|
Jordan won't let them overfly - not clear on how they'd get in. https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/657...l#post11743958 |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11744323)
By a strange coincidence the USS Georgia arrived in the region a couple of weeks ago….
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals...es-middle-east And the B-2 wing practiced hot-pit refuelling at Diego Garcia during the past month… https://youtu.be/TJGnONgkk_M?si=Laa8s6XpAYk062D7 |
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11744345)
Don't understand the B2 reference sorry... obviously I'm missing something..
Even if they are not used, sends a message of credible preparation and surprise attack. PS soz if you already know the B2 capability or have a mil background - not meant to patronise in any way. |
This has been coming for some time, since April 24, when the Iranian embassy in Damascus was attacked by Israel. We are approaching the anniversary of the Re'im music festival on 7th October 2023, which set off the fuse on this latest sad round. The pager attack was not going to occur without upsetting those with a vested interest in Hezbollah. The latest attack on Hezbollah resulting in the demise of Hassan Nasrallah added additional weight to the less restrained Iranian response to their embassy attack.
Israel was aware an attack was likely, and Irans comments in the last week to Vlad the diminutive would have given Israel a heads up that things were going to get rowdy in the near future. The video of the attack on Israel resulted in a fair number of leakers, air defence appears to have been around 30% effective which will make for some uncomfortable times in the debrief in Israel. Hard to see that Benjamin Netanyahu will show any restraint in respect to a response against military targets in Iran, or oil/shipping infrastructure, assuming that Israel retains a large number of the F-15's and F-35's. The intractability of the problem in the region without the desire for good will to prevail is not going away anytime soon. The decisions on the settlement expansions in the West Bank may not look to have been so helpful when this page of history gets a review in the cold light of day many years hence. In the absence of a will to discuss the issues that separate the 7 tribes, there will be more tears and little in the way of solutions, just the delight of radicals tearing down the tent and renting the fabric of civilisation, again. We will get an idea how a true gen-5 aircraft goes against an early gen-4 air superiority aircraft with little updating. Not dull, but depressing. |
No offence taken - was aware of all those things, but puzzled as the US has confined role so far to Iranian missile shoot downs from the Arleigh Burkes - whereas the B2 is a strategic bomber...
|
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11744226)
Hmm - well that makes things even more challenging...
Oddly, their work was mainly done on IAI Westwind II's and on Merlin IIIA's. |
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11744374)
No offence taken - was aware of all those things, but puzzled as the US has confined role so far to Iranian missile shoot downs from the Arleigh Burkes - whereas the B2 is a strategic bomber...
|
No offence taken - was aware of all those things, but puzzled as the US has confined role so far to Iranian missile shoot downs from the Arleigh Burkes - whereas the B2 is a strategic bomber... I’m simply pointing out that, even ignoring the carrier based FJ in the area - which still might not have the legs to reach targets inland without putting their carriers in harms way - the US has ample weapons platforms able to reach targets in Iran. Two of which that are already in the area or can reach it within hours are the Georgia with 150+ Tomahawk and the B-2 which can carry multiple bunker busters up to and including the GBU-57 MOP. |
I'll go out on a limb, ORAC, and suggest that the US isn't going to start lobbing Tomahawks into Iran any time soon.
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11744214)
Noting Biden's calls for de-escalation, would the US allow staging of an attack from Al Udeid, Ali Al Salem or the like?
Based on what I learned at Al Udeid a couple of decades ago, the chance of launching strikes from there at Iran are likely zero (in the near term) and specifically as regards support to Israel as long as the Gaza thing keeps going. The Host Nation has some sensitivities that must be respected. I doubt that this has changed, since I was there, and I'd point out that Al Udeid is a joint use base. It houses the Qatar Emiri Air Force, United States Air Force, Royal Air Force, and other foreign forces. It is host to a forward headquarters of United States Central Command, headquarters of the United States Air Forces Central Command, No. 83 Expeditionary Air Group RAF, and the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing of the USAF.\
Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 11744373)
The intractability of the problem in the region without the desire for good will to prevail is not going away anytime soon.
Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 11744373)
We will get an idea how a true gen-5 aircraft goes against an early gen-4 air superiority aircraft with little updating. Not dull, but depressing.
|
OK, I am still finding this puzzling.
Why would Biden support Israel's right to defend itself, but not support Israel striking Iran's nuclear weapons development facilities? Is the US concerned that such an Israeli strike alone might not be completely successful, and aggravate the Iranians to the point that they accelerate towards breakout. At which point, the only power with the reach and mass (TLAMs and Bunker Busters) to rapidly stop Iran would be the United States.... thereby dragging it into direct conflict? |
Interesting body suits….
