Originally Posted by EDLB (Post 12060813)

It smells like an eerie rerun of Putins SMO. Planned as a few days bombing run Venezuela style may very well turn into an extensive meat grinding ground war with 4 digit body bags a day lasting years with Afghanistan style end result. The positive side for Iran, they figured to set up a toll booth creating 600 million a month, 2 million a ship, without even digging a channel.
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...0v3b6sw7r3m8ah

Originally Posted by safetypee (Post 12060819)

History is redefining 'Guerrilla Warfare' - Ukraine and Iran with drones; an uncertain future until the time when we can look back.
Any past lessons which might apply in this situation to combat the 'Guerrillas'.

Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 12060814)

Originally Posted by Biggus (Post 12060401)

I'm sure Iran would be happy for the Houthis to ramp up attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

It would stretch the USN into a two area deployment, put further pressure on the World economy and increase international calls for the conflict to stop.

On the down side I suppose it might galvanize European navies into deploying ships into the Red Sea for "defensive purposes" to protect shipping. Who knows, Hermer might even declare such an act to be "legal"?

None of this is exactly rocket science.

Originally Posted by fdr (Post 12060550)

Houthis have apparently lobbed "missiles" from Yemen to.... Israel. Starting to get interesting. That will answer the question on the Bab-al-Mandab being messed with.

There goes the neighbourhood.

Yemen's issues now become existential threats to KSA for certain, horn of Africa as well, and even, once again, to Oman, just like the good ol' days. Closure of the Red Sea impacts Europe, North Africa, Asia, North Asia... pretty much everyone other than Brazil and points south...

The great orator in the WH might need to have a new voice that is coherent to achieve any measure of alliance to go and pull the goat out of the stew and put it back together again. Taking out the Red Sea as an MSR is going to cause mayhem to many, more than just the gulf does.

It is probably a long shot to suggest that the WH read some of their own history when the voice goes off on Europe never supporting the USA's wars, seems that there was once this thing called 9/11, and NATO and other non NATO countries responded to support the US when Article 5 was invoked, for the only occasion since the inception of NATO. More Danish forces per capita were sent to Iraq and Afghanistan than the US did, which is not apparent in the rhetoric that vents from the WH. At the beginning of WW-2.0, the USA did not support the UK, until eventually FDR assisted through Lend-Lease, which happened to more or less bankrupt the UK later. The US entered the war when attacked by Japan, (against Japan) and then Hitler apparently channelling future presidents, declared war against the USA. Going back further, in WW-1.0, the US was late to the party, but was instrumental to the outcome, the same is true of WW-2. Mr T's bestie friend, Vlad, wants a return to the good ol' days of being Tzar, (seems to be a lot of that going around lately) and that overlooks that WW-2 got its kick off whistle due to the actions of the USSR planning to invade in coordination with Hitler, the state of Poland, while carving up more of Europe to Stalins benefit. Today, Vlad has been happily giving targeting info to Iran and presumably the Houthi's, while being graciously having sanctions removed from their oil supplies.

Reminds me of the opening lines to "Soap"... "Confused? You should be...".

India, China, Japan, and even South Korea will have great interest in what now happens, this is a direct threat to their own stability.

Regime change is on the way, the question is, in what countries.

Originally Posted by artee (Post 12060842)

Who's Hermer?

Originally Posted by petit plateau (Post 12060738)

So far I have only seen reports of the Houthis using drones and similar, i.e no ballistic missiles. That clearly is less of a magazine depth issue for the Israelis. Has anyone seen reports of them having or using ballistic missiles ?

Originally Posted by Biggus (Post 12060754)

"Extensive damage".....I think that's something of an understatement.

Originally Posted by artee (Post 12060846)

Cargo vessels are already going around the Cape. Cargo vessels are green, tankers are red.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a2bb9ef687.jpg

Originally Posted by 601 (Post 12060886)

The first recorded launch of the Burkan-2H by the Houthis was on 22 July 2017

Originally Posted by petit plateau (Post 12060913)

Thanks.

Those were used against KSA. Do they have range to reach even Eilat ? Approx 2000km.

Do the Houthis have anything ballistic with that range, and have they actually ever used them ?

Update : interceptor 'rationing' ongoing
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-891460

Originally Posted by k3k3 (Post 12061106)

I was surprised to see the US aircraft so neatly parked in box to make it easier for the Iranians to hit them. Have they forgotten about dispersals?

The US only have/had 14/15 active E-3 aircraft.

Originally Posted by charliegolf (Post 12060869)

Not buffing out. It will need speed tape as a minimum. More than 1 roll.

CG