Lebanon is a failed state.
Back to Iran:

Have to wonder just how big a conventional attack Israel might be capable of. Pinpoint targeting of Iran’s AD is one thing, truly taking Iran out of the nuclear game would take sustained attacks over the course of days/weeks. That I think that would require the US as well. I hope we don’t find out. If we do however, screw the pottery barn rule, run far away as fast as possible when done.

With nerves strung tight, and Iran expecting an attack every night, as per LW50's quote above, let us hope that they can distinguish airliners correctly this time around.

Fox News:

Trump says 'something's going to happen very soon' with Iran as he pushes to negotiate nuclear deal

President Donald Trump signaled that a nuclear deal with Iran could emerge in the near future, just over a month after his administration reinstated a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran.

Trump on Friday told reporters that the U.S. is "down to the final moments" negotiating with Iran, and that he hoped military intervention would prove unnecessary.

"It’s an interesting time in the history of the world. But we have a situation with Iran that something is going to happen very soon, very, very soon," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

"You’ll be talking about that pretty soon, I guess. Hopefully, we can have a peace deal. I’m not speaking out of strength or weakness, I’m just saying I’d rather see a peace deal than the other. But the other will solve the problem."

Trump revealed he sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pushing for Tehran to agree to a nuclear agreement — or face military consequences, according to a clip released Friday from an interview with FOX Business that is set to air Sunday.

Soooooooo……….seems Iran has told AO to go pound salt on his “do as I say or else” utterance. Gee what a surprise.

Think I’m gonna need more popcorn.

The president of Iran made some comments in the media recently about working to recover form the current recession. They seem to be having trouble selling their petroleum products at the moment. His finance minister recently resigned.
He is open to some engagement with the US, but apparently, the Grand Ayatollah isn't keen on it.
Puts the president of Iran in a tough spot.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-wont-ease-it

Iran is riven with conflict. Donald Trump’s offer of talks won’t ease it

With internal politics at their most unstable for years, the risk of escalation is rising


https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-...ty-2025-03-09/

Trump administration ends Iraq's waiver to buy Iranian electricity

WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - The Trump administration rescinded a waiver on Saturday that had allowed Iraq to pay Iran for electricity, as part of President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran, a State Department spokesperson said.

The decision to let Iraq's waiver lapse upon its expiration "ensures we do not allow Iran any degree of economic or financial relief," the spokesperson said, adding that Trump's campaign on Iran aims "to end its nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program and stop it from supporting terrorist groups."……

For Iraq, the end of the waiver "presents temporary operational challenges," said Farhad Alaaeldin, foreign affairs adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

"The government is actively working on alternatives to sustain electricity supply and mitigate any potential disruptions," Alaaeldin told Reuters. "Strengthening energy security remains a national priority, and efforts to enhance domestic production, improve grid efficiency and invest in new technologies will continue at full pace."……

​​​​​​​"Iraq’s energy transition provides opportunities for U.S. companies, which are world-leading experts in increasing the productivity of power plants, improving electricity grids, and developing electricity interconnections with reliable partners," the State Department spokesperson said.….

Payments will be routed via Dubai instead no doubt......................

With a bit skimmed off the top ...

Trump: “Hold my coat”…….

https://www.reuters.com/world/irans-...nt-2025-03-11/

Iran's President to Trump: I will not negotiate, 'do whatever the hell you want'


March 11 (Reuters) - President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would not negotiate with the U.S. while being threatened, telling President Donald Trump to "do whatever the hell you want", Iranian state media reported on Tuesday.

"It is unacceptable for us that they (the U.S.) give orders and make threats. I won’t even negotiate with you. Do whatever the hell you want", state media quoted Pezeshkian as saying.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations, a day after Trump said he had sent a letter urging Iran to engage in talks on a new nuclear deal.….

If memory serves, Israel disabled most of Iran's air defenses rather easily a few months back (in retaliation for a large-scale missile/drone attack).
Iran might be well served to remember that...

Top Gun Maverick fiction may be becoming fact...

I don't get the idea that Mr Trump wants to start "a foreign war" - if his first term is any indication of his aims now.
He likes to threaten and bluster, though, in hopes of that leading to some kind of deal.
Iran's president has basically told him "we see through you, not buying your BS" or something like that.

On the other hand, it was during Trump's first term that Soleimani got taken out.
He will occasionally lash out.

I'm not sure if Trump's unpredictability is a positive or a negative with regard to this situation - but it's certainly something that other world leaders need to take into account.

I'm sure the Iranians are happy to let things drift while the Ukraine gets all the attention.