Video 3 Swedish citizens aged 15-20 arrested for throwing hand grenades at the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen this morning. https://archive.ph/R1Dtq Explosions and gunshot at Israeli embassies in Sweden and Denmark A gunman opened fire on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm and two bombs were set off near its counterpart in Copenhagen, in what one prominent terrorism expert described as an apparent escalation of Iran’s “shadow war” against Jewish targets in Europe. At least one gunshot was aimed at the embassy in Stockholm at about 6pm on Tuesday. At 3.20am on Wednesday, two hand grenades were detonated about 100m away from the embassy in the Danish capital. No one was hurt in the incidents but they have exacerbated concerns that the war in the Middle East is spilling over on to European soil as Israel and Iran engage in direct and proxy conflicts. Danish police arrested three Swedish nationals between the ages of 15 and 20, said to be gang members, in connection with the bombings in Copenhagen. Two of the suspects were detained on a train in Copenhagen central station, which was also inspected by a bomb disposal squad….. There have not yet been any arrests in Sweden, and the Swedish and the Danish authorities have not made any public statements about a possible motive or a direct link between the shooting in Sweden and the bombings in Denmark. However, SVT, the national public broadcaster, reported that Swedish police believe both attacks were carried out by criminals associated with Foxtrot, the country’s most powerful gang, and that they were ultimately ordered to do so by Iran.…. Earlier this year Swedish and Israeli security services both accused Foxtrot of recruiting freelance criminals, who are often teenagers, on Iran’s behalf. Peter R Neumann, professor of security studies at King’s College London, said the character of the incidents strongly suggested that they were part of a series of attacks commissioned by Tehran, although they could also conceivably have been the work of a separate terror group such as Islamic State. There have already been three previous attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe since the start of the year: two in Stockholm and one in Brussels. Neumann said that in all three cases, evidence had pointed to the involvement of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), an elite branch of Iran’s armed forces, using local criminal networks to create a thin veil of plausible deniability. “These would be the fourth and fifth attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe this year,” he said. “They fit with the modus operandi. What also fits is that the Iranians have typically hired local criminals to carry out these attacks previously in order to not be directly connected with them.”….. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a0d12f142b.png |
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11744860)
OK, I am still finding this puzzling.
Why would Biden support Israel's right to defend itself, but not support Israel striking Iran's nuclear weapons development facilities? Is the US concerned that such an Israeli strike alone might not be completely successful, and aggravate the Iranians to the point that they accelerate towards breakout. At which point, the only power with the reach and mass (TLAMs and Bunker Busters) to rapidly stop Iran would be the United States.... thereby dragging it into direct conflict? Upcoming election is a bit of a giveaway. No sense in giving Agent Orange more political ammunition if you pardon the pun. Attacking the nuclear facilities is likely to dramatically precipitate escalation potentially dragging in the US and also Russia. Wig-man can blame it all on the Biden admin' and gives another argument to remove support to Ukraine to end the SMO and become Putin's new bff (for a nice mutually assured backhander) and sojourns together at each others holiday pads. Yes, the only weapons that could hold the deep nuclear facilities at risk would be the GBU-57's but at nearly 14 metric tonnes each only the US has the strategic heavy bomber reach to accomplish that from Diego Garcia. (Good job they just signed a new 100 year lease). |
Russia is in discussions with the Houthis, via Iran, to transfer long-range Onyx anti-ship missiles for use against Western ships.
The Houthis have already been targeting military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if the West continues to allow Ukraine to strike Russia, Moscow could supply long-range weapons to forces willing to retaliate against Western nations. Source: Reuters |
BREAKING: The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appears to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel. Their empty VLCC supertankers vacated the country's largest oil terminal, Kharg Island, yesterday.
Clients: We have located & tagged all of them in satellite imagery. Please note that crude oil loadings continue, but all of the extra vacant shipping capacity has been removed from the anchorage of Kharg Island. This is the first time we see anything like this since the 2018 sanctions round. |
Despite their extraordinary technical and operational capabilities - too big a job for the IAF alone - even to knock out a handful of the most critical sites:
https://i.insider.com/4c0fbc3a7f8b9a...jpeg&auto=webp |
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11745409)
Despite their extraordinary technical and operational capabilities - too big a job for the IAF alone - even to knock out a handful of the most critical sites:
Good news is, whatever Israel does, it will be a surprise to Teheran and to us, Israel has a bit of message to send downtown. |
I'm sure the Iranian leadership, when they met, knew that Israel probably had the room bugged, and that they could almost certainly be wiped out at a flick of a switch.
