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Originally Posted by esscee
(Post 12017509)
Last time there was a full internet blackout 4 years ago, the "authorities" killed over 1500 people I hope that does not happen again. Will be big trouble.
Suspect various aircraft are being filled up with "loot" ready for the "top lot" to flee north. |
Emirates, Qatar and Turkish airlines have cancelled all flights into Teheran.
Countries which presumably have a close touch in what the situation is in the ground. |
My wife is Iranian and was back in the country until last week so she was able to leave before flights started to get cancelled. She didn't see anything different about these protests than other which have happened before, except that the Bazar owners seem to be taking a more central role. They have never protested before so the loss of their support wil hurt the Government more than most things the protesters can do, however that also means that the Government might be able to appease them with some targetted measures and separate them from from the rank and file on the streets.
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Glad to get a 'closer to the front' perspective. :ok:
But the prospects are rather grim, at the moment:
Foreign interference, particularly of a military sort, will (I suspect) hurt the anti regime movement more than help it. |
What "military" option would gain the most support from outside Iran, give max boost to the people in the streets protesting, and cause the most harm to the Regime without hurting the People?
My thought would to be 1) go after the cash cow of the regime...which is probably its sales of Oil and Gas. 2) Decapitate the leadership that is responsible for internal security. 3) install yet more economic sanctions on senior members of the Regime and seek out and seize any external holdings they have. Whatever done should not harm the people on the streets but do massive harm to the select few that are benefitting from their ill-gotten Gains. |
SASless, a decapitation strike takes quite a bit of inside assistance. I don't think that the juice is worth the squeeze.
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Solemani turned out well.
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Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 12018298)
Solemani turned out well.
Originally Posted by Sobelena
(Post 12019709)
'Help is on its way', Trump says
T28B Do you have any insider information as to what this "help" is? As we are in the Military Aviation forum, I'll take the hard to refute position that any help will involve air assets, and probably space based assets. Which may not be the kind of help that the people in Iran are looking for.
Originally Posted by Hangarless
...act quite decisively soon to help the protestors and stop the killing..
Originally Posted by WaPo
Iran’s government disconnected its 90 million people from the internet on Thursday, in a drastic effort to quell massive nationwide protests against the regime. The internet blackout extended to a partial jamming of the Starlink satellite service, which people in Iran have been using to circumvent official internet censorship, organize protests and communicate with the outside world.
Originally Posted by WaPo same article, further down
The issue was escalated internally to Musk at SpaceX over the weekend, with Musk saying he is fully on board with efforts to restore connectivity in Iran and green-lit his engineers to work on a solution, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door discussions.
“Starlink is pretty much the only way to connect, to send news out of the country,” said Mehdi Yahyanejad, co-founder of NetFreedom Pioneers, of the technology’s role for protesters in Iran. “It’s been very critical. All these videos and pictures that have come out in the past few days have been sent out through Starlink.” |
From what I understand (which is a very limited amount of information) SkyLink is jammed but Thuraya is not because that's what most of the regime use themselves. Thuraya is basically a 2G technology, phone and text, but that all the protestors need to co-ordinate their activities.
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Saudis have just made clear that no bases there can be used; nor will there be overflight through their airspace. Was in the car, not sure if any other gulf states have said the same.
CG |
We have restored this thread to the Military Aviation forum where it began, but I will remind you all that it is focused on the military activity.
Recent political unrest is covered here, in Jet Blast. https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/669...overnment.html |
Here we go again
We’re seeing the same pattern of events as we did in June 2025.
US and UK pulling some personnel from Qatar military base https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c701xywwxw8o I’d suggest it might be a little less performative and a bit more damaging this time around. Let’s just hope though that the number of incoming rockets do not outnumber the amount of patriots in and around Al Udeid. And let’s hope that the targets are all within the base. BV |
The U.S. Air Force’s evacuation of military aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base has begun in preparation of strikes against Iran, with a steady stream of at least 6 KC-135R/T “Stratotanker” Aerial-Refueling Tankers seen departing the base in Qatar. |
Some local experts ( ww have experience with bombing ) claim that decesion has been put forward to wing commanders so question of attack is just question of weather conditions.
So, what is the weather in the Gulf and over Teheran/ Iran? |
Trump just announcing from the Oval Office, with some caution, that the Iranians have agreed to stop firing on protestors and will not execute the protestors..
I pray that it is true. |
Iran just closed its Airspace...another traffic "hole" such as Ukraine and Venezuela...
Right now only two Mahan 340 flying... |
New NOTAM
Faytuks News @Faytuks Iran has extended its airspace closure NOTAM until 03:30 UTC (around 2 hours from now) |
Thank you for that update, as unhappy as it is.
