Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

To your ears I sound an utter arrogant tosser? Fine.

The limitations of the medium mean that I have little influence on how people interpret the tone of my postings.

You are obviously upset about the current situation for airlines and wannabes and you are choosing to lash out at me because I accept the role of messenger. That's fine. Whilst I don't enjoy the condemnation my consolation is that (earlier) Wannabes might become better informed by this and other threads.


You ask "What Recession?"




I need make no comment.


WWW

[Lurking123]

A selective quote (after all, this is a public forum and much/most of that which is quoted is selective):

If I cared about a PPRuNe popularity contest I'd be really upset and halfway through my second hankie by the harsh words on this thread. But guess what - I'm a big boy and you can just f%c5 off this forum, stay, pick a fight or be quiet. I really don't care and neither does 99% of the audience.

But I speak the truth. I was right. I am right. I will be right. And at the end of the day I'll still be here ten years from now just as I was here ten years ago. Unlike those that slag me off. The weren't here. They won't be.

Oh and, of course, there is always the option of not clicking, not scrolling and not reading a thread that you find not interesting... you 5uckwit.

The sun still shines chaps.

That sounds like arrogance to me although I would agree that the pen (or at least the keyboard) is often a limiting method of communicating one's personality. What I can say is that Speakers' Corner seems to have been overly hogged by a couple of individuals in the past few weeks, regardless of the accuracy of the message.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rex - had I been posting warnings of recession since 2005 like Roger Bootle then your stopped clock metaphor might have a meaning. Given that I went public with bearish Wannabe warnings in Sept 2007 you are, once again, talking out of your backside. If you contend that the UK/EU recession is in fact just going to be a slowdown then lets just see shall we?


Lurking. Note the fact that I've made something like 3,500 posts on these forums and I tend to be spicy. Having noted this please be aware that I stand by every word. Wannabes need warning. The bull**** spin from Vested Interests needs counterbalancing.

That the message was accurate is consolation enough for me.

WWW

[Re-Heat]

Rex

You are naive in the extreme if you do not think we are facing a recession, particularly in the aviation industry.

Take this - http://iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/4CC9ABE...ion_June08.pdf - the report from IATA, the industry body themself.

The US is flirting with recession, as has been reported in a number of media outlets. Rising unemployment and falling output are the reality. Whether or not it becomes a technical recession or not is semantics - the demand is slowing.

The danger for wannabes is that, depending upon the industry they currently work in, slowdowns may not be obvious for a while. Furthermore, to counter a misconception posted above, high loads on aircraft do not necessarily equate to profitability - hence Ryanair grounding aircraft this coming winter rather than flying them at a loss.

Remember - there are two sides to revenue before you take off the fuel costs - price and volume.

[Grass strip basher]

So what is the positive spin on Ryanair grounding that many flights?? How is this good for aircrew? WWW has got it spot on.... for God sake wake up and smell the coffee.... even Ryanair is cutting back and battening down the hatches... you won't see announcements about them cutting aircrew because moat are on contracts anyway.

P.S. Rex I love the travel agents saying fuel surcharge will not impact demand.... no doubt turkeys will soon be announcing that Christmas is cancelled this year and Sky will let us all know what this indpendent body of birds is saying about the future of Christmas..

[Lafyar Cokov]

Fuel Price 2 Days Ago: Brent Crude Spot: $144.95/barrel

Fuel Price Today: Brent Crude Spot: $129.84 /barrel

Not in any way the 'be all and end all' - or even a massive reduction, but interesting all the same!

[hollingworthp]

I happen to be in agreement with WWW although I feel that some of the impact of his highly factual posts is lost with his overly Zealous approach.

Just for balance I like to post - what are clearly the rare - snippets of positive news.

If I had a young son or daughter asking me for advice right now on whether they should splurge on an integrated course then I would probably advise against this.

I started my training at OAA back in August 07 on the back of the tagged scheme with NetJets and I am confident that I made the right decision for me and my family. I was in the fortunate position of not having to go to HSBC with cap in hand having worked for 12 years in non-related industries. I also feel that NJE are well positioned to capitalise on both upturns and downturns in the market. Currently the ultra-wealthy and corporate customers will be 'downgrading' their own jets into fractional schemes whilst those at the bottom of the wealth scale will resort to first-class with the airlines. In an upturn the reverse occurs.

Being relatively risk averse - if it was not for this particular scheme, I would be thinking very carefully whether I wanted to invest all this cash right now and whether or not a modular approach might be wiser. Saying that - everyone has their own unique set of circumstances and I don't feel it is fair to lump all 'wannabees' together as sponging off the bank of Mum & Dad whilst not looking further than the glossy marketing of any given FTO.