My bet is that they'll wait until after the US Election - if Trump gets in they'll go for N weapons ASAP. If it's Harris they'll try and get back to where they were with Obama. |
A military strike does not have to hit every single site....just look for the pinch points that if removed....stop the production of any nuclear weapons.
Then, Combine that with strikes that put the Iranian Oil Production facilities into ruin, destroy their offshore facilities that load Tankers, sink every Iranian flagged/owned tanker throughout the world's oceans. Turn out the lights by hitting every electrical generation and transmission sites....all by air or sea forces....and you bottle up the Genie. Re-impose all of the sanctions as were in effect that almost saw the Iranian government go bankrupt and impose sufficient new sanctions to achieve that end. Follow up by a major effort to support unrest amongst the Iranian people and perhaps we shall see the end of the current regime. Appeasement and calling for cease fires has never worked....the other side has to understand it has lost and must make the best deal possible... but must accept they cannot prevail and must accept the terms being offered. Negotiation can only succeed if you are in a "winning" position and the opponent knows and accepts that it is not and is in a clear losing situation. What one experienced negotiator had to say.... The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead... Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can't do without. Unfortunately, that isn't always the case, which is why leverage often requires imagination, and salesmanship. In other words, you have to convince the other guy it's in his interest to make the deal. Hitler was intent upon War....was way ahead of Great Britain in its preparing for that War and thus felt to be in a superior position and in the end that Agreement was not worth the paper it was written upon. Does anyone think the Mullahs in control of the Iranian Government are much different than the Germans in that regard beyond using proxies for the majority of their military aims as their record of war making did not turn out all that well back when they took on the Iraqi's under Saddam Hussein. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c342edea89.jpg |
SASless:-
Commonsense tells us that you negotiate from a position of strength....not weakness. (For you Brits....think back to Chamberlin v. Hitler prior to WWII). All Chamberlin obtained was some time to delay what was coming. Hitler was intent upon War....was way ahead of Great Britain in its preparing for that War and thus felt to be in a superior position and in the end that Agreement was not worth the paper it was written upon. Are you saying that Chamberlain was wrong? What should he have done instead? |
Are you saying that Chamberlain was wrong? What should he have done instead? |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 11745702)
Re-impose all of the sanctions as were in effect that almost saw the Iranian government go bankrupt and impose sufficient new sanctions to achieve that end. Follow up by a major effort to support unrest amongst the Iranian people and perhaps we shall see the end of the current regime. Appeasement and calling for cease fires has never worked....the other side has to understand it has lost and must make the best deal possible... but must accept they cannot prevail and must accept the terms being offered. Negotiation can only succeed if you are in a "winning" position and the opponent knows and accepts that it is not and is in a clear losing situation. What one experienced negotiator had to say.... Hitler was intent upon War....was way ahead of Great Britain in its preparing for that War and thus felt to be in a superior position and in the end that Agreement was not worth the paper it was written upon. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c342edea89.jpg
Originally Posted by Chugalug2
(Post 11745732)
SASless:-
That delay was what was needed to stop Hitler at the Channel. Are you saying that Chamberlain was wrong? What should he have done instead? Seems just a bit unreasonable to blame a leader for wishing for peace while in the background his cabinet was putting together the tools that were needed to oppose the aggression they knew was likely to occur. Chamberlain had the courage to draw a line which he obviously wanted to avoid, but he did that. We forgive in part Churchill for his disasters in the Dardanelles, and pay respect to his oratory and ability to squeeze lemonade out of the lemons that were the reality of the RN, RA and RAF in 1940, which is reasonable, but we fail to see Chamberlain in the same light. Right now, we are listening and observing in near real time FPV a rhyme of history on our smartphones, iPads and other devices and hear the whinges of the cost of a latte due to the apparently "unreasonable" support of a nation that has been viciously attacked by an aggressor who has a history of recidivism in disregard of human rights. war crimes, international treaties and anything other than lining their Demi gods pockets with loot. Not much honour floating about other than the Ukrainian troops that are bearing the cost of doing the rest of the worlds work for them, while we whinge about the cost while not allowing them to strike their foe at the launch location of the attacks. Our Latte cost, their blood, seems a bit out of balance. The West appeased Putin, surprise... what happened then? |
"Then, Combine that with strikes that put the Iranian Oil Production facilities into ruin, destroy their offshore facilities that load Tankers, sink every Iranian flagged/owned tanker throughout the world's oceans.
