PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 10th Sep 2008, 00:01
  #327 (permalink)  
nich-av
 
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Would somebody care to explain how as a newly qualified fATPL with zero operational experience quite how you plan to leapfrog 450 zoom/futura experienced 73/75 & 767 pilot who will probably take the next two years to employ as their target employers are all looking for economic savings and redundancys and extra productivity from their current staff...
I will explain to you my dear friend.
Futura leaves a big hole in the Spanish market, a hole that other airlines will fill in no time. Futura had 19 aircraft, of which probably 1 might have been used as replacement aircraft.
450 pilots is therefore an unrealisticly high number. On short/medium haul ops, 14 pilots per aircraft is a good average bringing the total down to about 19 x 14 = 266 pilots, almost half your number.

Of those 266 pilots, 133 are supposedly captains, 50 experienced F/O's.
Other Spanish airlines, Ryanair and Easyjet will fight for those 183 pilots and would recruit them even if that results in a small surplus of pilots. The LCC's have probably stopped recruitment (even if they are still increasing capacity) simply because they are waiting for such airline failures so that they can go up and grab those experienced but desperate pilots.

Really because some tend to think that Ryanair and Easyjet prefer to recruit ab-initio's to make extra money on the 25 000€ they pay. I think that it's rather because they have no choice and want to cover the cost of the TR and to some extent, line training. But such occasions as Futura is what they are really waiting for. Highly experienced pilots that will not cost much to train and that would accept the working conditions very easily are available for grabs...

Of course that impacts the job market of ab-initio's for a few months.

But there's many captains from Ryanair and Easyjet leaving for Dubai right now so I wouldn't worry too much.

Also, it looks like most of the 19 aircraft were leased. The aircraft will retun to the lessor and be forwarded to other airlines where new jobs will be created and pilots will be needed.
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