All this talk of Iran hitting Israel, carrier battle groups etc is nonsense.
The whole point of nuclear weapons is as a deterrent. No point having them if nobody knows you have them.
It's a defensive weapon!

Hiroshima and Nagasaki are joining the chat….

I don't know about that. If you were about to be hit by 10 B-2 bombers carrying bunker-buster munitions, you might think otherwise. Use it now or lose it.

Lots of things would be different if a nation possessed nukes, the Malvinas would still be under the argies control. Had Libya not given up on WMD, Gaddafi might still be around and of course Ukraine war quite possibly wouldn’t have happened. I understand the reasoning.

As far as Iran is concerned, if Trump is going to do it, then my bet would be at the end of Ramadan - so sometime before next Tuesday or Wednesday if he is really going to do it. If it goes the same way of the tariffs though, then the US attack will be on again, off again and on again and the poor old journalists inadvertently added to the latest chat group won’t know which headline to prepare.

In all seriousness, if it happens, I think it will be in the next few days.

Would the attack on Pearl Harbour have happened if the USA had nuclear weapons in 1941?

The only time nukes have been used in anger wasn’t defensive in nature.

It was a horrible calculation that had to be made but the figures at the time suggested 150k dead against probably 1 million more dead if the war continued. In that regard, it is semantics what you choose to call it but it certainly put a full stop to the war and has acted as a deterrence against further use of nuclear weapons to this day. So, maybe tactically it was an attack but strategically it was very defensive. Wise heads prevailed then though. Nowadays I worry about what is going to happen tomorrow or even later today.

The very interesting thing I read somewhere recently (I will try to find the reference) was that the Japanese were secretly attempting to open back channel war ending negotiations with the US immediately prior to the bombs being dropped. And the US knew that - having decrypted cypher messages. There was an implication (I think it might have been in the Oppenheimer biography) that atom bombing Japan would be proof of the technology working.

I don’t buy that. The technology worked as demonstrated by Trinity. The USS Indianapolis sat in port with the nuclear components onboard until dispatched only because Trinity was successful. The Japanese didn’t surrender even after two nukes, three days apart devastated their cities. They waited an additional six days after Nagasaki to surrender, the Russian declaration of war may have made the end even more obvious. I’ve seen the same reports pushed by those who believed the nukes weren’t needed as they play the role of revisionary historians.

Back to Iran, as others have pointed out, just because they may have the ability to make a few nukes now, having a workable delivery system is everything..and anyway, i have always seen nukes as a threat, or a bargaining chip, rather than anything that would actually be used.

Even the most die hard members of the IRGC know that if Iran uses a nuke on anything belonging to the USA, then its game over for them..I don't see anyone rushing to Iran's aid in that case...

To stay on topic - what are the US up to at the moment

Edit - to add the question

Is there anywhere to track what US assets are being flown into Diego Garcia?

Well, Diego Garcia is closed to non US aircraft until May 1st I believe. It could be a thinly disguised warning from Trump to Iran or it could be Trump doing what he did with the tariffs and playing 'We will/won't/will/won't attack Iran' games. If US is going to attack Iran, my money would be on early next week just after the end of Ramadan while Iran celebrates Hari Raya. It would show maximum disrespect by USA for Iran and that is something that Trump would probably get a kick out of.

You're not in the Signal chat? Good grief.

There you go ...




I should have just searched

Would the US have used them if they knew Japan could hit say, New York or Los Angeles with a retaliatory nuclear strike?
To get back on to Iran, if they already have the weapon, are they going to just hide it waiting for an attack? Why would they use it as a first strike weapon, knowing that a response would be swift and devastating?
If they have the weapon, they are going to make sure everyone knows it. If there has been a successful test, like North Korea (allegedly) we would have heard about it.
In conclusion, they don't have any sort of nuclear capability....yet.
Its possible the US has Intel that they are close. We shall see.

Didn’t the Trinity test prove that the technology worked?

It's quite a stretch to believe that the Roosevelt and then Truman Administrations would have been receptive to diplomatic overtures such as you have described, with the sounds of Tokyo Rose still reverberating in the Pacific Theater and the casualties of island- hopping still searing the public mind, right next to the Death March and Divine Wind (kamikaze).

