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Aa old serbian saying : There is no war- without Germans. 🤣😜
Now, it becomes serious. |
Iran are threatening Trumps life. He killed their leader, they will retaliate in kind.
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Originally Posted by TEEEJ
(Post 12048902)
Since the start of the conflict a possibly joint US/Israeli Number Station has appeared on shortwave. Such a Number Station will be used to send messages to anti-Iranian regime groups/agents. It took a while for the Iranians to act on the transmissions and they are now jamming the frequencies. The Iranians are using the same bubble jammers as they use against news radio stations beamed into Iran.
The Iranians are currently playing Whack-a-Mole trying to jam the number station frequencies Ok, let's be more helpful - here's the link. Twente SDR |
Originally Posted by TWT
(Post 12048851)
If 'the internet' is cutoff a VPN won't help you. Internet access is controlled by telcos, they can disconnect their
networks at will. In this case, on the orders of the government or IRGC. You access a VPN by downloading the relevant app and paying for the subscription. VPN subscriptions are expensive anywhere, not just in Iran. |
From the New York Times
Live Updates: Iran Says It’s Close to Naming New Supreme Leader as Attacks on Infrastructure Grow Iranian state media reported that top clerics were finalizing their decision on a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel and Iran appeared to be ramping up attacks on infrastructure targets. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12048946)
From the New York Times
I wonder how expensive the life insurance premium has become for someone in that position. I’m sure Vegas is/will quickly set up an over/under pool on life expectancy of said bomb magnet. |
he heh, well now, do not forget we are dealing with a theocracy form of govmnt, not a typical authoritarian or dictatorship or even
royalty type thing. Its true believers have demonstrated suicide attacks, so if the new leader is of the ultimate faith, life insurance may not be a player except if bought by a distant cousin, maybe of lesser faith. Gums sends... |
The Times:
Iran signals Ayatollah’s son will be new supreme leader in blow to peace The reported appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s next supreme leader signals that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains its iron grip over the country, dashing hopes of accommodation with the West. The apparent elevation of Khamenei, 56, points to the promotion of securitarianism over clerical authority, making the regime’s acceptance of President Trump’s demands ever more unlikely. The second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is well versed in the business of internal repression, having taken control of the Basij, the Revolutionary Guard’s volunteer militia, during the 2009 anti-government protests which ended the reformist Green Movement and what existed of mainstream opposition within Iran. Critically, his ascension would solidify Iran’s intentions not to bow to western demands, signalling the grip the Guards enjoy and heralding an increasingly militarised future for the regime. His election would also indicate continuity with his father’s rule despite undermining a key pillar of the 1979 Islamic revolution: the rejection of the hereditary principle of monarchy that the overthrow of the Shah embodied. Opposition to the hereditary principle has been a key factor in justifying the concentration of powers akin to an absolute monarchy in the hands of one individual. The late Ali Khamenei argued that one of the revolution’s greatest achievements “was the destruction of a structure which was based on a cruel and unreasonable hereditary monarchy”. “This old and derelict structure was a wrong and unreasonable tradition that dominated our country for several thousand years,” he argued. But with the regime in survival mode, the calculus has changed to choosing as supreme leader an individual who, if lacking in high-level theological qualifications, could continue the republic’s self-defining resistance to the West.…. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12048946)
From the New York Times
I wonder how expensive the life insurance premium has become for someone in that position. I wonder how many days/minutes Mojtaba Khamenei has left on Planet Earth… |
D Tel this evening has crude at $111 barrel and likely much more.
Surely at these prices the tankers will be incentivised to dare the Hormuz run? At some stage greed overcomes caution. Meanwhile fill your car and fix a price with your fuel provider if a deal is still available. |
Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12048963)
he heh, well now, do not forget we are dealing with a theocracy form of govmnt, not a typical authoritarian or dictatorship or even
royalty type thing. Its true believers have demonstrated suicide attacks, so if the new leader is of the ultimate faith, life insurance may not be a player except if bought by a distant cousin, maybe of lesser faith. Gums sends... |
It is widely reported that more than 200 tankers (non-sanctioned) are now at anchor either side of the straits of Hormuz. There are few, if any, reports of those vessels being targeted by the Iranians. Does this infer that the prosecution of targets (launch sites, storage/manufacturing facilities etc) from the air has been largely successful?