They know they can "make an offer" if Trump turns his baleful eye in their direction - a resort, perhaps some minerals, ditch one of their "allies" like the lunatic Houthis.............. and of course, Trump may fall out with Netanyahu sooner or later - he falls out with everyone eventually. And Israel gets a lot of "freebies" from the USA

And it unquestionably damages trust in the US as an ally. Where will US allies be when circumstances require them as they did in the Gulf War?

I always thought that was a political need rather than a military one........... but , yes, trust is evaporating very quickly

VideoIranian leader Khamenei: No talks with the U.S.; Iran will pursue nukes if it chooses—sanctions won’t work.

That rather narrows down the next course of action.

The war of words continues.
They would say that, regardless of whether or not there is any truth to that claim.
That's a lot of talk. Do you think they take you seriously?

Salami is pulling a Trump: he's talking real big because he thinks he needs to. I doubt he grasps the irony of his position. I also find it amusing that an Iranian leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is named for a pork filled sausage.

As to Iran's move toward more nukes: nobody with a brain ever doubted that they'd keep working on that program, making progress. Anyone who thought the 2015 deal would stop that, be they on my side of the pond or on the eastern side of the pond, was and remains a naive fool.

The noise will continue, giving the chattering classes something to talk about.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d9c6daf69b.png

Who do you believe when neither tells the truth! Oh my.

Neither one. Was this an attempt at a trick question?
(Mind you, Iran is involved, but I'd not rely on DJT as my source for that).

Delivered 2 weeks ago, so just over 6 weeks to go.....

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/19/tru...n-nuclear-deal

Scoop: Trump's letter to Iran included 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal

President Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei included a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal, one U.S. official and two sources briefed on the letter told Axios.

Why it matters: It isn't clear whether the two month-clock begins from the time the letter was delivered or from when negotiations start. But if Iran rejects Trump's outreach and doesn'tnegotiate, the chances of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities would dramatically increase.

The big picture: Iran's nuclear program has advanced over the past four years and it is closer than ever to producing a nuclear weapon.
n

• Its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is enough for six nuclear bombs if enriched to 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
• Iran has denied it is pursuing nuclear weapons.

Catch up quick: Two weeks ago in an interview with Fox News' Maria Bartiromo, Trump revealed that he sent a letter to the Iranian leader proposing direct negotiations.
n

• A day later Trump said the U.S. is "down to the final moments" with Iran.
• "We can't let them have a nuclear weapon. Something is going to happen very soon. I would rather have a peace deal than the other option but the other option will solve the problem," he said.
• The letter was delivered a few days ago by Trump envoy Steve Witkoff to the president of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) in a meeting in Abu Dhabi.
• A day later, MBZ's envoy Anwar Gargash travelled to Tehran and gave the letter to the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Behind the scenes: The sources said Trump's letter to Khamenei was "tough." On the one hand, it proposed negotiations on a new nuclear deal, but on the other hand warned of consequences if Iran rejects the offer and continues to push forward with its nuclear program.
n

• Trump said in the letter that he doesn't want open-ended negotiations and mentioned a two-month period for getting a deal, two sources said.
• Before the letter was delivered to the Iranians, the White House briefed several U.S. allies including Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE about its contents, a U.S. official and a source with knowledge told Axios.
• The White House declined to comment. The Iranian mission to the UN did not respond to requests for comment.

What they're saying: Last week Iran's leader Khamenei called Trump's letter and his proposal for negotiations "a deception" that is only meant to create the impression that Iran refuses to negotiate.
n

• Khamenei said he didn't support negotiations with the U.S. but several hours later the Iranian mission to the UN issued a statement on X and didn't rule out negotiations between Iran and the U.S. over the nuclear program.

• "If the objective of negotiations is to address concerns vis-à-vis any potential militarization of Iran's nuclear program, such discussions may be subject to consideration," it said in the statement.
• The Iranian mission to the UN added however that if the aim of the talks is "the dismantlement of Iran's peaceful nuclear program to claim that what Obama failed to achieve has now been accomplished, such negotiations will never take place."

What to watch: Iran's foreign ministry said in a briefing with reporters earlier this week that Trump's letter is still being studied and Iran's response is being drafted.
n

• Trump said on Monday that the U.S. will consider any further attacks by the Houthis in Yemen as emanating from Iran and threatened the Iranian government with "dire consequences." Iran has said it doesn't control the Houthis.
• In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump said there are reports that Iran is reducing its military support for the Houthis but "they are still sending large levels of Supplies." He reiterated his call for Iran to stop supplying the Houthis.
• Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday that Iran needs to "hand over and give up" all elements of its nuclear program including missiles, weaponization and enrichment of uranium "or they can face a whole series of other consequences," adding that "Iran has been offered a way out of this."