Though I didn't read it completely, perhaps your source is Hiroshima: The World's Bomb (Andrew Rotter 2008)? The book's opening chapter(s) recount the development of aviation from its earliest and, iirc, the nexus of that development to efforts to build an atomic weapon.

Question for the class: what is the point of having stealth bombers and then telling people where you are moving them to?
Isn't their being unseen and undetected until the bombs fall part of their unique capability?

So is it just a provocation by America?

I recall during Desert Storm, that the B52 missions from Fairford were flight planned, with all the FIR crossing times displayed, even the Iraqi ones!
So the time on target times could be calculated to within a few minutes..
..A good job there wasnt FR24 and the internet in 1991!

Hoping the US has learned some recent lessons from the war on Ukraine, such as how the Russian Air Force finally started spacing out their parked aircraft, using dummies, etc.

If the place you move them to is also out of range and beyond observation, you have sent a message without significant risk to the fleet.

A U.S. official told Axios that the deployment of B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is "not disconnected" from President Trump's two-month deadline for Iran, signaling this is preparation of a military contingency plan should diplomatic efforts fail.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/27/ira...source=twitter

Iran responds to Trump's nuclear talks proposal as U.S. sends bombers to region

Iran delivered a formal written response to President Trump's letter proposing new nuclear talks and threatening consequences if a deal is not reached swiftly, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday.

Why it matters: Trump gave Iran a two-month deadline to sign a new nuclear deal or face potential military action in his letter, sent three weeks ago.

Driving the news: Iran delivered its response via the Gulf Sultanate of Oman, which duly notified the U.S., a source with knowledge of the issue confirmed to Axios.
b

• The Omanis briefed the U.S. on the messages they received from the Iranians and will deliver the Iranian letter to the White House in the coming days, the source said.
• The source did not offer details on the nature of the Iranian response. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
• Araghchi said in a news conference that Iran maintains its position that it won't negotiate directly with the Trump administration so long as Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign is in place, but is willing to hold indirect talks.

State of play: Trump and his top advisers have left the door open for talks while also using the threat of military force.
b

• In recent days, the U.S. military sent several B-2 stealth bombers to the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean in a deployment a U.S. official said was "not disconnected" from Trump's two-month deadline.
• The B-2 bombers can carry huge bunker buster bombs that would be a key element in any possible military action against Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
• A spokesperson for U.S. Strategic Command confirmed the deployment to Axios and said Stratcom "routinely conducts global operations in coordination with other combatant commands, services, and participating U.S. government agencies to deter, detect and, if necessary, defeat strategic attacks against the United States and its allies."

Catch up quick: Three weeks ago in an interview with Fox News' Maria Bartiromo, Trump revealed that he'd sent a letter to the Iranian leader proposing direct negotiations.
b

• That letter was delivered by his envoy Steve Witkoff to United Arab Emirates Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ), with MBZ's envoy Anwar Gargash traveling to Tehran to deliver it to Araghchi.
• That same week, Trump said the U.S. is "down to the final moments" with Iran. "We can't let them have a nuclear weapon. Something is going to happen very soon. I would rather have a peace deal than the other option, but the other option will solve the problem," he said....

I read that as "posturing" or "saber rattling" - are we on the same page?

Exactly so.
Also it is a shorter hop from that base to a potential target and more secure than the home base, so there is far less likelihood that that it will be announced on social media, or by discrete phone call, that they are on their way.

Trump suddenly announces he has been told that Iranian drones are being saws giant Ukraine!! Then goes on to utter threats.....

And this surprises you with Captain Oblivious.

Can somebody explain to me why the UK is paying £9Bn+ to secure an airfield in the Indian Ocean so that a rogue nation, run by a neofascist, can launch attacks on whomever they wish?

Perhaps he should listened to practically every Int Brief we would have received.

While not advocating for the Trump team, nor saying they are making the right moves, but the B-2 can significantly promote national interests in the way it is used, whether in combat or not. It appears in this case that its movements may have persuasive impact even before it drops any ordnance. I hope so.

Well, the rogue neo-fascist nation is a rather recent and hopefully very temporary development.

Painting scenarios.
As above, or... DT has been told in the strictest confidence that a reprisal attack on Iran will come from a certain direction, so the bombers could be there more as a symbolic back-up reminder.

(*Must seem like an awful waste of resources not to use them while there, though. Reminds me of how the mustered resources for use on Afghanistan were used in the subsequent attack on Saddam Hussein's Iraq.)

