Of course I understood that. My point was it would take a very large mercenary force to have more effect than the current U.S. attacks; the United States has not signed the 1989 United Nations Mercenary Convention.

As long as there is still a sense of humour, perhaps things are not so bad... :}

Completely different. Drug-runners are easy to distinguish from fishing fleets from patterns of movement. Littoral fishing vessels do not cover huge distances and tend to spend a lot of time at very low speed, very much like small mine laying craft.

The USA military logistics effort in this war is staggering. I've worked within the system and, while I have seen faults, am sometimes in awe at its almost unstoppable capability.

As Napoleon Bonaparte said:
"The amateurs discuss tactics - the professionals discuss logistics."

Here's the latest from Sam discussing the USN logistics effort in the Gulf and Indian Ocean. Someone who knows what he is talking about and well worth a watch.

I can't believe we only have two fast combat stores ships. We used to have amost a dozen.
lars, that's a great video. Thanks.
Sal gets maritime logistics.

Like Sal, some years ago I submitted an essay to USNI and it was rejected. :p

You think that's bad; back in the early 80s I submitted an article for RUSI predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yes, it was rejected!
I turned my focus to the Punic Wars and the transition of Rome from a Republic.

Too bad there wasn't an internet betting site for you to post a wager upon! :eek:

Salute!

Yep Lars and Wolf, et al, the big tail truly wags the dog.

Besides super fying my last two or three years, I was the ops plan weenie, DOX, for my wing and worked closely with LGX, the logistics plan toad down the hall. Learned a lot as we both had to work with the base folks as we were a tenant unit and ops-oriented, while they were a huge logistics/depot level maintenance center. If you guessed Hill, free beer at my patio one day.

The U.S. developed a super logistics infrastructure simply cause we were a coupla thousand miles from the wars! Duuhhhh. Hell, the Limey dudes paddle thirty miles to the enemy for two world wars plus several in the 18th century. That factor also helped us being fairly isolationistic until after the secon" od big one. Anyway, by the time of Korea we had developed a very effective, competent logistic capability. It was magnified during the cold war as most of our units in the states were subject to "mobility" tasking. My job and my cohort's was to get 24 jets ready to launch in 24 hours for a cross the pond flight to Norway.

So no wonder, Lars. And we are still that prepared.

Gums sends...

It seems incredible that the fast boats were not detected before they took action against the ships. Why were they allowed to do what they did? Why aren’t the IRGC crews feeding the fishes right now?

Seems the WH can at least turn to Mr T's make Vlad for assistance, after all, he has been invited by the incumbent in the WH to Miami for the G-20 meet later this year, the administrations position on an indicted war criminal seems to be pretty flakey. Flicking a middle finger at the ICC is a routine occurrence, and to be expected, but it does look pretty odd when for the last 10 years Mr T has been actively working against NATO, EU, UK, and various other democracies, the same ones that are being cajoled for being rather reticent in sending boots and boats and planes to the GoH to assist in the unscrambling of the expedition that the Benny and Don show put on for the global economy.

Thank goodness that Mr T won on day one, which does make it curious as to why there is a need for anything else to be done.

The Stop/Go signs on the status of the Straits, negotiations, cease fire, etc may need to carry a flicker vertigo warning.

So, hopefully Mr T and Mr P's warm fuzzies for each other will at least cure the issue, will be a blast to see Russia resurrect their fleet from the bottom of the Black Sea, scrape off the barnacles and join the USN in doing the business in great (read: Iranian, Omani, UAE) waters.

LW50; bet ya didn't think the day would come when your Prez had more time for the would be Tzar than NATO. Can't say it makes me overly happy.


https://www.tickcounter.com/countup/...nvaded-ukraine

Trump is certainly making sure the next US president has fewer options.

(And that the Europeans will definitely be buying closer to home)

ISW report:

BBC reporting that senior Iranian MP has stated that if US attacks Iranian infrastructure then Iran will do likewise other regional countries.