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
(Post 12017556)
Weren't there reports from a day or two ago, that several Russian AF transport aircraft had arrived in Tehran, on the suspicion that gold and other 'items' were being shipped to Moscow in preparation for Khamenei bolting north with his family...?
Would he encourage its leaders to abandon the place, when whoever takes over might not be so supportive ? |
Weren't there reports from a day or two ago, that several Russian AF transport aircraft had arrived in Tehran, on the suspicion that gold and other 'items' were being shipped to Moscow in preparation for Khamenei bolting north with his family...? |
Anything else going on for a deployment this size?
Multiple KC-135R “Stratotanker” Aerial-Refueling Tankers with the U.S. Air Force have taken off from bases in California and Maine this afternoon heading east, preparing to cross the Atlantic towards Europe, with several destined for Morón Air Base in Spain. http://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.o...edddec7523.png This was wild to see today as two B2 bombers flew over Missouri hauling east! Two B-2’s spotted over Northern Illinois heading northeast today. I wonder what they’re practicing for⁉️ Significant movement of 12 F-15E's 🇺🇸 and supporting GOLD tankers towards the Middle East this morning, the F-15s from RAF Lakenheath The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG-3/ABECSG) turned off AIS overnight. Last known position puts her heading west out of Malacca into the Bay of Bengal/Indian Ocean. CSG-3 is on track to make CENTCOM by 22-23JAN26 & the N. Arabian Sea by 24JAN26. BREAKING: THE MIDDLE EAST IS BRACING FOR IMPACT The United States is rapidly assembling serious military firepower across the region — and all eyes are now on President Trump. According to multiple reports, Washington is building a posture that gives Trump maximum flexibility — from deterrence to full offensive strike options against Iran. Here’s what’s unfolding: The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has turned west from the Indo-Pacific and is now moving toward the Middle East 12 F-15 fighter jets have arrived in Jordan in the past 24 hours Additional air defense systems, aircraft, and naval assets are expected to deploy in the coming days This is not routine movement. |
Might help explain it.
BREAKING: Iran has conducted its first ICBM test, launching a missile with a 10,000 km range towards Siberia with Russia’s approval - Memri http://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.o...5611cc2e2b.png |
Several Eurofighter Typhoon FGR.4s with the No. 12 Squadron of the British Royal Air Force, based out of RAF Coningsby and operated jointly with ground and maintenance crewmembers from the Qatar Emiri Air Force, have been deployed to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar from RAF Akrotiri, amid escalating tensions with Iran. According to the U.K. Ministry of Defense, the deployment was at the request of the Qatari Government under the U.K.-Qatar Defence Assurance Agreement. Press release UK Joint Squadron deploys Typhoon jets to Qatar 12 Squadron begins deployment to the Gulf region reflecting the strong UK-Qatar defence partnership that helps to keep the UK secure at home and strong abroad The Royal Air Force’s joint Typhoon squadron with Qatar, 12 Squadron, has deployed to the Gulf for defensive purposes noting regional tensions as part of the UK-Qatar Defence Assurance Agreement, demonstrating the strong and enduring defence relationship between the UK and Qatar. 12 Squadron has regularly deployed to Qatar to conduct joint training and share experiences which enhance national and regional security. Recently, the RAF deployed on exercises such as EPIC SKIES and SOARING FALCON – further reinforcing the operational capability between our two nations. Defence Secretary, John Healey MP, said: Qatar and the UK are close partners with historic defence ties going back decades. This partnership bolsters the national security of both our nations and supports stability in the Gulf region. Today’s deployment builds on those shared aims as Typhoon jets from our joint squadron deploy to support its defence. Coming alongside our announcement of half a billion pounds investment to upgrade our Typhoons, this deployment is further demonstration of the crucial role of these jets in reinforcing global security. The deployment, upon invitation of the Qatari government, is in a defensive capacity and builds on the UK’s established defence partnership with Qatar and reflects the UK Government’s commitment to collaborating with international partners to maintain regional stability. The UK and Qatar share a long history of cooperation, particularly with flying training including both Hawk and Typhoon in the UK and this deployment highlights the importance of working alongside allies and partners to address shared security challenges. UK forces regularly operate alongside regional partners as part of established defence commitments, working collaboratively and actively to provide peace and stability in the region. 12 Squadron’s deployment is a testament to the UK’s commitment to our partners and to the wider stability of the region. Strong national security keeps the UK safe and working with international partners like Qatar supports plays a vital role in achieving this goal. By working together, the UK and its allies can better protect our shared interests which keep us secure at home and strong abroad. |
Politico:
Elsewhere in war: Donald Trump said overnight that the U.S. has sent an “armada” of warships toward Iran “just in case.” Reuters reports the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and several guided-missile destroyers will arrive in the Middle East in the coming days. The U.S. president said he hopes he won’t have to use them … but renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12025682)
Politico:
You appear to feel the need to tell us what we already know. It is common knowledge that the US is sending a bit of fire power to the area. |
If Trump were to engage in a massive aerial campaign over several months targeting all regime leadership, all IIRGC facilities and all their leadership, regular military and police facilities along with western special forces on the ground could it be enough to topple the regime? It would almost certainly end the nuclear programme for good. Going after all ballistic missile production facilities as well. If this is not enough then destroying key industrial/transport targets such as oil industry and ports. I feel if nothing is done the regime will remain in place and very likely end up with nukes.
