I know the analysts are saying that the recovery in the oil price will have x effect on the bottom line and the shares are rising y% due to that news.
But I'm with WWW on this one, the big issue facing the industry is the volume of people who are choosing not to travel, not the oil price.
I'm on the other side of the Irish Sea and with the "Celtic Tiger" times have been good for the Irish economy and many many Irish people took advantage of the weak dollar and headed to New York for 3 to 4 days to do their Christmas shopping.
I have no doubt now though that with the downturn in the Irish economy the loads on these pre Christmas flights will be very much lower out of Dublin now as the same shoppers who went transatlantic for Christmas shopping in the past just can't quite justify the same this year and choose not to travel.
How could you when those Irish bank shares you bought are now down 60% in the year, you're house has fallen in value by 10%, mortgage interest rates are up, your petrol for your car is up, your company is going to miss profit targets so your bonus will be well down on last year, or maybe you won't get a bonus, or worse still you work in construction and you've been laid off.
The airlines will face maybe twice the dollar cost for fuel this year for the same transatlantic flight as last year but how much of that total cost of running an airline is the fuel bill? Which would have more effect on the bottom line, losing 50% of your passengers in a year, or doubling your fuel bill?
What happens when as we're seeing at the moment, you have a combination of both to a greater or lesser extent.
Whilst oil prices are falling back somewhat now they are still over $100 a barrel. And the major issue facing the industry, namely the fact that confidence is down and fewer pax are travelling, hasn't gone away either.
Scary times ahead for the industry over the medium term. Cut your cloth accordingly.