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3 lost west of Brisbane Monday 29-8-22

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3 lost west of Brisbane Monday 29-8-22

Old 6th Sep 2022, 11:02
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
Interesting as well that 80% of VFR into IMC accidents are pilots over 40 years old. This pilot fits into that grouping. I think that shows a confidence issue, or more so an overconfidence issue, probably along the lines of 'I'm sure I know what I'm doing'. Still it is concerning that older pilots seem to be more likely to do this. As somebody mentioned earlier we know he's a highly experienced helicopter pilot, but how much fixed wing time did he have.
Many reasons likely.

Maybe the younger pilots are so used to home computer flight sim that they have no issues pushing the little aircraft pointer around the hills depicted on the aircraft nav screen ?





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Old 7th Sep 2022, 01:18
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
Interesting as well that 80% of VFR into IMC accidents are pilots over 40 years old. This pilot fits into that grouping. I think that shows a confidence issue, or more so an overconfidence issue, probably along the lines of 'I'm sure I know what I'm doing'. Still it is concerning that older pilots seem to be more likely to do this. As somebody mentioned earlier we know he's a highly experienced helicopter pilot, but how much fixed wing time did he have.
And do we have data about how old those pilots were when they first started flying?

(BTW: Very big call to already conclude that this accident was caused by operating VFR in IMC. )



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Old 7th Sep 2022, 01:19
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Thinking further on the reasoning behind why Mike Patey went for many cockpit screens got me remembering to when I first started flying on the aircraft dials.

Back in the day I had my own VFR aircraft though used to rent the IFR capable machines and flew many types of aircraft from Mooneys, Pipers, and Cessna’s. One thing all these different types of aircraft had were the same basic type of primary instrument flight layout - the ‘six pack’ layout. Vac AH/DG, Air pressure AS/ALT/VSI and an electric TC (Not all aircraft were standardised to the six pack though the aircraft I flew were) The failure checking and resolution were thus standardised to whatever I flew.

Whilst the organisations I rented from always checked me out on an aircraft before I flew it there was never any discussion about the six pack. No matter what ‘type’ of aircraft I flew I had no confusion as to what I should do re flying on the dials or any instrument failure errors. They all had the same ‘type’ of primary instrument panel and the same ‘type’ of failure systematic routine.

Nowadays, there seems to be no standardised layout to aircraft panels re primary instrument flight. I recall when the then Archerfield Cirrus dealer got the first ‘big screen’ aircraft in I got a late night demo run in it. All went well for me the first ten minutes or so into flight whilst I sat there in awe looking at the video game in front of me though, then it occurred to me, what happens if that big glowing screen suddenly goes blank ? Enquiring, I discovered there were a standard AH somewhere about my left knee !!! I wondered how I would transition from a big bright glowing screen going dark to a poorly lit little AH….







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Old 7th Sep 2022, 01:37
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(BTW: Very big call to already conclude that this accident was caused by operating VFR in IMC. )
Given that the weather was conducive to VMC into IMC and that the photo of the wreckage showed a sudden impact and that VMC into IMC is not uncommon, I am intrigued as to why you would say its a very big call? I agree that to unequivocally state that it was the cause is premature but it is not a stretch to speculate that the accident was a result of VMC into IMC.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:04
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
Given that the weather was conducive to VMC into IMC and that the photo of the wreckage showed a sudden impact and that VMC into IMC is not uncommon, I am intrigued as to why you would say its a very big call? I agree that to unequivocally state that it was the cause is premature but it is not a stretch to speculate that the accident was a result of VMC into IMC.
Speculate away… though until we get the ATSB report, that’s all it is.

I’ve flown around the area of the crash for over thirty years and noted there is rarely a consistent fog or cloud cover. You can be standing on the ground with 50 metre visibility and walk 100 metres and see to the distant hills. There are areas of ground humidity caused by the large water areas. The small hills causing their own micro climates, and the weather demarcation caused by the Brisbane ranges to the near east and the Great Divide to the near west are another factor. Some days flying above the fogs it looks like it is water flowing around the hills and valleys and with very sharply defined edges to the fog.

Anybody driving down the Brisbane valley highway can see the effect of driving in dense fog and suddenly coming out into sunshine. Whilst a car has no choice but to stay on track, an aircraft has the freedom to not stay ‘on the road’.

Just because some cameras thereabout show cloud etc, and a ground observer sees cloud etc, does not mean the accident aircraft were in IF.

