Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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I said this would happen!! At the moment all is in our favour ( well me personally!! ) At this rate ill have a realistic chance at buying house in the next 12 months or so and I might get a flying job in the oil crash!!!
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The thread seems to be spluttering now, is it finally time for it to slide into page 2?
I have enjoyed reading all the comments and analysis and appreciate peoples different points of view on everything - keep it alive with something sensible, WWW news from the Rivercottage???
I have enjoyed reading all the comments and analysis and appreciate peoples different points of view on everything - keep it alive with something sensible, WWW news from the Rivercottage???
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Much is being made on the oil price falling from its recent highs, but its only at a 7 week low. Compared to last years price, its still horribly high. The UK economy grew at 0.2% last quarter and brings us perilously close to recession by the year end.
The main reason for spiralling oil prices is speculation by fund managers, now that demand has started to show some signs of easing, its not so attractive, the fund managers have to start looking elsewhere, or accept a reduced return. I do wonder if one or two of them got there fingers burnt.
Halifax cutting interest rates is not much comfort as inflation has now started to take off and unemployment is on the up. I doubt that it will attract new borrowers when the price of electricity, gas, food and transport are escalating, at the same time more and more people are worried about job security.
Industry is already in recession the rest will surely follow by the year end.
The main reason for spiralling oil prices is speculation by fund managers, now that demand has started to show some signs of easing, its not so attractive, the fund managers have to start looking elsewhere, or accept a reduced return. I do wonder if one or two of them got there fingers burnt.
Halifax cutting interest rates is not much comfort as inflation has now started to take off and unemployment is on the up. I doubt that it will attract new borrowers when the price of electricity, gas, food and transport are escalating, at the same time more and more people are worried about job security.
Industry is already in recession the rest will surely follow by the year end.
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watch your bills go up in august
Fuel poverty
The government estimates that 2.5 million households are in fuel poverty - defined as when more than 10% of household income is spent on fuel bills - but watchdog Energywatch says the figure is more than four million.
A 40% rise in average fuel bills would be far higher than expected and would put more pressure on homeowners already struggling with higher food and fuel costs.
However, some analysts believe the increases will be closer to 25%.
It is thought that any price announcements are most likely to come in August, when energy bills are not at the forefront of people's minds. But there is a great reluctance in the industry to be the first to reveal a big rise, so the rises may be unveiled in stages.
Marvelous
The government estimates that 2.5 million households are in fuel poverty - defined as when more than 10% of household income is spent on fuel bills - but watchdog Energywatch says the figure is more than four million.
A 40% rise in average fuel bills would be far higher than expected and would put more pressure on homeowners already struggling with higher food and fuel costs.
However, some analysts believe the increases will be closer to 25%.
It is thought that any price announcements are most likely to come in August, when energy bills are not at the forefront of people's minds. But there is a great reluctance in the industry to be the first to reveal a big rise, so the rises may be unveiled in stages.
Marvelous
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Cuban leader warns of austerity
BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Cuban leader warns of austerity
Castro has the balls to tell his people the truth.
Castro has the balls to tell his people the truth.
BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet
Gatwick to bear the brunt of cutbacks with fuel costs grounding 20% of short-haul flights as airline follows budget rivals' streamlining
BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet - Times Online
In terms of pilots employed in the UK the Big Three are BA, easyJet and Ryanair. Every single one of them has warned that the outlook is bleak. Each have announced capacity cuts. Each is reducing fleet size in the UK. Each has seen its shareprice cut by more than half.
This is as I expected and wrote about last year. Come the Winter you WILL see UK airlines go out of business. Do not use last year, or even this year as a guide to next years pilot wannabe recruitment market. You won't believe how quickly and how badly it can deteriorate and you have to keep those ratings valid and your flying skills current and your debts repaid.
Do not overcommit yourselves.
WWW
Gatwick to bear the brunt of cutbacks with fuel costs grounding 20% of short-haul flights as airline follows budget rivals' streamlining
BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet - Times Online
In terms of pilots employed in the UK the Big Three are BA, easyJet and Ryanair. Every single one of them has warned that the outlook is bleak. Each have announced capacity cuts. Each is reducing fleet size in the UK. Each has seen its shareprice cut by more than half.
This is as I expected and wrote about last year. Come the Winter you WILL see UK airlines go out of business. Do not use last year, or even this year as a guide to next years pilot wannabe recruitment market. You won't believe how quickly and how badly it can deteriorate and you have to keep those ratings valid and your flying skills current and your debts repaid.
Do not overcommit yourselves.
WWW
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seems that american colleagues will be joining us in the job hunt and ryanair was already meeting some of them
http://www.pprune.org/forums/terms-e...es-pilots.html
http://www.pprune.org/forums/terms-e...es-pilots.html
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And what is less reported is the constant, ever changing capacity reductions in the charter market...
The charter market is doing exceptionally well, even here in the U.S.
Most pilots who are furloughed by the majors are jumping onto charter airlines. It might be just a temporary summer thing but until now, the charter market has seen no capacity reduction at all.
The TUI group is still adding aircraft and hiring pilots (except for Thomsonfly).
Now, I know that the UK charter market is doing pretty bad, but what applies to the UK does not necessarily apply to the whole world. The very strong presence of LCC's in the UK has alot do with that.
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And with the way the US dollar is at the moment MOL will be using that to screw the guys and gals heading east big time. Will be a further erosion across the industry and provide our CEO's with more ammunition to fire at our unions at the next pay rounds.
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Ryanair stock price down nearly 20% on a MASSIVE profit warning today.... you optimists who think their fleet expansion plans will continue unhindered are smoking the good stuff....
UPDATE 3-Ryanair fare cuts may mean first loss since 1989 | Reuters
Even MOL is starting to look out of his depth in this downturn...
... pointing to a big expected fall in passenger yields both over the winter and interestingly this summer... another (significant) crack forms in the outlook.
UPDATE 3-Ryanair fare cuts may mean first loss since 1989 | Reuters
Even MOL is starting to look out of his depth in this downturn...
... pointing to a big expected fall in passenger yields both over the winter and interestingly this summer... another (significant) crack forms in the outlook.
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Can't imagine this will be good news for wanabee jobs... merger typically = job losses or at best a recruitment freeze
The news flow has taken a dramatic turn for the worst in regard to the wanabee job market over the past week if you ask me...
British Airways and Iberia confirm merger talks - Times Online
The news flow has taken a dramatic turn for the worst in regard to the wanabee job market over the past week if you ask me...
British Airways and Iberia confirm merger talks - Times Online
Thread Starter
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It will be the first major airline merger in history that does not impact on pilot recruitment at the airlines involved if that is the case. Especially as this is arguably a defensive merger as we move into a downturn
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It will be the first major airline merger in history that does not impact on pilot recruitment at the airlines involved if that is the case.
The SN/VEX merger that took place last year, the Sabena/Swissair merger, the JAL/JAS merger are but a few examples of mergers that saw no effect on pilot recruitment. When LH acquired LX, a more extreme case, we actually saw an increase in pilot jobs.
The BA/IB merger has been a rumour for a couple of years already and I doubt that BA is in a financial position to make this happen. It's all about the lucrative markets of South America and to a minor extent, Africa.
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YeeeeeeeHa!
Deary Me....
BBC NEWS | Business | Warning as HSBC profits fall 28%
You could argue that the difference between $14 billion and $10 billion is a bit abstract, but 30% knocked off a worldwide major banking organization...
BBC NEWS | Business | Warning as HSBC profits fall 28%
You could argue that the difference between $14 billion and $10 billion is a bit abstract, but 30% knocked off a worldwide major banking organization...