Another Party heard from:
Mr Ma Tong, you can want in one hand and defecate in the other.
See which one fills up first.

Looks like W was wrong. The Axis of Evil was Norkors, Iran, and Russia all along. :}

3 x B-2s in Diego Garcia, another 4 reported to be airborne en-route to join them.

According to Open Source intelligence, four additional B-2 stealth bombers are en route to Diego Garcia, bringing the total to seven—a record deployment.

The island, about 3,500–4,000 km from the Middle East, serves as a key launch point for U.S. bombers with aerial refueling support.

https://www.twz.com/air/signs-u-s-ma...n-diego-garcia

Signs U.S. Massing B-2 Spirit Bombers In Diego Garcia

A significant force of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers looks to be currently wending its way to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery shows at least three C-17 cargo planes and 10 aerial refueling tankers forward-deployed in the last 48 hours to the highly strategic British territory, which has been used as a staging point for U.S. strikes in the Middle East on multiple occasions in the past.

The build-up comes amid a new surge in U.S. strikes targeting the Houthis and growing warnings to Iran from the Trump administration over support for the Yemeni militants and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The crews of two B-2 bombers, callsigns Pitch 11 and Pitch 14, could be heard communicating with air traffic controllers in Australia earlier today in publicly available audio. The crew of Pitch 11 confirms the presence of a third bomber, as well. The trio of bombers appears to have refueled in flight over Australia while heading westward.

A fourth B-2, callsign Pitch 13, landed at Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii yesterday after declaring an emergency in flight. Video subsequently emerged showing that aircraft being met on the ground by a crash truck, but the nature of the emergency remains unknown.

Additional air traffic control recordings indicate that additional B-2s, using the callsign Abba, departed Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri earlier today also bound for Diego Garcia. The Air Force’s entire force of 20 B-2 bombers is based at Whiteman.…..

BREAKING: U.S. Shuts Down Diego Garcia Airbase Until May 2025, Signaling Major Iran Operation

The United States has issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) for its Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean, closing it to regular operations until May 1, 2025.

The extended closure points to a prolonged deployment of substantial air forces over the next two months.

Analysts suggest the U.S. is gearing up for a significant move, with preparations clearly aimed at confronting Iran.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ed413ce340.png
​​​​​​​

"Trump's letter to Iran included 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal"

Hmmm - they can probably breakout their new A bomb in that time.................. :(

Perhaps but can it be mated to a delivery vehicle? I know they have/had lots of missiles, but are they capable of lofting a first gen nuclear weapon towards what they perceive to be a threat? Only they know for sure.

Everyone assumes that they don't have a nuclear at the moment - an unwise assumption. They could have a dirty bomb or have acquired a low yield tactical weapon from a state that wants money, oil or another trade. If the IRGC are cornered or might lose their power and control over the populace, they are capable of anything. Most likely target would be a US carrier group but then hell would be let lose upon them and the middle east.

Has this been thought through?
If the US unleashes a wave of strikes on Iran, what then? It will only strengthen Iranian resolve and I suspect you will see major retaliation on those states in the Middle East that are seen as friends of the US and the closure of the Gulf to shipping. Does POTUS have a plan that goes beyond stage 1?

Why would Iran target a US carrier group? My guess is that they would target Israel. Who would retaliate. Who else joins the fray?

Never mind stage 1.

You are joking aren't you?

I would suspect a strike should it occur would be due to Iran approaching some threshold on the development of a nuke.

I would think Israel would be a logical target as well. Not sure hitting a CBG is that easy. The USN has put a lot of thought towards countering carrier killer missiles of late.

They would not strike Israel. Shipping (particularly tankers) in Hormuz would be the logical response. Saudi oil fields would also be on the escalation ladder, though this would likely be held in reserve.

No doubt a pretext will be found, but that is not the point. As folk are fond of pointing out, decisions have consequences. Has the US considered the consequences?

On a separate tack, there are many countries now that have a nuclear capability that are hostile to the US and with a more developed capability, so why Iran but not DPRNK for example. The US says it does not want to be world policeman but this smacks of that.

You know the answer to that.

With absolutely no expertise in the field, my understanding is that developing a basic bomb is actually relatively easy - and comparatively cheap.
The really hard part is miniaturising it into a reliable and robust vehicle that can survive re-entry and detonate - in the case of an ICBM.
Cruise missiles, SRBMs, hypersonic glide vehicles and gravity bombs also require miniaturisation.

Do as we say, not as we do.
In the past Iran has proposed a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East but developments elsewhere in the area pushed them down the path of deterrence instead.