Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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General expectation appears to be prices falling below $100 per barrel by the end of the year. Reports suggest the recent Turkish pipeline shutdown and tropical storm Edoaurd caused little or no change to yesterdays prices which suggests a far cry from the volatile price spikes of last month. Decreasing US and general worldwide demand, coupled with ecenomic slowdown, appears to be pushing prices in the right direction. The situation is still far from healthy but the scaremongering predictions of $200 per barrel by the end of the year appear to have fallen flat.
Ford American now investing money in cheap fuel efficient car design, says it all. Perhaps the US has finally had its wake up call to energy consumption.
Ford American now investing money in cheap fuel efficient car design, says it all. Perhaps the US has finally had its wake up call to energy consumption.
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Everyone needs to wake up and stop dreaming in LA LA land about being in the upturn. We are in a serious downturn at the moment, and there will be no upturn for atleast 1 whole year! 
In the meantime, save your hard earned money and go MODULAR if you havn't yet started training. I wouldnt advise anyone to go integrated.
Oxford Graduates recommended to :
Ryanair
British Airways
Flybe
British Airways no longer recruiting, Ryanair will be minimising recruitment in the near future and Flybe will probably slow down recruitment in a few months time. The winter looks very very bad for job prospects.
Thats the facts, like it, hate it, ignore it. Your choice, your money and your life. Save your hard earned cash, get a PPL and then review the situation once you have the license.
SB
In the meantime, save your hard earned money and go MODULAR if you havn't yet started training. I wouldnt advise anyone to go integrated.
Oxford Graduates recommended to :
Ryanair
British Airways
Flybe
British Airways no longer recruiting, Ryanair will be minimising recruitment in the near future and Flybe will probably slow down recruitment in a few months time. The winter looks very very bad for job prospects.
Thats the facts, like it, hate it, ignore it. Your choice, your money and your life. Save your hard earned cash, get a PPL and then review the situation once you have the license.
SB
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Speed Bird,
I would assume the purpose of this thread is to promote positive news, be it interest rates, oil price, price of fish....., flight training prospects....whatever. The similarly worded, arse about face other thread....is presumably to do the opposite. The declining price of oil is presumably good news...be it for many reasons eg. deisel for my car is now 10 pence per litre cheaper than last month. That for me is good news, I drive just over 2000 miles per month. Nobody is in any argument that the aviation industry is teetering on a knife edge just now. Undertaking flying training would most certainly be a foolish move just now. Todays good news however is that the oil price continues to decline and that expert opinion now appears to suggest sub $100 per barrel by year end. Ecomomies will slowly catch up, perhaps 2 - 3 years is a good ballpark.
I would assume the purpose of this thread is to promote positive news, be it interest rates, oil price, price of fish....., flight training prospects....whatever. The similarly worded, arse about face other thread....is presumably to do the opposite. The declining price of oil is presumably good news...be it for many reasons eg. deisel for my car is now 10 pence per litre cheaper than last month. That for me is good news, I drive just over 2000 miles per month. Nobody is in any argument that the aviation industry is teetering on a knife edge just now. Undertaking flying training would most certainly be a foolish move just now. Todays good news however is that the oil price continues to decline and that expert opinion now appears to suggest sub $100 per barrel by year end. Ecomomies will slowly catch up, perhaps 2 - 3 years is a good ballpark.
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Probably be a good time to start training in about 18 months... then have a reasonable chance of popping out into the green shoots of recovery!
On the downturn thread many people appeared with bullish and positive views and the debate ensued. On the Upturn thread the same thing is happening. Both Upturn and Downturn threads are discussions about the wider economic envirnoment in which commercial aviation lives. You can be a Bull or a Bear on either thread - that's fine.
I'll stop worrying about oil prices once they've spent 6 months below $70 a barrel - until then they are at record prices outside of the design limits of most business models. One test detonation will be all that is required to soar past the recent high..
