Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Citi today:
Their forecast is for 3 million people (one in four) of mortgage holders, to be in negative equity by next year.
Given the close correlation between house prices and consumer spending in Britain, this feel-bad factor will last for as long as so many are in negative equity. And how long will the negative equity last for?
This graph showing how house prices took nine years to recover in the last downturn – and were propelled back upwards with a credit binge that a recession-decimated Britain is very unlikely to repeat. So it may well be the 2020s before anyone who bought in the last few years will recover their capital.
“We doubt that house prices have yet reached their low, and expect that prices will fall a further 10%, and perhaps 20% from here.”
Given the close correlation between house prices and consumer spending in Britain, this feel-bad factor will last for as long as so many are in negative equity. And how long will the negative equity last for?
This graph showing how house prices took nine years to recover in the last downturn – and were propelled back upwards with a credit binge that a recession-decimated Britain is very unlikely to repeat. So it may well be the 2020s before anyone who bought in the last few years will recover their capital.
The graph has a thousand words.
Its different this time. Much much worse. The world will not return to where it was for a generation at least. Overcapacity is going to be wiped out in all areas. In car production it looks like Vauxhall is going. In airline transport it looks like ___________ is going and __________ and ___________.
Wannabes will find jobs but it really will be at minimum wage. That's what the profession has sunk to. It breaks my heart.
WWW
Its different this time. Much much worse. The world will not return to where it was for a generation at least. Overcapacity is going to be wiped out in all areas. In car production it looks like Vauxhall is going. In airline transport it looks like ___________ is going and __________ and ___________.
Wannabes will find jobs but it really will be at minimum wage. That's what the profession has sunk to. It breaks my heart.
WWW
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: ireland
Age: 38
Posts: 102
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
i'll bite - so which one of those graphs is actually correct?
I only ask because they show two different things of which only one can be factual. The first graph shows it took 14 years for house prices to regain their original peak. the second graph shows 8.5-9 years...
thanks
I only ask because they show two different things of which only one can be factual. The first graph shows it took 14 years for house prices to regain their original peak. the second graph shows 8.5-9 years...
thanks
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: N/E England
Age: 47
Posts: 239
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
minimum wage
As in £7.40ph...? or basic in terms of airline salaries..?
I would find it exceedingly difficult to survive on £7.40ph, more so, after self financing training..!
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Hoylake
Age: 50
Posts: 414
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW,as our resident pprune voice of economics, what do you think of BoE annoucement today, and the effect it will have? or will the banks just hoard it away
Still sticking with Zurich?
Still sticking with Zurich?
Gold, in Zurich, in reality, with anonymous accounts. BullionVault is good.
Todays announcement is nothing new nor is the Quantative Easing (printing money and giving it away). Everything will be thrown at the established system because the banks own the system.
Hyperinflation of fiat currency lies ahead. Protect yourself.
WWW
Todays announcement is nothing new nor is the Quantative Easing (printing money and giving it away). Everything will be thrown at the established system because the banks own the system.
Hyperinflation of fiat currency lies ahead. Protect yourself.
WWW
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 355
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
For sale...one much publicied farm...will swap for gold!!!???
Hubris?....never a word that one would ever associate with our esteemed moderator!!!
Hubris?....never a word that one would ever associate with our esteemed moderator!!!
Last edited by clear prop!!!; 5th Mar 2009 at 21:22.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 39
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by rugbyyears
As in £7.40ph...? or basic in terms of airline salaries..?
Trust me when I say, May-June 2009 is the worst time to graduate, which is when I will. It's so bad that I'm considering going ahead and completing a Masters (possibly in business or management to supplement my Computer Science BSc); something I never ever intended to do. But, I'd rather make myself more marketable and shelter myself from the economic storm for a further year, than grind NMW for the unforeseeable future.