Leaves the US in an interesting position. Stand fast the obvious that anyone attacking civil infrastructure such as water supplies or electricity would be committing a war crime - it sets out a tricky conundrum. If US attacks Iran as per No 47's approach it could result in UAE or Qatar or other allies losing their water supplies.

Who would want to be trying to square that circle?

Who would want to be the general dancing on the head of a pin trying to justify that orders, received or given, were actually legal?

While this was not directed to me, I believe that I can speak on behalf of everyone who posts on the PPRuNe Military Aviation subforum and say that it makes none of us happy.

From the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/u...n-nuclear.html

BBC reporting that Trump has now cancelled Witkoff and Kushner's trip to Pakistan.

What an absolute circus the Trump administration is. Just how long is this dismal clown act going to go on for?

If it wasn't so serious, it would be funny watching the White House clown show getting handed their backside by the Iranians.

I have no idea how they get out this cluster, other than declaring victory, going home and starting some other crisis somewhere to deflect.

As far as I can see there are no good military options that result in anything that looks like a victory.

What happens if the Strait never opens? We just run out of oil?

China might come to open it? It needs that oil the most urgent.

Could be linked to what ORAC posted in 5532 about confusion in the ranks of who has the authority to talk.

'...Sources told Western media that Ghalibaf has grown frustrated with internal divisions and has considered resigning from the negotiating delegation, while some outlets have claimed that Ghalibaf has already resigned from the negotiating team due to disagreements over nuclear concessions....'.

Trump on his social media saying stuff like, that no one is in charge and no one knows who is in charge, so no point going to the ceasefire negotiations.

The Iranians may have come to the same conclusion with regard to those they would negotiate with.

A contrarian position would be that the next Prez will have a simpler problem to deal with, as the US will be regressing to the defensive perimeter that ICE and TSA can maintain, with no allies, other than Putin (seriously... that remains hard to even write) a Canada that is aligned with Europe, Australia aligning with Canada and Europe, and the new paradigm of FMS to... Burundi, and other similarly minded states. India is stepping out rather well in their own independent weapon system designs, although they have seen the Russian systems remain no better than the Soviet ones and so they are focused towards EUR systems. China, gets a free pass as it stands, which is only a problem if you consider that is a problem. Japan has to amend their constitution, (thanks, Don) and consider reliable allies, as will South Korea, which in spite of their historical issues, have common aims and are able to be effective allies.

This leads Israel in the business of bouncing rubble in Gaza and Lebanon, presumably a reasonable response to the begetting and begatting of violence that arises when 2 groups are sitting in the same sand box and there is no intent to remove the t1Rds from the kitty litter of 70 years of intolerance.

Is this a good thing? Depends. Taking out heads of state such as Maduro, as much as he was odious doesn't increase stability, nor does zapping fizz boats in the waters of other nations, but it is just another day ending in Y today. That the relative ease of removing a head of state from Venezuela set the expectations of a quick and gratifying removal of Irans head shed probably will look less glorious in the cold light of day.

We are getting a global reset, possibly on the order of the dinosaurs after Chicxulub, and maybe, that is what comes from the indifference that passes for civics in the west today.

What is curious is that China is not going to be happy with the changes, it forces their hands if this continues; it doesn't help India, although the consequence of famine there will certainly increase the opportunities for co-generation from funeral pyres, which seems to be a neat efficiency step. Taiwan will not be happy, but then they will be irrelevant in the biggly scheme of things, they are incidental to the problems of China other than being a political rallying point for a panda coming towards the natural end of his reversion to the gang of 4, the one thing that the CCP vowed never to repeat. Mexico will have a great opportunity to continue supporting the USA, but only as guest workers and imports. The need for guest workers will be dependent on the amount of potash that gets sent south from Canada, but DJT can always get it instead from Belarus and Russia, from the US's new allies.

All up, it seems that the opportunity for opportunity is quite large, for those that don't get planted in the dirt on the way through. The biggly, niggly bit is, Dale Carnegie would probably disagree with the strategy of making long term protagonists as a strategy.

