Last night. No indication if air attacks - sabotage?

Explosions heard near the Isfahan Nuclear Facility in Iran. Something is also on fire.

Which came down to one guy. W Paul Bremer. The next 17 years of sorrow are on his shoulders. he was given sound guidance by multiple agencies, and disregarded the lot.

There does seem to be an assumption that if you get rid of the current regime, something warmer and cuddlier will replace them. Have there been any recent examples?

According to Wiki Bremer became a ski instructor later on?

And he slunk away like a thief in the night.

With that said, the original campaign plan that General Eric Shinseki et al came up with called for about 240-260,000 troops including a substantial support for Phase 4 and Phase 5 (the "day after bits") and that got him fired.
Rumsfeld and the rest of the head shed scrapped it.


Whomever want to invade Iran is welcome to build an Op Plan that can do that, but how many Arab nations (neighbors who have issues with Iran) are willing to expend their blood and treasure in such an endeavor?
If they won't cross the LD, why should anyone else?

I see the current form of conflict sustaining itself for the mid term at the least.

Video. When asked whether he would support Israel striking the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Canadian opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, responds:

“It would be a gift by the Jewish state to humanity.”

Looks like someone (Pierre Poilievre) wanted to stir the pot, doesn't it, ORAC? :}

'Threads'

"One of the most terrifying programmes ever shown on British television, Threads is the nuclear apocalypse drama-documentary that continues to haunt people’s nightmares 40 years on. Ahead of a rare new showing on the BBC, here’s a look at how the drama still has the potential to terrify people.
First broadcast on 23 September 1984, anyone who tuned in to BBC Two on that Sunday evening would experience a bleak and unforgettable depiction of a massive nuclear bomb attack on a British city and its aftermath.

It was a nightmare scenario that was all too plausible in an era of heightened tension between the West and the then Soviet Union. Rarely seen on television since its first broadcast, it's being shown again on BBC Four and iPlayer on 9 October. Sheffield was chosen as the fictional nuclear target because its writer, Kes author Barry Hines, lived there.
(continues in link)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02kgkkg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/articles/crl8nj3xxp7o
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threads_(1984_film)

PSB used in...
​​​​​​​

I bought the DVD of Threads 14 years ago. Still available, but about 3 times the price I paid!

Quite disturbing.....

I'm watching Threads now. Scene outside a news agent. Headline... Iran crisis deepens!

Plus ca change! 😔

Did he instruct Sonny Bono?

That's funny fdr. Sick, but funny :E

Watched it when it first went on air back in the early 1980's in the same year the US produced and broadcast a similar series 'The Day After'.
Threads, for me at least, is by far the more harrowing depicting the lead up to and immediate aftermath. It loses its way somewhat in the last third though and verges on surrealism at times.
As a child starting school mid 1960's and then a teen in the 1970's, the weekly test of the 4-minute warning siren (mounted on the local police station), sunk into the background becoming noise blended with traffic along with the local church bells on Sunday morning or our town clock tower bell chiming every hour. Secretly though, everyone welcomed the scheduled test as somewhat comforting opposed to the siren wailing at any other time. The public information films 'Protect and Survive', regularly broadcast on national TV at peak viewing times, are in hindsight almost laughable if they were not so chilling. Duck and cover under school desks was a bit of fun - the gravity of which was completely lost on all of us in 'juniors'.

Another programme well worth hunting down and aired in 1986, is based on Raymond Briggs book 'When the wind Blows'. Sublime to ridiculous, Briggs also wrote the childhood classic 'The Snowman'.

Politicians are quite happy to justify the cost of the war with rhetoric, and other children's blood. When it comes to paying for the peace (pieces) they don't see the same value in votes and that results in the next disaster unfolding.

You break it, you own it.

The show or the price? 🤔

Interesting related tidbit here: And the French did not let the USAF fly over France to bomb Lybia in 1986.

Iran's proxy the Houthis launched attacks on Saudi oil facilities a few years ago. You might say that they have previous form.

