive the ERM fiasco and recession in exchange for the employment law changes and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right. Labour have transformed nothing nor laid the foundations for anything but they have still given us a Boom and Bust bigger by a factor than anything seen before.
Just announced on BBC News TV.
New car registrations down 18.6% this Aug compared with last Aug.
Worst figures since 1966!
Do you think that all those people and businesses that REALLY HAVE decided to reign in spending on cars might just do the same for air travel? Or is that armchair economizing just too simplistic and naive of me? Surely it is SO SO SO simple to see the mother of all recessions coming?
Plus the 1989 recession and White Wednesday (ERM fallout) set the scene for a glorious economic recovery for a country transformed from the strike ridden mess it was in the 1980's. I can forgive the ERM fiasco and recession in exchange for the employment law changes and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right. Labour have transformed nothing nor laid the foundations for anything but they have still given us a Boom and Bust bigger by a factor than anything seen before.
Just announced on BBC News TV.
New car registrations down 18.6% this Aug compared with last Aug.
Worst figures since 1966!
Do you think that all those people and businesses that REALLY HAVE decided to reign in spending on cars might just do the same for air travel? Or is that armchair economizing just too simplistic and naive of me? Surely it is SO SO SO simple to see the mother of all recessions coming?
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and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right
However, the media has not noticed, the the unions disagree with everyone on principle anyway!
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Conerted Lurker my friend I agree with what you say however the assertion that during the economic downturn they'll cut services is not how the Labour mob see it. Size of government grows regardless of the outside weather only the tax receipts fall/rise. I wish we had a government that would utter the tabboo phrase of "public spending cuts" especially during this downturn. However it's not so much the government or any single politicial party that worries me as the public whom are the classic example of sheep along with convientently short memories. If things improve sooner rather than later then Labour will be parading around telling everyone how it was them that 'saved us'. The significant proportion of the public will believe them in order to swing back to the labour side.
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Sorry Re-Heat, I should have read your profile. Would you agree with the three basic premises of my post that (1) oversimplifications of the economic situation can be misleading and often lead to incorrect conclusions, (2) anyone can see a trend, predicting the turn is the tricky bit and (3) news stories and corporate and government announcements can also be (deliberately or accidentally) misleading?
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Decisions Desicions
Yes I think Alex is right - the purest science is hindsight as they say
Often the Media / Opposition parties eggagerate - makes good press and political capital
In the city the clever money buys at the trough - talk it down then
buy at the minimum - easy money
A lot of people will delay some will proceed and be then ahead in the queue later on
Its very much a gamble and you have to make your own judgement - not easy
Often the Media / Opposition parties eggagerate - makes good press and political capital
In the city the clever money buys at the trough - talk it down then
buy at the minimum - easy money
A lot of people will delay some will proceed and be then ahead in the queue later on
Its very much a gamble and you have to make your own judgement - not easy
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I know the analysts are saying that the recovery in the oil price will have x effect on the bottom line and the shares are rising y% due to that news.
But I'm with WWW on this one, the big issue facing the industry is the volume of people who are choosing not to travel, not the oil price.
I'm on the other side of the Irish Sea and with the "Celtic Tiger" times have been good for the Irish economy and many many Irish people took advantage of the weak dollar and headed to New York for 3 to 4 days to do their Christmas shopping.
I have no doubt now though that with the downturn in the Irish economy the loads on these pre Christmas flights will be very much lower out of Dublin now as the same shoppers who went transatlantic for Christmas shopping in the past just can't quite justify the same this year and choose not to travel.
How could you when those Irish bank shares you bought are now down 60% in the year, you're house has fallen in value by 10%, mortgage interest rates are up, your petrol for your car is up, your company is going to miss profit targets so your bonus will be well down on last year, or maybe you won't get a bonus, or worse still you work in construction and you've been laid off.
The airlines will face maybe twice the dollar cost for fuel this year for the same transatlantic flight as last year but how much of that total cost of running an airline is the fuel bill? Which would have more effect on the bottom line, losing 50% of your passengers in a year, or doubling your fuel bill?
What happens when as we're seeing at the moment, you have a combination of both to a greater or lesser extent.
Whilst oil prices are falling back somewhat now they are still over $100 a barrel. And the major issue facing the industry, namely the fact that confidence is down and fewer pax are travelling, hasn't gone away either.
Scary times ahead for the industry over the medium term. Cut your cloth accordingly.
But I'm with WWW on this one, the big issue facing the industry is the volume of people who are choosing not to travel, not the oil price.
I'm on the other side of the Irish Sea and with the "Celtic Tiger" times have been good for the Irish economy and many many Irish people took advantage of the weak dollar and headed to New York for 3 to 4 days to do their Christmas shopping.