The oil price is a marginal issue. The real issue is recession and the number of passenger miles declining AT ANY ticket price. This is the real issue. The marginal cost implications of kerosene in wing tanks would be no problem if the economy were booming or just doing well. After all, the average easyJet fare is £46. When Gordon Brown invented £10 Airport Duty Tax out of thin air it had the same effect then that a doubling of oil prices would have had. In that year easyJet profits rose, load factor increased and they added 15 additional aircraft.
Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.
WWW
I'll stop worrying about oil prices once they've spent 6 months below $70 a barrel - until then they are at record prices outside of the design limits of most business models. One test detonation will be all that is required to soar past the recent high..
The oil price is a marginal issue. The real issue is recession and the number of passenger miles declining AT ANY ticket price. This is the real issue. The marginal cost implications of kerosene in wing tanks would be no problem if the economy were booming or just doing well. After all, the average easyJet fare is £46. When Gordon Brown invented £10 Airport Duty Tax out of thin air it had the same effect then that a doubling of oil prices would have had. In that year easyJet profits rose, load factor increased and they added 15 additional aircraft.
Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.
WWW
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I think I would be more worried if the price stayed below $70 per barrel for 6 months. I'd be concerned as to what it would do next!
I think it will be interesting to see who hangs on past the winter. Next year will be very interesting.
oh and oil dropped again today by the looks of it, closing at 117.
I think it will be interesting to see who hangs on past the winter. Next year will be very interesting.
oh and oil dropped again today by the looks of it, closing at 117.
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A falling oil price is indeed welcome, and will doubtless have knock-on effects in many areas, hopefully the cost of food and merely getting to one's job for a reasonable price.
Dunno if this is going to be enough to encourage the average punter to keep on spending his cash on unnecessaries though. And therein lies the rub.
Dunno if this is going to be enough to encourage the average punter to keep on spending his cash on unnecessaries though. And therein lies the rub.
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Probably be a good time to start training in about 18 months... then have a reasonable chance of popping out into the green shoots of recovery!
You'd be graduating in 2012.
Bad news is that I think that the market will be alot different by then.
Ab-initio's with 200 hours applying for A320 and B737 jobs will be history.
So yes, you can definitely wipe BA off the list forever.
The European ab-initio market is shaping itself to ressemble the American one. The actual surplus of ab-initio's will have no choice but to enroll into smaller bizjet and regional operations as legacy airlines redefine their pilot requirements.
Good news is that huge pilot shortages will result in the corporate and regional market as pilots use these markets as bridges to access legacy airline jobs.
Aviation is doing alot better than expected.
Many people who intended to go on summer car trips have decided to fly instead, because it would turn out cheaper with gas prices where they are.
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Oil price - it's August - oil generally drops towards the end of the peak demand season (barring tropical storms).
I'm not going to stop being concerned about the oil price until:
- the oil futures market ends contango and returns to backwardation (Nymex) or
- at least 2 or 3 out of the 5 major oil producing regions of the world increase production (BP statistical review of world energy)
I'm not going to stop being concerned about the oil price until:
- the oil futures market ends contango and returns to backwardation (Nymex) or
- at least 2 or 3 out of the 5 major oil producing regions of the world increase production (BP statistical review of world energy)
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Largely as production is limited by trouble in Nigeria, and nobody wants the heavy crude that Saudi Arabia produces. Increasing light, sweet crude production would help a great deal...and increase our oil dependency...raising demand further.
Good point!
I'm not going to stop being concerned about the oil price until:
- the oil futures market ends contango and returns to backwardation
- the oil futures market ends contango and returns to backwardation
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Ryanair rumours... looking to order 400 aircraft
Rumours are Ryanair are looking at ordering 400 new aircraft.
Ryanair may 'buy up to 400 aircraft' - report - The Irish Times - Wed, Aug 06, 2008
If true, that would create a market of its own.
In my opinion, this may include some longhaul aircraft.
MOL needs to go longhaul if he wants to secure Ryanair's future.
Ryanair is in talks with EADS unit Airbus and Boeing Co. to buy up to 400 aircraft to secure mid-term growth following its recent earnings slump, chief executive Michael O'Leary has told Sueddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.
