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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 9th Apr 2021 19:15


For an army given to masking its moves, surely the worst way to disguise a potential imminent invasion of a country is by overtly preparing for it.

This is the paradox around Russia's visible buildup in its west, not far from the Ukrainian border. Were Moscow trying to reverse the military stalemate around the Donbas separatist region -- that it truncated from Ukraine in 2014 -- would it want to telegraph its moves so blatantly?
Russia's signals are obvious. Relentless social media videos show armored convoys moving towards the general border area. These led to open-source intelligence sleuths @CITeam_en spotting a congregation of likely hundreds of vehicles not far from the Russian city of Voronezh. That is still over 100 miles from Ukraine, but it is a sizeable buildup that was captured on satellite images from the Maxar technology group.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/09/e...ntl/index.html





Countdown begins 9th Apr 2021 21:29

If this goes very badly, and the ruffians win quickly with brutal force, perhaps then those that swear solely by cyber could admit they are most definitely not fit for purpose: the modern day Maginot line being true an embarrassing folly.

fitliker 9th Apr 2021 22:56

Ever wondered why the Russians are not panicking that NATO has been moving eastward so close to Russia ?

If your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush :)

NutLoose 9th Apr 2021 23:00

Anyone think it’s Putin just testing Biden’s resolve to see what he is made off? Ramp it up to see the response, which he can then use to access his future moves.

etudiant 9th Apr 2021 23:28

Russia is already under pretty comprehensive US and EU sanctions, so much so that the Russian foreign minister Lavrov noted that they are treated as an enemy.
Consequently one wonders whether they might perhaps act accordingly and reincorporate the Ukraine back into Russia.
I don't think Europe or the US are positioned to prevent it and the performance to date of the Ukrainian military has not been impressive. Perhaps that is why the Ukraine is so eager to be accepted into NATO.


Asturias56 10th Apr 2021 08:19

If Russia invades Ukraine - which has been independent for over 30 years - it'll be like the invasion of Afghanistan - a wake up call for the West, massive US rearmament & it'll end in the collapse of the Russian Government (again)

Aegis8 10th Apr 2021 08:53


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11025014)
But should war BE avoided? Russia has invaded a sovereign country. Surely it should be that countries moral obligation to do everything they can to reunite and retake their country?

You can listen to the arguments about how these people are ethnic Russians. But that doesn’t hold water. If they want to be Russian they can move to Russia. Taking the Crimea as a case in point, only 60% of the population were ethnic Russians, and only about 60-70% of those supported annexation so less than half the region wanted this.

The problem with your argument is that this is not just about ethnic Russians, it is about Russian speaking Ukrainians. They may be ethnic Russian but they are still Ukrainian or were, as they are all deemed terrorists by the Ukrainian government. So to allude to your percentages: in 2014 there were 60% ethnic Russians, 30% odd Ukrainians and the rest made of Tartars and odds and ends. Now the real number to check is that 89% were Russian speaking and it is this Russian speaking component that voted to re-unite, not just the ethnic Russians. Do you really think that Crimea would not be the same as Donbas today, if they had not re-united?

As to the invasion, check how many Ukrainian units, in Crimea, changed sides after the new, unelected government came to power in Ukraine. If only all invasions were so bloodless!

Aegis8 10th Apr 2021 08:55


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11025165)
Aegis - i 'd stay away from MH17 if I was you - the evidence is pretty damning

The evidence that is public, is damning yes. It is control of the narrative. If you are happy to assign blame with the current evidence, then that is your choice.

I will wait till all the evidence is public and make an informed decision.

Aegis8 10th Apr 2021 08:57


Originally Posted by fitliker (Post 11025371)
Ever wondered why the Russians are not panicking that NATO has been moving eastward so close to Russia ?

If your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush :)

Now that is a good one for the Saturday morning.:D

admikar 10th Apr 2021 09:28

Pledge to all of those here who are preaching of upholding international laws and protecting sovereign countries integrity: would you please write to your MP's, Prime ministers, Presidents, Kings....whatever and tell them to get Kosovo back to Serbia.
I am so interested to see how that would roll out.