*PS Not for a minute advocating their actual use!

The problem that I see is that the US has been pestering Iran since the 1950s, including backing Saddam Hussein to go to war against them. The Iranians, however, are intelligent, motivated, have significant education, and a can-do attitude, which has gotten them contracts to supply weapons critical to a war fought by a former superpower.

While it sucks that Iran is selling to Russia and are also pestering several Middle East countries, I see continuing this way is like getting bogged in the mud and putting a brick on the gas pedal, digging in rather than working a way out. While one might say this applies to Iran, they live there, same as the Vietnamese the US also failed to overcome.

I presume the pestering will not stop no matter the futility of it all around.

Thank you, Global Nav. I'll chew on that for a bit.

It's always a good idea to make sure that everything works. Any deployment can become a drill and any drill can become a deployment. Practice makes perfect, after all.

It isn't like the US has a shortage of jet fuel at the moment.

https://archive.ph/N1LNQ

Iran will target Britain’s Chagos base if Trump attacks


Iran has warned that it will target British forces in the Chagos Islands if Donald Trump attacks the Middle Eastern nation.

After Mr Trump threatened military action against the regime if it did not make a deal with the US over its nuclear programme, a senior Iranian military official told The Telegraph that Tehran would strike the joint US-UK naval base on Diego Garcia in response to any US attack.

“There will be no distinction in targeting British or American forces if Iran is attacked from any base in the region or within the range of Iranian missiles,” he said on Saturday.

He added: “When the time comes, it won’t matter whether you’re an American, British, or Turkish soldier – you will be targeted if your base is used by Americans.”

Iranian state media said that Tehran would strike the Diego Garcia facility with ballistic missiles and suicide drones in retaliation for any US “hostile action against the Iranian nation”.

It warned: “Iran possesses adequate weapons for such an attack from its mainland, such as newer versions of the Khorramshahr missile that have an intermediate range, and the Shahed-136B kamikaze drone with a range of 4,000km [2,485 miles]”…..

A British government spokesman said: “We condemn these threats in the strongest terms. The UK Government continues to work with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation. The base on Diego Garcia is vital to UK and US security and plays a crucial role in maintaining regional and international security.”

Iranian state media listed the Diego Garcia base as a potential target alongside other US military locations across Asia and the Middle East, including a naval base in Bahrain close to a Royal Navy support facility…..

That would be a Roosevelt big stick, but does Trump talk softly?

Wasn't that Teddy Roosevelt? A President who was shot by a assassin, intervened to prevent any harm coming to the assassin, and then carried on with the speech which lasted 50 minutes, with an actual bullet lodged in his pectoral muscle. His main defense was a doubled 50 page speech (far more than Trump is known able to read) and a metal eyeglass case. Still, the bullet remained in President Roosevelt to the grave.

Trump, ducking from the sound of a rifle shot and the whish of the bullet, gave a fist pump as he was quickly removed from the stage and driven at high speed while counter-snipers annihilated the would-be assassin. It appears that his famous injury was not from the passing bullet, but the exposed hammer on the weapon in a waist holster worn by one of the protectors that caught his ear as he ducked, making a small nick that healed rapidly.

Such a gap between these two men, both elected President.

and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodo...1%E2%80%931909)

Reading further, he would now be labelled a radical, anti-business leftist commie socialist pig by the current GOP leadership.

But they do have some small commonalities:

and then they diverge

as Trump works to eliminate government protections for food and drugs and schools and children, not to mention Roosevelt's efforts to protect American natural resources that Trump now wishes to clear cut and ravage with mines.

He hit the nail on the head and I think the root of today's price increases and other economic troubles:

For certain long term trends are forced on companies when they deal with international trade, but for local trade and for short periods they can effectively collude to make anyone unfavorable to their desires look bad by making a hard swing on prices and blaming the current, unfavored administration for it. But now those malefactors of great wealth appear to have direct control of the three branches of government.

We needed a Teddy Roosevelt. We got a Donald Trump.

What? You are making things up or repeating same.

Trump was shot. He did not duck.

I am not fan but this is just BS

The bullets were real and a man died ....

The shooter was shot while still shooting ...

Why bother reading anything else you post?

Heh, mark your calendar. We agree! :ok:
For the entertainment value. ;)