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Only one country in this conflict has a theocracy form of government. But this one seems to be the only goverment whereby the religion RULES absolutely, and has sworn to eliminate all the rest of us, even if it perishes doing so.
I have flown with and learned with and taught pilots of their religion. But the version now implemented in this one country that the world now deals with is a singular unpleasant, diabolical mutation. A crying shame. I never encountered that attitude in any of my dealings with those folks. Not even close. But it now exists and the world must deal with it. It's the reason we even have this debacle, as its leadership wishes to extinguish all the "infidels" on this planet and that includes most of us here. Gums sends.. |
Originally Posted by Canary Boy
(Post 12049047)
It is widely reported that more than 200 tankers (non-sanctioned) are now at anchor either side of the straits of Hormuz. There are few, if any, reports of those vessels being targeted by the Iranians. Does this infer that the prosecution of targets (launch sites, storage/manufacturing facilities etc) from the air has been largely successful?
A fella from Lloyds of London said its likely additional insurance would be required if the US Navy escorted them through, for fairly obvious reasons. On which note i did read that the Iranians were goading the USN to try and make a run through the Straights. |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 12048934)
Iran are threatening Trumps life. He killed their leader, they will retaliate in kind.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 12048934)
Iran are threatening Trumps life. He killed their leader, they will retaliate in kind.
|
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12049154)
No insurance no saily. Until the details become clear, those ships ain't going anywhere.
A fella from Lloyds of London said its likely additional insurance would be required if the US Navy escorted them through,.............. If the Israeli/USA coalition destroys the Iranian's oil industry then they might decide that as they can't export their oil to China then they might as well mine the Strait of Hormuz. |
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Video An Iranian attack drone hit the BAPCO refinery in Bahrain this morning, starting a large fire. |
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Satellite imagery shows multiple destroyed buildings at Badr Air Force base, Esfahan in Iran. Use the slider to compare here: http://tinyurl.com/y9fny9u2 |
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BREAKING: A Chinese AI startup called MizarVision is publishing high-resolution satellite imagery of every US military base, every carrier strike group, every F-22 deployment, every THAAD battery, and every Patriot missile position in the Middle East. Labelled. Geolocated. AI-annotated. Updated in near-realtime. Shared by PLA-linked accounts and Chinese state media to an audience of billions. The first major release came on 20 February, eight days before Operation Epic Fury began. MizarVision published images showing US aircraft transfers to Ovda Airbase in southern Israel, fighter deployments across Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and naval buildups in the Arabian Sea. By 1 March, the releases had expanded to include detailed imagery of bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, with AI labelling identifying specific aircraft types, air defence configurations, and troop concentrations. One release catalogued approximately 2,500 individual US military assets across the region. The imagery comes from two sources. The first is China’s Jilin-1 satellite constellation, a network of over 100 commercial Earth observation satellites operated by Chang Guang Satellite Technology, whose data is used by the PLA. A majority of Jilin-1 satellites are dedicated to regional imaging with sub-metre resolution, capable of identifying individual aircraft on tarmacs and distinguishing between THAAD and Patriot battery configurations from orbit. The second source is commercially available Western satellite data from providers like Maxar and Airbus, which MizarVision aggregates, processes through proprietary AI models for automatic target recognition, and republishes with military-grade labelling that transforms raw imagery into actionable intelligence products. The Pentagon has downplayed the releases as “open-source.” This framing misses the point entirely. The value of MizarVision’s output is not the raw satellite image. Any government can purchase commercial satellite passes. The value is the AI processing