....By all means advise caution, but shock headlines about the state of the US domestic airline market have little relevance to what happens in Europe and the middle east, very few europeans would want or be able to look for jobs with the US majors.
You can't take any one country or economy in isolation, what happens in the states, is usually exported to Europe and beyond, so it is MOST relevant. Not only is it that the young wannabees have not seen a recession, but the older population will have not seen one of this magnitude either, we have to refer to the history books. One national builder is on record as saying its the worst for 50 years. I believe them.
The same is true of the housing market in the UK. OK, you've made what may be a smart move in selling your house but in your enthusiasm to talk down house prices you are not presenting a balanced picture to wannabees, you (and heliport) are only swamping us with one extreme viewpoint.
I feel it is a factual viewpoint put by www. In fact my own views may be considered even more extreme than www. Again the housing market should not be taken in isolation. The underlying reason for the decline is down to the banking system going into meltdown and loss of confidence. That is spreading rapidly to other areas of the economy at a pace faster than economists and analysts can keep up with. That is dangerous, because the interbank system is effectively broken. Its not possible for one bank to accurately asses the risk of lending to another bank, so they have massively reduced activity, and any lending activity that does exist, is at a higher interest rate. The Chancellor tried to fix this by injecting credit into the banking system, but as he and his junior ministers do not understand the system, his plans are doomed. AKA Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingly next. After that your guess is as good as mine. I suggest HBOS.
That is in fact the crux of the problem. No-one knows what will happen to either the economy or the airline market, there are only opinions. The press tout an alarmist view because it simply makes better headlines, but for every cut-and-paste article there's a quieter voice somewhere with a more moderate opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong, but you are losing the balanced view in your enthusiasm to see house price falls.
I feel that we do know what will happen to the economy, we just don't know how far it will fall. Certainly worse than the 70's All the evidence is there to support this. Inflation is going up (particularly food) as is unemployment. Both of these issues are not making the headline just yet, but they will as they gather pace. Disposable income is shrinking fast, that means the holidays are first to go. People wont stop taking holidays, those that can still afford it will take cheaper breaks, probably in the home market.
The press. I would usually side with you on this one. I'm surprised that they didn't come out with many of the current stories sooner. There is much more bad news to come from the banking sector. They have been busy drawing up a new system to guarantee debt in the form of bonds in an effort to make the huge loses on the sub-prime sector. I am told the systems fall outside the regulators grasp and is based upon a quick economic recovery. Last quarter of 2008/first quarter 2009 should see this one emerge.
www puts emphasis on the housing market which I feel appropriate to this thread, as its the main source of security for loans for wannabes. My concern is that it is now entirely possible to secure a loan for training, wind up with no job, default on the loan, lose your house and still owe money because of negative equity.
One thing which seems to be missed, is not just the fall in prices, but the massive drop in volumes. Inflation or deflation matters not if there are no buyers, and there are just not the buyers out there. Ignore what the press and the banks say about Scotland holding up, the central belt is in just a bad a state as England, houses are not selling at any price. One lawyer said, and I quote, "The housing market! shove your head in a bucket of sand, after 18 months pop up, see what its like and be ready to shove your head back in."
The shame of it is that your basic advice is, as ever, sound. Anyone entering the market now should be aware that there is a probability that jobs will not be so easy to find in a year or two. Stay in employment as long as you can, don't borrow large sums secured against property, be careful. Oh, and never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose.
Totally agree, I just can't see much or any recruiting for newcomers this winter. You last sentance is so important, I would like to repeat it:
never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose
Alex, please don't take my post as a pop at you, its just my thoughts on what you have written. I benefit from having a background that includes the food industry, airlines, and now farming. I hope that I give a balanced view drawn from previous experiences and the current climate. I know that people will not enjoy reading my thoughts, particularly those coming into the profession, but its how it is. WWW sometimes has an unfortunate writing style, (maybe I do as well) but he is correct.