Just to clarify, I get the impression that some think “scud running” is an illegal act. I always thought of it, and were under the impression, as it just meant you were not navigating on a defined track but navigating roughly in the direction you wish to go whilst navigating around cloud/fog/heavy rain areas whilst maintaining visual flight.





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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:10
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LL: Because of the experience of the PIC. Doesn't sound to me like someone who'd flown the same hour 40,000 times over.

Big call to rule out the possibility of a medical event.

And I'd be very interested to know whether either of the PAX were budding pilots.

Still, I agree that O's Razor leads us in a (tragically-common) direction.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:14
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And do we have data about how old those pilots were when they first started flying?
A good question also, there is nothing in the dataset that refers to that. However it is a stat that is worth investigating further from the ATSB point of view. If indeed that stat is reflected in Australia, then why are older pilots so susceptible to it. Is it age related, is it related to only older pilots can afford their own planes, is it related to a mindset or is it just a distribution of long term PPL, VFR pilots are older. Is it that the younger pilots not pushing conditions to get anywhere because they are just training for commercial purposes, and so on.

(BTW: Very big call to already conclude that this accident was caused by operating VFR in IMC. )
Not saying this was definitively a VFR into IMC accident, there's still other things that could have happened, just that the pilot fits into the over 40 category. If it does turn out to be the case it is a VFR into IMC it would be worth the ATSB looking into this quirk in statistics and maybe find some possible answers and things we can work on to drive the numbers down. I would say the few AF accidents that involved night/IMC misadventure were also older pilots as well. And BTW in no way is this an attack on older pilots, but a chance to figure out what decision making process is possibly different. It may just be a simple answer that the majority of PPL holders with their own planes are that old, maybe not.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:30
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(BTW: Very big call to already conclude that this accident was caused by operating VFR in IMC. )
Look at the track flown prior to the crash! I guess its possible that a pilot has a medical incident or some other issue ............ while scud running!

Last edited by ForkTailedDrKiller; 7th Sep 2022 at 02:47.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:32
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Perhaps ask Mike Patey why he has gone the multi screen route. He comments in this video about the need to quickly obtain information and to avoid changing ‘pages’ whilst in flight. For those who don’t know of Patey he is an incredibly intelligent private pilot who has flown every thing from jets to helicopters:

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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:35
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A while ago a favourite mid-life crisis decision for men was to buy a Harley or a Harley-lookalike and head out on the highway (usually draped in Harley gear, including the missus wearing Harley lingerie). A sharp increase in prangs involving older motorcyclists ensued.

I started riding motor bikes when I was a teenager and have owned many. Being 55 with 40 years on the road is not the same as being 55 with 4 months on the road.

That's why I'm interested in the stats about when pilots involved in these kinds of accidents first started flying. Anecdotal evidence suggests that lots of private pilots come to flying later in life (or return to flying later in life after a long hiatus).


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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:38
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Originally Posted by ForkTailedDrKiller
Look at the track flown prior to the crash! I guess its possible that the pilot had a medical incident or some other issue ............ while scud running!
Indeed.

But why was a pilot with this one's experience and qualifications scud running?
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:40
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For those who don’t know Patey he is an incredibly intelligent private pilot who has flown every thing from jets to helicopters:
A very good point to remember when referring to any quotes from these guys. They are smart, experienced and fit. Not the average new PPL, who could be anything worthy of a drivers licence, so it's easy to say to the top end pilots 'you can do, this, this,this' when in trouble, 'just push that, twist this and fling that'. But remember there are many PPLs who are not tech savvy, struggle to put 2+2 together and can't see much past the cowling, or read lettering smaller than rego markings at 5 paces. We are not all Yeagers and Hoovers. I started to believe in the Force doing some BFRs years back, there was no logical answer for how some of the older guys could get from A to B sometimes (Pre GPS of course).
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 02:58
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We are not all Yeagers and Hoovers
Indeed we are not, but it needs to be remembered that even these two gentlemen made decisions that resulted in accidents where aircraft were written off, the former refusing to take instruction from a junior that lead to the loss of a F-104, the latter refueling his piston Aero Commander with Jet A, belatedly the former refused to accept responsibility, the latter did and went on to introduce to the industry a fuel nozzle that prevented misfuelling.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 03:00
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Big call to rule out the possibility of a medical event.
True, but given the size of the impact crater it will be highly unlikely that they can determine the medical state of the pilot at the time he was flying.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 10:48
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
Indeed.

