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artee 19th October 2024 03:39


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11753693)
Who knows.
But I doubt the RAAF would have done so without a nod from the USAF - right?
As someone said earlier, for deterrence to be effective it needs to be publicised (to a degree, sensibly, taking into account Operational Security).
Quite happy to be corrected as a civilian, but I would have thought any operational security implications here are reasonably limited?
So in this case - what might be the message that is being sent - and to whom?
In the case of the USAF, its message might be "...we have friends who will not hesitate to actively assist us and are doing so, despite any overt or veiled threats to them..." and I'd suggest it's a message as much to China as anyone.
I would suggest flying your most valuable strategic bomber on the way to an actual real mission through a staging point like Tindal is a big message to send.

I would have thought it would have flown from Diego Garcia.

rattman 19th October 2024 05:16


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11753373)
Why was it necessary to reveal that? (Did the Aussies ask for credit?)


Retrospectively Its was pretty obvious, the B-2 were recorded on live ATC when they checked in entering australian airspace NE of Cairns Australia. Plane spotters were already asking 5 american tankers (4 KC-135;s and 1 KC-48) were all chilling at cairns airport. It was going to get out so get on top of it quickly and use its a show of power global reach, global power

They didn't land in AUS. Allegedly they took from Whitman, refueled near calif, then hawaii, cairns, darwin and deigo garcia.After that no one is talking about assume 3 went in as strike package and the two trailing infllight landed at deigo garcia

ORAC 19th October 2024 09:17

Why Israel no longer tells the US their plans….. CONSEC no longer exist in the USA….

LEAKED: U.S. intelligence documents on Israeli preparations against Iran have been leaked.


Document 1: Israeli Air Force Preparations (15-16 October 2024)

— Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted large-scale exercises simulating strikes on Iran. These exercises involved handling long-range air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) and covert UAV operations.

— At least 16 Golden Horizon ALBMs and 40 ISO2 Rocks ALBMs were moved since 8 October. There were exercises involving refueling, aerial support, and combat search-and-rescue with KC-707 tankers and Gulfstream aircraft.

— ALBM-related operations took place at Hatzor, Ramat David, and Ramon Airfields, with missile handling continuing at various facilities.

Document 2: National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Assessment

This report evaluates various indicators of Israel’s military activity geared towards Iran, focusing on weapons handling, air defenses, ground forces, and UAV operations.

Key assessments include:
— Weapons Handling: ALBM and precision-guided munitions handling is medium to low.
— Air Operations: Elevated missile defenses, covert UAV flights, and aircraft defensive dispersal are observed at medium and low levels.
— Ground Forces: Limited movement related to Iranian proxies; primarily defensive.
— Special Forces: Preparations for external operations are at a medium level, suggesting potential readiness for strikes.
— Navy: No significant naval movements observed, but defensive measures are in place.
— Nuclear and Missile Forces: No major dispersals or activity indicating nuclear preparations.

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tdracer 19th October 2024 19:15


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11753844)
Why Israel no longer tells the US their plans….. CONSEC no longer exist in the USA….

LEAKED: U.S. intelligence documents on Israeli preparations against Iran have been leaked.

As an American, it's really embarrassing how bad the leaks have gotten.
I saw an article last week reporting that Biden and Harris had a telecon with Netanyahu discussing what actions Israel should or shouldn't take in response to the latest Iranian attack. I'm sure Netanyahu is smart enough to know better than tell them what Israel had planned - knowing it would likely end up in the US News within 24 hours.
In fact, it might be an opportunity for Israel - tell the POTUS that they are going to attack XYZ, it gets reported in the news, Iran takes appropriate counter measures, then Israel does something completely different...


SWBKCB 19th October 2024 20:05


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11754073)
In fact, it might be an opportunity for Israel - tell the POTUS that they are going to attack XYZ, it gets reported in the news, Iran takes appropriate counter measures, then Israel does something completely different...

Gosh - would people really try and spread such false information?

tartare 19th October 2024 23:07

CNN reporting the documents are authentic - leak being investigated.

Lonewolf_50 19th October 2024 23:08

Give it 48 hours.

