|
The Ayatollah and his Foreign Minister do not appear to be reading from the same sheet.
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-foreig...damage-2091540 |
In response to a post by ORAC (Post 2346 in this thread) that discussed various people advising some sort of compromise with the Israeli's and the United States I made the following comment.....
ORAC's post re the apparent "splintering" of the upper echelons of the Iranian Government concerning strategy raises a very important issue. I watched a long interview of some long time CIA Analysts who spent their full career in the Iran Unit and one of the "Red Flags" they said to look for that might foreshadow either a revolt by the Iranian People or a takeover of the government by moderates would be what they described as "splintering" meaning higher ups who abandon, flee, challenge, or in a major way fall out with the Ayatollahs and their closest allies. They did not say what they thought "would" happen but merely opined that certain events were indicators of "possible" events. Are we beginning to see some "splintering" first mentioned by ORAC and added to by the information I offered? |
Fingers well and trully crossed !!
El. |
Originally Posted by El Grifo
(Post 11912214)
Fingers well and trully crossed !!
El. |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 11912210)
Are we beginning to see some "splintering" first mentioned by ORAC and added to by the information I offered?
|
I refer you to my post 2328… https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...l#post11909694
And, of course, as shown on IAF videos most, if not all, Iranian F-14s/F-4s/F-5s were destroyed using PGMs. ❗️🇮🇷Iran plans to purchase 🇨🇳Chinese J-10C fighters instead of 🇷🇺Russian Su-35S. Iran plans to purchase Chinese J-10C instead of Russian Su-35s — media Iran has intensified negotiations with China on the purchase of lightweight Chengdu J-10C multi-purpose fighters to replace the Russian Su-35. This is reported by The Moscow Times with reference to Khorasan. According to the publication, Iran intends to modernize its Air Force as soon as possible, and Chinese aircraft are considered an affordable and cheap alternative to the Russian Su-35. Iran has been interested in the J-10C for about two decades. In 2015, preparations for the conclusion of a contract for the supply of 150 fighters began, but the deal slipped. China insisted on payment in foreign currency, while Tehran, due to the shortage, offered a barter settlement of oil and gas. The UN arms embargo against the Islamic Republic also interfered. In 2020, these restrictions were lifted and negotiations resumed. The scale of the deal decreased to 36 aircraft, but the parties again failed to agree on payment. However, after the United States allowed China to officially buy oil from Iran on June 24 without the threat of sanctions, the situation changed. Although as of the beginning of 2025, the Iranian Air Force formally had about 150 fighters in service, these were mostly outdated American-made models that had reached the country before the Islamic Revolution of 1979. These include the F-4 Phantom II (64 units), the F-5E/F Tiger II (35) and the F-14A Tomcat (41). There are also 18 MiG-29A/UB, delivered in the late 1980s and early 1990s, in service. However, these aircraft are not only obsolete, but most of them are in an unsuitable condition. In particular, it is known that by the 2010s, the Iranian military carried out a series of modernizations and maintained about 15-20 F-14A Tomcat in operation. In 2022–2024, several F-14s were still recorded in the sky, but there were also reports of accidents. With an outdated aviation fleet, Iran relied heavily on anti-aircraft missile systems of its own production as the basis of air defense. However, as the events of the "twelve-day war" showed, Israel managed to completely suppress the Iranian air defense and feel free in the sky. Therefore, Iran's urgent desire to update its aviation fleet is natural, but simply purchasing a limited number of aircraft, even equipped with PL-15 long-range missiles, will not solve the problem of air defense. Plans to purchase Russian Su-35s by Iran were reported back in September 2022, and in January, an Iranian official confirmed information about the purchase of Su-35 fighters from Russia. According to the plan, they were to start arriving in the country in the spring of 2023, but no aircraft were handed over. In March 2025, it became known that the Su-35 fighters to be delivered to Iran were received by Algeria. |
Jobs for the boys
I guess we’ll see the advertisements for fast jet qualified instructor pilots in about 3-5 years then.
Let’s hope it pays well. BV |
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 11912422)
I guess we’ll see the advertisements for fast jet qualified instructor pilots in about 3-5 years then.
Let’s hope it pays well. BV |
No matter what Iran buys it is still going to be just another way of offering live fire target practice for the IDF and US Military should it become necessary again.
Look back to the Libyan experience of going up against the Professionals in the Gulf of Sidra.....wound up 2-0 in a matter of minutes. Then...you can look at the success of the Iraqi Air Force as well. |
The Chinese will be watching and learning.
|
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11912698)
The Chinese will be watching and learning.
|
…………..
Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi issued a fatwa labeling anyone who threatens Islamic leadership, including the Supreme Leader, as a “muharib” a status that under Islamic law that carries the death penalty. This ruling is a direct response to U.S. threats and targets President Trump. In the name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful It is clear that threatening the leader of the Islamic world, as well as the esteemed sources of emulation, is a war against Islam. According to the Quranic verse “Indeed, the penalty for those who wage war against God and His Messenger…”, this act carries a severe punishment. Strengthening the front of Muslims and the unity of Islamic ranks is an obligation. I consider it haram (forbidden) to remain silent in the face of such threats. It is necessary for Muslims around the world to strongly condemn these threats and to take appropriate and united action. May God preserve the Islamic community from the evil of enemies under the protection of the Imam of the Age (may God hasten his reappearance), and reward the righteous defenders. IRAN: A second grand Ayatollah, Noori Hamedani just issued a murder Fatwa against POTUS Trump. "Any insult to Ayatollah Khamenei is an insult to foundations of Islam... Any individual or state threatening or striking him, or anyone aiding the crime, is Mohareb [enemy of Allah]." https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....97aa992922.png Iran's main state daily Kayhan, which speaks for Supreme Leader Khamenei, wrote today that IAEA chief @rafaelmgrossi must be "EXECUTED" if he sets foot in Iran…. Quote: "We must officially announce that the moment he sets foot in Iran, he must be prosecuted and executed on the charge of spying for the Mossad and taking part in the murder of our country's oppressed people." - Kayhan, 28 June 2025.https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....219b3236c4.png |
Sounds to me like there are some folks not liking what their own Tea Leaves are telling them!
|
“Threatening the leader of the Islamic world.” Something lost in translation?
Iranian (and Iraqi) Shiites might respond emotionally to such a Fatwa, and possibly Hezbollah and the Houthis. Sunni Muslims throughout the Middle East might dispute such ‘leadership’ and will probably not feel the call. Just a guess. |
They think it’s all over…
I wouldn’t be so sure. And neither is the author of this article.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hu-forever-war BV |
What is going on with Iran is going to have some medium term ripple effects within the region. (Time magazine, author = H. A. Hellyer)
The Iran-Israel ceasefire seems to be holding. Arab capitals are relieved about the de-escalation. But they are also alarmed about what the latest flare up means for the Middle East.
This U-Turn is not due to any newfound trust in Tehran. The Arab Gulf states, broadly speaking, remain deeply cynical about the Iranian regime. If the Islamic Republic could be replaced with something more pragmatic and less ideologically driven than Khomeini’s revolutionary doctrine, few in the Arab Gulf would mourn. But this cynicism has evolved into a pragmatic rejection of war—especially one at the behest of a belligerent Israel and a complicit Washington. For these reasons, the overwhelming response in Arab capitals has been fierce opposition to Israel’s strikes, and America’s bombing on June 22. There are two core reasons for this opposition. First, these strikes are not happening in isolation. Over the past 20 months, Israel has waged a deadly and destructive campaign in Gaza following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, which has brought about a genocide case at the International Court of Justice. Israel has also expanded its military footprint beyond the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, amid the chaos following the ouster of Assad. And it has struck Beirut and parts of Lebanon repeatedly, including within the past week. In short, even among states that are highly critical of Iran, there are concerns about an unrestrained Israel. A vision of a new regional order where Israel behaves with impunity while dictating security norms to its neighbors is profoundly unwelcome to Arab states, including traditionally pro-Western Arab governments such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The second reason is more fundamental. For decades, Arab societies have criticized the West’s selective enforcement of international norms. That includes the 2003 Iraq war, Israel’s ongoing occupation in the West Bank and Gaza, and more recently the U.S. denunciation of the ICJ case and sanctioning of ICC judges after it issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders. There is a perception that powerful Western states shield Tel Aviv from consequences. To be sure, the Arab states are hardly models of legality themselves. Various U.N. reports have repeatedly described an undemocratic region rife with issues around corruption, nepotism, and closed civil society spaces. But the powerful Western countries that erected the “rules-based” order should be exemplar pillars of it—otherwise, trust in the project altogether collapses. That’s why the U.S. bombing of Iran—using the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the heaviest non-nuclear weapon in its arsenal—set a dangerous precedent. Despite the undeniable nature of Iran being a nefarious actor in the region, there was no imminent threat, no U.N. Security Council authorization, and no widespread international consensus to engage in such a military strike. The war between Iran and Israel is over, at least for now. Whether Iran’s nuclear program has been hobbled is a separate question, one that analysts and intelligence agencies will continue to assess in the weeks and months to come. But something else may have also ended. A new era is emerging in the region increasingly defined by a presumption that might equals right. The consequences of this have yet to be truly understood—but there are likely to be many repercussions indeed. |
VideoBREAKING:
Mass-casualty event in Tehran after a drone struck an IRGC meeting. Several people killed and wounded |
ORAC
It will be very interesting to see what kind of drone it was. And what was the point of origin.
BV |
It will be very interesting to see what kind of drone it was. And what was the point of origin. BV |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11914198)
Iranian media claiming it was an Israeli drone - but, then again, they would. Reports of heavy AA fire prior to the attack, so it wasn’t a small FPV. Military now down playing it saying it was just a drill.