There does seem to be a possible leader in waiting in Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. I certainly heard his name mentioned by Iranians in protest footage I have seen. |
Originally Posted by Ronald Reagan
(Post 12026138)
If Trump were to engage in a massive aerial campaign over several months targeting all regime leadership, all IIRGC facilities and all their leadership, regular military and police facilities along with western special forces on the ground could it be enough to topple the regime? It would almost certainly end the nuclear programme for good. Going after all ballistic missile production facilities as well. If this is not enough then destroying key industrial/transport targets such as oil industry and ports.
Personally, I'd like to see him tell Iran that - unless they stop killing the protesters - they're going to find many of their military bases suddenly missing. And carry through if they don't listen. |
Yes the US could destroy almost anything they want in Iran - but without boots onteh ground howare they going to get the regime they want? The Iranians may just put in a puppet and wait until Trump is no longer n power and then what do you have? A very large country with a burning sense of injustice and a desire for revenge at all costs. In 20 years time our kids & grandkids will be facing the costs
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Iran's supreme leader retreats underground, warned of likelihood of US airstrikes: report
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has gone underground, reportedly hiding out in a bunker out of fear of being wiped out by US airstrikes — as the USS Abraham Lincoln steams toward the Persian Gulf. The 86-year-old supreme leader has moved to a fortified shelter in Tehran connected to a series of elaborate underground tunnels after senior military officials warned of the increasing likelihood of an imminent US attack, Iran International reported, according to the Jerusalem Post. |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 12027164)
He sounds like he realises he's on his last legs, like that guy in Berlin 80 years ago. |
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/0...rmada-00751756
Trump threatens Iran with ‘massive Armada,’ ‘able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence’ President Donald Trump amped up pressure on Iran on Wednesday, highlighting a “massive Armada” recently deployed to the region to force Tehran to the bargaining table over a deal that would end its nuclear weapons program. The president’s social media post is the latest show of force in the international arena for a White House emboldened by a successful military operation in Caracas, Venezuela. “It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”…… “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for all parties,” he said. “Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ a major destruction of Iran.” “The next attack will be far worse!,” he continued. “Don’t make that happen again.” Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations linked Trump’s threat to previous American incursions in the Middle East. “Last time the U.S. blundered into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it squandered over $7 trillion and lost more than 7,000 American lives,” the mission wrote on X. “Iran stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests—BUT IF PUSHED, IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE!” |
I see that the war of words continues.
Where is Teddy Roosevelt when you need him? |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12028680)
Where is Teddy Roosevelt when you need him?
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12028680)
I see that the war of words continues.
Where is Teddy Roosevelt when you need him? |
At the risk of putting ideas into the Ayatollah's head, whatever happened to the threat of assymetric warfare?
Put simply, rather than threaten those US assets near to hand, why not threaten mainland USA? Given religious fanaticism and the promise of a slack handful of virgins, there are dozens of ways of shaking the mainland to the core. Even claiming to have poisoned water supplies or aircon [without lifting a finger to commit the act] might well cause panic and disruption. Wall Street, airports,rail and bus stations spring to mind. It would outflank the feel good of toting a pistol around town and make many Americans call for Trump to mind his own business and desist. |
Iran: Trump warns 'time is running out' for nuclear deal as US military builds up in Gulf - BBC News
All fun and games providing everything goes to plan. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12028826)
Iran: Trump warns 'time is running out' for nuclear deal as US military builds up in Gulf - BBC News
All fun and games providing everything goes to plan. |
Interesting to note that the earlier concern about the lives of demonstrators has gone out the window - perhaps because there was nothing that could be done about it - and the focus is back on the nuclear programme.
The ICBM test launch referenced at post #2582 above perhaps coming into sharper relevance…. https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...l#post12024751 |
Trump will churn up a lot of Iranian dirt, claim victory and everything goes back to as it was except that Trump, implying it would help the Iranian people previously has led to them rising up, the uprising subsequently being quashed and it's people killed.
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6 hours ago - should over or in the UK by now, depending where it's staging.
A U.S. Air Force WC-135R Constant Phoenix is now leaving CONUS for Europe and possibly onwards to the Middle East. They are commonly referred to as “nuke sniffers” due to their role detecting and identifying nuclear material in the atmosphere. |
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