That's my twopeneth

PS:
BBC: Banking rally boosts US markets

US stock markets have rebounded strongly after better-than-expected results from a leading bank and further sharp falls in the price of oil.

The Dow Jones index closed up 2.5% after its strongest daily performance in three months, driven by demand for leading bank stocks.

[spinnaker]

Rex,

The figures that the IMF use are historical, that rate of change is so fast that what they say today, is based upon what happened two or three months ago. My own business plan for the next 18 months has been put in the shredder because of that. I produce FR eggs and my production is based upon another farm supplying the layers. Last week feed shot up by over 10% in one go. For spring 2009 I need 3000 extra hens, at the current rate of inflation, following my original plan, wholesale price would go from £1.50 doz. to over £3.50 doz. In an effort to keep cost down, I need to change tack ticks and breed my own layers. This is not something that can usually be done on a whim, but I have to, to stay in the game. Even then, I have serious doubts that I can keep next years prices below £2.80 doz if I keep breeding successfully for five years, which I need to do, to recover investment in breeding stock. I mention all this because its not always apparent how fast the economic climate is changing, and it is.

www is not a stuck record or a broken clock. Ladies and gentlemen this is serious ****

[hollingworthp]

AIN: Boeing and Airbus continue to defy gloomy predictions

For the third day running, Airbus and Boeing defied pessimistic predictions of softening demand for airliners with new contracts collectively worth almost $6 billion.

Airbus notched up another order for the A350, with South Korea’s Asiana Airlines placing almost $5 billion worth of firm orders for 30 of the new widebody aircraft and optioning 10 more. Deliveries will begin in 2016 and will include all three versions of the A350. The carrier plans to operate the aircraft on regional and long-haul routes. Orders for the new Airbus now total more than 350 units, from 20 customers.

U.S. lessor Aviation Capital Group announced an order for 15 Boeing 737-700s that by the end of the 2013-15 delivery period will take its fleet to 91.

[nich-av]

Bubble bursting?

Oil charts indicate a 10% drop in oil prices over the past 48 hours. The pattern of trade indicates a potential decrease to lower values tomorrow.


Triggers?
-A huge bank casualty
-the biggest American brewer being bought out by a brewer of a tiny little country called Belgium.
-Republican advisors being quoted saying that oil drilling would not make any money until 20 years from now
-News that the U.S. is moving troops from Iraq to Afghanistan
-Something we don't know / will never know

Just the way I did with the house prices and the recession.

Sure, you predicted while it happened
It's like saying "I'm landing!" after you already touched down.

House prices are picking up again in many locations in the U.S. as many people take advantage of the lower prices.

Airline casualties in the U.S. are very likely.
My guess is UA and NW.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Lafyar

Jet A1 price two days ago £1.00 per litre

Jet A1 price today £1.00 per litre

Jet A1 price two years ago 50p per litre

I manage an lumpy bizjet and can confirm that the fuel price has not shown any negative trend for 3 YEARS its the rate of increase that has speeded up hence everybody has noticed.

If by your post you are trying to put a positive spin on the current situation by oil price I suggest that you look a little further back than two days.

I deiberately have kept out of these downturn threads, dying to come out with some great words to give wannabees everywhere a good headshake....

safe to say that people like www and myself are from the same generation, mid to late 90's doing the old CAA exams, BCPL, instruct for 500 hours / 18months then multi and then IR - CPL at 700hrs. Then and only then did you feel confident enough to apply for jobs, cant speak for www but in my case it nearly 4 years after qualifying that I found myself in a simulator for a type rating.

Guys those 4 years were HARD.

prior to JAR the ability to get into a 737 after 12 months training was really available to an elite few, sons of BA captains, rugby club captains. The course was £30k and nobody could afford it, everybody did the self improver route CAP509 ers were a rarity.

Those that have seen it, struggled with years of instruction, waiting for a break and have come through who are now captains are ideally placed now to give the advice you read in these threads because we have most recently experienced the depressing downturn that is (to anybody that was around in the late 90's, early 2000, 9/11) staring us in the face.

All this talk of economics is a sidebar to me. If you think you are going to qualify and get into a 737 anytime soon then you quite clearly have that little common sense that to be brutally frank you will probably struggle withthe job anyway.