layer that converts terabytes of imagery into labelled, searchable, cross-referenced intelligence products at a speed and scale that previously required the resources of a national intelligence agency. MizarVision is democratising military surveillance and publishing the output on social media where Iran’s 31 autonomous IRGC provincial commands can access it from a mobile phone. No direct evidence confirms classified data transmission from Beijing to Tehran. But the distinction between “classified” and “publicly shared AI-processed satellite intelligence identifying every US military asset in the Middle East by type, location, and configuration” is a distinction without a meaningful difference to a provincial IRGC commander selecting his next target. The strategic implications extend far beyond this conflict. In the 2022 Ukraine war, Maxar’s commercial satellite imagery aided Kyiv by exposing Russian deployments. The West celebrated it as the democratisation of intelligence. China has now executed the identical playbook in reverse: a nominally commercial firm, with documented PLA data-sharing arrangements, publishing intelligence products that expose American deployments during an active war. The precedent is set. Commercial satellite intelligence is now a weapon of great-power competition deployed through AI startups with plausible commercial deniability. MizarVision has fewer than 200 employees. Its AI models run on commercially available hardware. Its satellite data comes from constellations any nation can build. And it has just demonstrated the capability to map every US military asset across an entire theatre of war and publish the results on the open internet before the first bomb falls. The next war will not begin with a missile launch. It will begin with an AI model labelling every target from orbit..... |
Sheikh @Jaberrajabii, who defected from the Iranian regime, is one of the few people to know Mojtaba Khamenei personally & spoke about him publicly. In this interview in Arabic he describes him as: * A messianic extremist who believes himself to be the mythical Khorassani figure, who would pave the way for the emergence of the Mehdi (Messiah figure in Islam). * Racist toward Arabs, unlike his father. * Extremely brutal and believes that the ends justify any means. * Corrupt & rich (confirming reports published about his assets, for example by Bloomberg* Interview: https://youtu.be/BivYuF2nPtY?si=aMVca3kTjmRjpUA6 How the Son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Built a Global Property Empire |
Who saw this coming? Anyone familiar with the region, that's who. Anyone and everyone who works on the Joint Staff planning and ops cells has some experience with what went on in Iraq from about 2005 to present. This was a known risk.
The war in the Middle East is pushing the U.S. military back into combat in Iraq against an old foe—Iran-backed militia groups that two decades ago battled American troops on the streets of Baghdad. Iraqi militias have attempted dozens of small-scale drone and rocket attacks since the war began in a show of support for Tehran, including against a U.S. military base and consulate in northern Iraq and a State Department facility at the Baghdad International Airport. On Saturday, rockets targeted the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, which Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called a “terrorist act” by “rogue groups.” The U.S. said Sunday it has been carrying out attacks against the militias, acknowledging that the war in Iran is spilling over into neighboring Iraq and drawing American forces back into a place where they spent years fighting insurgents and endured heavy casualties after the 2003 invasion that deposed Saddam Hussein. “We have conducted operations in Iraq as part of Operation Epic Fury, but it’s in defense of U.S. troops as they’ve come under attack by Iran-aligned militia groups,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the region. Epic Fury is the operation name for the Iran campaign. The tactics are a significant shift for the Pentagon, which has mostly avoided targeting Iraqi militias in recent years, seeking to disengage from a painful conflict once and for all. Iraqi officials say there have been multiple airstrikes apparently by U.S. warplanes on militia strongholds, including at bases near the towns of Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad, and al-Qaim, along the Iraqi-Syria border. Both locations have been used for years as depots for weapons supplied by Iran and to launch attacks at U.S. bases in Syria and Jordan. Also, this has been making the rounds. Add grains of salt as needed. |
Copying Russia.....
