Originally Posted by
Lookleft
Given that the weather was conducive to VMC into IMC and that the photo of the wreckage showed a sudden impact and that VMC into IMC is not uncommon, I am intrigued as to why you would say its a very big call? I agree that to unequivocally state that it was the cause is premature but it is not a stretch to speculate that the accident was a result of VMC into IMC.
Speculate away… though until we get the ATSB report, that’s all it is.
I’ve flown around the area of the crash for over thirty years and noted there is rarely a consistent fog or cloud cover. You can be standing on the ground with 50 metre visibility and walk 100 metres and see to the distant hills. There are areas of ground humidity caused by the large water areas. The small hills causing their own micro climates, and the weather demarcation caused by the Brisbane ranges to the near east and the Great Divide to the near west are another factor. Some days flying above the fogs it looks like it is water flowing around the hills and valleys and with very sharply defined edges to the fog.
Anybody driving down the Brisbane valley highway can see the effect of driving in dense fog and suddenly coming out into sunshine. Whilst a car has no choice but to stay on track, an aircraft has the freedom to not stay ‘on the road’.
Just because some cameras thereabout show cloud etc, and a ground observer sees cloud etc, does not mean the accident aircraft were in IF.
Just to clarify, I get the impression that some think “scud running” is an illegal act. I always thought of it, and were under the impression, as it just meant you were not navigating on a defined track but navigating roughly in the direction you wish to go whilst navigating around cloud/fog/heavy rain areas whilst maintaining visual flight.
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