I would suggest that Vlad the Impalers problems came from his megalomaniac tendencies mixed with paranoia. Vlad wants to be remembered as Vlad the Great... Fair enough. To achieve that, he had to have external threats that were existential, and he made that up in the caucuses, then Ukraine, to magically concentrate the public interest to other than the corruption and graft of his government. In DJTs case, he is not a megalomaniac as far as I can see, he presents generally as a sociopathic narcissist, who cannot balance a cheque book, and is adept at avoiding consequences as much as the original "teflon Don" did. Right now, John Giotti would be pretty annoyed at being left in the dust by the efforts of POTUS to extend his history of wreckage of commercial enterprises to include the USA, and much if not all of the world. That is far outside of the capacity of Vlad, so, to that end, kudos to DJT, well played.

So much for Trumps rhetoric about destroying all of Irans airforce.

The latest Shipping News
Sal comments on the efficacy of the US Blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

Is it true that the Iranian Air Force Museum are annoyed and want it back?

It now appears that ‘peace’ in Iran and restarting normal traffic through the strait is weeks /months away
So where do we ( plus the EU ) get oil to survive ?

Is it THAT critical ?? We don’t appear to panicking with rationing etc yet.

The longer the strait is closed the more cost effective / likely do overland pipelines become.

Iran had better be careful it doesn’t hold all the cards !

Question : how quickly can pipelines be built in an emergency which this now is ?

Large fire at a US commissary building on the outskirts of RAF Fairford. Sabotage?

Video

Sal Mercogliano:

To answer your question - at least partially - pipelines themselves are relatively quick and easy to construct. I once project managed an Ethylene pipeline 120 km long from concept to conclusion in 9 months. But that's a diddy little thing with low viscosity fluid compared to what is needed here. I would imagine the limiting factor is the equipment needed for the pumping stations. Pumps are powered by electrical or turbines often generating multi megawatts. This kit has multi year lead times and ain't sitting on a shelf at your local DIY store!
Many different pipeline projects have been proposed around the Middle East but almost all come up against political and geographic constraints. The market has effectively chosen the flexibility of using VLCCs to transport oil and petroleum products.

Given the geography of the region, with Iran always having the capability to close the Straits of Hormuz at will, perhaps the market needs to/will have a rethink

From a purely aviation perspective, nice to see the Phantoms still flying.

The Saudis built the East - West pipeline specifically to cover risk of the SoH closing. It has a plate capacity of 7million bbl however, the load capacity is, as I understand it, lim about 5 million. Iran attacked and damaged the pipeline but I now understand it has been repaired.

Interesting to note that they are estimated to have approximately 60 F4s in service (early 2026) of which, presumably, a number will have been destroyed. As 40 - 60 year old cabs, their serviceability is questionable, with them often referred-to as Frankenstein jets following much cannibalisation. Those that have received avionic upgrades are capable of carrying anti-ship missiles (Chinese C802?) Not sure I would fancy launching in one for an attack on shipping however!

Re the Fairford blaze, I wonder if it is just a coincidence that this was organised for yesterday? I picked up the leaflet in Green leaning
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....234e57acfc.jpg
Stroud last week.

Based on some of my experiences in aircraft maintenance, and some with overhaul, I tip my cap to the mechanics and engineers who keep those Phantoms flying. Getting, and reverse engineering, parts for those birds takes a bit of talent.
I doubt it. (But perhaps it was an accident...)

Someone plug a US appliance into British mains power?

”What’s that smell?…… Is that smoke? …..Is that flame!?
”Fire! Fire! Fire! Help! Help! Help!”

When I was about 11, I forgot to plug one of my electronic games (electric football) into a transformer before plutting it into a 220 VAC outlet in Germany.
Smoked it, ruined it, and got a right arse chewing from my father.

Morale seems OK.....

COMSEC in the era of international commercial LEO satellite constellations with AI intelligence analysis and distribution.....

6 decimal places in digital Lat & Long is an accuracy of 0.1M (4 inches....)

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....06ebbefee9.png