Planes are “about half as expensive as they were a few years ago”, he said, because of the currently weak US dollar.
Planes are “about half as expensive as they were a few years ago”, he said, because of the currently weak US dollar.
If true, that would create a market of its own.
In my opinion, this may include some longhaul aircraft.
MOL needs to go longhaul if he wants to secure Ryanair's future.
Last edited by nich-av; 8th Aug 2008 at 00:13.
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I noticed that the downturn thread has disappeared from page 1. Could this be evidence that the upturn is upon us?
Nah, probably just means WWW is tightening the belt so much that he canceled his Internet service.
Nah, probably just means WWW is tightening the belt so much that he canceled his Internet service.
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Originally Posted by MIKECR
Todays good news however is that the oil price continues to decline and that expert opinion now appears to suggest sub $100 per barrel by year end.
I wouldn't count on it being below $100/barrel by the end of the year. It's hard enough to predict what it's going to be this time next week, never mind 5 months' time.
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Having been through a few upturns and downturns, I would say now is the time to start your course, preferably integrated, and be top of the heap when the upturn comes.
Stand by for WWW to explode!!
Stand by for WWW to explode!!
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I would say now is the time to start your course, preferably integrated
100% DO NOT go intergrated...
See what this winter holds...that's when airlines traditionally make a loss...some may not be able to sustain the operating costs...things are changing week by week, financially and commercially...
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The oil price is a marginal issue. The real issue is recession and the number of passenger miles declining AT ANY ticket price. This is the real issue. The marginal cost implications of kerosene in wing tanks would be no problem if the economy were booming or just doing well. After all, the average easyJet fare is £46. When Gordon Brown invented £10 Airport Duty Tax out of thin air it had the same effect then that a doubling of oil prices would have had. In that year easyJet profits rose, load factor increased and they added 15 additional aircraft.
Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.
Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.
You should be thanking your lucky stars that oil spiked like it has done, because if it hadnt your doom and gloom predictions would be looking pretty stupid at this point. For example Aer Lingus just posted record passenger numbers for July, for the first time in the airlines 72 year history they passed the 1 million monthly passanger mark. The likes of EZ and Ryanair have also reported record numbers. Without the oil crisis airlines would be doing ok. 'The worst conditions in aviation history' has been mainly caused by a massive increase in operating costs, not by reduced passanger numbers.
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Mark it is arguably as a result of a large number of things... credit crunch, oil price etc etc.
The end result is the same.... the number of airlines that don't have a recruitement ban in place is dwindling rapidly. IF we go into the recession that some people have been flagging since the creidt crunch hit 12 months ago I hate to tell you but your "you were right for the wrong reasons" arguement will sound hollow to those wannabees without a job and £50-100k of debt.
You also seem to be ignoring the comments management teams at airlines are making about the outlook (Ryanair just last week were saying how they expect passenger yields to gap down). It is these management teams that make decisions about recruitment..... ignore WWW and other if you please..... but ignore what the airlines are saying at your peril
The end result is the same.... the number of airlines that don't have a recruitement ban in place is dwindling rapidly. IF we go into the recession that some people have been flagging since the creidt crunch hit 12 months ago I hate to tell you but your "you were right for the wrong reasons" arguement will sound hollow to those wannabees without a job and £50-100k of debt.
You also seem to be ignoring the comments management teams at airlines are making about the outlook (Ryanair just last week were saying how they expect passenger yields to gap down). It is these management teams that make decisions about recruitment..... ignore WWW and other if you please..... but ignore what the airlines are saying at your peril
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I was made redundent during the last downturn. Two weeks later I got a call, "do you want your job back, can you start tomorrow?"
You just never know.
In the Telegraph to day one xpert said oil will be $200 a barrel while in the same paper another said it would be $70. Truth is I dont think anybody knows whats going to happen.
Sometimes you just have to be optimistic and take a chance.
You just never know.
In the Telegraph to day one xpert said oil will be $200 a barrel while in the same paper another said it would be $70. Truth is I dont think anybody knows whats going to happen.
Sometimes you just have to be optimistic and take a chance.