I have no doubt now though that with the downturn in the Irish economy the loads on these pre Christmas flights will be very much lower out of Dublin now as the same shoppers who went transatlantic for Christmas shopping in the past just can't quite justify the same this year and choose not to travel.
How could you when those Irish bank shares you bought are now down 60% in the year, you're house has fallen in value by 10%, mortgage interest rates are up, your petrol for your car is up, your company is going to miss profit targets so your bonus will be well down on last year, or maybe you won't get a bonus, or worse still you work in construction and you've been laid off.
The airlines will face maybe twice the dollar cost for fuel this year for the same transatlantic flight as last year but how much of that total cost of running an airline is the fuel bill? Which would have more effect on the bottom line, losing 50% of your passengers in a year, or doubling your fuel bill?
What happens when as we're seeing at the moment, you have a combination of both to a greater or lesser extent.
Whilst oil prices are falling back somewhat now they are still over $100 a barrel. And the major issue facing the industry, namely the fact that confidence is down and fewer pax are travelling, hasn't gone away either.
Scary times ahead for the industry over the medium term. Cut your cloth accordingly.
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Yes, but you're projecting, and all the evidence is in exactly the opposite direction of your projection. People are not 'choosing not to travel', in fact loads on Ryanair and Easyjet are 20% up on last year, a huge rise in passenger numbers. Where do you get 'fewer pax are travelling' from?
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As I said, I'm on the other side of the Irish sea, and the Irish economy is pretty spectacularly derailing at the moment, our unemployment number is at the highest level (6.1%) in a long time, construction jobs which account for a disproportionate share of the Irish economy relative to most industrial nations has experienced a 15% loss of employment in a year, and car sales have fallen off the edge of a cliff. Government tax receipts are now €6bn under budget, the welfare bill is heading North and the Government have brought forward the Budget by three months to try and, depending on your point of view, bully the social partners into a pay pause, or inject some realism into national pay discussions.
So maybe the pax numbers i'm seeing are just reflecting circumstances which are particular to the Irish market, where loads ARE down, but I very much doubt it.
Granted, the Irish circumstances may be more acute than those the UK are experiencing but I wouldn't take too much comfort from the Ryanair August number.
I heard a radio headline that Ryanair numbers were up 19% alright but I didn't hear what the yields were and I don't know the Easyjet numbers but the Ryanair load factor was also down and how much of this is new capacity that didn't exist last year?
BA, who wouldn't be adding routes or airframes at the rate that Ryanair are said August traffic was down 1.6% in August and the load factor was also down 2.7% to 77%.
Last time I watched Sky news Alistair Darling was saying that the UK economic situation wasn't exactly rosy, and the markets have been giving the pound sterling a reasonably significant write down vis a vis the Euro and more notably the dollar, based on the fact that they concur with the Chancellors assessment.
I think that the winter will prove me right when I say pax are choosing not to travel. I would guess that a lot of August volume is people on annual or semi annual holidays and would have been booked well in advance. I would say that forward bookings aren't running at 20% year on year volume growth and I would say that they are showing a decline although I don't know this.
It is my opinion that over the course of the winter there will have to be significant capacity taken out of the market because there will be fewer passengers who want to travel.
I'm more interested in what the November 08 and January 09 numbers are going to be like compared to the corresponding period 12 months ago. As I said already, forward bookings may take some time to "wash out."
So maybe the pax numbers i'm seeing are just reflecting circumstances which are particular to the Irish market, where loads ARE down, but I very much doubt it.
Granted, the Irish circumstances may be more acute than those the UK are experiencing but I wouldn't take too much comfort from the Ryanair August number.
I heard a radio headline that Ryanair numbers were up 19% alright but I didn't hear what the yields were and I don't know the Easyjet numbers but the Ryanair load factor was also down and how much of this is new capacity that didn't exist last year?
BA, who wouldn't be adding routes or airframes at the rate that Ryanair are said August traffic was down 1.6% in August and the load factor was also down 2.7% to 77%.
Last time I watched Sky news Alistair Darling was saying that the UK economic situation wasn't exactly rosy, and the markets have been giving the pound sterling a reasonably significant write down vis a vis the Euro and more notably the dollar, based on the fact that they concur with the Chancellors assessment.
I think that the winter will prove me right when I say pax are choosing not to travel. I would guess that a lot of August volume is people on annual or semi annual holidays and would have been booked well in advance. I would say that forward bookings aren't running at 20% year on year volume growth and I would say that they are showing a decline although I don't know this.
It is my opinion that over the course of the winter there will have to be significant capacity taken out of the market because there will be fewer passengers who want to travel.
I'm more interested in what the November 08 and January 09 numbers are going to be like compared to the corresponding period 12 months ago. As I said already, forward bookings may take some time to "wash out."