MechEngr 20th October 2024 06:29

Let's get this timeline - Biden says something about stopping arms to Israel and almost immediately these documents are leaked, a leak that appears to embarrass the USA?

How does that stack up against making a full false website to support an operation that involved selling booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies into a very nervous supply chain via someone the supply chain trusted enough to not use e-bay or Amazon or even alibaba? Sure, the FBI sold compromised cell phones to criminals in the US, but still. If Israel doesn't have dozens of highly placed spies in the Pentagon I'd be surprised.

I do like the apparent confirmation that Israel has nukes, something that Israel has long been wishy-washy about.

petit plateau 20th October 2024 06:59

? Golden Horizon ALBM ?

ORAC 20th October 2024 08:48


? Golden Horizon ALBM ?
Probably the LORA:

https://www.twz.com/air/air-lora-isr...om-the-shadows

As for Rocks:

​​​​​​​https://www.twz.com/26582/israeli-fi...usting-missile


ORAC 21st October 2024 16:34

NEW⚡️

Israel uncovered an Iranian spy network made up of seven immigrants from Azerbaijan, including a father and son.

​​​​​​​ The suspects allegedly conducted around 600 espionage operations for Iran, gathering intelligence on IDF bases later targeted in Iran’s missile attacks. They also spied on IDF Headquarters in Tel Aviv and Iron Dome batteries.

tartare 21st October 2024 23:00

What I find intriguing about those documents is the degree to which the US is using all intel assets to verify what the Israelis are (or aren't) telling them.
IMINT, MASINT, SIGINT - and this re a nation they are supporting with weapons and funding.
Puts into context the anecdotal story that one of the recent phone calls began with Biden shouting, "Bibi, WTF?!!!"

tartare 23rd October 2024 00:50

Fascinating piece about IAF's possible undisclosed UAVs:
https://www.twz.com/air/the-existenc...as-no-surprise

ORAC 23rd October 2024 10:52

👀👀👀👀

Last year, I called for suspending Ariane Tabatabai’s security clearance for her role in an Iranian info op. Amazingly, she’s still in her job.

The latest apparent leak to an Iranian Telegram channel reflects the Biden-Harris administration's tolerance of insider threats.


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Is Ariane Tabatabai the mole leaking US secrets to Iran? The crazy truth is that it doesn't matter, it's so much worse that that.

If a woman with close personal and family ties to the IRGC (a group bent on the destruction of America) can get hired to a position that gives her top level clearance to all US (and allied) secrets, and then keep her job for years after she is exposed as literally taking directions from Iranian officials, the US bureaucracy is clearly so dysfunctional that there are no doubt dozens more like her, and it could have been any of them.


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ORAC 25th October 2024 15:13

"BRICS: Iran Receives License to Produce Russian Su-30 and Su-35 Fighters

Iran has received a license from Russia to produce Su-35 and Su-30 multirole fighters on its territory. This became known yesterday.

The agreements were probably reached at a meeting in Kazan during the BRICS summit.

The Su-35 and Su-30 are fourth-generation multirole supersonic fighters with high combat capabilities.

The Su-35 is equipped with a radar capable of detecting targets at long ranges and can carry a wide range of weapons, including air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles. It is highly maneuverable and capable of fighting in a variety of conditions, making it a formidable adversary in the air.

The Su-30 is a two-seat fighter that is also highly maneuverable and multifunctional. It can perform tasks both to gain air superiority and to strike land and sea targets. The Su-30 has the ability to refuel in the air and is equipped with modern navigation and control systems, which makes it versatile and reliable in various types of operations.

Iran currently does not have the capability to produce its own military aircraft.

FYI: Russia initially promised Iran delivery of completed Su-35 aircraft by March of 2024 in exchange for Iran's support of their war against Ukraine, including transfer of the Shahid technology for production in Russia and supplies of ballistic missiles.

This announcement makes it clear that Russia is incapable of making good on the deal due to sanctions and lack of other resources due to the war."

ORAC 25th October 2024 15:47

Just sayin'......



ORAC 25th October 2024 20:58

Nothings secret for even hours these days.