Is this an "exercise gone wrong" or something like that? |
Intercepted call of Iranian officials downplays damage of U.S. attack
The officials were heard saying Trump’s strike on Iran proved less devastating than expected. The administration calls the intelligence insignificant. The United States obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing this month’s U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and remarking that the attack was less devastating than they had expected, said four people familiar with the classified intelligence circulating within the U.S. government. The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes directed by President Donald Trump were not as destructive and extensive as they had anticipated, these people said. Like some others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. |
Dictators generally don’t want to hear the truth so I would expect any internal Iranian communication upwards to minimize the damage just as the leaked US internal messaging seems slanted towards maximizing the damage.
|
The current president of Iran is considered, in the context of Iranian politics, to be a moderate. Interesting that he's the one chosen to deliver this message.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a law suspending his country's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, state media outlet Tasnim has reported. Iran's parliament had voted to suspend cooperation previously. "We are aware of these reports," an IAEA spokesman told Newsweek. "The IAEA is awaiting further official information from Iran." Iran could use the suspension of IAEA cooperation as leverage in future negotiations on its nuclear program, though no talks are currently due after Tehran rejected President Donald Trump's offer to restart diplomacy immediately on the issue. The Iranian foreign ministry had earlier warned that it was unrealistic for the IAEA to expect a return to normal cooperation so soon after the strikes by the U.S. and Israel, and that it could not guarantee the safety and security of nuclear inspectors. |
Iran and the IAEA
It will be interesting to see what the USA say about this move. Bearing in mind their friend in the region never signed up to it in the first place.
I thought Donald was going to bring peace to the region. It seems it is edging ever closer to all out war. BV |
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 11914819)
I thought Donald was going to bring peace to the region.
If you choose to buy his hyperbole, that's on you. ;) Pakistan was, IIRC, not a signatory to the NPT. Maybe that's the best posture to take. |
BV
Can see a continuation of the limited war of the past month, Iran+ proxies, Israel and the US. What other players do you see stepping up to bat? |
WC
It’s hard to say. My main concern is that last week Netanyahu decided he couldn’t wait to bomb Iran based on intelligence that only he had. Now there is independently verified intelligence that suggests Iran actually will have a bomb soon. Surely, by his logic, he is actually duty bound to do something this time?!
BV |
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 11914880)
It’s hard to say. My main concern is that last week Netanyahu decided he couldn’t wait to bomb Iran based on intelligence that only he had. Now there is independently verified intelligence that suggests Iran actually will have a bomb soon. Surely, by his logic, he is actually duty bound to do something this time?!
BV |
Bob V, what I think has the Iranians concerned - beyond the harm done to their national air defense system of late - is that the more this "didn't really break that much stuff" narrative expands it may goad Pres Trump into sending another raid into Iran to (among other things) make the rubble bounce or take out additional infrastructure that is expensive to replace.
And I think that Bibi may be counting on that. (That's cynical old me thinking that). |
LW50
My thoughts entirely. Netanyahu is after any excuse and will gladly cheerlead from the sidelines if Uncle Donald launches another wave. I wonder if any retaliation would be directed at the same target as last time.
BV |
LW: As already touched upon by Avman in post 2422
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A forever war with Iran, has consequences for Ukraine's access to Patriot stocks.
|
Originally Posted by petit plateau
(Post 11915096)
A forever war with Iran, has consequences for Ukraine's access to Patriot stocks.
|
What happens now?
The US - Trump, repeats previous mistakes of intervention; the use of military power but, miscalculating or failing to plan ahead.
What happens now? "The war of 2025 did not produce peace. It produced recalibration. Israel emerges militarily capable but politically shaken and economically strained. Iran, though damaged, stands more unified, with fewer international constraints on its nuclear ambitions. Its crackdown on dissent, withdrawal from IAEA oversight, and deepening ties to rival powers suggest a regime preparing not for collapse, but for survival, perhaps even confrontation." "Regime change cannot be engineered through precision strikes. Tactical brilliance does not guarantee strategic victory. And the assumption that Iran could unravel like Syria was not strategy, it was hubris. Both sides now better understand each other’s strengths and limits, a clarity that could deter future war – or make the next one more dangerous. In a region shaped by trauma and shifting power, mistaking resistance for weakness or pause for peace remains the gravest miscalculation." https://theconversation.com/the-us-a...ampaign=Latest from The Conversation for July 2 2025 - 3436235003&utm_content=Latest from The Conversation for July 2 2025 - |
Update on Fordow Damage Assessment
The geology now seems to be granite - a much tougher nut to crack than limestone / dolomite. Nonetheless the volume of shattered rock is likely immense. Comments on the video point out that facility damage depends on whether ventilation tunnels give a straight shot or are offset enough to mitigate damage. Wouldn't be surprised if Mossad supplied plans to Pentagon. Bunker designers henceforth will be well advised to route ventilation shafts away from vulnerable areas. Also informative comments from ex-military on fusing strategies. |
If Iran gets the bomb won't that make the region safer?
With the bomb no one can bomb anyone. A stalemate will ensue. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 11916888)
If Iran gets the bomb won't that make the region safer?
With the bomb no one can bomb anyone. A stalemate will ensue. |
They haven't nuked each other yet, so maybe they did get the memo?
|
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 11916888)
With the bomb no one can bomb anyone. A stalemate will ensue.
|
Originally Posted by Coupez
(Post 11917072)
This only applies if both sides are rational actors who are not seeking the end of the world.
When Alabama gets the bomb!" - Tom Lehrer, Who's Next? |
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