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Hey folks
Easyjet and Ryanairs passenger numbers are rising. At the airport I work at, EZY has 8 flights a day, and on weekends they have 9 flights. Each flight comes in with a 90% load factor at least. However this is due to the fact that EZY, when the fuel crisis kicked in, decided that they would chase load factors in order to keep their shares up. EZY have lots of cash in their pocket so they can afford to be less profitable for a year or two, in the interest of keeping high load factors on their flights. Other airlines decided to add fuel surcharges and their load factors have gone down. Same goes for Ryanair, they decided to cover the losses in other ways (grounding a/c, no bonuses for management.... etc..)
To get back on the topic, I dont understand why people are freaking out about this. Speaking to some older friends, who were doing their CPL's during the early/mid 1990's, they were telling me how difficult it was to find a job then. Then there were literally half the airlines there are today, and options for finding a job were SEVERLY limited in many parts of Europe. Now the only problem is the investment. However, I believe there is an upturn and there has been for years now. Two low cost airlines in Europe need about 400 pilots each in 2009 to cover their expansion plans... I dont think that has happened before... You have more bizzjet and pvtjet jobs available than ever before, and now many airlines in Europe give jet jobs to youngsters with 250hrs! That was a dream come true before 2000. Chin up people. Follow your dream and be flexible...
SVoa
Easyjet and Ryanairs passenger numbers are rising. At the airport I work at, EZY has 8 flights a day, and on weekends they have 9 flights. Each flight comes in with a 90% load factor at least. However this is due to the fact that EZY, when the fuel crisis kicked in, decided that they would chase load factors in order to keep their shares up. EZY have lots of cash in their pocket so they can afford to be less profitable for a year or two, in the interest of keeping high load factors on their flights. Other airlines decided to add fuel surcharges and their load factors have gone down. Same goes for Ryanair, they decided to cover the losses in other ways (grounding a/c, no bonuses for management.... etc..)
To get back on the topic, I dont understand why people are freaking out about this. Speaking to some older friends, who were doing their CPL's during the early/mid 1990's, they were telling me how difficult it was to find a job then. Then there were literally half the airlines there are today, and options for finding a job were SEVERLY limited in many parts of Europe. Now the only problem is the investment. However, I believe there is an upturn and there has been for years now. Two low cost airlines in Europe need about 400 pilots each in 2009 to cover their expansion plans... I dont think that has happened before... You have more bizzjet and pvtjet jobs available than ever before, and now many airlines in Europe give jet jobs to youngsters with 250hrs! That was a dream come true before 2000. Chin up people. Follow your dream and be flexible...
SVoa
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Very few airlines will be paying double for fuel this Christmas season. Some may have hedged and locked themselves into futures contracts at higher prices. It just may turnout that O'Leary's gamble to not hedge will help Ryanair a bit this winter, though he undoubtedly bled a lot of cash this summer. At least he had it to bleed.
I still took my holiday and everyone I know took theirs too this summer. I even paid a bit more to go on BA, as Ryanair's ridiculous baggage limits (15kg max in the hold) were totally unsuitable for the amount of kit needed for a longish holiday.
Double fuel prices and only a 2.7% drop in yield says it all; the European summer holiday is sacrosanct. I suspect the winter sun or ski breaks will be too.
I still took my holiday and everyone I know took theirs too this summer. I even paid a bit more to go on BA, as Ryanair's ridiculous baggage limits (15kg max in the hold) were totally unsuitable for the amount of kit needed for a longish holiday.
Double fuel prices and only a 2.7% drop in yield says it all; the European summer holiday is sacrosanct. I suspect the winter sun or ski breaks will be too.
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What drugs are you on exactly? 
EZY shares have crashed by more than half so the strategy you believe they have clearly isn't good. RYR the same and both top bosses saying there is a disaster afoot!
There may be double the airlines now but there are three times the wannabes and all we care about it getting a job against the competition for that job. You think the only problem is investment (reckless debt accretion) rather than actual jobs? Are you licking the windows mad? The jobs have all dried up, nobody is hiring and 26 airlines have gone bust so far and Autumn isn't even here yet!
Which 2 loco airlines need 400 pilots for next year or is that just the acid kicking in? Biz-jets are rapidly falling on their arse as anyone in NetJets will tell you. v Who are you? Are you a flying instructor or school owner?
As Vin Diesel points out unemployment in Ireland is above 6% and in Spain it is above 10% and in both it is rising quickly, just like in the USA. The same will happen here and once that happens the worst house price crash ever will actually accelerate.
This time last year the media and politicians told you that half of what already has happened wouldn't. They are now crapping themselves about the half that is going to happen that you don't even know about yet.