US Air Force KC-135T 58-0047 #AE0243 and KC-135R 57-1440 #AE023B were observed via Sentinel-2 L2A today, October 25th, 2024, at 0950Z east of Sicily

These tankers were seen with at least 2 fighter-sized aircraft that they were "dragging" (refueling along in transit) to CENTCOM's AOR.

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ORAC 25th October 2024 21:03

”The Mystery of today’s Tanker Activity over the Mediterranean has been Solved, with U.S. Central Command announcing the arrival of F-16CJs with the 480th Fighter Squadron from Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. F-16CJs and the 480th specialize in the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD).

​​​​​​​This however does not the explain the Dozen or so other Aerial-Refueling Tankers that were seen over Europe this morning, as well as several which crossed the Atlantic from the United States. Lots of Aircraft are being moved around in preparation for a Confrontation with Iran.”

ORAC 25th October 2024 21:17

Not sure what’s going on, but this is all being reported at the same time. No official confirmation.

According to Bloomberg, the United States has offered Defensive Assurances to Saudi Arabia if they are Attacked by Iran or its Proxy Groups.

NATO announces that in the event of a war between Iran and Israel, it will stand by Israel and any country that intervenes on Iran's side will become an enemy of the West.

ORAC 25th October 2024 21:25

Iran's army ordered to prepare for war with Israel, NYT

Iran will surely respond if Israel strikes oil facilities, nuclear facilities or high-ranking officials. In particular, an attack using up to 1,000 ballistic missiles is not excluded.

Right now, 10 US Air Force tankers, escorted by 20 F-16 fighter jets, are on their way to the Middle East.

tartare 25th October 2024 23:22

Claims of explosions being reported in Tehran by local media.
Hard to ascertain, but sounds like strikes may be starting.
Update:
Israel has confirmed strikes underway.

RAFEngO74to09 25th October 2024 23:23

Fox News USA reporting IDF attacks have started in Iran, Iraq & Syria

RAFEngO74to09 25th October 2024 23:36


tartare 26th October 2024 03:38

For those of you in the Northern hemisphere waking up... a bit more detail emerging.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-826117
Three waves, 20 targets, over 100 aircraft including F-35i.

dead_pan 26th October 2024 07:03

Interesting to find out whether the IAF aircaft actually penetrated Iranian airspace or stood off

NutLoose 26th October 2024 07:55

And on a side note, taking out Irans drone and missile production facilities, will also possibly aid Ukraine in scuppering supplies to Russia.. a win, win, all round.

ORAC 26th October 2024 10:21

This attack was well telegraphed to allow Iran to put their SAW and fighters on alert - doubtless deliberately so just to make the point how useless they are.

The attack started with their F-35i for SEAD, the only deaths the Iranians have admitted to are soldiers in a missile command post, and would have been followed by the F-15i carrying the long range ALBMs, how far they penetrated will depend on their targets and the missile range - Iran is a big country.

I am more interested to see what comes out about their routing. I know the Gulf states and Saudi said their airspace couldn’t be used - but the USA also flew in a lot of fighter support and made the point that any attack on their allies would be responded too, so there may have been a deal or they may have routed over southern Syria and Iraq.

BonnieLass 26th October 2024 10:26

Currently there are 5 USAF KC135 aircraft "patrolling" along the Iraq/Iran border, no other visible military aircraft but that doesn't mean that they are not there too. Iranian airspace has reopened to commercial traffic with flights from various international and Iranian carriers overflying Iran.

57mm 26th October 2024 18:19

Would be interesting to see the routing and also if AAR was employed.

tartare 26th October 2024 23:30

Some IAF pix of those who flew in yesterday's strikes:
Assume these were taken on return - WSO has her hair down - I would have thought hair would be up under a net or something inside helmet to avoid snagging on ejection.

WillowRun 6-3 27th October 2024 01:15

Excerpts from Wall Street Journal reporting. Map (not detailed) with this reporting shows strike against Tehran as well as southwest part of the country; could capital be struck from outside Irani airspace?
__________
[The strikes] left Iran even more exposed to further air attacks, with Israel destroying several of the country’s Russian-made S-300 batteries, according to an Israeli official.