https://archive.is/20260309075350/ht...m-bots-4281573 Iran hires European criminals to work as spies via Telegram bots Tehran-linked channels advertise paid assignments for surveillance and other tasks, raising concerns about a growing 'gig-economy' espionage model across Europe Iran is recruiting a network of “gig-economy” spies across Europe through Telegram channels offering cash payments for surveillance and other tasks, UK security sources warn. Using encrypted messaging apps and cash incentives, Iranian intelligence is seeking to enlist people from across the continent to carry out surveillance operations and potentially violent attacks, including assassinations, The i Paper can reveal. Channels on the messaging platform Telegram openly advertise “jobs” with Iran’s intelligence agency in a recruitment drive mirroring techniques used by Russian intelligence. The methods have raised concerns among counterterrorism officials that Tehran is increasingly outsourcing espionage and hostile operations to loosely connected proxies and criminals. “They will literally hire anyone to commit arson, criminal damage, assault,” a Whitehall counter-terror source said, noting a “trend” whereby “professional criminals are recruited for the more sophisticated operations”. One channel on the platform, which security officials believe is linked to Iranian intelligence, uses an automated Telegram bot to invite users to “work with Iranian intelligence in a tested, safe environment”. Posts from the bot claim Tehran’s intelligence agencies recruit operatives “from all over the world regardless of incentives”. Another message urges members to “join us” and not “let your hidden talents and abilities go to waste”........ |
Iranian kamikaze drones struck the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE, with significant fires visible on NASA’s FIRMS heat map. |
Pretty impressive, seems they were picking out individual airframes - though I suspect the others unfortunate to be in proximity probably received shrapnel damage.
Before/after slideshow. Israeli Air Force struck Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, destroying 16 aircraft linked to the IRGC’s Quds Force. The planes were reportedly used to transport weapons and funds to Iranian proxy groups like Hezbollah, making them a high value target in the war. |
I think somone is having us on, even a quick look at the before and after photos reveals that the 2 x 747's had 3 engines between them. Did they really waste munitions on junkers?
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Further to post 3544 above, https://www.pprune.org/12049255-post3544.html reference the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone...
Attack near Fujairah oil terminal disrupts bunker operations An attack near the Fujairah oil storage area has added fresh uncertainty to the regional bunker market as tensions in the Gulf continue to escalate. According to industry sources, product loading at the Fujairah Oil Tanker Terminal (FOTT) has been halted. Initial reports indicate significant damage to key infrastructure, with Manifold 1 — supplying berths 1, 2 and 7 — reportedly inoperable. Manifold 2 serves berths 8, 9 and VLCC berths, but several terminals are not connected to it, leaving large parts of the port currently unable to load or discharge cargo. Fujairah is the third-largest bunker port in the world, meaning disruptions could have broader implications for regional marine fuel supply. Watch the #MarineTraffic playback of vessel activity at the Port of Fujairah over the past week. |
NATO air and missile defense forces neutralized an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkey earlier today that was likely heading for Incirlik Air Base. |
I read in todays Telegraph that in the RN fleet of ships not available to escort either of the two unserviceable aircraft carriers to the Med, there is HMS Sutherland which is "regenerating"!
Does this mean that it is part of "The Borg" fleet from Star Trek? Anybody enlighten me as to what "regenerating" in navy speak means? Or is it just another newspaper mis-print? |
I thought they’d already sunk the entire surface fleet?
Video Footage of the American airstrike that destroyed another Iranian IRGC Navy Soleimani-class corvette off the coast of Bandar Abbas today. |
BBC reporting a military helicopter down with 2 fatalities in the UAE. Not many details yet.
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Originally Posted by Compass Call
(Post 12049300)
I read in todays Telegraph that in the RN fleet of ships not available to escort either of the two unserviceable aircraft carriers to the Med, there is HMS Sutherland which is "regenerating"!