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Easyjets shares would have gone down three times as fast if it wasnt for their load factors. You think the EZY are stupid in wanting to keep their prices down to fill their aircraft? You think they dont want to make money??? People are still flying!!! Some airlines are just lowering capacity on routes. But the actual number of a/c flying is actually more! The demand for flying is still there and will be because traveling is second nature now, as it wasnt 15 years ago.
Personally everyone I know, who has an fATPL, and has been willing to be flexible as to where they live and work, has found a job in no time. The ones who wanted to stay next to their girlfriend and buddies, didnt. And of course, knowing people inside airlines never hurts... Captains will always retire and F/O's will always need to become captains. However I do agree that there are 100 times more wannabees today and that increases competition..
No I am not an instructor of school owner, and last time I checked this forum was for discussion and not irony, so I dont understand where your comments about drugs fit in to this discussion...
SVoa
Personally everyone I know, who has an fATPL, and has been willing to be flexible as to where they live and work, has found a job in no time. The ones who wanted to stay next to their girlfriend and buddies, didnt. And of course, knowing people inside airlines never hurts... Captains will always retire and F/O's will always need to become captains. However I do agree that there are 100 times more wannabees today and that increases competition..
No I am not an instructor of school owner, and last time I checked this forum was for discussion and not irony, so I dont understand where your comments about drugs fit in to this discussion...
SVoa
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Some airlines are just lowering capacity on routes. But the actual number of a/c flying is actually more!
At easyjet over the past few months a base has been announced for closure, STN has lost 3 a/c for the winter, a management cull has taken place at head office, they are offering unpaid leave for the winter and cabin crew on seasonal contracts are expecting to go. Trust me, we won't have more a/c flying this winter, neither will ryanair, neither will BA......
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EZY shares have crashed by more than half so the strategy you believe they have clearly isn't good. RYR the same and both top bosses saying there is a disaster afoot!
I am with SVOA on this one.
Be smart and flexible, have common sense.
I am personally against airlines hiring 250 hour people for big jet jobs simply because when you come out of fast track integrated training, you come out with the illusion that you are a safe pilot. You can not be a safe pilot when you have never been given the chance to challenge yourself and to get to know your own limits.
Ideally I'd say, start with 250 hours, instruct or take a small turboprop (king air) job for 1 year and a half, then small jet job (Citation) for 1 year, then regional jet job (ERJ's/Avro/CRJ), then A320/B737 for a couple of years and finally widebody.
In the U.S. it works like this, and it is working very well.
There's no American version of Pprune where American pilots cry about their miseries simply because many people find smaller corporate jet jobs locally and understand that if they want to get the chance of flying a jet for an airline one day, they need to work hard instructing or doing a little job. The reward is that US airlines pay TR's for the pilots they hire.
Young American pilots earn their ways up.
Europeans pilots are buying their ways up.
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2009 is when the the effects of decreased consumer spending will really be felt. Food prices are up by 9%, gas and electric bills are up by 35% and 9% respectively (this varies between providers).
People may be continuing to spend on air travel at the moment but as i've said before, surveys suggest many currently consider it a neccessity and not a luxury, something that the poster seems to agree with in the above quote. However with average fuel bills set to rise anywhere up to £400 (it's claimed) with further increases predicted in January, once the fuel bills come through in 2009 it will bring home to people how much the cost of living is really going up and continuing to rise. Non genuine necessities will soon become lurxuries once more and demand will fall off just as quickly as it appeared along with any predicted need for pilots.
It's the beancounters job to take advantage and plan ahead for anything positive that the market brings but be assured, the good ones will also have a contingency plan for any down turn, but unlike their plans for expansion, they tend not to be so vocal about their contigencies though as it's bad for buisness. You need to start looking to the medium to long term and not to what's directly ahead.
The demand for flying is still there and will be because traveling is second nature now, as it wasnt 15 years ago.
It's the beancounters job to take advantage and plan ahead for anything positive that the market brings but be assured, the good ones will also have a contingency plan for any down turn, but unlike their plans for expansion, they tend not to be so vocal about their contigencies though as it's bad for buisness. You need to start looking to the medium to long term and not to what's directly ahead.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 5th Sep 2008 at 16:03.
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Ah well, for the moment Easyjet's news is good Easyjet's passenger figures up 24% in August, load factors also increasing
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Fleet size last August??? Judging by such a big increase assuming they fly around full all day every day now at 100% loadfactor that would mean the load factor back in august 07 was at best 75% which seems low for easyjet.
These figures are skewed somehow, you would expect that a larger airline would fly more people...
Although I welcome any good news, this is damn lies and statistics.....
These figures are skewed somehow, you would expect that a larger airline would fly more people...
Although I welcome any good news, this is damn lies and statistics.....