“The message is that we don’t want an escalation but if Iran decides to escalate and attack Israel again, this means that we have increased our range of freedom of movement in the Iranian skies,” an Israeli official said.

........

The first crop of jet fighters destroyed air-defense batteries in Syria and Iraq, clearing the flight path for the second and third sorties to funnel through to Iran.

Their exact route, which hasn’t been shared by Israel, appeared to dodge airspace in Jordan after the Arab nation said it wouldn’t be part of an attack on Iran. Most of the attacks were launched from outside Iranian airspace, said Amir Aviv, a former senior Israeli military official who is often briefed by the defense establishment. Iran said Israeli planes attacked from within Iraqi airspace, around 70 miles from its border.

..... Iranian officials began privately telling Arab nations that the attack hit sites with great accuracy. In public, the regime said it led to “limited damage” and that Iran reserved the right to carry out a response at a time of its choosing. Four Iranian soldiers were killed in the attacks, Iran said.

DuncanDoenitz 27th October 2024 08:37


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11758113)
Assume these were taken on return - WSO has her hair down - I would have thought hair would be up under a net or something inside helmet to avoid snagging on ejection.

And, of course, to comply with Iranian modesty regulations. When in Rome .....

ORAC 28th October 2024 20:04

VideoBREAKING: Israeli cabinet has decided to conduct another response against Iran soon due to the earlier drone attack on Netanyahu's residence, according to Channel 13

Lonewolf_50 29th October 2024 10:46

Saw a brief article that the Iraqi government filed a formal complaint about Israel's flight/strikes using their airspace without permission.

ORAC 29th October 2024 11:34

There is a strong possibility that the Ghadir Over-the-Horizon Radar (OTHR) in Khuzestan Province, Iran has been destroyed in recent retaliatory strikes by Israel. The Ghadir OTHR is an Iranian radar system operating within the 28-30 MHz spectrum.

A check of the 29-30 MHz spectrum using an SDR in Iraq indicates that the Ghadir OTHR is no longer detectable. Additionally, analysis of Sentinel-2 imagery and other publicly available images from various sources suggests that the radar may have been disabled.

​​​​​​​

havoc 30th October 2024 22:15

Defying the U.S.: Saudi Arabia Joins Iran in Red Sea Military Drills, Signaling a New Power Shift in the Middle East!

Defying the U.S.: Saudi Arabia Joins Iran in Red Sea Military Drills, Signaling a New Power Shift in the Middle East!

In a development shaking up Middle Eastern alliances, Saudi Arabia and Iran have planned a joint military exercise in the Red Sea, raising eyebrows around the world. This proposal, originating from Saudi Arabia, has put a spotlight on the kingdom’s evolving defense strategy and growing independence from longstanding alliances, particularly with the United States.Historically, Saudi Arabia has been one of Washington’s closest allies in the region, solidified through an “oil for security” relationship that benefitted both countries. U.S. arms fueled Saudi defenses, while Saudi oil ensured stable global markets. However, recent years have strained this relationship. The U.S. has increasingly focused on “offshore balancing,” prioritizing a more hands-off approach in the Middle East. This gradual retreat has left Saudi Arabia feeling exposed, facing regional security threats that challenge the limits of U.S. commitments.

Recent moves toward regional peace have transformed alliances in the Middle East. In a surprising twist earlier this year, Saudi Arabia normalized relations with Iran—its historical rival—under Chinese mediation. This marked a turning point for Saudi strategy, emphasizing regional stability through dialogue rather than a reliance on Western military support.

Since that reconciliation, the security landscape for Saudi Arabia has noticeably improved. The kingdom’s tense border skirmishes with Yemen’s Houthi rebels have dwindled, and critical infrastructure has faced fewer threats from cross-border attacks. Now, by initiating a joint military drill with Iran, Saudi Arabia is broadcasting a powerful signal: it is shifting towards strategic independence.