If you do want to take www to task about economics then I read some previous threads, the forecasting of gulf War II being accurate,

When in 2003 www says train train train its never been so good and everybody did and got on with easy and FR, nobody was calling into question his motives and commitment to wannabees and the forum. Now that the sermon has changed everybody is bitching, it is classic head in the sand syndrome.

Keep your powder dry do the exams and see what happens and dont do anything stupid like remortgaging your mums house.

Long term captains in large airlines are battening down the hatches and just riding the storm, really what chance do you really think you are going to have with some seneca time and no experience when all airlines are trying to deal with just keeping the doors open.

PS www not blowing smoke up your arse, just trying to bring a bit of balance here. I can remember when G-Spots Lost was G-Spot before the great prune crash of 2002!!!

[Lafyar Cokov]

G-SPOT - as I put on the rest of my post

Not in any way the 'be all and end all' - or even a massive reduction, but interesting all the same!

I was merely pointing out that this is the first reversal in the fairly constant upsurge in the price of oil that we have had for the last few months.

As someone who gained over 4000 hours before sitting in the RHS of a 737, please don't lecture me on coming up through the ranks!! This thread was started (i believe) to provide a little counter to a thread of a similar name - as we have all seen it has been turned into exactly the same thread by those who wish to dominate this conversation. I was merely adding a little interesting news. I have not in any way attacked anyone personally and feel that your high-horse approach is a little ignorant, arrogant and presumptuous. I am not saying that times are going to be easy - or that now the price of a barrel of Sweet Crude has dropped 4%, things are all fine.

Regarding the future outlook - how can anyone speak on here with any authority at all - if you know all the answers then invest all your assets into a position on the world markets, live off the gains and sell your sage advice to thousands of investors who will pay top money to hear it from a guru. If this is not what you are doing then you are obviously - like the rest of us - at best estimating based on rough experience of past events or at worst, guessing.

I am of the opinion that - yes we are in/heading for, at the very least, a correction in the global economy and corrections/downturns/slowdowns or even recessions are self fulfilling prophesies. Whatever the trigger-action for the problem, things are generally made a great deal worse by the media, ‘the word on the street’ and now, the internet by placing people in a mindset that ‘things are bad therefore I’d better not spend any money’. Once this takes hold the entire free market suffers as suppliers cut back etc etc etc.

OK – so now I’ve realized I’ve ranted. To conclude, however, I will quote something which I posted in the ‘Downturn’ thread that – shockingly – hasn’t changed in the months since I last wrote it on the 11th of May:

Can I sum up this whole thread??

"There may or may not be further trouble ahead for the financial and housing markets - some people fervently think there will be, others are not convinced. Anyone who is thinking of entering training now should probably be quite careful that they can financially afford to do this and should think very carefully before committing themselves to a large bank loan. Wise planning and a bit of luck should land you in the right place at the right time however, be prepared for the job market to slow down and expect a possibly protracted period of unemployment prior to finally landing that first job once your training has been completed"

[nich-av]

The trigger? US government heads for diplomacy with Iran

Have they finally understood that:

the only way to
-save the country's economy
-the November elections

is to cool down the Middle-East?

or

-have they finally got what they wanted, whatever that is
-are they planning something real bad?

Time will tell.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Lafyar

Certainly didn't mean to preach to you about coming through the ranks, if you have picked up on that bit of my post and felt that I was aiming at you then accept my sincere apologies.

When Oil hits $180 a barrel, I shall politely remind you of this thread.

The point I was trying to make was summed up by this:

All this talk of economics is a sidebar to me. If you think you are going to qualify and get into a 737 anytime soon then you quite clearly have that little common sense that to be brutally frank you will probably struggle withthe job anyway

We are on the same page when you say

how can anyone speak on here with any authority at all

But regardless of what is said on here, if its going to happen then it will. Anybody who is commencing training now in my mind is a fool who will no doubt be parted with his money in the short term.

This is not a self fulfilling phrophecy as you say but a fact that to me is as plain as day, its been good for a while now its going to be crap for a while so do something else for two years.

This thread was named to provide a counter arguement to the other thread that turned into an armchair economics lesson. Its almost irresponsible to have a thread on here that puts any positive spin on peoples employment prospects for the next 24-36 months but its good for balance I suppose

Not being "ignorant, arrogant and presumptuous" as others were intended to read the post as well as you, sincerely the fuel price bit was for you and I'll stand by that as a 4% spread on that price can happen most days.

I'm tring to get a realists point of view across unencumbered by armchair economics so that people dont find themselves with nowhere to go and HSBC all over them like a cheap coat..........

[gemini76]

Www's Predictions

........... have so far been spot on.
WWW - any chance of letting me have next Saturdays winning lottery numbers please ???

