Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
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From: Scottish FIR
As Chris says, the rescue is more to keep the banking sector functioning, rather than bolster share prices. The picture I now get is that all sectors are suffering and the drop in commodities indicate a sharp fall in demand. pile on the 20 grand the government has committed for every uk taxpayer just to oil the banking sector. Some say we will get this money back, doubtful in my lifetime and that of many others. In the interim up goes my tax.
Tomorrow I shall cheer my self up and send a fax to tesco detailing the new egg prices. If they dont pay, Morrisons will.
Tomorrow I shall cheer my self up and send a fax to tesco detailing the new egg prices. If they dont pay, Morrisons will.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
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From: between a rock and a hard place
The markets are being driven by fear at them moment so they aren't rational.
I believe that Barclays and another bank prefer not to take the capital injection at the moment and instead prefer to take their chances with the money market, the consensus seems to be that sooner or later they will have to go back to the Government with their cap in hand. (there is talk of a sub £2.00 Barclay share price tomorrow)
Barclays is one of todays largest fallers where as HBOS is one of the largest risers. Until the banks sort themselves out and we find out the full details of the governments plan (ie cancellation of divi's etc) I don't think we'll see the full effect of the rescue plan.
I expect having the US follow our example will help things too.
Anthony Bolton has predicted that financials and consumer cyclicals will lead the (long slooooow) recovery, I believe commodities are due for more of a battering before they recover.
There was almost as much blue as there was red in my virtual potfolio today.
I believe that Barclays and another bank prefer not to take the capital injection at the moment and instead prefer to take their chances with the money market, the consensus seems to be that sooner or later they will have to go back to the Government with their cap in hand. (there is talk of a sub £2.00 Barclay share price tomorrow)
Barclays is one of todays largest fallers where as HBOS is one of the largest risers. Until the banks sort themselves out and we find out the full details of the governments plan (ie cancellation of divi's etc) I don't think we'll see the full effect of the rescue plan.
I expect having the US follow our example will help things too.
Anthony Bolton has predicted that financials and consumer cyclicals will lead the (long slooooow) recovery, I believe commodities are due for more of a battering before they recover.
There was almost as much blue as there was red in my virtual potfolio today.
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
From: FL 350
The Venezuelan's and the Iranian's have enjoyed the taste of $15O DPB and will do anything to persuade the rest of the Cartel to cling on to high prices.
Anyone think we are heading towards a period of deflation?
A command economy, state owned banks, assets decreasing in value, bankrupties and money value falling.
A command economy, state owned banks, assets decreasing in value, bankrupties and money value falling.
Some great buying opportunities at the moment
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
Originally Posted by littco
Anyone think we are heading towards a period of deflation?
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
Topslide6
"I guess when I refer to the price of oil, it in the hope that there's more chance of some of us pilots still being in a job come 2009."
Perfectly understandable, but alas....I'll not repeat all that's been said before.
Keep your pecker up.
"I guess when I refer to the price of oil, it in the hope that there's more chance of some of us pilots still being in a job come 2009."
Perfectly understandable, but alas....I'll not repeat all that's been said before.
Keep your pecker up.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
From: between a rock and a hard place
I think it would be prudent to wait until the full details of the rescue out are released.
Keep your fingers crossed none of these city traders ever get a job flying an aircraft and are faced with an emergency situation, judging by the panic we are seeing here their solution would be to push every button on the panel and if that didn't work they'd jump out of the window
Keep your fingers crossed none of these city traders ever get a job flying an aircraft and are faced with an emergency situation, judging by the panic we are seeing here their solution would be to push every button on the panel and if that didn't work they'd jump out of the window
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 17,503
Likes: 1,846
From: England
FTSE nibbling under 4000 - I want sirens and red lights NOW!
The post Sept 11th and the 2005 slowdown did not result in one quarter of the falls seen in airlines shareprice in the year to date.
Shareprice tells all.
WWW
The post Sept 11th and the 2005 slowdown did not result in one quarter of the falls seen in airlines shareprice in the year to date.
Shareprice tells all.