Does this mean that it is part of "The Borg" fleet from Star Trek? Anybody enlighten me as to what "regenerating" in navy speak means? Or is it just another newspaper mis-print? Last status I saw posted from a few days ago, was Sutherland was allocated to Trials work......and has been for past 30 odd days. Perhaps its some sort of Doctor Who regeneration trial, and its going to re-appear as another ship but with the same name :p |
Lone Wolf 50
As you say it’s trying to grow like a forest fire from smouldering ashes when the breeze picks up. People in charge need to reassess and work out how they are going to find the off ramp as they say these days,as something needs to be thought through as there does not appear to be the widespread uprising against the regime in Iran that perhaps was hoped for. You would like to hear the briefing that must have occurred before this started, and who said what and to who. Cheers Mr Mac |
Macron says the Europeans, with non-European allies, are organising a defensive mission to escort tankers and container ships through the Gulf of Hormuz.
Obviously doesn’t believe/trust Trump to do it….. hope he doesn’t expect the RN to have anything to add to the orbat. Video of his speech in Paphos with subtitles President Macron: “We are currently setting up a purely defensive escort mission to to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "It must be prepared with European and non-European states and is intended to enable, once the most intense phase of the conflict has passed, to escort container ships and oil tankers in order to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for international trade, but also for the transport of gas and oil, which must be able to leave the region again." |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12049321)
Macron says the Europeans, with non-European allies, are organising a defensive mission to escort tankers and container ships through the Gulf of Hormuz.
Obviously doesn’t believe/trust Trump to do it….. hope he doesn’t expect the RN to have anything to add to the orbat. Video of his speech in Paphos with subtitles Wonder if that's the driver for the RN Carrier ( lets just assume its available for now) Despite the disbelief at DTs comments re turning up late, I have been pondering exactly why we might need it (them) beyond escalation. |
Video
BREAKING: This footage shows the arrival of six F-16C Fighting Falcons of the Turkish Air Force at Ercan Airport in the occupied part of Cyprus. They are said to have been deployed to protect the occupied areas of the island from what Erdoğan’s regime claims are threats posed by one-way attack drones of the Islamic regime of Iran. However, their deployment appears to be largely a political show and comes in response to the deployment of two Greek F-16Cs to Paphos to help protect Cyprus from one-way attack drones of the IRGC Aerospace Force. |
Target
There was speculation when this was first reported that the target may have been Incirlik Airbase but even NAS Sigonella was mentioned. Just curious …could the missile even reach Sigonella which is 14 to 1500 Nm at least. NB.Pissing off the good folks in Sicily is widely held as not a good idea. |
ORAC, thanks for that. "In the occupied part of Cyprus" ...wait, didn't Mr Erdogan make a lot of noise in the last few years about "the occupied territories?" :} (Digression curtailed at this point).
. The Republic of Cyprus does not consider entry or exit via Ercan Airport or by a seaport in the north to be legal. Fun times ahead. :eek: On the practical/military side: a few more assets for CAP helps more than it hurts, right? For albatross: I am relying on 30 year old information here, but depending on the make and mod of a given ballistic missile (Theater Ballistic Missile), by this date I suspect that Sig might be in range. There is an estimate here that with current inventory -- it's about 3200 km to Sicily from Tehran -- that a couple of the missiles have ranges of 4,000 km. or so. (Simorgh, Ghaem-100). So yes, theoretically Sig is in range. |
Originally Posted by Compass Call
(Post 12049300)
I read in todays Telegraph that in the RN fleet of ships not available to escort either of the two unserviceable aircraft carriers to the Med, there is HMS Sutherland which is "regenerating"!
Does this mean that it is part of "The Borg" fleet from Star Trek? Anybody enlighten me as to what "regenerating" in navy speak means? Or is it just another newspaper mis-print? Regeneration means a programme once the ship comes out of refit of tests and trials on ships systems and weapons, to be followed by a work-up period to get the crew through a number of training serials. At which point the ship is deemed fully operational. That regeneration depends on how long the ship has been in upkeep. If a deep refit, you're talking months, if a fleet time upkeep, much less than that. Quite why we need to deploy a ship to the vicinity of our strategic air base in the Med because it does not appear to be well defended remains beyond my understanding. |
Quite why we need to deploy a ship to the vicinity of our strategic air base in the Med because it does not appear to be well defended remains beyond my understanding. |
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