But why was a pilot with this one's experience and qualifications scud running?
Just because we now have the 20-20 hind-site of the prang and the bad WX ‘vibe’ does not necessarily mean the pilot at the time thought of the flight as anything out of the ordinary or out of the minimas ‘box’.

Be interesting to see what the ATSB find re phone vids, texts or phone calls.




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Old 7th Sep 2022, 11:21
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Originally Posted by Flying Binghi
Just because we now have the 20-20 hind-site of the prang and the bad WX ‘vibe’ does not necessarily mean the pilot at the time thought of the flight as anything out of the ordinary or out of the minimas ‘box’..
That - to me at least - is even more concerning that there are / might be commercial pilots out there who think nothing of passing over the top of a hill with just 360 feet terrain clearance in what is demonstrably ****ty weather.

Have a look at the ADS-B track, convert the altitude readout from PA to MSL and overlay it with a digital elevation model or topo chart and ask yourself "Would I be happy to do that?" I could (almost) guarantee the answer will come back "Yeah, naahhh...." I don't like speaking ill of those that aren't here to defend themselves, but CPL / CIR or no, there's no way in hell I'd "willingly" fly that profile.
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 11:31
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Originally Posted by megan
Indeed we are not, but it needs to be remembered that even these two gentlemen made decisions that resulted in accidents where aircraft were written off, the former refusing to take instruction from a junior that lead to the loss of a F-104, the latter refueling his piston Aero Commander with Jet A, belatedly the former refused to accept responsibility, the latter did and went on to introduce to the industry a fuel nozzle that prevented misfuelling.
The latter did not refuel himself, it was a line boy who after the accident felt deeply disturbed for mishandling the fuel. Bob then asked the boy to refuel again for the rest of the airshow.
(Forever Flying pg.275-277)
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Old 7th Sep 2022, 22:01
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Originally Posted by KRviator
That - to me at least - is even more concerning that there are / might be commercial pilots out there who think nothing of passing over the top of a hill with just 360 feet terrain clearance in what is demonstrably ****ty weather.

Have a look at the ADS-B track, convert the altitude readout from PA to MSL and overlay it with a digital elevation model or topo chart and ask yourself "Would I be happy to do that?" I could (almost) guarantee the answer will come back "Yeah, naahhh...." I don't like speaking ill of those that aren't here to defend themselves, but CPL / CIR or no, there's no way in hell I'd "willingly" fly that profile.
Fly the peaks, not the valleys. There be spiders in the valleys.

Noting others comments on the integrity of some of these web trackers I’d like to see an ATSB report reference on the mater.





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Old 8th Sep 2022, 00:51
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The latter did not refuel himself, it was a line boy who after the accident felt deeply disturbed for mishandling the fuel. Bob then asked the boy to refuel again for the rest of the airshow
That is indeed true, Hoover talked to the lad as he was about to drive away following the refueling and never noticed the truck had a "Jet A" prominently displayed sign, nor noticed the refueling slip had "Jet A" as the fuel dispensed, no mention made of a fuel drain being made. As you say, Hoover was most magnanimous following the event,
Hoover asked, “Where’s the line boy who serviced my plane?” Everyone seemed reluctant to tell him, apparently afraid that the airshow performer wanted to chew him out or be unkind to him.Finally, someone said, “He’s outside.” Hoover quickly located the boy, standing by the fence, with tears in his eyes.

Hoover went over and put his arm around the youngster and said, “There isn’t a man alive who hasn’t made a mistake. But I’m positive you’ll never make this mistake again. That’s why I want to make sure that you’re the only one to refuel my plane tomorrow. I won’t let anyone else on the field touch it.”

And for the remainder of that weekend’s air show, the young man refueled Hoover’s P-51 without any further incident.
When the National Transportation Safety Board investigation (LAX78FA053) concluded, its probable cause agreed with Hoover’s assessment: the improper servicing of the aircraft by ground crew personnel with the inappropriate fuel grade. Contributing to the accident, however, was the pilot’s inadequate preflight preparation and/or planning.
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Old 8th Sep 2022, 03:06
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Originally Posted by Flying Binghi

Noting others comments on the integrity of some of these web trackers I’d like to see an ATSB report reference on the mater.
I often hear references like this, however gps coordinates are still gps coordinates… they don’t corrupt. The data packets either arrive, or they don’t.

They are safe to use after the fact for historical purposes, however there are real-time delays induced when trying to use them live, like sharing traffic between EFB’s for example - you can’t rely on it.

Last edited by Squawk7700; 8th Sep 2022 at 03:25.
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