Turn out the lights by hitting every electrical generation and transmission sites....all by air or sea forces....and you bottle up the Genie. Re-impose all of the sanctions as were in effect that almost saw the Iranian government go bankrupt and impose sufficient new sanctions to achieve that end." that worked REALLY well in Iraq - and in Afghanistan :( |
Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 11745763)
It has been fashionable to denigrate the actions of Chamberlain for the last 85 years, and yet, when he returned to England in his Lockheed 14 to Heston, on 29 September 1938, his actions by design or happenstance gave the grace period to ramp up production of home defence aircraft, and to refine the chain home radar system that was starting to be positioned by 1938 but did not have an effective integration of control protocols, they took time to sort out. In 1935, the defence white paper made a case that in light of the threat that Hitler was perceived to be from his actions in 1933, the UK would not be in shape to fight a war before 1939. Chamberlain was well aware of that assessment when he went to Berchtesgaden on 15 Sept 38, Bad Godesberg on 22 sept 38, and finally the infamous 30 Sept 38 return from the Munich meeting.
Seems just a bit unreasonable to blame a leader for wishing for peace while in the background his cabinet was putting together the tools that were needed to oppose the aggression they knew was likely to occur. Chamberlain had the courage to draw a line which he obviously wanted to avoid, but he did that. We forgive in part Churchill for his disasters in the Dardanelles, and pay respect to his oratory and ability to squeeze lemonade out of the lemons that were the reality of the RN, RA and RAF in 1940, which is reasonable, but we fail to see Chamberlain in the same light. Right now, we are listening and observing in near real time FPV a rhyme of history on our smartphones, iPads and other devices and hear the whinges of the cost of a latte due to the apparently "unreasonable" support of a nation that has been viciously attacked by an aggressor who has a history of recidivism in disregard of human rights. war crimes, international treaties and anything other than lining their Demi gods pockets with loot. Not much honour floating about other than the Ukrainian troops that are bearing the cost of doing the rest of the worlds work for them, while we whinge about the cost while not allowing them to strike their foe at the launch location of the attacks. Our Latte cost, their blood, seems a bit out of balance. The West appeased Putin, surprise... what happened then? |
Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 11745777)
"Then, Combine that with strikes that put the Iranian Oil Production facilities into ruin, destroy their offshore facilities that load Tankers, sink every Iranian flagged/owned tanker throughout the world's oceans.
Turn out the lights by hitting every electrical generation and transmission sites....all by air or sea forces....and you bottle up the Genie. Re-impose all of the sanctions as were in effect that almost saw the Iranian government go bankrupt and impose sufficient new sanctions to achieve that end." that worked REALLY well in Iraq - and in Afghanistan :( |
SASless:
Then, Combine that with strikes that put the Iranian Oil Production facilities into ruin, destroy their offshore facilities that load Tankers, sink every Iranian flagged/owned tanker throughout the world's oceans. {1} Turn out the lights by hitting every electrical generation and transmission sites....all by air or sea forces....and you bottle up the Genie. Re-impose all of the sanctions as were in effect that almost saw the Iranian government go bankrupt and impose sufficient new sanctions to achieve that end. {2} Follow up by a major effort to support unrest amongst the Iranian people and perhaps we shall see the end of the current regime. Just to let you know, the two bolded efforts substantially contradict each other. As to this: {3} almost saw the Iranian government go bankrupt and impose sufficient new sanctions to achieve that end |
|
The whole Chamberlain "was he right/was he wrong" argument is difficult if not impossible to form a firm opinion on in my view. We will never know what would have happened.
It's like the whole "would you kill baby Hitler" hypothesis. The tempting answer is yes BUT the fallout from WW2 arguably led to the European powers who had been knocking the proverbial out of each other on and off for two thousand years to take steps to prevent a repeat. It led to recognition of Genocide and a deep rooted anathema to it within western psyche. It led to the United States becoming the pre-eminent influence on global affairs ever since. It led to lessons that humiliating and criplling a defeated enemy was counter-productive. It also led to the aviation industry as we know it today. We'll never know how the world would have gone without WW2, perhaps a worse conflict. |
Originally Posted by admikar
(Post 11745787)
Are you forgeting how Mutty Merkel stated that Minsk agreement was never to be honoured, it was just a time buying excercise to weaponise Ukraine?
revisionist history needs the facts to be buried, and unfortunately, in the case of Minsk I & II, I can't really agree with your observation there sport. Round I.