For any professional to be offered National Minimum Wage is a disgusting and nightmarish situation. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
BA warns of pain as Walsh gets top job in merged firm | Mail Online
Seeing as I get slated for posting Daily Mail scare stories I thought I may as well actually be guilty of the charge for once...
Do NOT make the mistake of gaining expensive and time-expiring pilot qualifications in this market. You won't get a job.
WWW
Seeing as I get slated for posting Daily Mail scare stories I thought I may as well actually be guilty of the charge for once...
Unite, which represents cabin crew, is due to meet with BA later today.
Industry sources believe its 13,500 on board staff will be worst affected by any cuts. BA this week reported an 8.3 per cent fall in passengers in February, including a massive 20.2 per cent dive in profitable business class flyers.
No-frills rival easyJet (down 14p at 296¾p) added to the gloom yesterday, reporting a 6.8 per cent fall in passengers in February.
Industry sources believe its 13,500 on board staff will be worst affected by any cuts. BA this week reported an 8.3 per cent fall in passengers in February, including a massive 20.2 per cent dive in profitable business class flyers.
No-frills rival easyJet (down 14p at 296¾p) added to the gloom yesterday, reporting a 6.8 per cent fall in passengers in February.
Do NOT make the mistake of gaining expensive and time-expiring pilot qualifications in this market. You won't get a job.
WWW
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
British Airways closes in on Iberia merger
I really appreciate your opinion www but peronsally i'm going to go ahead as planned and start training in April. I do understand the risks however i harbour the hope that we will come out of this in a few years time when my training should be complete.
British Airways has given its strongest indication yet that the proposed merger with Iberia, the Spanish flag carrier, is imminent with only one outstanding issue to be resolved before the deal can be agreed.
Willie Walsh, the chief executive of BA, said that early sticking points including the airline’s pension deficit and share of ownership were no longer problems.
The chairman and chief executive roles have also been agreed in principle and an estimated £400 million of synergies identified.
However, Mr Walsh did say that there was still no agreement on how the merged parent company would control the two airlines.
Willie Walsh, the chief executive of BA, said that early sticking points including the airline’s pension deficit and share of ownership were no longer problems.
The chairman and chief executive roles have also been agreed in principle and an estimated £400 million of synergies identified.
However, Mr Walsh did say that there was still no agreement on how the merged parent company would control the two airlines.
Do NOT make the mistake of gaining expensive and time-expiring pilot qualifications in this market. You won't get a job.
You're mad. A couple of years is nothing.
WWW
WWW
I'm more Joshua Tree thanks. No need for me to chill - this is the crisis I expected and planned for.
WWW
WWW
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: South
Posts: 171
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Wee weasley welshman,
I have been reading past posts/threads by afraz and fabbe92 and they make it sound so easy.
So stop with the doom and gloom. You are old school. They are the future.
I have been reading past posts/threads by afraz and fabbe92 and they make it sound so easy.
So stop with the doom and gloom. You are old school. They are the future.
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 955
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No More Doom and Gloom Please (It's boring)
Some companies are doing very well at the moment
A lot of this is about confidence.
Its sometimes better to buy at the bottom of the market .. its cheaper .. some well known wales forecasters (moderators) were predicting $200/barrel at the end of last year -- they weren't right -- so beware of the doom and gloom brigade they tend to get carried away
House prices have fallen to some extent because people are electing to stay put and so there is a limited supply of people that _have_ to sell - so the figures are misleading - that said in my area they havent fallen much anyway
It fortunate that fuel costs are so low - it will help airlines boost their profits substantially
A lot of this is about confidence.
Its sometimes better to buy at the bottom of the market .. its cheaper .. some well known wales forecasters (moderators) were predicting $200/barrel at the end of last year -- they weren't right -- so beware of the doom and gloom brigade they tend to get carried away
House prices have fallen to some extent because people are electing to stay put and so there is a limited supply of people that _have_ to sell - so the figures are misleading - that said in my area they havent fallen much anyway
It fortunate that fuel costs are so low - it will help airlines boost their profits substantially