Beamr 10th Apr 2021 12:01


Originally Posted by usedtobeATC (Post 11025526)
“If Russia invades Ukraine”, it will be self-defense from NATO, so that it does not happen again as it did in Yugoslavia.

You mean self defence like attacking Finland, Poland and the Baltic countries? Or more recently Chechnya? And even more recently, Ukraine. Yes, Russia DID invade Ukraine. Theres no IF in it.

etudiant 10th Apr 2021 14:18

Afaik, the problem started when the Ukraine government prohibited the use of Russian in Ukrainian schools, a clear signal that the large Russian speaking minority was unwanted.
Perhaps the responsible people should visit Canada, which successfully defused an analogous threat from their francophone Quebec based minority.

Less Hair 10th Apr 2021 14:27

This truly is the age of info wars with all this hardcore agitation and propaganda even in this innocent forum. However these phrases sound as stupid as ever and won't win any new sympathies.
Fascinating that they still feel like trying.

highflyer40 10th Apr 2021 14:30


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11025726)
Afaik, the problem started when the Ukraine government prohibited the use of Russian in Ukrainian schools, a clear signal that the large Russian speaking minority was unwanted.
Perhaps the responsible people should visit Canada, which successfully defused an analogous threat from their francophone Quebec based minority.

Born and raised in Vancouver and I would not say it was successfully defused at all. To this day there is still simmering anger on both sides. Quite a lot of Canadians would be glad to see the back of them.

etudiant 10th Apr 2021 17:33


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11025732)
Born and raised in Vancouver and I would not say it was successfully defused at all. To this day there is still simmering anger on both sides. Quite a lot of Canadians would be glad to see the back of them.

Simmering anger may be as good as it gets.
It sure is easier to live with than bombs in mail boxes, police squads all over and unending 'security restrictions'.

ORAC 12th Apr 2021 13:48

As I was saying.....

Putin is eyeing up much bigger prize than Donbas conquest in Ukraine says US General

A top US General has argued that Russia's troop buildup on Ukraine's eastern borders is a distraction and that the Kremlin is preparing for a different attack.

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said in an interview with Espresso TV that Mr Putin has his eyes set on capturing the Black Sea Coast in the south.

The former commander of the United States Army Europe explained: "The Kremlin is interested in establishing full control over the Black Sea coast, including Mariupol, Odessa and Berdyansk.

“All this movement of Russian forces is most likely a diversionary manoeuvre to strike and capture the water canal connecting Crimea to the Dnieper River. And then, it will become a springboard for further capture of the Black Sea coast."

He added that Moscow did not need to make a decisive move in the Donbas at present and preferred to use the simmering conflict as a means to further undermine Kiev.

"The Russians do not need a decisive attack on the Donbas now," he said. "The Donbas is needed to continue destabilization in the region and to inhibit Ukraine's integration with the West. The goal of the Russian Federation is to keep the situation in the region in a state of chaos."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...blem-for-putin

Crimea’s Water Crisis Is an Impossible Problem for Putin

NutLoose 12th Apr 2021 13:55


etudiant
Afaik, the problem started when the Ukraine government prohibited the use of Russian in Ukrainian schools, a clear signal that the large Russian speaking minority was unwanted.
Perhaps the responsible people should visit Canada, which successfully defused an analogous threat from their francophone Quebec based minority.
The problem started when the Ukraine agreed to destroy its nuclear weapon stockpile after assurances fom the UK and the USA that both countries would commit to protecting their borders in case of armed conflict, if the Ukraine had retained their nuclear capability or we had stood by our promises, we wouldn't be having this conversation as Russia would not have dared to invade.

https://www.dispropaganda.com/single...n-exchange-for

fitliker 12th Apr 2021 16:58

So many other agreements have broken , it could easily be a chicken and egg thread .
The good news is Ukraine just blinked . They are backtracking on previous statements made by the stand up comic and calling for dialogues.


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