Spoiler
Well, assuming that Vlad and the rest of his LGM would abide by any of that agreement was likely to just add to the need for sanitary wipes, which Vlad accommodated with the agreement. That set up Minsk Ver 2.0
Spoiler
Hmmm. going out on a limb, I would hazard to guess that one side tore this up, the one who then finally said so on 22 Feb 2022. 1x V.V. Voldemort. Of note, Pushilin and Deinego wiped their nether regions with the Mk 2 agreement on 10 June, 2015, so I cannot see how the actions of the vassals of Vlad the impaler are attributed to the German Chancellor, post hoc. Add over 4,000 breaches of the agreement by... Russia's team, from 15 Feb 2015 to 10 June 2015... the first breaches while the ink was drying on the toilet paper. Adding insult to the intelligence of the audience, M. Dummy Pisskov on 13Feb 2015, before the failed 2.0 WOFTAM comments that "Russia could not assist in the implementation of Minsk II because it was "not a participant" in the conflict". That is one of the better one liners that Russia has put out in the last 1,400 years of despotism. Not involved. Funny, it was LGM of Russian forces that were tracked to the shootdown of MH-17, remember? With a 9M38 BUK provided by, and operated by Russian troops, at the behest of.... V.V. Voldemort. Names of those murdered by Putin and the rest of the Russian criminal enterprise, on MH17.
Spoiler
Murdering another 273 civilians by Russia is just another day ending in "Y". |
Originally Posted by T28B
(Post 11745826)
Are you aware that Afghanistan is land locked? Tankers and off shore facilities usually mean a port and a shoreline. :}
|
And history shows it s very easy to start a war - and a damn site harder to to stop it. |
The following is random musings after beer, free to poke holes as deserved
In these unpredictable time, I wonder if the recent barrage by Iran may actually contribute (perhaps unintentionally) to de-escalation. The earlier telegraphed one had almost 100% interception but on the previous occasion Iran didn't seem to be trying. In the last one, it is being played down but a reasonable portion seem to have gotten through and video evidence as well as pics of holes in a hanger roof suggest that they have some level of guidance. I imagine that the likes of patriot/arrow/sling will take out the first wave but it seems that concurrent arrivals of ballistic missiles are an issue. If Iran launches 1000 instead of 200, will the number taken out be the same or maybe double but all of the rest get through? If the Israeli missile defence is not a good as they thought it was, the last episode may raise the prospect of having every power station and transformer farm targetted next time if they up the ante. Maybe they will stick to leveling buildings/schools/hospitals in Gaza, Beruit and the West Bank now that they have normalised the practice of never actually having to supply any actual evidence to justify their claims that these strikes meet any kind or moral or legal bar. |
Originally Posted by soarbum
(Post 11746417)
The following is random musings after beer, free to poke holes as deserved
In these unpredictable time, I wonder if the recent barrage by Iran may actually contribute (perhaps unintentionally) to de-escalation. The earlier telegraphed one had almost 100% interception but on the previous occasion Iran didn't seem to be trying. In the last one, it is being played down but a reasonable portion seem to have gotten through and video evidence as well as pics of holes in a hanger roof suggest that they have some level of guidance. I imagine that the likes of patriot/arrow/sling will take out the first wave but it seems that concurrent arrivals of ballistic missiles are an issue. If Iran launches 1000 instead of 200, will the number taken out be the same or maybe double but all of the rest get through? If the Israeli missile defence is not a good as they thought it was, the last episode may raise the prospect of having every power station and transformer farm targetted next time if they up the ante. Maybe they will stick to leveling buildings/schools/hospitals in Gaza, Beruit and the West Bank now that they have normalised the practice of never actually having to supply any actual evidence to justify their claims that these strikes meet any kind or moral or legal bar. Is there any more advice you want to pass on to the bad actors? What's with you? Oh I see now, your Irish. |
Originally Posted by soarbum
(Post 11746417)
The following is random musings after beer, free to poke holes as deserved
In these unpredictable time, I wonder if the recent barrage by Iran may actually contribute (perhaps unintentionally) to de-escalation. The earlier telegraphed one had almost 100% interception but on the previous occasion Iran didn't seem to be trying. In the last one, it is being played down but a reasonable portion seem to have gotten through and video evidence as well as pics of holes in a hanger roof suggest that they have some level of guidance. I imagine that the likes of patriot/arrow/sling will take out the first wave but it seems that concurrent arrivals of ballistic missiles are an issue. If Iran launches 1000 instead of 200, will the number taken out be the same or maybe double but all of the rest get through? If the Israeli missile defence is not a good as they thought it was, the last episode may raise the prospect of having every power station and transformer farm targetted next time if they up the ante. Maybe they will stick to leveling buildings/schools/hospitals in Gaza, Beruit and the West Bank now that they have normalised the practice of never actually having to supply any actual evidence to justify their claims that these strikes meet any kind or moral or legal bar.