Paranoia….

They still might have done it. For some reason France could use USAF C-5s to transport material to Tchad soon after.

No. From first hand testimony of those involved. From the UK they had to fly down through the `Bay of Bidcay and past Portugal and then make a hard left through the `straits of Gibraltar. Same on the return leg.

Talking of whose airpsace, has Iran ever asked for permission to overfly Jordan?

Still, they were said to have arrived a little early.

Why not fly across N Spain? Or did they refuse permission as well?

I don't recall them granting permission, and at the time they were not in the integrated military command structure, as they later came to be. They only joined NATO in 1982.
​​​​​​​For Less Hair: not sure what you are driving at, but perhaps winds aloft were not as forecast?

You'd have thought in 4 years after they joined in 1982 someone would have got their phone number................... all they were asking for was a clear flight path?

How much time have you spent inside of NATO, or a NATO HQ?
The Italians also did not agree to the overflight FFS, and they'd been in NATO for decades.
Politics, with a capital P. :p

Nobody wanted to get bombed back - and Libya was too close for their liking.

Even we were twitchy as Int forecast a risk of a retaliatory strike at the SBA in Cyprus - I was one of 3 reinforcement controllers flown out to 280SU along with 4 x F4 and 2 VC-10s to Akrotiri for about 4 weeks.

IIRC, Libya fired some missiles at Lampedusa Island, which is Italian territory between Sicily and Tunisia.
Yep, just checked, they did.

I just try to connect the dots. IIRC there was an early visible public outcry in France by some senior military person back then about something like a suspected overflight (along the northern Pyrenees) on the way out or similar. This went quiet. Instead many detailed stories about how often they refueled and how long it took were published.
Soon after, the French received much needed heavy cargo C-5 services to Chad and were best friends with the US again.
If you get closely monitored taking off any shortcut on a mission like this would have made a lot of sense - in theory.

OK, thanks, the bit with Chad was something we were keeping an eye on during my Med Deployment in 1985-1986.
It featured in our daily INT brief because of the Mad Colonel's position in Chad at the time, which tied to concerns of his nuclear ambitions with the attendant worry that he'd be providing nuclear stuff the various terrorist groups whom he gave support and aid to (like the IRA, Red Army Faction, and the usual Arab malcontents).

As to the French


Iran and China:

"With Iran, China Holds the Leverage"

This is an excerpt of a longer/larger article in Foreign Policy magazine. In a larger sense, it's hopeful to see that Iran probably can't drag China into action (that might have a military element attached to it).

And that's exactly what happened in Aug 86 during my first OO duty having joined 84 Sqn in June. Two co-ordinated attacks on the airfield, one via the not-crash gate (they rammed it and couldn't get through) from Ladies Mile and one from the ridgeline to the North using a mortar with no baseplate. Neither attack was successful due to the numpties who carried them out - two very minor injuries, both to service wives.

". In a larger sense, it's hopeful to see that Iran probably can't drag China into action "

Historically China has only acted when its own, direct , interests were threatened - Korea, Indian, Russian & Vietnam borders. I doubt they'd go to war for the Mad Mullahs - especially when they spend so much time "re-educating" their own Moslem population. Iran, like Russia, is useful as it diverts US attention from China - but fight for them??? When they can get replacement oil easily on world markets??? Probably not

Still no Israeli retaliatory strike - and clearly a lot of high level discussion over what will be hit (if the WAPO is to be believed - military targets only)
One wonders if they are waiting for the recently arrived THAAD to be fully operational - in preparation for the following counter barrage from Iran.

Conflict stage 7 ……
 

For info:
https://theconversation.com/israel-i...20of%20control

Stage 7 becoming 8.

Interesting article, thank you. Check back tomorrow, that last bit may change. :p

That is an interesting piece - thank you.
Noting this development:
https://www.twz.com/air/b-2-spirits-...-only-they-can

Well - even more developments.