By bringing Iran into joint drills, Saudi Arabia aims to send a firm message on maintaining Red Sea security. Iran’s support of the Houthis has often put it at odds with Saudi interests, but a direct partnership between the two countries in securing these waters could symbolize a new alignment. For Saudi Arabia, the focus on stabilizing the Red Sea reflects a commitment to address regional threats head-on, rather than avoid them.

The Red Sea exercises underline a broader goal as well: to demonstrate that regional powers can self-manage their own security concerns, steering away from reliance on external superpowers. Saudi Arabia’s assertive role in proposing these drills indicates it may be recalibrating its security priorities, embracing peace and cooperation over Western-backed military dominance.

This move challenges the conventional order. By aligning with Iran for a joint Red Sea exercise, Saudi Arabia underscores a shared interest in preventing non-state groups, like the Houthis, from disrupting crucial international waters. The exercise also represents a reconfiguration of the Middle Eastern security architecture, where Saudi Arabia and Iran signal their resolve to maintain the Red Sea as a conflict-free zone, aiming to rebuild international confidence in the region’s stability.

The choice of the Red Sea for these exercises is loaded with significance. As one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, the Red Sea is essential for global trade and stability. But recent tensions have added peril to these waters. Following escalations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Yemen’s Houthi rebels—closely aligned with Iran—have launched attacks on commercial vessels with Israeli destinations. This ongoing Houthi aggression has highlighted the instability that looms over the Red Sea region, forcing Saudi Arabia to take a stand.

In an increasingly multipolar world, Saudi Arabia’s actions send a strong message: the kingdom is carving a path of strategic autonomy. This joint exercise with Iran serves as a reminder that the Middle East is evolving, and long-held assumptions about alliances and rivalries are being rewritten. Will this initiative spur a lasting peace in one of the world’s most volatile regions, or will it simply mark a new chapter in the shifting sands of Middle Eastern politics?

Sources for this article include:China Military Online, china.com.cn.

The content Defying the U.S.: Saudi Arabia Joins Iran in Red Sea Military Drills, Signaling a New Power Shift in the Middle East! appears first here MagazineInternational

DogTailRed2 30th October 2024 22:26

If Saudi Arabia `is` aligning itself with Iran is it going to re-align it's military? Presumably ditching all the American kit in favour of Russian, North Korean or Chinese?

henra 31st October 2024 10:04


Originally Posted by DogTailRed2 (Post 11760320)
If Saudi Arabia `is` aligning itself with Iran is it going to re-align it's military? Presumably ditching all the American kit in favour of Russian, North Korean or Chinese?

Doubt it. Russian kit hasn't left the greatest impression as of late...
I guess they just diverify. For example they were currently interested in Rafale/more Typhoon.
Seems they are following the Indian approach.
The current situation in the Red Sea is hurting them badly and they saw that Western Military was not able to 'silence' the Houthis. They are now trying a different path.

ORAC 31st October 2024 11:18

worrying if true….

🚨 Breaking: CNN reports according to a high-ranking Iranian official that Iran 🇮🇷 will launch a massive attack on Israel 🇮🇱 within days.

Israeli sources said if Iran does so, Israel will respond by destroying Iran's nuclear sites ☢️ and oil infrastructure 🛢️

FAFO coming soon.
CNN: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...003b6lu1vnybo2

Iran to carry out "definitive and painful" response to Israeli strikes, high-ranking source tells CNN

​​​​​​​
Israel’s recent attacks on Iran will be met with a “definitive and painful” response that will likely come before the US presidential vote, a high-ranking source told CNN on Wednesday.

The remarks signal a departure from Iran’s initial attempts to downplay the severity of the strikes carried out by Israel on October 25, which marked the first time Israel has openly acknowledged striking Iranian targets.

“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the aggression of the Zionist regime will be definitive and painful,” the source, who is familiar with Iran’s deliberations, said.

Although the source did not provide an exact date for the attack, they said it “will probably take place before the day of the US presidential election.”

CNN has reached out to the Israeli military for comment on the remarks.

safetypee 31st October 2024 15:27

Why we are where we are now
 
A history of how - why we are where we are now.

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/t...ent-extremism/

A reminder to look first at ourselves (The New World and Twentieth Century) !


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