Originally Posted by BBadanov
(Post 11746424)
How many beers did you have?
Is there any more advice you want to pass on to the bad actors? What's with you? Oh I see now, your Irish. I am not offended by soars postulate, there is a chance that Iran has indeed sent a clear message of restraint to Israel, they breached the defences and yet, there were no casualties, that is either incredibly fortunate, or was calculated, I'm going with luck having little part in the process, and that a message has been sent for Benny to cogitate over his borekas and Jachnun's. But you do-on't go there!
Spoiler
|
Originally Posted by BBadanov
(Post 11746424)
How many beers did you have?
Is there any more advice you want to pass on to the bad actors? What's with you? Oh I see now, your Irish. I think his musings are at least touching a valid point. It appears that more mssiles have gotten through than I (and probably the Israelis as well) would have expected. It appears they were at least roughly hitting where they aimed at, i.e. Iran has sent the message that they can hit dedicated targets in Israel, something that I so far didn't take for granted. Indeed this may help to prevent further escalation since the cost of this has gone up mutually (only then it helps stopping escalation, otherwise there is no hindrance to one side going further and further -cue Russia vs. Ukraine- sad that the 'West' doesn't use this logic there: Fire more missiles into civillian buildings/areas and we'll allow them to ATACAMS/Taurus/SCALP into your Country). That is the way deterrence works - not saying that I'm happy that Iran is able of that -just agreeing to the logic. |
Breaking:
In response to threats from Iran targeting Azerbaijan*in the event of an Israeli attack, Azerbaijani President @presidentaz stated: “In the event of hostile action against us, we will rain down fire and burn the Islamic Republic and its proxies.” * |
Originally Posted by soarbum
(Post 11746417)
The following is random musings after beer, free to poke holes as deserved
In these unpredictable time, I wonder if the recent barrage by Iran may actually contribute (perhaps unintentionally) to de-escalation. The earlier telegraphed one had almost 100% interception but on the previous occasion Iran didn't seem to be trying. In the last one, it is being played down but a reasonable portion seem to have gotten through and video evidence as well as pics of holes in a hanger roof suggest that they have some level of guidance. I imagine that the likes of patriot/arrow/sling will take out the first wave but it seems that concurrent arrivals of ballistic missiles are an issue. If Iran launches 1000 instead of 200, will the number taken out be the same or maybe double but all of the rest get through? Add to that thought Iran's recent line on "we aren't giving the Russians any more missiles" and where does that take you? ;)
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11746941)
Breaking:
In response to threats from Iran targeting Azerbaijan*in the event of an Israeli attack, Azerbaijani President @presidentaz stated: “In the event of hostile action against us, we will rain down fire and burn the Islamic Republic and its proxies.” * (Not betting the Over on an Azeri win, though). Fo BBadanov: Uh, the Persians figured this out a while back. This isn't rocket science. |
Iran’s Crown Prince releases important speech.
He’s ready to lead the transition to democracy in Iran |
Does he even live in Iran? For some reason I think he doesn't.
(Then again, Khomeini was living in Paris when his chance came ...) |
Iraq was arguably the most successful military campaign anywhere, ever. The remit given to miliary commanders was regime change by military force and the resulting effort was a masterpiece of the effective use of precision military effects. The problem of course was the lack of a coherent executable plan for the day after. Defeating Iran militarily is the easy part, managing the fall out is a a whole different magnitude of hard. The region is at a tipping point and use of force decisions by Israel and the USA will have lasting consequences, but the status quo is not sustainable. A regional war is IMO inevitable and Iran will be decisively defeated, lets just hope there is a plan for a sustainable peace after the kinetic effects are over.
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History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce Karl Marx
Big Pistons, et al
"Those Who Cannot Remember the Past Are Condemned To Repeat It" Santayana “The Life of Reason, or The Phases of Human Progress”. The twelfth chapter titled “Flux and Constancy In Human Nature” Middle East cultures, and many similar world wide, choose not to remember because of aspects of culture and history. |
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