[G-SPOTs Lost]

PM by Lafyar, lets keep comments in the public domain shall we. I'm too busy to debate each post individually.

Lafyar - you misunderstand, the whole post was not addressed at you - calm down, how could you overreact and misconstrue comments like "wannabees everywhere" and "Guys those 4 years were HARD" as being addressed to you.

Also if somebody has the good grace to offer their "sincere apologies" prior to receiving your petty PM, then its says more about you if you do not have the good grace to accept them.

Regarding my prediction I stand by it and would argue that in 2005 which is when my prediction became "valid" recruitment was the best it had been for a very good number of years since 9/11 and the late 90's with many wannabees getting their first job with regionals and at that time even BA taking on DEP's which would have been laughed out of court if I had made that comment back in 2003.

In ten years of pruning you are the first person to make it on my ignore list - congratulations

Lafyars PM.........

Mr GSPOT

I do not wish to have a public show-down, or try to prove anything in publicly on the forums of PPRUNE. I thought I would let you know exactly what I thought was so rude and ill thought-out in your post.

The post was addressed to me - with my moniker at the top. I believe I can therefore reasonably conclude that the comments within were all addressed to me. If at any stage you had referred to 'wannabes' or any other term to describe people looking to make choices about flying training then I could possibly forgive some of your assumptions - however you said "you" when refering to my chances of attaing a RHS position in a 737, "you" when going on about Seneca time and "you" refering to the amount of common sense I have.

With regards to common sense - I think maybe you are swimming in the shorter depths of the common-sense pool. Before publicly attacking someone - it maybe wise to check up a little about them, rather than shoot from the hip and immediately accuse anyone who posts something that you don't agree with of having
Quote:
some seneca time and no experience

The merest peek into my previous posts may have indicated that this was not the case - I started flying when you were probably in junior school, have been in the civil flying sector and for the last sixteen years as a helicopter pilot in the military. I am now out and happily sitting in the RHS of a 737 after applying for various jobs - including bizjets - for the last year.

I can see that you are GA/BizJet pilot who has gained some experience in this field but are probably keen to move into the airlines - looking at selection with MyTravel, EasyJet and BMI.

With regards the price of fuel reaching $180 dollars a barrel - I don't doubt that one day it will - however a man who has the courage of his convictions would have said "Oil will reach $180 dollars a barrel by (for example) November 08" rather than the comlete get-out of
Quote:
When Oil hits $180 a barrel, I shall politely remind you of this thread.

Regarding predicitons can I remind you of one of yours from 2003?
Quote:
I propose that in 1-2 years time, paying for a type rating will be a thing of the past. With a reasonable amount of experience Airlines will be positively tripping over themselves to recruit suitable applicants.

As you can see - we don't all have the answers - we just offer the best advice as seems fit at the time.

My original post merely stated the fact that over two days the rampant oil price had corrected. I stated openly that this was merely interesting and not a basis for anyone to mortgage anyone's home over. You elected to direct your fairly defamatory post at me, telling me that I had too little common sense to operate a 737 and that I had no idea what I was talking about. That attack was unwarranted and showed you as a person that does not take in the whole picture, cannot think through an idea without balance and fire back without thought. Is this how you fly an aircraft - I sincerely hope that for you and your passengers it is not.

Maybe you should consider whether a rethink of some of your sentiment is in order.

[Lafyar Cokov]

Maybe it was a PM because I didn't want some information posted on a public forum??????

If 'ignore' is the way you deal with people who disagree with you - maybe you should re-think your career options.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I do love a heated debate.

Of course we'd all get on famously propped up by some Bar somewhere.

Personally I'm running low on predictions so Saturdays numbers will have to remain luck dip. I did anticipate the house price crash and the recession that always follows. I am pleased that I got out of shares and into oil and gold. I know this winter will see the passing of several European airlines.

But beyond that I no longer have much certainty. There will still be a demand for pilots though. So don't give up the dream. I very much look forward to writing, once again, that "there has never been a better time to train and that Wannabes are entering a golden age" - to quote myself. 2012 is looking promising


WWW


ps Try - 07 09 22 39 42 44

[Lafyar Cokov]

WWW - if those numbers do come up I will track you down and end it all!!!

[RVR800]

Good news

Thursday....

IMF _ Upgrades Growth
FTSE _ massive one day rise 2%
Natonwide - two cuts in mortgage rates to buyers in two weeks
Oil - $10 fall in a day

On the other hand RYR grounding planes etc .. but may reverse due to positive news above?