WWW
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
Grodon Broon is doing everything he can....he's confident this will see us through the crisis
I think we are in the capitulation stage, complete market surrender.
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 17,503
Likes: 1,846
From: England
Green line is VERY long term trend.
Blue line is trend since 1985.
Red line is post 95 trend (ish).
Now, are we going back to 1985 growth rates or long term ones?
This evening (7pm London) the Lehman 'assets' get auctioned. We will find out how much they are worth. The morons who sold insurance on Lehmans bonds will get taken to the cleaners. The main parties are JP Morgan, Goldmans, and Morgan Stanley. They gambled that Lehmans would be bailed by the govt just like Bear Stearns and AIG.
Hundreds and hundreds of Billions.
Panic Mr Mannering, PANIC!
WWW
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
Now, are we going back to 1985 growth rates or long term ones?
The insurance exposure is thought to be $400b in the US. I wonder how many underwriters can meet their commitments. Reminiscent of the Lloyd's names fiasco. Just on a bigger scale.
Joined: Dec 1999
Posts: 1,606
Likes: 0
From: UK
Darkening skies
FT.com
More airlines have gone bust this year than after 9/11. International passenger growth keeps slowing, according to figures from Iata, the airlines’ association, although it has not plunged to the negative growth seen after the terrorist attacks – yet. The falling oil price, despite the strengthening dollar, provides the only consolation for an industry bracing itself for hard months ahead.
The spillover from the financial crisis is altering the landscape. Just look at British Airways: when its all-share merger with Spain’s Iberia was announced at the end of July, the expectation was that the Spanish would get around 33 per cent of the new entity. That was a reflection of both market capitalisation and traffic and revenue. But the crisis is shifting the balance of power. The premium passenger traffic that BA has been banking on fell 8.6 per cent in September and the forecast for the next few months is gloomy. Add to this BA’s massive pension deficit, which has been widening by the day and affects its valuation. BA’s woes have emboldened the Spanish. Caja Madrid, Iberia’s largest investor, is pushing for a 40 per cent stake in the new entity. A few weeks down the line, it could well demand a better ratio, even a merger of equals. BA’s shares have been falling considerably faster than Iberia’s, pushing the two companies’ market capitalisations towards convergence.
The Spanish airline has taken advantage of the low price to more than double its stake in BA to 7.3 per cent and is poised to increase it further. The positive view is that Iberia is buying BA shares to underline its commitment to the merger. Another is that Iberia might be sharpening its knives to launch a takeover of BA itself. Iata insists that mergers are the way forward in a difficult market. But it seems that as far as BA and Iberia is concerned, take-off is delayed.
FT.com
More airlines have gone bust this year than after 9/11. International passenger growth keeps slowing, according to figures from Iata, the airlines’ association, although it has not plunged to the negative growth seen after the terrorist attacks – yet. The falling oil price, despite the strengthening dollar, provides the only consolation for an industry bracing itself for hard months ahead.
The spillover from the financial crisis is altering the landscape. Just look at British Airways: when its all-share merger with Spain’s Iberia was announced at the end of July, the expectation was that the Spanish would get around 33 per cent of the new entity. That was a reflection of both market capitalisation and traffic and revenue. But the crisis is shifting the balance of power. The premium passenger traffic that BA has been banking on fell 8.6 per cent in September and the forecast for the next few months is gloomy. Add to this BA’s massive pension deficit, which has been widening by the day and affects its valuation. BA’s woes have emboldened the Spanish. Caja Madrid, Iberia’s largest investor, is pushing for a 40 per cent stake in the new entity. A few weeks down the line, it could well demand a better ratio, even a merger of equals. BA’s shares have been falling considerably faster than Iberia’s, pushing the two companies’ market capitalisations towards convergence.
The Spanish airline has taken advantage of the low price to more than double its stake in BA to 7.3 per cent and is poised to increase it further. The positive view is that Iberia is buying BA shares to underline its commitment to the merger. Another is that Iberia might be sharpening its knives to launch a takeover of BA itself. Iata insists that mergers are the way forward in a difficult market. But it seems that as far as BA and Iberia is concerned, take-off is delayed.