Northern Territory air base used as staging ground for US strike on Houthi weapon stores

Exclusive by defence correspondent Andrew Greene and chief digital political correspondent Jacob Greber

• 
  

27m ago27 minutes agohttps://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn...862&height=575RAAF Base Tindal, which was used as a staging ground for the strike, in 2013. (Supplied: RAAF-Shane Gidall)

In short:

The Department of Defence has confirmed Australia provided support for the US strikes on underground bunkers used by Yemen's Houthi rebels "through access and overflight for US aircraft in northern Australia".

The US said its strikes were ordered by President Joe Biden to degrade the Houthi weapons stores and send a message to "our adversaries", which includes Iran.

An Australian official said the support was "consistent with our long-standing alliance commitment and close cooperation, demonstrating the interoperability of our militaries".
abc.net.au/news/australian-airbase-used-in-us-strike-on-houthi-stores-yemen/104490578
Link copied
Share articleA remote Northern Territory air base was used as a staging post for this week's United States air strike on underground Houthi weapons stores in Yemen, an attack that has been seen as a warning to Iran.

The Department of Defence confirmed Australia provided support for US strikes on October 17, targeting the Houthi facilities "through access and overflight for US aircraft in northern Australia".

"Australia is committed to supporting the US, and key partners, in disrupting Houthi capabilities used to threaten global trade and the lives of mariners in the Red Sea, a vital international waterway," a defence spokesperson said.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said early on Friday morning (AEDT) that President Joe Biden ordered the strikes to "further degrade the Houthis' capability" to destabilise the region and protect US forces in "one of the world's most critical waterways".

While the US did not mention Iran, American media noted that the B-2 is the only plane capable of hitting deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities.
https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn...862&height=575US stealth bombers have been targeting Houthi strongholds in Yemen. (Reuters: Hyungwon Kang)
"This was a unique demonstration of the United States' ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified," Mr Austin said.

"The employment of US Air Force B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers demonstrate US global strike capabilities to take action against these targets when necessary, anytime, anywhere."

The US has been battling Iran-backed Houthis since shortly after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel over a year ago.

US Central Command issued a separate statement that it "conducted multiple, precision airstrikes" on storage facilities in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, that had "various advanced conventional weapons used to target US and international military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden".

US forces "targeted the Houthis' hardened underground facilities housing missiles, weapons components, and other munitions," it said.

Support consistent with 'long-standing alliance commitment'

An Australian official said the "support is consistent with our long-standing alliance commitment and close cooperation, demonstrating the interoperability of our militaries".

"Australia will continue to work with partners to deter actions that undermine global and regional security and stability."

In October 2022, Four Corners revealed that the US Air Force would build a "squadron operations facility" at Tindal Air Base, south of Darwin.

Two US B-2 bombers landed at Amberley Air Force Base near Brisbane last month, according to a post on in Missouri.

Whiteman is where the US Air Force bases its fleet of B-2 bombers, which is believed to number 19 operational warplanes, according to the New York Times.

The newspaper reported on Friday that the B-2 is the only warplane that can carry the largest class of specially built bombs that can punch through soil, rock or concrete before detonating.

It is not known whether the bombs, known as GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators or MOPs, were used in the mission.

Why was it necessary to reveal that? (Did the Aussies ask for credit?)

Who knows.
But I doubt the RAAF would have done so without a nod from the USAF - right?
As someone said earlier, for deterrence to be effective it needs to be publicised (to a degree, sensibly, taking into account Operational Security).
Quite happy to be corrected as a civilian, but I would have thought any operational security implications here are reasonably limited?
So in this case - what might be the message that is being sent - and to whom?
In the case of the USAF, its message might be "...we have friends who will not hesitate to actively assist us and are doing so, despite any overt or veiled threats to them..." and I'd suggest it's a message as much to China as anyone.
I would suggest flying your most valuable strategic bomber on the way to an actual real mission through a staging point like Tindal is a big message to send.