Having follwed this thread for many months now, it seems that there are denyers and there are realists.
Whilst it might be nice for ones nerves to be a denyer, it seems to me to be a foolish attitude. Looking backwards, over many years, shows that realists like WWW are absolutely correct in their assesment of the immediate future.
Looking even further ahead and using the same information as has been used by other realists on this site, I will give you my take on the next five years or so.
With a few notable and well financed and properly run exceptions, the next few years will see the loss of many, many aircrew/airline and associated jobs.
Recruitment and training will be the first to suffer, followed soon by job losses in the less efficient and poorly managed airlines.
Restricting expansion, delaying or canceling mergers and severe route cut-backs will lead to drastic contraction of fleets: the older, less efficient aircraft going first.
With fuel at twice the price it was two years ago, I cannot see a way back from the present situation, even if fuel prices stabilise, or even more unlikely, reduce again.
The public perception has changed considerably over the recent past. Airlines are seen as polluters, even if the numbers show that the contribution is only a small percentage of the total.
Demand for business and leisure travel will always exist but simply not anywhere near the current totals. The surcharges and tax on a ticket to Asia from UK now amounts to 65% of the total price. Not sustainable!
House price deflation, negative equity, tight borrowing, high unemployment, rapidly rising energy costs, tightening fuel supplies with expanding demand and falling stock markets all lead to the inevitable conclusion that we are heading for a massive correction in all aspects of modern life.
I will be pleasantly surprised, nay amazed, if 60% of the present capacity still operates in five years time.
If you have an alternative to flying, either as you approach the end of your flying career, or before you embark on it, then take it sooner, rather than later.
Good luck to us all.